2290 replies to this topic
Posted 2007-09-24 06:00:16
 geriatrickid, on 2007-09-24 02:57:24, said:
Maybe I'm too cyncial but this is coming at a time when China is flexing its might and causing the west some concern. I have a hunch the little gnomes from China and the USA & EU are working in the background getting ready for a proxy tussle.
The Chinese support the junta and aren't going to let it fall anytime soon. I really do hope this situation stays contained because China on the interventionist path isn't good news for anyone in SE Asia. Vietnam and India have had to defend themselves in the past from this lurking greedy giant and I wouldn't be too surprised to see china make a land grab. This coming so close to the Olympics is going to be real brinkmanship with the west pushing the envelope trying to take advantage of the fact that china doesn't want to create waves before it takes the spotlight on the world stage. As long as the junta can count on Chinese support, they will slaughter whoever gets in its way. And if the end is inevitable, look for the junta to follow the lead of the khmer rouge when it comes to silencing the opposition. It took Vietnam to stop the madness in Cambodia. Would Thailand be prepared to intervene to protect its borders? It might have no choice since Thailand couldn't handle a massive influx of refugees. The threat of disease in itself would overwhelm the MOPH. For Thailand's sake, there better not be a civil uprising, as the Thai economy and tourist trade could not withstand a war scenario next door coupled with problems in the Thai south.
Geriatric kid, you're not too old to make good sense.
I don't see how China can walk the high wire here in light of the worldwide attention the world Olympics will focus on them. I think they might have to give up support for the Junta. Actually, they having nothing real to gain by supporting the Junta and I think they will sacrifice them to the dogs of global opinion.
Posted 2007-09-24 09:43:09
I think one factor that will maybe influence how this will pan out is media coverage. Myanmar is traditionaly a very secretive nation. We've all seen digital pictures and "shaky cam" mobile phone videos pop up on the internet, and if anything does happen, word will be out within the hour. This is a huge difference when compaired to the events of 1988, when there was no local internet service, and the only camera crew in a position to record footage (a japanese NHK group) refuse to release anything due to damaging relations.....
Posted 2007-09-24 10:21:15
I really don't see this ending without a major conflict. The country, with it's ethnic groups, has always been fragile to begin with. It still has a lot of armed groups who can wreak havoc.
Monks are very powerful people and very difficult to deal with (for a gov't). The military are equally as powerful, but in a very different way. Difficult to see any winners in the short term.
In spite of my pessimissm, I hope only for the best for the people of that lovely country.
Posted 2007-09-24 11:01:43
Monks’ Protest Is Challenging Burmese Junta
By SETH MYDANS
Published: September 24, 2007
A reported 10,000 monks filled the main city of Yangon on Sunday in the rain.
Reuters
Quote BANGKOK, Monday, Sept. 24 — The largest street protests in two decades against Myanmar’s military rulers gained momentum Sunday as thousands of onlookers cheered huge columns of Buddhist monks and shouted support for the detained pro-democracy leader Daw Aung San Suu Kyi.
Winding for a sixth day through rainy streets, the protest swelled to 10,000 monks in the main city of Yangon, formerly Rangoon, according to witnesses and other accounts relayed from the closed country, including some clandestinely shot videos.
It came one day after a group of several hundred monks paid respects to Mrs. Aung San Suu Kyi at the gate of her home, the first time she has been seen in public in more than four years.
snip
one thing is for sure , images make a difference ...............................................
Posted 2007-09-24 11:21:26
I'm not sure the junta would convince enough officers to follow orders to crack down on protesters. Then the soldiers might simply refuse to shoot.
Posted 2007-09-24 11:52:37
Diplomat: Myanmar junta shows restraint despite growing protests because of China's pressure
24.09.2007 05:55:20
Quote YANGON, Myanmar (AP) - The Myanmar junta is showing unexpected restraint in the face of the country's biggest protests in two decades because of pressure from its key trading partner China, an Southeast Asian diplomat said Monday.
snip
The increasingly confrontational tone of the anti-government protesters raised both expectations of possible political change and fear that the military might forcefully stamp out the demonstrations, as it did in 1988, when it suppressed a democratic uprising and killed thousands of people.
