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[robint]

what a hysterical bunch

you have all failed and missed the point.  if a lethal strain of bird flu were to break out here, then kya bye bye. its as simple as that.  Furthermore there would be an instant quarantine around the entire country. no travel outside the country allowed until you were declared pox free.  so in effect you and everyone else would be a hostage to the medical realities.

we have regular outbreaks of colds and flu here and you may have noticed that everyone pretty much catches whats going around to a greater or lesser extent. THERE is NO escape.  the viruse is airborn.  I have noticed this particularly in my village, where the houses are all spread quite widely apart.  everyone gets a dose specially when the rains come

very strange.

[Prakanong]

robint, on 2007-03-14 17:36:49, said:

what a hysterical bunch

you have all failed and missed the point.  if a lethal strain of bird flu were to break out here, then kya bye bye. its as simple as that.  Furthermore there would be an instant quarantine around the entire country. no travel outside the country allowed until you were declared pox free.  so in effect you and everyone else would be a hostage to the medical realities.

we have regular outbreaks of colds and flu here and you may have noticed that everyone pretty much catches whats going around to a greater or lesser extent. THERE is NO escape.  the viruse is airborn.  I have noticed this particularly in my village, where the houses are all spread quite widely apart.  everyone gets a dose specially when the rains come

very strange.

I doubt a travel ban would be immediate on a break out of a mutated flu than can be passed human to human but the flights that can go until a ban might be full!

Complete travel bans are not in the first stage of ractions but are a real possiblity depending on the severity of the breakout.

Of course first sign of a confrimed break out it would only be the stupid traveller not postponing their trip to see if its isolated to a certain area or country wide.

Many companies would have a travl ban for their employee's immediately - I know its part of our plan as well as anti viral and vaccine distribution

[IMChris]

robint, on 2007-03-14 16:36:49, said:

what a hysterical bunch

you have all failed and missed the point. if a lethal strain of bird flu were to break out here, then kya bye bye. its as simple as that. Furthermore there would be an instant quarantine around the entire country. no travel outside the country allowed until you were declared pox free. so in effect you and everyone else would be a hostage to the medical realities.

we have regular outbreaks of colds and flu here and you may have noticed that everyone pretty much catches whats going around to a greater or lesser extent. THERE is NO escape. the viruse is airborn. I have noticed this particularly in my village, where the houses are all spread quite widely apart. everyone gets a dose specially when the rains come

very strange.

SAY WHAT ????  This Virus does not Fly on it's own. It has to ride on something to get to you. IE: your hands someone elses hands, sneezing in your face, picking up the Kid so on and so on. If this was the case everybody in the world would be infected. They said this about the AIDS virus long ago. I also remember when they said you could catch Cancer by carring for the PT. Yes there is a real danger and some of you think only people who have money to burn should get the Vacine.  Since this is a global problem it should be treated as a global problem with all goverments chipping in for the Vacines. It's cheaper to Vacinate then it is to care for them in the hospital.

[ChiangMaiAmerican]

IMChris, on 2007-03-14 17:56:14, said:

robint, on 2007-03-14 16:36:49, said:

what a hysterical bunch

you have all failed and missed the point. if a lethal strain of bird flu were to break out here, then kya bye bye. its as simple as that. Furthermore there would be an instant quarantine around the entire country. no travel outside the country allowed until you were declared pox free. so in effect you and everyone else would be a hostage to the medical realities.

we have regular outbreaks of colds and flu here and you may have noticed that everyone pretty much catches whats going around to a greater or lesser extent. THERE is NO escape. the viruse is airborn. I have noticed this particularly in my village, where the houses are all spread quite widely apart. everyone gets a dose specially when the rains come

very strange.

SAY WHAT ????  This Virus does not Fly on it's own. It has to ride on something to get to you. IE: your hands someone elses hands, sneezing in your face, picking up the Kid so on and so on. If this was the case everybody in the world would be infected. They said this about the AIDS virus long ago. I also remember when they said you could catch Cancer by carring for the PT. Yes there is a real danger and some of you think only people who have money to burn should get the Vacine.  Since this is a global problem it should be treated as a global problem with all goverments chipping in for the Vacines. It's cheaper to Vacinate then it is to care for them in the hospital.

