Laopo,
I don't dispute that it worked. I'm saying that he won't be able to replicate that success because the conditions and the problems are vastly different now.
That success looked big because the affected companies hit the rock bottom a couple of years earlier. It wasn't a jump, they just levelled up to their normal state. That momentum is lost. In fact Thaksin has run out of ideas as early as in 2004.
He banked on infrastructure, as does pretty much everyone else, but it won't be a jumpstart, it takes time to get projects going and even more time to see effects on the whole economy. I don't think people are prepared to wait. They waited for over a year (2001 growth of only 1.8%) but I don't think they'll wait now.
Thai Junta Call It Quits, Vows No More Coups
Started by george, 2008-01-22 17:06
#52
hammered
Titanium Member Posted 2008-01-23 11:39:24
What does it mean, democracy? Democracy is a political system which has many different meanings and can take different forms. It is often incorrectly used as a synonym for capitalism. Fundamentally, it means a government of, by and for the people. Economic Democracy: An idea that people should have equal access to and say in the distribution of the wealth and resources of a country. Electoral Democracy: The idea "that, to be legitimate, government authority must derive from periodic free, fair, broadly particpatory, and genuinely contested elections. Participatory Democracy. A system by which people have direct say in policies that effect them without the mediating influence of elected or other governmental officials. Representative Democracy: A system whereby people select others to represent their interests in government rather than having direct influence or say over such decisions. The people now in charge need to get a good kick in the butt and told they have to do whatever it takes to help all people in Thailand, and to make Thailand the country it deserves to be. Look at Sg, in 50 years they created a country that can compete with most Western countries.. Get rid of the Mai Pen Rai attitude and face thing and start working on education following Western standards. It is not that difficult. And where they regualrly lock up opposition politicains and media people for expressing opinions. That might not be the kind of democracy people want for Thailand. #53
Plus
Star Member Posted 2008-01-23 11:46:05 Quote And where they regualrly lock up opposition politicains and media people for expressing opinions. That might not be the kind of democracy people want for Thailand. Are you sure about that? #54
hammered
Titanium Member Posted 2008-01-23 11:48:36
Quote Maybe I missed something here, but Mr. Thaksin was duly elected with a large majority. You missed the case of a massive electoral fraud, for example. Things like breaking into Election Commission database and falsifying official records. Quote Thailand thrived while Thaksin was in office. High stock market returns, low unemployment, paid off the IMF loan early... It worked like this: When he came to power about 25-30% of bank loans were non-performing. That was bad for the banks and kept interest rates high, it was bad for the companies themselves. So our man of the people Thaksin gave 70bil to Village Fund to play with, and at the same time gave 700bil to pay for bankrtupt companies. Note the priorities. Out of bankrupcy, relieved of loan burdens, companies posted immediate profits, got back on the exchange, or got listed. It was a one time massive surge in Thai stock market and it's over now, we are back to usual business. Some companies seek listings elsewere, some have delisted, euphoria of early years of Thaksin is not there anymore. Obstacles to business growth that are present now are not as easy to remove as buying private debts with public money (tough political gamble but over all a fairly easy task). Try holding the baht at 35 level instead. Last time they tried they crashed the economy to the ground. Banks, btw, were able to slash interests rates and there was a huge rise in consumer spending on big things like cars and houses but consumer confidence is very low now, and it's not going to improve unless there's a big turnaround in the economy, which is unlikely. It was reproted yesterday that PPP are goign to try and get the baht back to 35 to the dollar and hold it there. Could be a rocky road. That will certainly influence who wants to be finance minister too! #55
geriatrickid
The consensus is that I am most excellent. Posted 2008-01-23 11:48:57
Quote Maybe I missed something here, but Mr. Thaksin was duly elected with a large majority. Things like breaking into Election Commission database and falsifying official records. Aren't these unproven allegations? Doesn't he have to be convicted in a court of law? Perhaps, there was electoral fraud, I'm not naive, but the size of his majority was such that he didn't need that cushion. It might remind some of the oldtimers of the Nixon era Watergate break in that wasn't necessary since Nixon was on his way to victory anyway. I know Thaksin wasn't perfect and there were questionable election practices. But if it were perfect in the world, Mr. Bush probably would not have been President, elections in India, the world's biggest democracy, would fall apart, and a few European governments in the former east bloc would have to resign. The democratic process as flawed as it was and still is, seems to me a better option than the alternative of a military junta etc. When you toss aside a democratic process result you end up with a result like Pakistan. #56
Plus
Star Member Posted 2008-01-23 11:56:37
Unproven allegations? Court of law?