A Southeast Asian diplomat, speaking on condition anonymity citing protocol, said the regime is under pressure from China to avoid a crackdown just as its larger neighbor has pressured it to speed up other democratic changes.
«The Myanmar government is tolerating the protesters and not taking any action against the monks because of pressure from China,» the diplomat told The Associated Press. «Beijing is to host the next summer's Olympic Games. Everyone knows that China is the major supporter of the junta so if government takes any action it will affect the image of China.
China, which is counting on Myanmar's vast oil and gas reserves to fuel its booming economy, earlier this year blocked a U.N. Security Council criticizing Myanmar's rights record saying it was not the right forum.
But at the same time, it has employed quiet diplomacy and subtle public pressure on the regime, urging it to move toward inclusive democracy and speed up the process of dialogue and reform.
snip
Edited by Mid, 2007-09-24 11:53:11.
Posted 2007-09-24 11:59:44
Monks’ Protest Is Challenging Burmese Junta
Buddhist monks, escorted on each side by hand-holding supporters, protesting Sunday in the wet streets of Yangon, Myanmar.
Agence France-Presse — Getty Images
nytimes.com
images ...............
Posted 2007-09-24 12:32:20
Unfortunately we still don't have a single image of Suu Kyi after more than four years out of sight.
She looked pale, some witnesses were quoted. Others just spoke of her tears.
The current "unrest" will take weeks to fully unroll.
Difficult days ahead for the people of Myanmar/Burma.
Posted 2007-09-24 12:37:47
I'm wondering when the Junta will start confiscating cameras?
Posted 2007-09-24 12:40:36
Yes, first a revolution in Myanmar, then a revolution in Thailand.
The people need it, just here they are to stupid german "Untertanen" to know this.
Posted 2007-09-24 12:44:20
Quote Unfortunately we still don't have a single image of Suu Kyi after more than four years out of sight.
there's some poor quality stuff that shows the Lady with the Monks when they visited a day or so ago ......................
edit to add
Burma - Detained Suu Kyi Meets Monks
youtube.com
Edited by Mid, 2007-09-24 12:48:30.
Posted 2007-09-24 12:46:47
As we watch this unfold, the protests which started with a few hundred protesters, has now reached over 15,000. Emboldened by the juntas "restraint" it is inevitable the numbers of protesters will rapidly grow. As of yet, the Buddhist leaders have not come out in support of the demonstrations nor have they come out in strong objection. As the number of protesters swell, the Buddhist leadership will have to take a stance. If history is any indicator, they will at some point very soon come out in support of the movement or at a minimum continue to be silent on "official" sanction. In either case, the protests will continue to gain momentum and lead to a major confrontation with the junta. As some have commented, the junta is really between a rock and a hard place. If they do nothing, they will surely be ousted from power. If they retaliate with force by killing monks, the situation will escalate to an all out civil war. The severity of bloodshed will depend on the degree to which the juntas leadership can "convince" the rank and file of the army to follow orders to kill protesters. Given the strong Buddhist beliefs among the rank and file, the very thought of killing a monk is unacceptable. This, coupled with the fact the many of the rank and file are in the army via forced conscription, leads one to believe they will not follow any order from the junta leadership which involves killing the protesters. In fact, they may put a quick end to the junta leadership when they turn their arms against it. No matter which of the scenarios plays out, there will be bloodshed. When the bloodshed begins the international community will have to respond. Even China will have to "modify" its position on supporting the junta to appease what will be a near unanimous consensus within the international community to intervene. So what will be the form of intervention by the international community? We all have opinions on this so let's hear them. My opinion, for what it's worth, is further economic sanctions will have no effect on stopping the bloodshed. Some sort of military intervention similar to Kosovo will be most likely. Certainly ASEAN countries and in particular Thailand will have to play a major role in any type of military intervention. Let's hope Thailand has the moral fortitude to finally stand up to this repressive regime and play a major role in ousting them. If they do, the benefits to Thailand will be numerous. Thailand's tarnished image within the international community will be greatly enhanced, they will emerge as a trusted friend and partner to the government which replaces the junta, and in time, most of the problems along it's border with Myanmar will a distant memory.
Edited by roietjimmy, 2007-09-24 12:51:03.
