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[cclub75]

Sales at U.S. retailers unexpectedly fell in December, capping the weakest year since 2002.

Sales dropped 0.4 percent, the first decline since June, following a revised 1 percent gain in November, the Commerce Department said today in Washington. Purchases excluding automobiles also decreased 0.4 percent.

This news is a perfect ticket for... a cut by the FED end of january. I mean we knew it already... it's just another confirmation.


Miss Tarisa and the BOT are going to have several other sleepless nights. Poor Tarisa.

[lopburi3]

PeaceBlondie, on 2008-01-15 11:33:11, said:

gregybn, on 2008-01-15 01:58:16, said:

Quote

Is this fuzzy thinking? Have I got something wrong? Does every cloud have a silver lining? Is the cup 1/2 full?

Actually... half full after about 9 years...

Quote

Expect the purchasing power of your us $ ss payments and pension to fall by 10-20% per year for the next 2-3 years. good luck.

Exactly... here is a very recent graphical form... showing what your gov't doesn't want you to understand...
... as they inflate away your (soon to be worthless) fiat junk.

gregy, I'll grant you that the official govt. rate of inflation is minimized, but I doubt it's that much.  The COLA for SS was 2.3%, and inflation was more like 5%.  However, I've found in the past that those who claim inflation has been understated far more than that for decades, are talking shit.  If you could buy a Ford Mustang for $900 in 1965, or buy a beachfront 3 bedroom house in Miami for $25,000 in 1975, then inflation has been 10% or 15% since those years.  But not really, not even 10%, or else a 1.55 ounce Hershey bar would now cost $11 in the USA.

I really do not believe anyone bought a new Mustang for $900; ever.  In 1965 I paid $3,500 for mine.  It was a convertible and automatic so not the cheapest but no way could you obtain for anything near $900.

[ray23]

"Further more, upon interviewing my 89 year old Grandfather about the current situation. Someone that still works everyday and owns a lot of businesses - told me. I have seen this kind of situation over and over in my life, his advice - hold on to what you have it will come around again. The world markets will also come down. He seemed not to have worry or much concern unless you happen to be in terrible debt otherwise hold on. But I reminded him that in Asia things are different than they were, and that the economy here is strong and less dependant on the US. He seemed to think I was too eager to react and told me to be patient, that now is not the time to buy over here or to invest "

Yep I think Grand Pa is right. This isn't the first recession that America has been in and recovered from.

They even recovered from a depression and while I'm thinking about does anyone think America was alone in that. It was world wide event. What is hppening at the moment is global problem it may take longer to effect some countries then ohers but eventually it will effect all.

I was speaking to a friend the other day he is paid in Euros, totaly convienced that it will never go down and only get stronger. I don't see it that way, but I'm far from being sharp at this. Any thougths please?

I know it easy to blame America for all this but the fact is it wasn't just the U.S. involved in the greed game. Anybody checked the rates on the GBP, lately I'm sure some finance guy in the states held a gun to his counter parts head in Britan to take on sub prime loans. By the way I'm not gloating this is a mess for all of us and not a good one. What happened with Spain was that a part of the sub prime mess I don't know?

Anyone notice when the Peso started it's rise maybe I'm wrong but it seems to me that it was about the same time Thailand placed it' controls. So are we seeing real growth there or just speculation doing it's norm?

There are still groups out there driving things up and in the end the people of the Phillippines pay the price. The P.I. has for years had it's income driven by out of country workers sending money home. The BBC did a special on it this morning those workers are now having to cut back on thier living expenses and working as many hours and jobs as they can, just to provide at the same level they were, for thier families at home

I understand the account surplus here makes Thailand look good. But what happens when they actually start spending that money. They have kept the purse string tight for the last year. Eventually they have to start spending? The new governmet has a difficult road ahead no matter who it is.

Yes as a dollar payee my usable income has been reduced drastically over the past two years. Between the currency exchange and inflation. I assume that it will be reduced even further and I have perpared myself for that. The answer cut spending same here as anywhere else.

Yes you get the onshore rate when you use an ATM here.

44 to One try October of 1993, I think that was the year I came here old age gets you all the time

Do Politics effect the economy why do you tihnk George senior didnt get reelected he was a popular President, he just scouldn't get the problem with the economy at that time. Along come the Clinton years and things get better, George Jr show up and look where we are today. So that leads me to believe that politics do effect economies.


