topfield Posted January 25, 2007 Share Posted January 25, 2007 As anticipated and totally unannounced the BOT is no longer supporting the baht at 36 This has not been made public but the rates offered for the dollar and thus all currencies have fallen steadily today . The BOT has lowered their support and allowed the baht to rise steadily in five satang increments. and it has now reached 35.70 . Whether they will draw a new line in the sand at this rate or allow the rate to increase steadily later today I dont know but I am not waiting to find out but am now going out to buy baht before it reaches its true market rate of 34.80 . Update to follow later in the day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Simmo Posted January 25, 2007 Share Posted January 25, 2007 Ouch Currency Converter (Bookmark it!): http://www.thaivisa.com/currency-converter.0.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Losangels Posted January 25, 2007 Share Posted January 25, 2007 I suspect BOT can no longer keep Baht above 36/dollar, therefore allowing the Baht to appreciate. How much longer depends on what new measures the finance minstry and the governor of BOT can come up with. The current 30 percent witholding is not helping the Baht much Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
topfield Posted January 25, 2007 Author Share Posted January 25, 2007 Ouch Update : Pound sterling down from 71 to 69.5 or even less.(APPROX) To show the frantic nature of whats been going on at the Thai banks see below the times one major bank revised their rates this morning . Five rate revisions in a morning is quite something. January 25, 2007 14:44 Unit: Thai Baht 08:30 09:34 11:58 12:36 13:17 A word of advice : Too late now to use the N/W card to get their posted rate of 71 but try it if you like. I sincerely hope many Thaivisa readers saw my numerous earlier postings advising they buy baht. It was neither a speculation or a gamble but bound to happen sooner than later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ashacat Posted January 25, 2007 Share Posted January 25, 2007 67.2 Baht to the quid!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
topfield Posted January 25, 2007 Author Share Posted January 25, 2007 As anticipated and totally unannounced the BOT is no longer supporting the baht at 36This has not been made public but the rates offered for the dollar and thus all currencies have fallen steadily today . The BOT has lowered their support and allowed the baht to rise steadily in five satang increments. and it has now reached 35.70 . Whether they will draw a new line in the sand at this rate or allow the rate to increase steadily later today I dont know but I am not waiting to find out but am now going out to buy baht before it reaches its true market rate of 34.80 . Update to follow later in the day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
topfield Posted January 25, 2007 Author Share Posted January 25, 2007 My posting on this topic a few days ago : the writing was already on the wall ! "Seems that you are like many other expats in the know are worried that the one and one haf baht gift on every pound we exchange in Thailand courtesy K.Tarisa and MR Tevakun could stop at any moment. I think you are right to worry, mind you when yesterday eve the pound spiked up to 1.99 you could have got over 70 baht to the pound without Tarisa's gift ! Yes we should all be making hay while the sun shines as its only a matter of time before this "subsidy" we all enjoy is withdrawn." Well, now it has been withdrawn ! No mention yet by the BKK Post or the Nation of this change of policy but by this evening they will surely find out ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fxm88 Posted January 25, 2007 Share Posted January 25, 2007 Might you consider confining all this speculation about the baht to a single thread? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dave111223 Posted January 25, 2007 Share Posted January 25, 2007 Baht dropped 2 points with 1 browser refresh. After reading this thread i looked up the exchange on Yahoo, and it was like 35.8, however i noticed it odd that the ask price was only at 34.2, after refreshing the page the rate had suddenly dropped to 34 What a bummer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JimmyGreaves Posted January 25, 2007 Share Posted January 25, 2007 Pound Nose Dives! 67.10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
topfield Posted January 25, 2007 Author Share Posted January 25, 2007 Pound Nose Dives! 67.10 I should report that late afternoon Bloomberg and CNBC have been showing the baht at 35.75 in several sharp spikes which would indicate the BOT entering the market again at a new lower intervention rate of 35.75. We have to wait and see if this was just a blip (as Nigel Lawson used to say) or a policy decision. If it is a policy decision, the pound should be trading around the 70 mark. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlackArtemis Posted January 25, 2007 Share Posted January 25, 2007 awesome I had to wait one more day for some $ to clear, that cost me 2000 baht :/ Heh, I guess using USD for a big down payment is gonna be removed from my plans for quite awhile Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PeaceBlondie Posted January 25, 2007 Share Posted January 25, 2007 Yahoo Financial is now saying the rate is exactly 34.00 to one dollar. Earlier in this thread, I doubted that it was happening, but there you have it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
samran Posted January 25, 2007 Share Posted January 25, 2007 oanda says 35.15 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