Posted 2007-09-24 12:51:02
The junta might decrease petrol prices or do something similar to decrease the tensions.
Posted 2007-09-24 12:51:11
Myanmar monks' protest gathers steam
YANGON (AFP)
Buddhists monks and their supporters in Yangon. Thousands of monks were expected to march in Myanmar's main city Yangon on Monday, piling the pressure on its military junta after a weekend that saw the biggest show of dissent in nearly two decades
citizen.co.za
Posted 2007-09-24 13:03:59
roietjimmy, on 2007-09-24 12:46:47, said: As we watch this unfold, the protests which started with a few hundred protesters, has now reached over 15,000. Emboldened by the juntas "restraint" it is inevitable the numbers of protesters will rapidly grow. As of yet, the Buddhist leaders have not come out in support of the demonstrations nor have they come out in strong objection. As the number of protesters swell, the Buddhist leadership will have to take a stance. If history is any indicator, they will at some point very soon come out in support of the movement or at a minimum continue to be silent on "official" sanction. In either case, the protests will continue to gain momentum and lead to a major confrontation with the junta. As some have commented, the junta is really between a rock and a hard place. If they do nothing, they will surely be ousted from power. If they retaliate with force by killing monks, the situation will escalate to an all out civil war. The severity of bloodshed will depend on the degree to which the juntas leadership can "convince" the rank and file of the army to follow orders to kill protesters. Given the strong Buddhist beliefs among the rank and file, the very thought of killing a monk is unacceptable. This, coupled with the fact the many of the rank and file are in the army via forced conscription, leads one to believe they will not follow any order from the junta leadership which involves killing the protesters. In fact, they may put a quick end to the junta leadership when they turn their arms against it. No matter which of the scenarios plays out, there will be bloodshed. When the bloodshed begins the international community will have to respond. Even China will have to "modify" its position on supporting the junta to appease what will be a near unanimous consensus within the international community to intervene. So what will be the form of intervention by the international community? We all have opinions on this so let's hear them. My opinion, for what it's worth, is further economic sanctions will have no effect on stopping the bloodshed. Some sort of military intervention similar to Kosovo will be most likely. Certainly ASEAN countries and in particular Thailand will have to play a major role in any type of military intervention. Let's hope Thailand has the moral fortitude to finally stand up to this repressive regime and play a major role in ousting them. If they do, the benefits to Thailand will be numerous. Thailand's tarnished image within the international community will be greatly enhanced, they will emerge as a trusted friend and partner to the government which replaces the junta, and in time, most of the problems along it's border with Myanmar will a distant memory.
ASEAN is a paper tiger / rubber stamp that rarely criticizes any of its neighbors, and I think Thailand and Burma's generals mutual border problems are mutually manufactured to justify their positions and obscene budgets. A few fireworks on the border usually precedes a round of golf between them.
Posted 2007-09-24 13:07:36
Monks ordered back to the temples
Today's Top Stories
Quote Rangoon - Burma's military-controlled Buddhist clergy, the Sangha Nayaka Committee, on Monday instructed all temples in Rangoon to send visiting monks back to their townships in an effort to put an end to the anti-government marches in the capital.
In a new form of public protest, thousands of Buddhist monks have been staging peaceful marches in Rangoon daily since last Tuesday. Many of the participating monks are from temples outside of Rangoon, visiting the former capital for religious studies during Buddhist lent.
The saffron-robed rebellion hit its highest point of the current campaign on Sunday, when more than 10,000 laymen joined approximately 3,000 marching monks and 300 nuns.
Many shouted political slogans for the first time, calling on the ruling regime to free opposition leader Aung San Suu Kyi.
On Saturday an estimated 700 monks visited the Rangoon compound of Suu Kyi, who has been under house arrest since May 2003, prompting a rare public appearance by the Nobel peace laureate who is still seen as the heart and soul of Burma's pro-democracy movement.
More marches are planned on Monday, in open defiance of the Sangha Nayaka Committee, comprising so-called "government monks," sources said.
The organization behind the protesting monks has ordered monasteries in Rangoon to contribute monks to Monday's march.
A confrontation between the military and monks seems inevitable, western diplomats said.