Have you heard of Constitutional Tribunal dissolving TRT? I understand you can say that you/Thaksin/PPP don't recognise that court, but the fact is they didn't dispute the court findings and the verdict, only jurisdiction. They'd be declared guilty under any reasonable court. It's not the question of popularity. Their offences are unacceptable. #57
hammered
Titanium Member Posted 2008-01-23 11:57:01
Quote And where they regualrly lock up opposition politicains and media people for expressing opinions. That might not be the kind of democracy people want for Thailand. Are you sure about that? A simple google search gives examples. They have actually had to lessen the practice since the advent of blogs as it was getting larger exposure outside of Sg itself. Opposition leader Chee Soon Juan is just one high profile example. In Sg peopel can be imprisned indefintley without charge or trial. Chia Thye Poh was imprisoned for 32 without either. Not exactly what we would call democratic. The ruling family will also destroy people through huge money defamation suits and use the threat of these immediately anyone says anything even vaguely detrimental about them. It is an effective detternet. #58
PhilHarries
Titanium Member Posted 2008-01-23 11:57:54
As for Suvannaphum, I firmly believe Thaksin would not have allowed to have this turned in a saga-without-end, and now permanently be stuck with two airports. I think he would have prioritized the fixing of whatever was left to do to make it a world class airport. A lot I think is just the final dotting of i's and crossing of t's. #59
A_Traveller
What do you want? Information. You're not going to get it. Posted 2008-01-23 12:01:32
Quote And where they regualrly lock up opposition politicains and media people for expressing opinions. That might not be the kind of democracy people want for Thailand. Are you sure about that? Regards Link to a summary blog Edited by A_Traveller, 2008-01-23 12:02:41. #60
hammered
Titanium Member Posted 2008-01-23 12:03:17
As for Suvannaphum, I firmly believe Thaksin would not have allowed to have this turned in a saga-without-end, and now permanently be stuck with two airports. I think he would have prioritized the fixing of whatever was left to do to make it a world class airport. A lot I think is just the final dotting of i's and crossing of t's. The real Suvannaphum issue back then was turning the airport and surrounding areas into a new self governeing province under the PM's office not like any other province. Obviously the money that could be made by those controlling this would have been monumental. It is funny this is not talked about anymore. I wonder if PPP intend to resurrect this policy. #61
hammered
Titanium Member Posted 2008-01-23 12:07:42
Quote And where they regualrly lock up opposition politicains and media people for expressing opinions. That might not be the kind of democracy people want for Thailand. Are you sure about that? Regards Link to a summary blog Linking this into Thailand. It can be argued that the kind of democracy that Thaksin saw for Thailand was based on the kind in Singapore - paternalistic taking care of those who did the right thing and coming down hard on opponents. It certainly is a model that will debated in Asia as it has delivered econmic prosperity but at a certain cost. As one Sg expat said to me a number of years ago - the day we peopel no longer have money in our pockets is the day we wont put up with it any more and that family will have to flee - all about balances. #62
TAWP
Libertarian Member Posted 2008-01-23 12:08:48
Quote And where they regualrly lock up opposition politicains and media people for expressing opinions. That might not be the kind of democracy people want for Thailand. Are you sure about that? A simple google search gives examples. They have actually had to lessen the practice since the advent of blogs as it was getting larger exposure outside of Sg itself. Opposition leader Chee Soon Juan is just one high profile example. In Sg peopel can be imprisned indefintley without charge or trial. Chia Thye Poh was imprisoned for 32 without either. Not exactly what we would call democratic. The ruling family will also destroy people through huge money defamation suits and use the threat of these immediately anyone says anything even vaguely detrimental about them. It is an effective detternet. You mean like how Thaksin sued people for huge amounts...? #63
sriracha john
Star Member Posted 2008-01-23 12:08:56
I'm sure I will be in a minority on this but I felt the military did something necessary for the good of the country and had no complaints about how they managed things once the remarkably smooth 'coup' was completed. As I recall, most falanges referred to Taksin and "Toxin"...and he was well on his way to trying to achieve a dictatorship and probably drain the Thai Treasury, much like George Bush has done in mine! Just because you have civilians running things doesn't mean they run smoothly or democratically. Thanks to corporate control of practically everything in America now, including all of the mainstream media and both Houses of Congress, it is very close to being a completely Fascist state. I just wish some of our more reasonable Generals (most of whom have been retired now) had ousted Dubya before he invaded Iraq and looted our Treasury...and then borrowed billions more! What a disaster he and Chaney have been! Unfortunately, the already media-declared 'front runners' for the next presidential term have already sold out to the corporate powers also. Thailand's solution to excessive greed & reckless political power was clean, quick, and effective. They got a lot of criticism but this country has not gone into the toilet like Amerika, nor start wars with other countries just to keep the voters confused and distracted. I hope the new civilian government will work out but also hope the new Constitution will put a little more constraints on the powers of the P.M. over the will & benefit of this nation! Chok dee, Thailand!!!  