george Posted January 25, 2007 Share Posted January 25, 2007 Thaivisa Currency Converter (Bookmark it!): http://www.thaivisa.com/currency-converter.0.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
britmaveric Posted January 25, 2007 Share Posted January 25, 2007 BHT Weakening rapidly again, fk it, just peg it - thats what they really want to do anyways. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meerkat Posted January 25, 2007 Share Posted January 25, 2007 BHT Weakening rapidly again, fk it, just peg it - thats what they really want to do anyways. You might actually be on to something here, if only for the BOT to try and save face over this sorry issue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cclub75 Posted January 25, 2007 Share Posted January 25, 2007 BHT Weakening rapidly again, fk it, just peg it - thats what they really want to do anyways. Very unlikely, due to : -the economy of Thailand -and the current political situation I mean : China can peg. Japan can undervalue the Yen, on a massive scale. That's the name of the game in Asia since a few years : everything for export, with weak currencies. But Thailand... Basically, it's a trap. They still want to promote FDI, exports, open economy, bla bla (see the speech of PM). A peg decision would be a final blow. However, I guess tomorrow, we should have "something" coming up. Tarisa was very clear in her explainations : mid december, they have decided in panic mode, to put capital control. Because we were heading toward 35. Tarisa said the bank had to act when the baht came ``precariously close to breaking the 35 mark'' against the dollar When the Thai currency closed at 35.09 on Friday Dec. 15, Tarisa instructed her team to keep working all weekend so she could announce an effective policy on Monday Dec. 18. She would have preferred to unveil details ahead of a weekend to give investors time to digest the measures, but the baht had moved to a ``precarious'' level. ``We did not have the luxury of waiting for another weekend,'' she said. http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=new...id=aXJE5EgfTlEM So, unless they don't care about the very little credibility they still have... now that we have reached 34, they must do something. Else. The problem is : what ? I bet 20 THB on some kind of announcement tomorrow. Fasten your seatbelt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
george Posted January 25, 2007 Share Posted January 25, 2007 Baht hits 34 to the dollar in offshore trading BANGKOK: -- Buoyed by the yuan's new high yesterday, the baht surged to 34 to the US dollar in the offshore market, underlining the futility of the central bank's drastic measures to rein in baht speculation. Onshore, the baht ran up to Bt35.75, forcing the Bank of Thailand (BOT) to enter the market with baht sales to sap the unit's upward momentum. Traders said dollar sales and the yuan's advances were both behind the rapid appreciation of the baht. Despite the BOT's intervention to stabilise the baht, analysts asked whether now was the time for the authority to revise its policy to stem capital inflows. The baht opened at 35.86, then sky-rocketed for the first time since the central bank introduced its draconian capital controls on December 19. BOT Governor Tarisa Watana-gase said the offshore baht's dazzling performance had a psychological spill-over effect on the onshore market, despite their separation. A commercial bank dealer said the baht shot up without looking back after piercing the technical resistance level of Bt35.90. Some investors, who had bought greenbacks at Bt36 expecting the baht to weaken further, due to the domestic political situation, dumped their dollars to cut their losses. Exporters also kept cashing in their dollars, while importers stayed on the sidelines thinking the baht would gain some more. "The market earlier did not think the baht would break 35.90. When it went through that level, it climbed up quickly and reached its strongest point at 35.75/35.78 in the early afternoon," the dealer said. The BOT appeared to supervise the market via primary dealers when a big lot of dollar buying went through. The baht then settled at a more sustainable level of 35.75. A Siam Commercial Bank dealer believes the BOT did initiate market operations, while the baht was just riding the regional market trend. The yuan hit 7.7681 to the dollar, its highest point since its revaluation in July 2005. The yen was also stronger at 120.21 to the dollar after a European Central Bank meeting remarked that the Japanese currency had been too feeble for too long. The yen's slump is being rumoured to be a possible topic at the Group of 7 meeting next month. Then the market sold the dollar to seal in profits. A BankThai dealer said the baht had added value sharply over the past few days, particularly in the offshore market. He said the market was waiting for the central bank to relax its withholding measure by exempting the foreign borrowings of local companies. Thus, there was a pick-up in demand for the baht. Standard Chartered Bank (Thai) economist Usara Wilaipich said the side effects from the central bank's capital-reserve requirement had distorted the market more than the central bank had expected, while its objective of stabilising the baht had bumped into an "impact limit". She pointed to the one-sided effect of the separation of non-resident accounts for stock trading from normal non-resident accounts. This has dried up offshore baht liquidity, as foreigners sought baht to pay for stock trades. Another side effect is the higher cost