I am here in the US and only hear what my husband has to say. Now, to be fair, Koh Phangan's lowest part of the year is about now. But, he says things are beyond dead. Even Thai people are not eating out, the Tesco Lotus is not as busy as usual (but of course, if there are no tourists then nobody would be shopping anyway) and people aren't out on the roads much, he feels because gas is too expensive. Now, I will be honest, he is a bit of a doomsayer, and I hear these reports every summer when I come home.

So, I ask those of you in Thailand, do you feel as if the recovery has started there? Has a corner been turned or is it all PR?

Well like you we are in US right now. But we have quite a few friends who own businesses in BKK & Puket all say it is dismal at best.

But hey how about here in the USA? We set a new record today

I was in awe of the last record of 5 Banks being shut down in one day on
June 26 2009
Today July 2nd 2009 has set a new record of 7 yes Seven banks shuttered.

Truth be told we lost 12 banks in 4 days

Hows that for green shoots?

http://www.fdic.gov/bank/individual/failed/banklist.html

This post has been edited by flying: 2009-07-03 07:06:03

No , the recovery still doesn't start.

KPG always empty in June, but so empty, believe me, never. Thai people crying everyday, maimee falang. Haad Rin specially empty, the north west (Haad Yao and surroundings) little more people.

I don't think we are near the bottom and once there, I do not expect to see 2006 levels in my lifetime.

unfortunately the simple one word answer is NO.

There is still alot of hurt to come yet.

This is a 21st Century style of World Depression and it is going to take years to recover.

These are dangerous times. Is anyone here a fan of Prof. Niall Ferguson's?

You know its funny that only yesterday some poster is all keen to arrive in Thailand to party his brains out,
so what's the downturn? The local thais are going into Buddhist lent (no booze) and the nation is preparing for the football match between Liverpool and Thailand on the 22nd, think the prime minister will be referree...

i have business interests both in Thailand and across europe, With my main interest in Thailand. I am in the process of moving the bulk from Thailand to europe, which seems to faring better than asia. Ok there is an increase in salary in europe but better contraints to protect my companies than asia. when and i say when not if, The economic climate inproves in asia i will have no hesitation in moving it back.

This post has been edited by cyborg22: 2009-07-03 12:44:30

We are making a local BKK move into another condo. Previously 65K a month which I could not even think about at that price. Now discounted to 35K! The glut of condos in the Sukhimvit area is growing with hundreds more coming on line by 2011.

Spoke with the Farang moving company rep. Told me his company estimates two years of great business as they continue to move dozens of corporate type families out of Thailand each month.

Given the global economic situation, the literally "O" investment capital entering the Kingdom
due to that situation and the preception of continued political instability I see no "Green Shoots" here.


This post has been edited by tpthai2: 2009-07-03 16:16:38

It's only getting worse....

Datsun.
It will get very much worse across Asia and i fear Thailand will be hit the worst.
In some respects some of you will benefit, Moreso the ones that have retired mainly due to the exchange rate. which is already improving albeit very slowly.

I hope I'm allowed to give my opinion SBK, not being in Thailand ?

I'm afraid there is not much good news at the horizon.

Western tourism

Thailand tourism, and thus Koh Phangan/Samui/Tao also, is for a large part depending on Western tourists (apart from the 60% -total- inbound tourists from South and East Asia) from Europe, OZ/NZ and Northern America.

In Europe the unemployment percentages are rising, next to those from the USA.
The unemployment rate in the USA is close to 10% now (9.7%) -14.7 million unemployed in June- and Europe 9.5% (16 EU countries) with some smaller countries even much higher. Spain is in a very bad situation with an unemployment rate of a staggering 18.7%, the highest in Europe, whilst the lowest unemployment is in The Netherlands with 3.2% (in May). Germany is at 7.7%.

Those are the official numbers. Un-officially the number is much higher. Several EU countries fear that in 2010 the largest ''dip'' in unemployment will be seen.

It's obvious that tourism to long distance destinations like Thailand will be hit severely. The tourists that do go (at the moment) will stay away for a shorter period to closer-by destinations and spend less money, take their car instead of flying to long distances or even stay home and make day-trips.

AsiaPacific tourism

I noticed the TAT reports from their visit to China and other countries and their optimistic expectations that tourism to Thailand in 2010 will rise to 14+ million....

I do not share their optimistic views and I'm afraid that that is pure bluff/big talk and not based upon reality. WHY they do that is beyond me but I suspect it has to do with their own positions and high paid salaries....would they publish the cold reality they would probably be sacked right away and have their job replaced by another heel-licking official...

The economical situation in China, S Korea, Japan, Taiwan, Hong Kong and Singapore - the countries that deliver a large proportion of the richer Thai inbound tourists- is in a bad shape also and will -thus- influence Thai inbound tourism also.

The same (although a little better) situation for the Pacific and Australia and New Zealand in particular.
But both Goldman Sachs and JP Morgan warned that the unemployment rate in OZ would rise to "at least" 9 percent by the end of 2010.

All this means that the worldwide tourism industry, -an expenditure for people, not absolutely necessary to stay alive for most- will suffer a great deal.

Being a little familiar with your situation I'm really -really- afraid I can't give you any positive foresight for the next 6-12 months or even beyond that which would improve the inbound tourism situation for Thailand and Koh Phangan in particular.

But, I hope for you and Thailand/Phangan that others are able to ""whip"" me and prove me wrong!

The latest report in the USA, just now:

Labor report: U.S. unemployment on the rise

http://www.examiner.com/x-12352-White-Hous...ent-on-the-rise

EU situation:

http://www.google.com/hostednews/ap/articl...WlMeqQD9967I5G0

NOTE:

A look at economic developments around the globe

BRUSSELS — Unemployment in the 16 countries that use the euro spiked to a 10-year high in May, with more than 15 million people out of work. The seasonally-adjusted unemployment rate for the euro zone in May rose to 9.5 percent of the work force from 9.3 percent in April. The May figure is the highest since May 1999.

http://www.google.com/hostednews/ap/articl...Tb5UDwD996F33G0

LaoPo

This post has been edited by LaoPo: 2009-07-03 22:42:38

I can notice, most folks in here don't realise what's going on in the rest of the world . They will wake up soon.
I want to be out of the country when PVV ( Party for Freedom ) comes on power.

This post has been edited by Datsun240Z: 2009-07-03 22:30:41

thailand depends way to much on tourist's money. they should really move away from that, but it is not going to happen with the corruption within the government from past and probably in the future too. In addition, the common people themselves must change in dishonest act and blah blah. that not going to happened, "this is thailand"

here is terrible in the States, people looking for jobs...sending out resume ...there just not enough jobs for people. and company become more tight ass.

I think you have hit the nail on the head.

I don't think we will be able to run the same businesses and generate the income we did. There has been a seismic shift and whilst soime will adjust and prosper, many others won't and they will be still going under for a long time to come.

Another consideration is whether people will actually invest again. Looking at the last 5 years, would you invest now if you expected anothe coupler of coups, closed borders and / or airports, the utter level of corruption at all levels and the political mess Thailand is in ? I wouldn't for sure. Then finally you have to think about the issue of succession. It is a no brainer if you ask me unless you have a real need to invest in Thailand.