I will try to contact our next president (Mike Huckabee) and see if he will pray for you, for it sounds like you are in need of some strong prayer. In the mean time when you wake up tomorrow try this, go to the mirror and say ten times "I will not be a bitter old man today, and I will compliment my Thai guests and try to engage in random acts of kindness" you will be amazed how much better you feel, and eventually you might even get that chip off your shoulder and stop hating your mother country  Please let me know if this helps, it sounds like just the medicine you require!Can we presume from the above that you never went to the below?
A few years back if memory serves correct, there was a program whereby a farang could study buddisim with thai monks for 6 months and earn some sort of certificate that would lead to a type of special visa. Does anyone out there remember such a program, or is it just my imagination. Once again thanks in advance for anyones help in this matter. #64
Jai Dee
Star Member Posted 2008-01-23 12:25:44
Army Chief declines to comment on new defence minister
Army Chief and Deputy Secretary-General of the Council for National Security (CNS), Gen.Anupong Paochinda (อนุพงษ์ เผ่าจินดา), declines to comment on the new defence minister following CNS’s remark that the new minister should be former military officer who is not affiliated with any political party. The army chief says CNS gave remark on the new defence minister not because of its concerns over the coalition government. He also declines to say whether ex-army chief Gen. Somthat Attanant (สมทัต อัตตะนันทน์) is suitable for the post. Gen Anupong also dismissed rumours that he had previously requested the coalition government to appoint Gen. Prawit Wongsuwan (ประวิตร วงศ์สุวรรณ) as new defence minister. In addition, Gen. Anupong also shrugged off rumours allegeing his close ties with the Shinawatra family, adding that CNS and the Shinawatra Family will not discuss deposed Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra’s return to Thailand. Source: Thai National News Bureau Public Relations Department - 23 January 2008 #65
Lilawadee
Senior Member Posted 2008-01-23 12:32:22
Unproven allegations? Court of law? Have you heard of Constitutional Tribunal dissolving TRT? Yes. Here is the background. Please read it. : http://en.wikipedia....rty_dissolution Wikipedia said: The party's future became in doubt following the military coup that overthrew Thaksin's government in September 2006. The party was dissolved on May 30, 2007 by the order of the Constitutional Tribunal for violation of election laws.[2][18] A few high-ranking party members were found to be directly involved in bribing several small parties into competing in constituencies that were bases of the former opposition parties to ensure that minimum turnout rules were met. One hundred and eleven members of the party, including former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra, were barred from participating in politics for a five-year period, with only eight out of the 119 charged acquitted. In short, they were punished for trying to get an election result as a consequence of the "Democrat" party's boycott and derailment of democracy. They were not accused of (or punished for) what you allege, the buying of votes. Heck, even PPP didn't get punished for that and they were in a FAR more difficult position to win an election compared to TRT under Thaksin, who won successive landslide victories in elections that also independent observers say were the most free from vote buying ever. (Because there was obviously less need for it, but still). Quote I understand you can say that you/Thaksin/PPP don't recognize that court, but the fact is they didn't dispute the court findings and the verdict, only jurisdiction. They'd be declared guilty under any reasonable court. It's not the question of popularity. Their offenses are unacceptable. I disagree. Their ONLY offense was to try to get smaller parties to run in a handful of districts where the democrats exploited a loophole in the election laws whereby they could hold the whole country to a stalemate by derailing the election process through a boycott. So even if I could bring myself to find that unacceptable, then I find the "Democrat" party's actiosn even MORE unacceptable. The verdict came about under a military junta who wanted that verdict, so I'll leave it up to anyone's individual opinion on how fair that verdict was. #66
Captain Chaos
Chaotic Member Posted 2008-01-23 12:50:59