of foreign borrowings by local companies. "While there are these side effects, the objective of the central bank to stabilise the baht has reached the impact limit that can be effective at a certain level," she said. The BOT will eventually resign itself to diluting the measure, as demanded by the current market situation, she said, adding that the central bank would then rely on monetary policy to squelch baht speculation. An investment banker said if the central bank's target was the speculators who were intent on making money from appreciating Asian currencies, it could simply have fixed the baht rate at 36 for all incoming and outgoing baht and eliminated the currency gain from the equation. "This would have had the effect of allowing the free flow of money without all the negative side effects of this 30-per-cent rule, including that one-day plunge in the market, which had to have crushed local investors," he said. A recent Phatra Securities report questioned the effectiveness of the capital-control policy. "The authorities' attempts to stabilise or weaken the baht may have only a limited impact, because the underlying cause of the baht's strength, in our view, is that Thailand is exporting too much. That is, Thailand cannot find ways to use the foreign exchange it earns," said the report. The government should urgently focus on reviving both private and public investment. The report said doing so would promote growth in the long term and raise demand for imports to bring about a market equilibrium that calls for a weaker baht. Chulalongkorn University economics lecturer Sompop Manarungsan said if the central bank scrapped the capital-control measure, the net effect would be positive. The benefits from the measure are outweighed by the damage to the capital market. -- The Nation 2007-01-26 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
britmaveric Posted January 25, 2007 Share Posted January 25, 2007 An investment banker said if the central bank's target was the speculators who were intent on making money from appreciating Asian currencies, it could simply have fixed the baht rate at 36 for all incoming and outgoing baht and eliminated the currency gain from the equation. Interesting, perhaps this is what they will do??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
topfield Posted January 25, 2007 Author Share Posted January 25, 2007 As anticipated and totally unannounced the BOT is no longer supporting the baht at 36This has not been made public but the rates offered for the dollar and thus all currencies have fallen steadily today . The BOT has lowered their support and allowed the baht to rise steadily in five satang increments. and it has now reached 35.70 . Whether they will draw a new line in the sand at this rate or allow the rate to increase steadily later today I dont know but I am not waiting to find out but am now going out to buy baht before it reaches its true market rate of 34.80 . Update to follow later in the day At around 4pm the BOT intervened again at 35.75 and it had the desired effect at change offices in Bangkok (Pratunam ) as at 4.30pm they were offering 70.20 for fifty pound notes at 4.30 pm. Have to wait until 8 am tomorrow to know whether the pound in Bangkok will trade at 70 or at 67 !! Will you be able to sleep tonight ? .......this is exciting ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
britmaveric Posted January 25, 2007 Share Posted January 25, 2007 Back over 35 again..... hmmmm back to 36???? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Conners Posted January 25, 2007 Share Posted January 25, 2007 It's a fantasy world, there are no way the baht is worth that kind of real money. It'll come crashing down some day, for sure! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bangkapiboy Posted January 25, 2007 Share Posted January 25, 2007 Jeez how much worse can it get for Americans! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
britmaveric Posted January 25, 2007 Share Posted January 25, 2007 Back up to 34.25 It would be interesting to know who these speculators are. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
h90 Posted January 25, 2007 Share Posted January 25, 2007 I have a lot depts in euro and $$$ maybe transfer money now or wait or if wait loos? difficult situation we import a lot and sell with low profit, any change can be a good profit or loosing a lot money Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sanget Posted January 25, 2007 Share Posted January 25, 2007 Back up to 34.25 It would be interesting to know who these speculators are. Now the $ at 34.028. I can not afford to go to Thailand any more. I wonder how many others will Follow (in other words - travel elsewhere? It was not that long ago when I was there and the $ = 41 Baht Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LPCustom69 Posted January 25, 2007 Share Posted January 25, 2007 Would not be surprised if one of them used to be the PM. Back up to 34.25 It would be interesting to know who these speculators are. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
britmaveric Posted January 25, 2007 Share Posted January 25, 2007 Not much one can do - guess we will see tomorrow what the powers at be, do. Peg, buy, or do nothing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PJRay Posted January 25, 2007 Share Posted January 25, 2007 Jeez how much worse can it get for Americans! Well, now that I'm living here on a $U.S. pension...I'm sure it will get much worse. This sucks. Murphy's Law... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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