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[Khun Jean]

britmaveric, on 2008-02-25 22:16:10, said:

^^^ in the minority I might add. Most of thailand supports Mr T.

Ahum, they don't. Check your numbers.

[Johpa]

KireB, on 2008-02-25 21:08:05, said:

britmaveric, on 2008-02-25 20:52:45, said:

toss the lot in jail - there interest is only in causing divisiveness in thailand.

These people are the only ones in this country who have the guts to stand up and fight the corruption.
Sure toss them in jail, that what's probably gonna happen anyway. I hope you're being sarcastic.

Thai society is sick; it's corrupt and greedy and selfishness seems to be a national moral value.
Respect to those who dare to take it to the streets. PAD go for it.

Their only interest, especially Sondhi, is that there not be a another PM like Thaksin who refused to share the pie to their own peculiar standards of appropriateness. All the groups still hold that old school Thai belief that politics is all about kin muang.

[Indo-Siam]

My prediction:

1. PPP is about to announce the date of Thaksin's return - and they intend to exonerate him of any charges against him. They will announce a return date that is a few weeks (or months) in the future.

2. The PAD will get worked up over this, and will begin a series of ever-larger protest rallies - backed by Bangkokians and students. These rallies will grow to huge size as the date of Thaksin's return approaches. The PPP will generally not interfere.

3. Just before Thaksin's return, the PPP will bring to Bangkok several hundred thousand rural (pro-Thaksin) Thais from northern and northeastern Thailand - to counter-balance the urban anti-Thaksin crowds. As Thaksin arrives, a virtual civil war will break out - right in Bangkok (Sanam Luang and Ratchadamnoen).

4. The Army will be called in to stop the civil unrest - and will do so by basically eliminating - for keeps - the leadership of one faction.

Point #4 is the goal of the PAD. The PAD does not really like the military - but it will use the military to clean house of the old Thaksin guard. The military really does not want to run the country - it is actually a better organization than it is given credit for being. So - it will eventually hand power back. But - this time - there won't be any remnants of the TRT left standing.

It will be a mess - but things have to get sorted out.

I'm guessing that the events will be at their most intense level in late April. The PAD will do what it has to do to orchestrate the scenario above. It will actually sacrifice a lot of good Thais - maybe even itself - to get the final goal accomplished.

The only way out for the PPP is to cut the PAD off at the knees early on - and prevent the early demonstrations from even getting started.

No place in all of this for foreigners to even get involved. It is time for Thais to sort themselves out.

Sadly, the next uprising is going to be a lot less benign than last time. Ultimately, I guess everything will work out for the best - whatever that is.

I sure hope that I'm wrong about all of the above.

[britmaveric]

I predict PAD will be crushed then MR T will return in triumph and it will be same same as it ever was.

[bulmercke]

Jakrapob blames PAD for abusing media freedom - THE NATION - 25.02.08 -

PM's Office Minister Jakrapob Penkair on Monday shrugged off criticism about his meddling with the media, saying the public would be the judge for his performance.

"The People's Alliance for Democracy is known for causing social divisions and my job as the PM's Office minister is to foster reconciliation and unity in society," he said, refusing to react to the PAD's accusation that he was interfering with the press freedom.

Jakrapob said his critics from the PAD should reflect on their activities instead of attacking him.

"Some PAD leaders have exploited the media to propagate their political beliefs, hence impacting on the reputation of the local press," he said.

One untruth after another - total spin - putting it nicely!

QUOTE(Indo-Siam):"The only way out for the PPP is to cut the PAD off at the knees early on - and prevent the early demonstrations from even getting started."

I agree. Jakrapob Penkair seems to be laying the foundations for the criminalising and eventual outlawing of the PAD and the arrest of it's leaders.

Ireally don't like this guy.

[sriracha john]

Thaksin regime revival will see street protests: PAD

The People's Alliance for Democracy issued a statement yesterday warning of an "eruption of chaos if the government acts as a puppet of the Thaksin regime."

"It has been proven clearly that the Samak Sundaravej government is, in fact, the reflection of the Thaksin Shinawatra administration," the PAD said in its statement.

It claimed the government was working to benefit one man, the ousted prime minister Thaksin, instead of serving 63 million people.

The government "meddled with media reports, removed DSI Chief Sunai Manomai-udom - who was in charge of many cases involving Thaksin - and promoted Thawee Sodsong, seen as a Thaksin ally, to replace Sunai, just days ahead of the announcement of Thaksin's planned return," it said.

The PAD statement said it anticipated the revival of street protests and resolved:

= PAD activities will resume once again to counter the Samak government seen as bent on serving the Thaksin regime.

= The Election Commission should punish those involved in campaign violations and petition the Constitution Court for a judicial review to dismantle the People Power Party on grounds it was a nominee of the disbanded Thai Rak Thai Party.