Quote And where they regualrly lock up opposition politicains and media people for expressing opinions. That might not be the kind of democracy people want for Thailand. Are you sure about that? Regards Link to a summary blog Linking this into Thailand. It can be argued that the kind of democracy that Thaksin saw for Thailand was based on the kind in Singapore - paternalistic taking care of those who did the right thing and coming down hard on opponents. It certainly is a model that will debated in Asia as it has delivered econmic prosperity but at a certain cost. As one Sg expat said to me a number of years ago - the day we peopel no longer have money in our pockets is the day we wont put up with it any more and that family will have to flee - all about balances. Some valid comments there ... the PAP regime in Singapore survives because it has brought relative advancement and prosperity to what was a tiny island with not much more than some banana plantations and a port when the Brits left. It may - arguably - be considered to fit the description of "benevolant dictatorship". In addition, whilst there is alleged to be a lot of top-level nepotism going on in Singapore, there is not the huge problem of out and out corruption that riddles Thai economic affairs. I am personally not convinced that this was in any way similar to Mr Thaksin's view of Thai government - to me it looked more like how could he make Thai government policy an extension of ShinCorp's interests... As Hammered's quote says, what would happen if the PAP regime was no longer able to deliver consistent economic advancement, is open to debate. Personally, I'd say that most of Singapore's neighbours are such relative basket cases by comparison that the Sing regime would have to really, really try to screw things up to lose their edge... Just my two satangs worth, after 4 years working in BKK and about 18 months here in Singapore now. CC #67
Plus
Star Member Posted 2008-01-23 13:03:54
Hold on, I never said they were dissolved for vote buying.
And NO, the reason for them to go into all these troubles was not Democrat's boycott, it was because they couldn't muster 20% of votes. They could have easily won if they beat that threshold, even with vote buying. I don't see this reason as a justification "to try to get smaller parties to run in a handful of districts" - what an interesting description of what really happened. Some of these small parties didn't even exist. They were fakes, forgeries, fraud, staffed with fake candidates with fake credentials. True, only several executives were directly involved, but it was Chaturon's self-implicating testimony that sealed TRT's fate. He testified that the party knew about the problem and but it didn't take any steps to rectify it, condemn this behaviour, or start any internal proceeding against the perpetrators. The court had no other choice. #68
Plus
Star Member Posted 2008-01-23 13:05:48
Quote And where they regualrly lock up opposition politicains and media people for expressing opinions. That might not be the kind of democracy people want for Thailand. Are you sure about that? A simple google search gives examples. ... Errrr. There's a misunderstanding. My question relates to the sentence in bold, not to practices of SG government. #69
hammered
Titanium Member Posted 2008-01-23 13:17:36
Quote And where they regualrly lock up opposition politicains and media people for expressing opinions. That might not be the kind of democracy people want for Thailand. Are you sure about that? A simple google search gives examples. ... Errrr. There's a misunderstanding. My question relates to the sentence in bold, not to practices of SG government. Apologies. There are many people in Thailand who would like exactly that kind of democracy. imho #70
Seneque
Senior Member Posted 2008-01-23 13:19:01
I forget the number but Thailand has a ridiculous amount of Generals and one wonders what they actually do as Thailand has never fought a war and has relatively peaceful borders these days. There is an old joke about Thailand being invaded whilst the Generals were out playing golf. Many Thai politicions and in particular the Thai Rak Thai (PPP) are ethnic Chinese and are connected to either a banking empire or a corporation involved in large scale dealings that often involve the Government. Many simply have a family member enter politics just to protect the empires interests. A friend of mine actually tried to join the Thai Rak Thai and run for a seat in Bangkok for the above reasons. Just to sign up he had pay something like 15 million baht and any position higher had a huge price like 150 million or more depending on the access to graft and kickbacks on offer. I never asked why but soon after working as an assistant to Thaksin he left in disgust and moved out of Bangkok to the country. The Thai system works like this, you want a higher position you must pay your superiors to get it. A Policeman for example will be promoted according to what he can bring in graft and how much favour he curries with the brass who have the power to promote him. Once promoted he must then graft and scam at a higher level to first recoup his payment for the job and then save money to buy his next promotion. This happens at every level in all services in Thailand and especially