Now folks that is just my humble opinnion, you can take that and a dollar and maybe get a cup of coffee depending on the rate of exchange is that day

Edited by ray23, 2008-01-15 21:26:08.

[Old Man River]

cclub75, on 2008-01-15 20:41:47, said:

Miss Tarisa and the BOT are going to have several other sleepless nights. Poor Tarisa.

If you were the Governor of the BOT, what would you do to stem the appreciation of the THB, or instead do nothing?

[ray23]

What about the German's and the Euro. Unless I have read this wrong it seems to me they are concerned about the strength of the Euro and weakness of the dollar. Concerned about slow growth in America, could it be the export there as well. Seems to be a song sung everywhere these days. A global problem I do believe

"German economy grows by 2.5%, but sentiment declines
By Geir Moulson Bloomberg News, The Associated PressPublished: January 15, 2008


BERLIN: The German economy grew by a solid 2.5 percent last year, helped by strong exports, but a downbeat survey of investor confidence pointed to clouds on the horizon for Europe's biggest economy.

The preliminary 2007 growth figure, released Tuesday by the Federal Statistics Office, compared with the previous year's increase of 2.9 percent in gross domestic product - Germany's best performance since 2000.

The Federal Statistics Office also said that Germany balanced its budget last year, eliminating a budget deficit that ran at 1.6 percent in 2006 and in previous years breached a European Union-mandated limit of 3 percent of GDP.

But a survey of investor confidence Tuesday underlined expectations of a bumpier ride in 2008. The ZEW institute said its monthly survey dropped to minus 41.6 points from minus 37.2 in December - worse than the minus 40 economists had forecast.

"The largest risk for the development of the German economy is the danger of a recession in the United States following the financial market crisis," ZEW said in a statement. "Together with a strong euro it might undermine exports."

Today in Business with Reuters

Citigroup and Merrill Lynch take drastic steps over subprime fallout

EMI Group restructuring to cut £200 million in costs

Global equities sink before U.S. bank earnings; dollar weak

The growth estimate for 2007 was in line with economists' forecasts, and was slightly better than the government's prediction of 2.4 percent.

The statistics office said German exports, a traditional strong point, grew by 8.3 percent last year and accounted for more than half of the growth in GDP.

The export growth translated into GDP growth of 1.4 percent.

Domestic stimuli - above all companies' investment in equipment - grew by 8.4 percent, contributing another percentage point to GDP, the office said.

Growth expectations last year initially were clouded by the government's move to raise the value-added tax from 16 percent to 19 percent on Jan. 1, 2007 - a decision that was aimed at keeping the budget deficit in check.

The economy emerged unscathed and the government managed to balance its budget for the first time since 2000, when it was helped by revenue from the auction of new-generation mobile phone licenses.

Still, private consumption declined by 0.3 percent last year, the Federal Statistics Office said.

"Net exports continued to be a reliable and the most important growth contributor last year," said Alexander Koch, vice president and economist with UniCredit Markets & Investment Banking.

"The German export sector benefited disproportionately from strong global demand and defended its title as world champion in merchandise exports for the fifth consecutive year, ahead of China," he noted.

Economy Minister Michael Glos has said that he plans to reduce the government's 2008 growth forecast of 2 percent, although he has not specified a new figure.

On Tuesday, he described the 2007 figures as "a solid basis for the continuation of the upswing this year."

Fourth-quarter growth figures will not be released until next month, but the statistics office tentatively estimated growth at 0.25 percent - down from a third-quarter figure of 0.7 percent.

"The recent downward trend in business expectations clearly points to soft growth dynamic also at the beginning of 2008," Koch said.

"However, we still rate the chances for an abrupt end to the economic upswing as very low," he added. "We maintain our forecast of another year of respectable growth for 2008."

Holger Schmieding, Bank of America's chief European economist, predicted "a soft start and a stronger finish" for the economy in 2008.

In the early part of the year, he said, high oil and food prices likely will dampen consumer spending, while "global uncertainties, much slower growth in the U.S. and the U.K. and the strong euro will dampen export growth and the readiness to invest at home."