= Prime Minister Samak should prove his loyalty to the Monarchy by ceasing to be a Thaksin puppet.

= The government should review its transfer orders designed to help Thaksin and his family members elude the law.

= Opposition to Thaksin's return would continue while there are attempts to tamper with legal and judicial proceedings. PAD would not oppose Thaksin returning to fight his charges without interfering with the judiciary.

= The Samak government must stop intimidating the media.

= People, including civil servants, soldiers and policemen - should unite in monitoring the activities of politicians and bureaucrats loyal to the Thaksin administration in order to brace themselves to battle the regime.

- The Nation

[Tony Clifton]

Jakaprob is the most dangerous man in that party but should be the first to have the carpet pulled from under his feet.
He'll never know what hit him.

This new government gives me the creeps.
I have never wanted to move my family out of here as much as I do now.

Edited by Tony Clifton, 2008-02-26 02:46:03.

[DP25]

Indo-Siam, on 2008-02-25 23:08:28, said:

Sadly, the next uprising is going to be a lot less benign than last time. Ultimately, I guess everything will work out for the best - whatever that is.

I sure hope that I'm wrong about all of the above.

I completely agree with your assessment. And frankly, it it really scares me and I'm not sure I want to be in Thailand when it all goes down. I'm worried that the PPP will smash the protesters so hard it will make Black Monday look like a picnic.

Good luck to the PAD though, they're going to have to be much braver than last time.

[chevykanteve]

Anyone hear any followup-news regarding the jail sentence handed down to Sondhi Limthongkul a few months back? Obviously, he's not in jail.... yet.

[chevykanteve]

Johpa, on 2008-02-25 22:52:42, said:

KireB, on 2008-02-25 21:08:05, said:

britmaveric, on 2008-02-25 20:52:45, said:

toss the lot in jail - there interest is only in causing divisiveness in thailand.

These people are the only ones in this country who have the guts to stand up and fight the corruption.
Sure toss them in jail, that what's probably gonna happen anyway. I hope you're being sarcastic.

Thai society is sick; it's corrupt and greedy and selfishness seems to be a national moral value.
Respect to those who dare to take it to the streets. PAD go for it.

Their only interest, especially Sondhi, is that there not be a another PM like Thaksin who refused to share the pie to their own peculiar standards of appropriateness. All the groups still hold that old school Thai belief that politics is all about kin muang.

Yes, and Sondhi would appear to admit as much when he agreed with interviewer Shawn W. Crispin (Asia Times, April 27, 2007) that he held the role of DEFACTO SPOKESMAN OF THE FEUDAL ELITE.

[KireB]

DP25, on 2008-02-26 03:50:38, said:

Indo-Siam, on 2008-02-25 23:08:28, said:

Sadly, the next uprising is going to be a lot less benign than last time. Ultimately, I guess everything will work out for the best - whatever that is.

I sure hope that I'm wrong about all of the above.

I completely agree with your assessment. And frankly, it it really scares me and I'm not sure I want to be in Thailand when it all goes down. I'm worried that the PPP will smash the protesters so hard it will make Black Monday look like a picnic.

Good luck to the PAD though, they're going to have to be much braver than last time.

With this in mind, PAD has a function. Society is sick. There's no true democracy, because I feel that the Samak/Thaksin groups will react violently. What is democracy anyway? The George Bush version, definitely not!

Remember all, the last coup started with Thaksin supporters beating up old men and ladies during, at that point, peaceful protests. Threats were made that forest rangers would attack another PAD gathering.
The PAD protested against Thaksin, who in his position as PM changed the laws on foreign business ownership, and consequently sold his stake in Shin.

In countries so sick and and corrupted, its either protests or revolution. It's inevitable.

And to say that the majority voted/wants Thaksin/Samak is true, but not for the absolute number of braincells/IQ.
Let's be honest. Even Hitler would win in a landslide in this country, where people have no involvement what so ever.
Mai pen rai.

[sriracha john]

chevykanteve, on 2008-02-26 03:59:19, said:

Anyone hear any followup-news regarding the jail sentence handed down to Sondhi Limthongkul a few months back? Obviously, he's not in jail.... yet.

He's out on bail during the appeal, exactly the same as the Prime Minister, who has been convicted of exactly the same charge.

[sriracha john]

Indo-Siam, on 2008-02-25 23:08:28, said:

My prediction:

1. PPP is about to announce the date of Thaksin's return - and they intend to exonerate him of any charges against him. They will announce a return date that is a few weeks (or months) in the future.

If one can believe Thaksin's website, it'll be in a few days, on Thursday, Feb. 28.

[plachon]

Johpa, on 2008-02-25 15:52:42, said:

KireB, on 2008-02-25 21:08:05, said:

britmaveric, on 2008-02-25 20:52:45, said:

toss the lot in jail - there interest is only in causing divisiveness in thailand.