in the armed forces, police etc. Thaksin himself made his start in tandem with Pojamans father who was a General in the Police. Thaksin left the Police to go into telecomunications and his first big score involved selling computers to the Police at the usual highly ramped price. From there onwards he built his empire by paying for sweet heart deals for his mobile phone concessions etc. By the time he entered politics he had a large empire up and running but he needed the protection politics provided so imbedded himself slowely and carefully into the system biding his time while he made connections and networked. Meglomaniac is the perfect word for him as he was already very rich and could have done a lot for the country. He instead put his own selfish interests before that of the countries. The larger his wallet grew the larger his ego grew and he simply became a greedy despot who dismantled and corrupted virtually all checks and balances that were in place to oversee justice. (Not that they were ever that good to start with) Now we have turned a full circle with Samak, Sanoh, Sanan, and Barharn back in power and the likes of Police Captain Chalerm Yubumrung to be appointed Interior minister. This alone is enough to send shivers up most peoples spines. In any other country most of these people would probably be either in jail serving long jail sentences or under investigation for corporate crimes, corruption etc. The big joke to me is Samak has already been sentenced to 2 years jail for defaming somebody but he just laughs it all off as he knows he will never go to jail. The previous set of election officials were also jailed for 2 years but not one of them will go to jail either. In fact in the 24 years I have followed Thai politics I cannot remember one politicion being convicted of corruption or jailed except the Banker who got jailed after the crash of 97. I guess he lost some important guys cash  Dead on ... like i said somewhere, thailand is going backward and the world won't wait ... and it is very sad ! (OK, i've to go with better things to do like watch the airhostess show  !)
#71
meadish_sweetball
The Hubgoblin Posted 2008-01-23 13:19:52
people call the junta as inept will no doubt be eating their words after the PPP get back in. The bunch of clowns - the ones that bought you Suwannapoom - are back and wont be able to help themselves in getting their snouts in the trough. In the face of a global economic downturn, PPP are unlikely to be able to maintain the same shiny 'Thaksinomics' facade TRT did, and might lose a large percentage of their voter base due to this when the effects of the recession become apparent. #72
Scott
Star Member Posted 2008-01-23 13:21:17
People need to remember that democracy is a process, but so is taking a crap. One just hopes that the results aren't the same.
#73
Lilawadee
Senior Member Posted 2008-01-23 14:32:05
people call the junta as inept will no doubt be eating their words after the PPP get back in. The bunch of clowns - the ones that bought you Suwannapoom - are back and wont be able to help themselves in getting their snouts in the trough. In the face of a global economic downturn, PPP are unlikely to be able to maintain the same shiny 'Thaksinomics' facade TRT did, and might lose a large percentage of their voter base due to this when the effects of the recession become apparent. Yes I very much agree with that. All will be decided by the way they handle such a crises, if they make the right decisions to get the country past that crisis as soon as possible, or not. If not then I for one will be very happy to see them get VOTED out of office. [See, a lot of people seem to think that I actually like PPP or Samak or anything. Of course I realize that for my own regular pasty middle class butt, a Democrat government would likely be more beneficial. For me personally. I simply cannot accept and will not accept or condone a military coup and the precedent that it sets for the future, when the fabric of Thailand will be a lot less stable than today. My only hope that Thailand could weather future severe instability depended (depends) on the timely establishment of a strong democratic system of governance. That is now completely out the window and we're back in the Banharn & Chavalit years; weak and self-serving 'coalitions of opportunity' that can be pushed aside by the military really very easily. My personal 'best case scenario' would involve something like the Democrats becoming a lot more pro-active in reaching out to the whole of the country, and winning an election after the current coalition fails because of economic woes. I hope that government can then instill a true sense of democracy, with the PPP electorate moving towards a social-democratic type of party and the Democrats to a liberal one (Liberal in a European sense). And there isn't unlimited time for that to happen, but it is my hope. #74
Bagwan
Bagwan Posted 2008-01-23 16:47:11
True. But at least there's accountability to the people who can vote you out of office. #75
geriatrickid
The consensus is that I am most excellent. Posted 2008-01-23 21:17:08
Wow. That was very well written. Thanks.  edit- Refer to post 67. Edited by geriatrickid, 2008-01-23 21:18:50. |
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