He also pointed to a potential risk from possible government moves to expand minimum wages to new sectors, cautioning that "investment could lose momentum and the pace of job creation could slow down seriously."

  
Back to topHome  >  Business with Reuters"

[Heng]

So there will be a shakeout.   After a decade of inflated forex profits for exporters, we'll just see who has been diversifying and who has been overextending themselves.    

[gregybn]

Quote

gregy, I'll grant you that the official govt. rate of inflation is minimized,

dam_n right... the understatement of the decade?

Quote

but I doubt it's that much.

Wanna bet?

Quote

The COLA for SS was 2.3%, and inflation was more like 5%.

Here are some scary money supply growth numbers for you for 2007:
Brazil M3 +17.0%
Canada M3 +12.9%
China M2 +18.5%
Euro zone M3 +12.3%
Hong Kong M3 +31.5%
India M3 +21.5%
U.S. M3 +15.8%
I don't make this stuff up... the numbers are there if you look around (... other than the NYT and WSJ etc.)
COLA at 2.3% is a freaking joke mate!
Just who is telling you inflation is/has been = 5%???
Have you also bought a "real" Rolex from them?

I just found another item that compares a few more countries...

Quote

Contrary to the common belief that inflation is an increase in the Consumer Price Index (CPI), the classical definition of
inflation is an increase in the money supply, which results in price increases.
Money supply has increased by:
a. 42% in Russia
b. 21% in India
c. 18% in China
d. 12% in UK
e. 8% in Canada (... a bit lower from the above, but still significant)
Although the US Federal Reserve discontinued reporting M3 in March 2006, several sources have
reconstructed the data and determined that the US money supply is now growing at an unprecedented
annualized rate of 16%.

Be careful what you want to believe...
And be careful of Rolex salesmen... they'll tell you anything you want to hear (or deny)

Edited by gregybn, 2008-01-16 01:30:28.

[Tinkelbell]

[quote name='lopburi3' post='1763447' date='2008-01-15 20:43:57'][quote name='PeaceBlondie' post='1762586' date='2008-01-15 11:33:11'][quote name='gregybn' post='1762036' date='2008-01-15 01:58:16'][quote]Is this fuzzy thinking? Have I got something wrong? Does every cloud have a silver lining? Is the cup 1/2 full?[/quote]

Actually... half full after about 9 years...

[quote]Expect the purchasing power of your us $ ss payments and pension to fall by 10-20% per year for the next 2-3 years. good luck.[/quote]

Exactly... here is a very recent graphical form... showing what your gov't doesn't want you to understand...
... as they inflate away your (soon to be worthless) fiat junk.
[/quote]gregy, I'll grant you that the official govt. rate of inflation is minimized, but I doubt it's that much. The COLA for SS was 2.3%, and inflation was more like 5%. However, I've found in the past that those who claim inflation has been understated far more than that for decades, are talking shit. If you could buy a Ford Mustang for $900 in 1965, or buy a beachfront 3 bedroom house in Miami for $25,000 in 1975, then inflation has been 10% or 15% since those years. But not really, not even 10%, or else a 1.55 ounce Hershey bar would now cost $11 in the USA.
[/quote]
I really do not believe anyone bought a new Mustang for $900; ever. In 1965 I paid $3,500 for mine. It was a convertible and automatic so not the cheapest but no way could you obtain for anything near $900.
[/quote]


I also like to add my two cents.

In 1975,  we went shopping for a house in Miami,  FL.   After looking at different areas:  Miami Beach,  Miami Lakes,  Hialeah,  Opa-Loka....etc.    We ended up bought a house in North Miami Beach ( behind 163rd. Shopping Mall) for under $50,000.     Actually our first choice is living around waterfront in Miami Beach,   but couldn't find a decent ones under $80,000 even we don't mind living in a duplex.

Even those days,  property taxes in Miami Beach already higher than other areas.

[ray23]

Gentlemen I don't believe it is if this is going to happen, but when. That time looks very close. When these interest rates go into effect I have serious doubt that Thailand will be able to support the dollar at the levels required. So back to 25 might just be a possibility. Personally I think that will be devestating to us and Thailand.