"We expect some kind of a resolution in the next few days," said one western diplomat. "Either the protests go up or go down, but it can't go on like this."
The Burmese military, which has ruled the country since 1962, has killed protesting monks before, most recently in the 1988 anti-government demonstrations.
snip
Posted 2007-09-24 13:07:53
Plus, on 2007-09-24 12:51:02, said: The junta might decrease petrol prices or do something similar to decrease the tensions.
Agree. They will likely do exactly this to try and decrease the tension but, although the reason given for the protests is the increase in petrol prices, I think the protests have a far greater end in mind.
Edited by roietjimmy, 2007-09-24 13:08:51.
Posted 2007-09-24 13:24:32
chinthee, on 2007-09-24 12:37:47, said: I'm wondering when the Junta will start confiscating cameras?
Most cameras you see are of stooges of the junta in civilian clothes.
They keep track of who takes part - some day later those faces in the photographs may face the consequences.
Posted 2007-09-24 13:39:53
Burmese protesters 'detained and beaten'
From correspondents in Bangkok
September 24, 2007 04:19pm
Quote BURMA'S military rulers have detained 218 people over anti-junta protests that erupted five weeks ago, sometimes subjecting them to beatings during interrogations, a watchdog said today.
"Activists have not only been beaten while in detention, but have also been under extreme physical and mental torture," said Bo Kyi, head of the Thailand-based Assistance Association for Political Prisoners (Burma).
Most of those arrested were members of Aung San Suu Kyi's opposition National League for Democracy (NLD) party or part of the 88 Generation Student movement that kicked off the protests on August 19, he said.
snip
Posted 2007-09-24 13:44:55
kmart, on 2007-09-24 13:03:59, said: roietjimmy, on 2007-09-24 12:46:47, said: As we watch this unfold, the protests which started with a few hundred protesters, has now reached over 15,000.
.....deleted for brevity...
ASEAN is a paper tiger / rubber stamp that rarely criticizes any of its neighbors, and I think Thailand and Burma's generals mutual border problems are mutually manufactured to justify their positions and obscene budgets. A few fireworks on the border usually precedes a round of golf between them.
You'll get no argument from me. The admission of Myanmar into the club is testament to their "paper tiger" nature. Given there is a major crisis in Myanmar and with enough international pressure, Thailand may be induced to participate in some type of intervention to stop the killing.
Posted 2007-09-24 14:00:24
Truly, George and Laura Bush have been putting pressure on the Burmese junta all this year, and prior. It is thought that Pres. Bush mentioned this at the APEC conference this month. Laura Bush has contacted the UN Secretary General, Ban Ki-Boon of Korea. Good for them.
Clarifying an earlier point: in spite of all the bloodshed of 70 years of Soviet regime, the empire fell without one shot fired, except for the bullets that killed the dictator of Romania. It fell because the people took to the streets nonviolently. Philipines, similarly, except for the assassination of Mrs. Aquino's husband, who had probably been converted to nonviolent methods during his exile. And FWIW, Joan Baez has an NGO that exposes abuses of left wing governments. People power often works when it is tried; the shame is that it is so seldom tried.
The eyes of the world are on Thailand's neighbor. Let's hope and pray we all learn the right lessons.
Posted 2007-09-24 14:03:52
Mid, on 2007-09-24 12:44:20, said: Quote Unfortunately we still don't have a single image of Suu Kyi after more than four years out of sight.
there's some poor quality stuff that shows the Lady with the Monks when they visited a day or so ago ......................
edit to add
Burma - Detained Suu Kyi Meets Monks
youtube.com
September 24, 2007
Aung San Suu Kyi, behind a cordon, greets the monks.
Photo: Reuters
theage.com.au
Posted 2007-09-24 14:03:58
The junta doesn't need ASEAN, short of real military intervention they have nothing to be afraid of.
I hope they will lack popular domestic support for the crackdown.
If they still have 20-30% of population behind them, especially in the military, things are going to get very messy.
So far it looks as if they have no ideas on how to deal with monks. They'll just probably sit it out. Either the monks are going to get too political and so lose their untouchable status, or they'll go home.
Posted 2007-09-24 14:27:45
Special thanks to Mid for the news stories and photos, and to journalists like Terry Evans.
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