The virus has and can ride on migratory birds. There is no reason to believe a human to human variant cannot also be contracted by the original host. The epidimiologists' models have it moving world wide via air travel in a short span unless by some chance it is halted before it gets to a major population center. During the asymptomatic phase it is still contagious and the victim might not even know they have it. Someone sneezing in the same room can put enough droplets in the air to transmit the virus even if you aren't right next to the person. It doesn't necessarily have to be in your face though the transmission rates should be higher in that instance. As in HIV, a strong immune system plays a bog role in whether an individual contacts the disease or not.

And as I posted in another thread,

"Presently there isn't the capacity to make enough vaccine for the entire world much less provide it for free. The WHO had plans drawn to attempt to limit a pandemic in the early stages. Neither Thailand nor any other country is excluded. The Thai official's remarks were uncalled for. Had he been a physician in a developed country his license might on the line for such remarks. He certainly would have been denounced by his peers."

Edited by ChiangMaiAmerican, 2007-03-14 18:32:26.

[mumbu]

Whatever "good doctor" Suwit said, should be compared with a proposal made by Thaksin some time ago (when he was still the prime-minister). He suggested to provide incentives to big Pharmas to build a flu vaccine factory in Thailand. He also suggested to use Thailand as a hub to distribute vaccine among neigboring countries. Obviously, after default on anti-viral drugs patents by the current rulers in Thailand, such a proposal is no longer an option. Do you see the difference in the approaches?

[Prakanong]

mumbu, on 2007-03-15 09:34:26, said:

Whatever "good doctor" Suwit said, should be compared with a proposal made by Thaksin some time ago (when he was still the prime-minister). He suggested to provide incentives to big Pharmas to build a flu vaccine factory in Thailand. He also suggested to use Thailand as a hub to distribute vaccine among neigboring countries. Obviously, after default on anti-viral drugs patents by the current rulers in Thailand, such a proposal is no longer an option. Do you see the difference in the approaches?

It was already decided at that time that one big vaccine facility was going to be in Singapore anyway.

There is actually a shortage of flu vaccine facilities with some being expanded and companies buying up capacity.

[drummer]

I wonder if anyone could source the ministers comments directly??  This seems to be so strange!  VERY VERY un-Thai thing to say!  And comelptely useless to boot! -Why say something un-Thai if it is also useless!?!  This would lead to a MAJOR loss of face for the guy,  whether he had backing or not.  So very direct, as well.

I wonder if Big Pharmaceutical's long arms have anything to do with this?  The press is hardly uninfluenced (look at the press reports on Global Warming,  for example)  Trying to hit Thailand's tourist economy?

[robint]

ChiangMaiAmerican, on 2007-03-14 18:07:44, said:

IMChris, on 2007-03-14 17:56:14, said:

robint, on 2007-03-14 16:36:49, said:

what a hysterical bunch

you have all failed and missed the point. if a lethal strain of bird flu were to break out here, then kya bye bye. its as simple as that. Furthermore there would be an instant quarantine around the entire country. no travel outside the country allowed until you were declared pox free. so in effect you and everyone else would be a hostage to the medical realities.

we have regular outbreaks of colds and flu here and you may have noticed that everyone pretty much catches whats going around to a greater or lesser extent. THERE is NO escape. the viruse is airborn. I have noticed this particularly in my village, where the houses are all spread quite widely apart. everyone gets a dose specially when the rains come

very strange.

SAY WHAT ????  This Virus does not Fly on it's own. It has to ride on something to get to you. IE: your hands someone elses hands, sneezing in your face, picking up the Kid so on and so on. If this was the case everybody in the world would be infected. They said this about the AIDS virus long ago. I also remember when they said you could catch Cancer by carring for the PT. Yes there is a real danger and some of you think only people who have money to burn should get the Vacine.  Since this is a global problem it should be treated as a global problem with all goverments chipping in for the Vacines. It's cheaper to Vacinate then it is to care for them in the hospital.

The virus has and can ride on migratory birds. There is no reason to believe a human to human variant cannot also be contracted by the original host. The epidimiologists' models have it moving world wide via air travel in a short span unless by some chance it is halted before it gets to a major population center. During the asymptomatic phase it is still contagious and the victim might not even know they have it. Someone sneezing in the same room can put enough droplets in the air to transmit the virus even if you aren't right next to the person. It doesn't necessarily have to be in your face though the transmission rates should be higher in that instance. As in HIV, a strong immune system plays a bog role in whether an individual contacts the disease or not.