The U.S. is not going to avoid a recession, it's already begun

"U.S. Recession a Bigger Risk Than China, Malkiel Says (Update1)

By Allen Wan

Jan. 15 (Bloomberg) -- A U.S. recession poses a bigger threat to the global economy than a slowdown in China, according to Burton Malkiel, the Princeton University economics professor who wrote ``A Random Walk Down Wall Street.''

``The U.S. is more important to the world,'' Malkiel, 75, said during an interview. ``The U.S. is slowing down dramatically and we're going to see little or no growth in the first half of 2008. I'm not worried about a slowdown in China because growth there will still be larger than anywhere else in the world.''

Stocks in the U.S. have fallen three straight weeks and posted their worst start to a year since 1991, amid concern the economy will contract. Goldman Sachs Group Inc. joined Morgan Stanley and Merrill Lynch & Co. last week in estimating that the nation may already be in a recession.

Malkiel predicted the Federal Reserve will reduce interest rates to as low as 3 percent this year, from 4.25 percent now. ``I anticipate lots of lowering in the first half,'' he said. Malkiel was a member of President Gerald R. Ford's Council of Economic Advisors when former Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan led the group.

Trading in futures contracts gives 100 percent odds that policy makers will shift the target rate for overnight loans between banks to either 3.75 percent or 3.50 percent this month.

11.5% Growth

China expanded at an 11.5 percent rate during the third quarter, the fastest among the world's 10 largest economies. The nation will expand 10 percent this year, Goldman predicted last week. Last year, China contributed 17 percent to global growth, the same as the U.S.

Malkiel said he is confident China will be able to slow growth to a ``sustainable pace'' of 7 percent to 8 percent.

He recommends that investors buy stocks of U.S. companies that have business ties to China. Malkiel also favors the SPDR S&P China ETF and iShares FTSX/Xinhua China 25 Index Fund.

``A Random Walk Down Wall Street,'' first published in 1973 and now in its ninth edition, argued that asset prices fluctuate randomly and investors can't consistently beat the market.

Stocks in China are in a ``bubble'' and will tumble once the government allows funds to flow more freely, Malkiel said.

China Life Insurance Co. illustrates the point, he added. The nation's largest life insurer trades for 46.6 times estimated earnings in Shanghai, 25.9 times in Hong Kong and 30 in New York, according to Bloomberg data.

`Restricting Arbitrage'

``It's just nuts,'' he said. ``China has been artificially restricting arbitrage.'' Malkiel expects ``these valuation discrepancies to disappear eventually as China liberalizes its currency. When that will occur, I don't know.''

The CSI 300 Index, which tracks A shares listed on China's two exchanges, has gained 6.7 percent this year after jumping 162 percent in 2007 and 121 percent in 2006. The shares are trading at ``bubble valuations,'' Malkiel said, referring to the yuan- denominated equities restricted mostly to local investors.

Malkiel declined to predict when the Chinese stock market ``bubble'' might burst, repeating his argument that it's impossible to predict future share prices.

``Over time, China will allow its citizens to invest in Hong Kong and overseas,'' said Malkiel, whose newest book, ``From Wall Street to the Great Wall,'' was published last month. ``Valuations of these Chinese stocks will then have to normalize.''

In October, China's securities regulator said it was studying a plan to allow arbitrage in shares of companies traded on domestic and Hong Kong exchanges. The regulator is seeking to end price discrepancies.

Last month, Hong Kong submitted a proposal to the Chinese cabinet for mainland individuals to buy shares directly on the city's stock market, paving the way for a pilot program that has been plagued by repeated delays.

To contact the reporter on this story: Allen Wan in New York at awan3@bloomberg.net

Last Updated: January 15, 2008 10:07 EST "

[Squint]

Brewsta, on 2008-01-14 17:01:49, said:

A_Traveller, on 2008-01-14 17:10:01, said:

Pardon?

The internal rate is as above, however the international quoted mid-rate is 29.8232 THB to 1 USD

Regards

Works both ways on the exchange.....

just got dosh from Aus: Au$2900 converted by BankTransfer (ITT) into: 84,699 Baht in my Bangkok Bank a/c....

i.e. 29.20 baht to the Au$....... have not seen 29.8 to 30.50 for months....sigh..... good for you.

But according to the 'offshore rate' at Xe.com , those Au$ are only worth  : 77,552.53 THB @ 26.7423

which would lose me nearly 30,000 Baht....... on a 300,000 baht monthly retainer....... nearly 10% in the ether....each month?

go figure?

regz to all.

