141 replies to this topic
Posted 2008-01-14 17:37:17
 wrecker, on 2008-01-14 16:39:57, said:
Maybe you went to a Thai school, where math is a problem. The Euro, did around 35 to to the bath only a few years ago. The problem is simple, not that baht is strengthening, the Dollar is weakening because of an insane monetary policy of the US. The Euro is actually strengthening against all other major currencies including the Pound Sterling and the Yen.
The header should have been, THE DOLLAR IS WEAKENING AGAINST ALL MAJOR AND MOST SOUTH EAST ASIAN CURRENCIES.
Do not worry you can still make money, ask the Germans. If the currency rate would be a real problem , the German economy was wiped out decades ago with their strong D-Mark. Certain countries are used to strong currencies and will turn a problem in an opportunity. And otherwise we still have the Thai army....
Is the " maybe " bit a response to my post ( 7 ) wrecker or a general observation for something i,ve missed ????
marshbags 
Posted 2008-01-14 17:41:58
Quote The Baht is NOT appreciating.
The greenback is on the slide.
Really?
What do you base that opinion on?
I've just checked the GBP , the Euro, the US Dollar, the Japanese Yen, the Hong Kong Dollar, the Chinese Yuan, the Swedish and Danish Krona, the Swiss Franc, the Australian Dollar and they are all
weaker against the Thai baht than they were 3 months ago.
The Hungarian Forint is however stronger - I'll have to ask my clients if they'd mind paying me in those rather than GBP.
Posted 2008-01-14 17:43:17
A_Traveller, on 2008-01-14 18:06:02, said: The present answer is that if conversions are done in country, then the internal rate will be used. However, as many have noted, banks, both here and foreign, do not always use the most beneficial rate, hence why it is wise to be aware of the rate gap and ensure clarity in your instructions to a transferring bank, if you are so able to do.
Regards
/edit typo//
I assume that Aus Govt denote local Au$ currency in Sydney for tt to my BKK a/c, then Bangkok Bank affect internal rate of FOREX on receipt of said fund docket...& convert at prevailing THB rate... will check.
Has always been thus since starting assoc. with this lot.
cheers for the heads up.
Posted 2008-01-14 17:45:45
chrislarsson, on 2008-01-14 16:26:51, said: A_Traveller, on 2008-01-14 16:10:01, said: The internal rate is as above, however the international quoted mid-rate is 29.8232 THB to 1 USD
I hope nobody is foolish enough to do the exchange at the offshore rate anyway.
Today's rate to the Euro is 48.76. That is more or less the the same rate as it has been the last 5 years.
This is really only a problem if you have your assets in USD or is exporting in USD.
Has anyone tried carrying THB cash to a friendly overseas bank/moneychanger - I am thinking Singapore, Malaysia, Hong Kong in order to sell THB for USD at international rate and then wire transfer USD back to Thai for conversion back to THB at onshore rate? Seems to me a good 8% profit is available.
Posted 2008-01-14 17:56:20
back in Aust for 3 months more. wife has aust atm card for last month she pulls out 1000 baht my account shows 34.45-35.34 baht plus a $4 fee of course atm rates kill the money exchangers
Posted 2008-01-14 18:21:32
Hi all,
Didn't read much into this thread however, I've a few questions to ask you forum readers here....
1. Were ANY of you around (in Thailand) circa 1997 (re: the Thaitanic)?? In defence of the " I don't give a rats A*se about the Thai Baht" etc. ad infinum...
2. Did it not work the other way?? $$, GBP, Euro (sorry, not around at that time)..., and just about any other currency outside of ASEAN ...
3. The rate exploded, any others with the experience? Re: had to close 2 bank accts., have it sent to S'pore due to the Bank of Thailand shutting the door on currency exchange electonically, put the clams in a Halliburton briefcase, got dolled up for biz air travel, and hand-carried the cash back to TH and waited for the $$$ to sky-rocket (52.12 for 2 hours - from 25.4 / 1$), and a mad scramble for 5 hours going to money changers.