And as I posted in another thread,

"Presently there isn't the capacity to make enough vaccine for the entire world much less provide it for free. The WHO had plans drawn to attempt to limit a pandemic in the early stages. Neither Thailand nor any other country is excluded. The Thai official's remarks were uncalled for. Had he been a physician in a developed country his license might on the line for such remarks. He certainly would have been denounced by his peers."

well said and put in a knowledgeable fashion, unlike some dumb comments

FLU IS AIRBORN (unlike aids which must be physically carried thank G not by mosquitoes)

it floats around for considerable distance as micro droplets in the air.  the first signs of the infectious phase are an uncontrollable sneezing which is specially triggered by the viruse so that it can spread easily.  the facts about flu are terrifying - do your homework

[Laulen]

I doubt that there is any country in the world that could 'innoculate' itself completely from this airbourne disease spread by the wild avian community.

Watchful vigilance is probably the best course of action, with stockpiles of vaccines for 'essential' workers, such as those working in health.

[xbusman]

This is a horrific apocalyptic possibility, H5N1 mutating into a form easily transmitted between humans. If indeed it can and does happen, we will all be in the middle of one of the defining events of humans history. Hostages, vaccines, borders, and transport will all become highly irrelevant in the scramble to survive. Countries will slam their borders shut in hours after confirmation, enforcing the barrier by extreme force if required. I have seen the plans, they will not be worried about the niceties of international convention.

This virus has been resiliant and persistant since discovered in Hong Kong in 1997. As yet, it has made some small changes but hasnt found the key to our genetic lock yet. Perhaps it never will. It is a subject in the medical world of immense importance and has many virologists simply terrified. Making bizarre statements like this might simply be a result of non-political scientific type venting his frustration at such a terrifying prospect.

[Gravelrash]

I can just see GWB giving a live newsfeed from a bar in Pattaya with a big banner saying 'mission accomplished' behind him
[/quote]


Good imagary

[A_Traveller]

drummer, on 2007-03-15 12:48:12, said:

I wonder if anyone could source the ministers comments directly??  This seems to be so strange!  VERY VERY un-Thai thing to say!  And comelptely useless to boot! -Why say something un-Thai if it is also useless!?!  This would lead to a MAJOR loss of face for the guy,  whether he had backing or not.  So very direct, as well.

I wonder if Big Pharmaceutical's long arms have anything to do with this?  The press is hardly uninfluenced (look at the press reports on Global Warming,  for example)  Trying to hit Thailand's tourist economy?

This is a consolidated repost from earlier in the thread:-

It should be remembered that this gentlemen is part of the bureaucracy [he is not the Minister of Health] and has been in office for some time, he's not part of the new junta.

Further in his speech {the 'hostage' element was apparently an 'in corridor' comment} to the WHO in Geneva in January, he said :- "The pandemic will definitely occur in developing countries, not developed countries. But we are sending our virus (samples) to the rich countries to produce anti-virals and vaccines....and when pandemic occurs, they survive and we die,.... It is unfair to let the poor die and the rich survive..". He described the matter as a "national security issue" and "We are not opposing the sharing of information and virus, but on the condition that every country will have equal opportunity to get access to vaccine and anti-virals if such a pandemic occurs.".

This speech was in a forum discussing the system, designed by the WHO for flu viruses which are isolated in a country and analysed to increasing levels of sophistication by a national lab, regional lab, and 1 of 4 WHO Influenza Collaborating Centers in Tokyo, Melbourne, London, and the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention in Atlanta. This system has run on effectively goodwill for some 50 years but is coming under increasing strain over the twin concerns of intellectual property rights and vaccine access.

I have already suggested that the comment was driven by the concern that he had already expressed in his speech as to access to the vaccines at a critical time. Perhaps a better turn of phrase would have been 'What are they going to do if we have x thousand of their nationals in our borders and major flight restrictions are being put in place.'. I know there was some minor chatter about this at the time but it has only gained traction via the Wall Street Journal after the Thai authorities took their position re HIV/AIDS medicines.

A Reuters report re the speech itself:-

http://today.reuters...;archived=False

Regards