Xe.com has always been inacurate, if you want to know the current rates just check the BKK Bank online.

I may be wrong but there seems to be an annual fluctuation in the Baht. I've noticed over the last five years that the Baht gains against other currencies around high season time and drops again around May. Is this to make more money from tourism by giving the tourists less Baht for their currencies and make things more expensive for them?

[Seneque]

I may be wrong but there seems to be an annual fluctuation in the Baht. I've noticed over the last five years that the Baht gains against other currencies around high season time and drops again around May. Is this to make more money from tourism by giving the tourists less Baht for their currencies and make things more expensive for them?

This is correct ...
the offshore rate is a creation from the Thai banks, in order for them to rip off tourists (perhaps) who use their (foreign) credit cards in this country but a sure way to make huge profits (therefore high season, more profits)
Exemple : when you buy a product at baht 1000 you are charged 1000 / 29 = 34.50 dollar. The bank will pay the shop baht 1000 but will recover 34.50 x 33 = 1138.50 ... , how about that.
When you TT money from overseas to Thailand the rate is onshore at all banks (except those who might try to s...w you)

As for the strengthening of the Thai baht, only time will tell ... as i do not know anyone who ever could predict anything regarding currencies (to look back is one thing, but to predict is another ...) The US has always showed resilience in any situation and my feeling is that the 'subprime' situation is used as a 'scapegoat' to let bank get rid of their accumulated mismanagement (then showing losses without shame) for all these years ... How many of them tried to entice you into borrowing to invest in various stocks, bonds, funds, etc...   the markets are now going down, the loans can't be repaid, the banks loose ... (or that is what they will tell you)
The whole thing is a big boy game and if you are not a big player (governments, large corporation, etc..) there is no way to predict/control the situation

To come back to the Thai situation, Thailand is not a sophisticated export country (except for a little computer technology) and a strong baht is definitely not helping their quality of export (mainly manpower made), plus the individual debt is at a record high. Once they realise it and blame it on whoever, expect another devaluation ...

Anyway, these are just thoughts ... Thank you for reading !

[Naam]

Seneque, on 2008-01-16 11:02:03, said:

the offshore rate is a creation from the Thai banks, in order for them to rip off tourists (perhaps) who use their (foreign) credit cards in this country but a sure way to make huge profits (therefore high season, more profits)

a real good one! next joke please... but wait a few minutes till i finished laughing and can start anew  

[lapamita]

Naam, on 2008-01-15 14:44:43, said:

lapamita, on 2008-01-15 11:07:29, said:

and there is the problem a ticking bomb tick,,,,tick,,,,tick....BUM !!! only JPM have 80 TRILLION USD outstanding.

this substance... do you smoke it, chew it, swallow it or do you inject it? and how much is it per serving? a godzillion?  

SORRY I AM NOT UNDER DRUGS,, but maybe you read more  and understand it.

only in Q2 JPM iINCREASED THE OUTSTANDING DERIVATE POSITION FROM 70 TRILLION TO OVER 80 TRILLION USD OR PER AVERAGE TRADINGDAY !!!! 150 BILLION OVER A CONSEQUENT PERIOD OF 66 TRADINGDAYS. ( most was done on SCIF auctions in cfds)

JPM is the biggest derivate holder in the world, is co-owner of the Privat Federal reservebank>!!

every savingdollar at JPM is 200 times involved in derivate buissenes

here are some numbers of total derivate


Consider the import of the data from the BIS' own website - - Review Table 19 at www.bis.org.  Follow the path:  Statistics>Derivatives>Table19.  Note that as of December, 2006 there were:

• $6.475 trillion commodities contracts (excluding gold) outstanding
• $40.239 trillion foreign exchange contracts outstanding
• $291.115 trillion interest rate market contracts outstanding

But consider the stunning increases in OTC Derivatives in just the six months between December, 2006 and June, 2007.  As of June, 2007 there were:

• $7.141 trillion in commodities contracts (excluding gold), an approx. $666 billion (10%) increase in only six months
• $48.620 trillion in foreign exchange contracts, a $8.31 trillion (approx. 20%) increase in only 6 months.
• $346.937 trillion in interest rate market contracts, a $55.822 trillion (approx. 19%) increase in only 6 months
Consider the import of the data from the BIS' own website - - Review Table 19 at www.bis.org.  Follow the path:  Statistics>Derivatives>Table19.  Note that as of December, 2006 there were:

• $6.475 trillion commodities contracts (excluding gold) outstanding
• $40.239 trillion foreign exchange contracts outstanding
• $291.115 trillion interest rate market contracts outstanding

But consider the stunning increases in OTC Derivatives in just the six months between December, 2006 and June, 2007.  As of June, 2007 there were:

• $7.141 trillion in commodities contracts (excluding gold), an approx. $666 billion (10%) increase in only six months
• $48.620 trillion in foreign exchange contracts, a $8.31 trillion (approx. 20%) increase in only 6 months.
• $346.937 trillion in interest rate market contracts, a $55.822 trillion (approx. 19%) increase in only 6 months
Consider the import of the data from the BIS' own website - - Review Table 19 at www.bis.org.  Follow the path:  Statistics>Derivatives>Table19.  Note that as of December, 2006 there were:

• $6.475 trillion commodities contracts (excluding gold) outstanding
• $40.239 trillion foreign exchange contracts outstanding
• $291.115 trillion interest rate market contracts outstanding

But consider the stunning increases in OTC Derivatives in just the six months between December, 2006 and June, 2007.  As of June, 2007 there were:

• $7.141 trillion in commodities contracts (excluding gold), an approx. $666 billion (10%) increase in only six months
• $48.620 trillion in foreign exchange contracts, a $8.31 trillion (approx. 20%) increase in only 6 months.
• $346.937 trillion in interest rate market contracts, a $55.822 trillion (approx. 19%) increase in only 6 months
(source:  www.bis.org.  Path:  statistics>derivatives>Table19)

What is also obvious from a comparison invited by Table 19 - - comparing June, 2005 figures with June, 2007 figures - - is the increasing systemic threat this interventional regime imposes.  Note also the dramatic jump in most categories of derivatives from June, 2005 to June, 2007


sorry, but if youy want the correct number for JPM just goole or bet go to the webside of the FED,,, i dont find the latest official table from the def ( before i download it,) if you really want to know just send me a BM and i email it to you the next days................ but you see above TOTAL NATIONAL DERIVATE stood at more than 400 TRILLION USD and JPM have a marketshare of over 20% ( TOTAL DERIVATES WORLDWIDESTOOD AT END OF JUNE 2007 at 516 trillion 467 billion  516,467 TRILLION USD


TICK...........TICK............TICK.............BUM!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[Seneque]

Naam, on 2008-01-16 11:12:40, said:

Seneque, on 2008-01-16 11:02:03, said:

the offshore rate is a creation from the Thai banks, in order for them to rip off tourists (perhaps) who use their (foreign) credit cards in this country but a sure way to make huge profits (therefore high season, more profits)

a real good one! next joke please... but wait a few minutes till i finished laughing and can start anew

To laugh at these things is the luxury of being naive ... The BOT and thai banks have always work hand in hand for the good of .... making things look good !!!

now you can laugh again, and it is close to apetizer time, so : cheers ...

[bubba]

Seneque, on 2008-01-16 11:02:03, said:

I may be wrong but there seems to be an annual fluctuation in the Baht. I've noticed over the last five years that the Baht gains against other currencies around high season time and drops again around May. Is this to make more money from tourism by giving the tourists less Baht for their currencies and make things more expensive for them?

This is correct ...
the offshore rate is a creation from the Thai banks, in order for them to rip off tourists (perhaps) who use their (foreign) credit cards in this country but a sure way to make huge profits (therefore high season, more profits)



To come back to the Thai situation, Thailand is not a sophisticated export country (except for a little computer technology) and a strong baht is definitely not helping their quality of export (mainly manpower made), plus the individual debt is at a record high. Once they realise it and blame it on whoever, expect another devaluation ...

Sorry, but I couldn't help but take a pause to chuckle at both of these uninformed and simplistic opinions. I don't suppose that last year's foreign exchange restrictions had anything to do with the wide gap between offshore and onshore baht rates, rather than a secret conspiracy on behalf of BoT and the tourism trade to "rip off" foreign tourists?