Posted 2008-01-14 18:44:06
I wonder how Thai exports are managing to hold up at all? The baht is strong against about 8+ foreign currencies at the moment. I smell a credit burst waiting to happen if exporters are constantly borrowing to stay afloat. With the recent subprime crisis hitting the U.K. now and the pound falling this could spell trouble for some asian exporters to the west. If Thailand has its own credit crisis then its entire economy could go into a spiral.
They have been loaning out money hand over fist again to people that are defaulting at significant rates. Exports are down..fuel costs are up. This is not a sustainable pattern by any means. I don't see any sector where Thailand is doing significantly better at. Perhaps Tourism has somewhat recovered from the Tsunami levels but that's still only about 10% of the gdp.
Edited by wintermute, 2008-01-14 18:55:04.
Posted 2008-01-14 18:48:27
Naam, on 2008-01-14 17:36:12, said: rbrister333, on 2008-01-14 17:23:38, said: RMB. RMN is Renminbi not RNB.
the international code/abbreviation for the chinese currency is CNY. 
that' s right.
But chinese traders are more used to call/spell their currency RMB when they quote the prices.
anyway we are talking about the same thing.
It is going towards 7 for 1 $.
Posted 2008-01-14 18:52:07
CORVETTELOVER, on 2008-01-14 18:56:20, said: back in Aust for 3 months more. wife has aust atm card for last month she pulls out 1000 baht my account shows 34.45-35.34 baht plus a $4 fee of course atm rates kill the money exchangers
they are "selling" your baht at 21% over the internal rate ? - ouch !
i.e. 35.34 per Au$ as opposed to 29.20 ? I am most def in the wrong racket !
take care.
Posted 2008-01-14 18:55:10
maxcrc, on 2008-01-14 19:48:27, said: Naam, on 2008-01-14 17:36:12, said: rbrister333, on 2008-01-14 17:23:38, said: RMB. RMN is Renminbi not RNB.
the international code/abbreviation for the chinese currency is CNY.
that' s right.
But chinese traders are more used to call/spell their currency RMB when they quote the prices.
anyway we are talking about the same thing.
It is going towards 7 for 1 $.
stands for Ren Men Bi - "the Peoples" money...... err, except the 700-plus million farmers here who actually have fluck all, of course.
such is Life  )
Posted 2008-01-14 19:02:14
chrislarsson, on 2008-01-14 10:26:51, said: Today's rate to the Euro is 48.76. That is more or less the the same rate as it has been the last 5 years.
Better you check the data of the past 5 years than...Euro versus Thai Baht.
LaoPo
Posted 2008-01-14 19:04:30
Quote Has anyone tried carrying THB cash to a friendly overseas bank/moneychanger - I am thinking Singapore, Malaysia, Hong Kong in order to sell THB for USD at international rate and then wire transfer USD back to Thai for conversion back to THB at onshore rate? Seems to me a good 8% profit is available.
Risky - there's a 50,000 baht limit on taking THB out of Thailand, though I think you can take up to 500,000 into neighboring countries - not sure if Malaysia qualifies.
Posted 2008-01-14 19:16:12
maxcrc, on 2008-01-14 19:48:27, said: Naam, on 2008-01-14 17:36:12, said: rbrister333, on 2008-01-14 17:23:38, said: RMB. RMN is Renminbi not RNB.
the international code/abbreviation for the chinese currency is CNY.
that' s right.
But chinese traders are more used to call/spell their currency RMB when they quote the prices.
anyway we are talking about the same thing.
It is going towards 7 for 1 $.
Specifically, the RMB is the Chinese 'convertible' currency - called the RMB Yuan - the initial foreign exchange denominator and mechanism by which the PRC allowed financial transactions between Chinese and 'foreign' bodies.....just over a decade ago, this tool was formalised.
This, of course, was before we could play with Gold Futures in Hong Kong & Macau....... Gold looking good, yes?
With the PRC having over $USD 1.5 trillion on deposit in a basket of currencies worldwide, the RMB is certainly undervalued and inflation is expected @ 9% PA after the Olympic dream has faded.
Then expect to see even worse rioting and discontent from the citizens - bigtime.
stay safe & smile.......play nice, people 
Edited by Brewsta, 2008-01-14 19:17:20.
Posted 2008-01-14 19:36:59
wrecker, on 2008-01-14 16:39:57, said: Maybe you went to a Thai school, where math is a problem. The Euro, did around 35 to to the bath only a few years ago. The problem is simple, not that baht is strengthening, the Dollar is weakening because of an insane monetary policy of the US. The Euro is actually strengthening against all other major currencies including the Pound Sterling and the Yen.
The header should have been, THE DOLLAR IS WEAKENING AGAINST ALL MAJOR AND MOST SOUTH EAST ASIAN CURRENCIES.
Do not worry you can still make money, ask the Germans. If the currency rate would be a real problem , the German economy was wiped out decades ago with their strong D-Mark. Certain countries are used to strong currencies and will turn a problem in an opportunity. And otherwise we still have the Thai army....
Yes, opportunity is the key word here. The disequilibrium affords us all a chance to make a little money. Some US regional bank stocks have been beaten down 50+% and are now paying out dividends in the 10% range. That's a pretty good return while waiting for a price recovery. We should thank all the lemmings for giving us this chance. Yes, there are other stocks that are good bets now, but as Willie Sutton said, when asked why he robbed banks; "That's where the money is." Now is the time when we can rob banks legally.--otis
Posted 2008-01-14 20:14:01
bubba, on 2008-01-14 17:29:26, said: Remember when the baht was weak and prices for imported goods kept rising and rising?
Has anyone seen retail baht prices for the same goods decrease at all due to the now strong baht?
I bought a sweatshirt at MBK recently for 500b: about the same price I'd pay at Costco in the US. Fewer and fewer special "deals" here in BKK if you're spending USD.
Posted 2008-01-14 20:35:24
maxcrc, on 2008-01-14 17:45:14, said: That s true. But there are MANY thai exporters who still export in US$.
Actually, in some sectors most of them still quote in $ and for them it is a very big problem.
Well, my self I am in the same situation because I have more customers in the Americas than in Europe.
So, if you keep the prices your profit will go almost to nothing.
If you rise the price accordingly, your customers will need new pricelists every month or so and they will not be happy (some of them understand other don t want to understand).
If you change your pricelist in euros your american customers will ask for a conversion and than say"wow ! thats much more than last time." But you can say "Now ,it is the same price (in euros or bahts) as you can see... Exchange rate has changed".
It is not easy, but it is not just a problem of the Baht ,it is a problem of a weak dollar worldwide.
Check the exchange rate $ with philippines peso (and this is not any asian tiger !!) from 57 to about 41 now.
Brazilan real ? From almost 4 to 1.8 !! Chilean peso ? From over 750 to 495 !
South African rand ? even worse.
UK pound is already declining , Canadian dollar last fall highest peak will not probably been overtaken, but euro has still some weeks or few months to possibly rise and than will start to go down.
But asian currencies may still carry the weight of a further appreciation driven by Chinese RNB appreciation.
RNB (yuan) appreciation is under way and will follow I think until the Olympic Games, inflation in China is raising dangerously and yuan needs to strenghten to avoid a dangerous double digit inflation.
I hope after Songkran thai baht will start to slow too.
US $ will soon recover against the euro (slowly anyway)but still not now...if benchmark will be cut there is still room for a depreciation.
US $ policy for me is wrong because it is true that US $ exports are more competetive but think about the cost of IMPORTS (including OIL) ...if you import more than what you export, the cheaper the currencies and huger and huger the deficit...this is mathematics...
and moreover higher oil prices fuel inflation...and slow economy + risk of inflation is a real BAD thing because if you cut the rate inflation will go even higher but if you don t do that a recession is just outside the doors.
May I say this US administration really suck ?? With Clinton USA has at the same time: strong dollar, incredible budget SURPLUS, moderate cuurent account deficit (under control) , big economic growth,
low unemployment ....
now they have been using the opposite receipt for years with disastrous results and they still follow that way.
This administration has done a better job of destabilizing the financial security of the US than any terrorist attack ever could. Clinton actually cared about the long-term economic prospects of the American people by paying down the national debt with the huge budget surplus his economic principles earned. Bush however is too much of an ego maniac and too idiotic to see the big picture and the harm his lack of sound economic principles does destabilizing the USD. Americans complain about the high cost of oil and don't understand how budget deficits relate to a weak dollar.