And a devaluation of the baht??? Good one.....

[lapamita]

and the last to JPM ande the futrure DERIVATE CRISIS and why the USD is weak.....

just follow up this link for the actual derivate outstandings of JPM

www.occ.treas.gov/ftp/release/2007-65a.pdf

and now look at this old report 2001 it was only 24 TRILLION USD outstanding at JPM, today 80,end of 2006 nearly 70

so compare the number

www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_02/chapmand061302.html

[Naam]

the total outstanding amount of credit derivatives does not mean necessarily anything negative for a currency (which you implied).

[Naam]

bubba, on 2008-01-16 11:39:29, said:

Sorry, but I couldn't help but take a pause to chuckle at both of these uninformed and simplistic opinions. I don't suppose that last year's foreign exchange restrictions had anything to do with the wide gap between offshore and onshore baht rates, rather than a secret conspiracy on behalf of BoT and the tourism trade to "rip off" foreign tourists?

of course not! personally i think that the KGB as well as al-Qaeda are involved in this conspiracy

[lapamita]

Naam, on 2008-01-16 13:12:59, said:

the total outstanding amount of credit derivatives does not mean necessarily anything negative for a currency (which you implied).

YES if it work legal and stadted correctly,,but if there are any imbalances in this positions it could leed to a desaster,,,followed by closing big banks, loss in savings,funds,and hunderts of hedgefunds go to hel_l.and a nosedive of stockmarket ,more bad like 1987 or 2000

and this would impact the currency !!

what measures the Privat federal reserve has, in a derivatrecrisis,they have NON !!!

and all of thisimbalences ( derivates, M3,M2,hudge inflation,low intrestrates,depts,falling industrialproduktion) are implied in the currency and the market look forward.

why gold is rising?
-- 19% M3 moneysupply ( not published by the fed since 01/2007 but counted by cantor)in dezember2007
-- the trust in pappermoney is going slowly but steadily away

and you know

since oktober 2006 JPM and BOA and some others are under protection of the state of amerika in cae of a creditdefault!!!

why they done this in 2006,,they donit because of all imbalances and a bank like JPM cant go bancrupt, because it would leed to a desaster.

if really intrested take time and google...............


sorry for some mistakes in writing but i am not english,us

[LivinLOS]

Naam, on 2008-01-16 12:12:59, said:

the total outstanding amount of credit derivatives does not mean necessarily anything negative for a currency (which you implied).

Sorry Naam.. Normally I agree with you but thats (IMO) hogwash..

So you have these multi multi trillions of derivitive instruments out there.. All interlinked and cross financed.. Much like the sub prime mess..

Now one player over extends, one of these 1000's of Hedge funds out there does a LTCM and goes belly up.. And the whole cross financed, cross valued, etc etc house of cards tumbles.. A major (or even minor) bank fails, and you think that wouldnt have any effect on a currency ??

This level or derivative gambling has never happened in all of human / financial history.. This level of debt has never been seen before.. This experiment with fiat money (USD) has only been in place since the 70s and nixon closing the gold window, thats not a long time and this ocean of debt and money supply and fractional banking has never been pulled off.

Every other time in the history of the human race that governments from Rome to now have tried to have guns and butter and a fiat currency to finance them, it has resulted in the collapse of the currency system.

I am not saying it will happen.. but I think the perception that it could is increasing.. That perception alone is enough to make money on.

[cclub75]

Old Man River, on 2008-01-15 22:33:01, said:

If you were the Governor of the BOT, what would you do to stem the appreciation of the THB, or instead do nothing?

I will certainly put some make up and I will come to the conclusion that my current policy is a total dead end.

I will stop saying to my people that "inflation is not a problem", and that "everything is fine".

I will, for once, be an adult and take responsabilities.

And if really I wanted to leave a mark, I would think about monetary integration within Asean, as a mean to stop those currencies problems... But of course, as you may know, these countries are in such a state of political corruption that I can continue to dream for a long time. Unfortunatly.

Anyway, I need to go : I've got a tea party with general Surayud (hum... i like his gray hairs and his white uniform). He's a very smart guy. I mean more than General Sonthi of course. I feel so good within the thai state apparatus... among my peers

[Old Man River]

cclub75, on 2008-01-16 13:31:38, said:

Old Man River, on 2008-01-15 22:33:01, said:

If you were the Governor of the BOT, what would you do to stem the appreciation of the THB, or instead do nothing?

I will certainly put some make up and I will come to the conclusion that my current policy is a total dead end.

I will stop saying to my people that "inflation is not a problem", and that "everything is fine".

I will, for once, be an adult and take responsabilities.

And if really I wanted to leave a mark, I would think about monetary integration within Asean, as a mean to stop those currencies problems... But of course, as you may know, these countries are in such a state of political corruption that I can continue to dream for a long time. Unfortunatly.

Anyway, I need to go : I've got a tea party with general Surayud (hum... i like his gray hairs and his white uniform). He's a very smart guy. I mean more than General Sonthi of course. I feel so good within the thai state apparatus... among my peers

Have fun.

I cannot think of any central bank head who would publicly comment that all is not well. If they did, their markets would be in turmoil assuming their markets were open. On Asean integration, this was one of the very first things Tarisa tried, but unfortunately as you know, there was little interest. Not much can be done. Some do expect the US to drop interest rates later this year and Thailand to follow, but we will see.

[wintermute]

Old Man River, on 2008-01-16 13:52:31, said:

cclub75, on 2008-01-16 13:31:38, said:

Old Man River, on 2008-01-15 22:33:01, said:

If you were the Governor of the BOT, what would you do to stem the appreciation of the THB, or instead do nothing?

I will certainly put some make up and I will come to the conclusion that my current policy is a total dead end.

I will stop saying to my people that "inflation is not a problem", and that "everything is fine".

I will, for once, be an adult and take responsabilities.

And if really I wanted to leave a mark, I would think about monetary integration within Asean, as a mean to stop those currencies problems... But of course, as you may know, these countries are in such a state of political corruption that I can continue to dream for a long time. Unfortunatly.

Anyway, I need to go : I've got a tea party with general Surayud (hum... i like his gray hairs and his white uniform). He's a very smart guy. I mean more than General Sonthi of course. I feel so good within the thai state apparatus... among my peers

Have fun.

I cannot think of any central bank head who would publicly comment that all is not well. If they did, their markets would be in turmoil assuming their markets were open. On Asean integration, this was one of the very first things Tarisa tried, but unfortunately as you know, there was little interest. Not much can be done. Some do expect the US to drop interest rates later this year and Thailand to follow, but we will see.

Of course you're right but so far the BOT people haven't shown an awful lot of financial acumen. Their financial policy reversals have been disastrous (the 30% withholding law) and their policies inconsistent. Also, this is Thailand they will deliberately understate a lot of problems much more than even the west. If you think subprime is bad in the U.S. I can't imagine the blatant and not so blatant fraud going on in Thailand. Just look at the skyrocketing condo unit prices that are speculator driven. Some of the speculators are heavily leveraged with sketchy loans and depend on selling to other speculators.

If you're a thai citizen with the financial connections and have advanced knowledge of options/futures manipulation it's pretty much a money making disneyland here. I really do believe that before the west shakes out its subprime credit issues Thailand will be hit with something similar but I believe it will be worse. I'm not calling a '97 all over again but I think a serious credit/loan fallout will be coming.

Bad signs on the horizon with inflation..currency appreciation..reduced export demand..political turmoil..and bad loans.

Edited by wintermute, 2008-01-16 14:12:07.

[chrislarsson]

gregybn, on 2008-01-16 01:19:57, said:

Quote

Contrary to the common belief that inflation is an increase in the Consumer Price Index (CPI), the classical definition of
inflation is an increase in the money supply, which results in price increases.

I'm sorry, but this is complete rubbish. If the increase of money supply is too high, it will surely cause inflation. But there is nothing like Inflation = Increase in money supply.

Wikipedia has good information about Inflation if you like to know more.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Inflation

[Thai at Heart]

ace, on 2008-01-14 11:33:04, said:

I don't see why the falling $ is seen as a problem (apart from for expats). For years the US has been running a massive current account deficit, the domestic markets, especially cars, struggling against the rest of the World. What better way to redress this than a weaker currency?

Because this region has just got back on its feet after the crisis, which caused a massive growth in export industries.  Unfortunately, a large percentage of these industries price their goods in USD so they are struggling.