I wholeheartedly agree, Bush sucks!! Thank G** he'll be gone in a year. The only remaining problem is the bloc which voted him in office; what a bunch of idiots! Hopefully they will be too ashamed to vote.
Posted 2008-01-14 20:52:20
I am not some expert about economy or finance...I see all of this,lately,in a different and specific light.In a global way... However - this news MADE MY DAY...heheheeee.I am glad about this...Keep going on...
Posted 2008-01-14 21:15:57
The principal cause of the dollar's decline is the decreasing short term interest rates in the US. Short term interest rates in the US are falling, compared with those of other developed countries excluding Japan. As long as the US cuts interest rates, the dollar will fall.
Posted 2008-01-14 21:35:12
beginner, on 2008-01-14 17:23:06, said: john b good, on 2008-01-14 17:08:34, said: The Baht is NOT appreciating.
my Bhuddist friends are telling me it's all an illusion 
Posted 2008-01-14 21:42:44
China this year is in a spot of trouble. There are a lot of things happening at once- RMB appreciation, wage pressures, new worker social welfare laws, futher export rebate reductions, and material cost increases mean that exporters can't hold prices any longer.
For the past 6-7 years it has been a true buyer's market for consumer products- costs the same or down every year. Now for 2008 increases will be passed on- we're seeig 5-15% depending on category. Retailers who are already suffering will be pressured to maintain margin. They're saying they won't accept increases but as China is the only real market for many goods there will be no choice but to either eat the increase or (more likely) pass it on as higher retail pricepoints.
Here's hoping China implodes and us exporters can do more business out of Thailand soon. =)
Posted 2008-01-14 21:46:43
goatfarmer, on 2008-01-14 21:15:57, said: The principal cause of the dollar's decline is the decreasing short term interest rates in the US. Short term interest rates in the US are falling, compared with those of other developed countries excluding Japan. As long as the US cuts interest rates, the dollar will fall.
i refrain from forecasting exchange rates but i am convinced that Bernanke will cut rates considerably. that inspite of the FED's tradition too act strongly in election years. the dollar's decline is however not only based on falling rates. the dollar was anaemic and decline also existed when Greenspan hiked a dozen (or more) times.
Posted 2008-01-14 21:51:35
Naam, on 2008-01-14 06:46:43, said: i refrain from forecasting exchange rates but i am convinced that Bernanke will cut rates considerably.
You must have inside info. Either that, or you're basing your forecast on Bernanke's statement 2 days ago that the Fed would be aggressively cutting rates at the end of January, since recession fears are now greater than inflation fears (in their opinion).
Posted 2008-01-14 21:53:37
Naam, on 2008-01-14 22:46:43, said: goatfarmer, on 2008-01-14 21:15:57, said: The principal cause of the dollar's decline is the decreasing short term interest rates in the US. Short term interest rates in the US are falling, compared with those of other developed countries excluding Japan. As long as the US cuts interest rates, the dollar will fall.
i refrain from forecasting exchange rates but i am convinced that Bernanke will cut rates considerably. that inspite of the FED's tradition too act strongly in election years. the dollar's decline is however not only based on falling rates. the dollar was anaemic and decline also existed when Greenspan hiked a dozen (or more) times.
It looks as though they're heading for 3%. That ain't good. Greenspan of course was way way way behind the curve. A Bubble King.
Posted 2008-01-14 22:02:41
ajc1970, on 2008-01-14 21:51:35, said: Naam, on 2008-01-14 06:46:43, said: i refrain from forecasting exchange rates but i am convinced that Bernanke will cut rates considerably.
You must have inside info. Either that, or you're basing your forecast on Bernanke's statement 2 days ago that the Fed would be aggressively cutting rates at the end of January, since recession fears are now greater than inflation fears (in their opinion).
my opinion that the FED will cut rates exists since the subprime crisis surfaced and that was six months ago. no need to listen to helicopter-Bernie's recent "confession" and then drawing conclusions 
Posted 2008-01-14 22:05:31
lannarebirth, on 2008-01-14 21:53:37, said: It looks as though they're heading for 3%. That ain't good.
do alternatives exist? 
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