These people are the only ones in this country who have the guts to stand up and fight the corruption.
Sure toss them in jail, that what's probably gonna happen anyway. I hope you're being sarcastic.

Thai society is sick; it's corrupt and greedy and selfishness seems to be a national moral value.
Respect to those who dare to take it to the streets. PAD go for it.

Their only interest, especially Sondhi, is that there not be a another PM like Thaksin who refused to share the pie to their own peculiar standards of appropriateness. All the groups still hold that old school Thai belief that politics is all about kin muang.

I think you do a disservice to many in the PAD, if not most. What evidence do you have that people like Suriyasai or Pipob have ever gin muang themselves or supported others to?

Quite curious Johpa, as you normally come across as having a good grasp on Thai politics, but this time you've lost me.

[jayjayjayjay]

chevykanteve, on 2008-02-25 18:05:39, said:

At this point in time in Thailand's history, it might be in the interest of certain PAD so-called "core-leaders" to concentrate on their respective vocations: a certain news-media magnate should perhaps stick to news-media-related matters and a certain cult leader should perhaps perfect his vipassana meditation techniques. Mr. Chalerm and ohers may now be thinking in terms of once bitten, twice shy. It would be ironic to read future news reports concerning PAD members living permanently abroad: ironic, but perhaps inevitable and deservingly so in the interest of stability in this country.

The movie stars they are, craving for the spot light!

[jayjayjayjay]

h90, on 2008-02-25 19:14:29, said:

chevykanteve, on 2008-02-25 18:05:39, said:

At this point in time in Thailand's history, it might be in the interest of certain PAD so-called "core-leaders" to concentrate on their respective vocations: a certain news-media magnate should perhaps stick to news-media-related matters and a certain cult leader should perhaps perfect his vipassana meditation techniques. Mr. Chalerm and ohers may now be thinking in terms of once bitten, twice shy. It would be ironic to read future news reports concerning PAD members living permanently abroad: ironic, but perhaps inevitable and deservingly so in the interest of stability in this country.

And give all Thailands right, money direct to the corrupt, never realy electected Dictator Thaksin (200 Baht for one vote before this time even more)

h90, get real, prove it! I have been to many polling booths with my wife, O baht paid and TRT and PPP won each time. I repeat, prove it, your hearsay is boring and without thought or consideration that a majority of Thai's have again chosen there desitiny, and it's NOT the Demorcrat Party....... accept it unless you have something intelligent to say.

[John K]

I agree this will not be good, and if I missed it the PAD should spell out exactly where the government tampered with the courts/legal system that is one of their key issues. I agree with the majority of your posts that this will not be good. There is one thing that seems to be missing and that it is was Thaksin’s goal to call for martial law in Bangkok. It appears he is not making the same mistakes twice. Martial law will probably come if any of the PAD protesters so much as fart citing it as an attack. under martial law they can stop any investigation into the corruption.

Edited by John K, 2008-02-26 09:41:31.

[steveromagnino]

britmaveric, on 2008-02-25 22:16:10, said:

^^^ in the minority I might add. Most of thailand supports Mr T.

can we stop repeating this?

If that was the case PPP would have won a massive outright majority....and we know FOR A FACT that they did not.

I do however agree with your assessment, this was the reason for the coup in the first place, as Newin allegedly had a mob coming in to clash with PAD the next day so that a state of martial law could be called and Thaksin could take effective control of the military arm once and for all with the country's support.

Sadly for him..... it didn't work that time.

THis time.....I suspect it will.

The guy is a total dickhead, and unlike others I say that as someone who sort of knows him and his party.

[sriracha john]

Interior Minister warns PAD about rally against ex-PM’s return

Interior Minister Chalerm Yoobamrung says objections against the return to the country of ex-premier Thaksin Shinawatra by the People’s Alliance for Democracy (PAD) might be deemed illegal.

However, the minister affirms he will facilitate and provide security for PAD during their demonstrations as long as the protestors behave in line with laws. He also voiced support for movements to inspect the government and expressed his confidence that there will be no clash between the protestors and the authorities.

Regarding concerns that the cases of the former premier might be interfered with, the minister says it is not easy to influence the panels of judges in charge of the cases.

- ThaiNews

-----------------------------------------------------------------

"not easy, but still quite do-able"

[John K]

I think this is more bark than bite from the legal or illegal point. This exact case came to court with the exact same players and the PAD won. Clearly Thaksin is uncomfortable with this. The next question is has the Forest service been rearmed yet?

[Plus]

PAD represents millions of Thais who are fed up with Thaksin. They will always have leaders, not matter what. Neither Sondhi nor Sonhti claim that they handled Thaskin singlehandedly - their only strenght was in massive public support.

PAD leaders have been quiet for nearly two years because that was the mood among their supporters but with return of Thaksin that is bound to change, and the leaders must be ready to take charge. They are preparing themselves now, nothing unusual about that.

[h90]

britmaveric, on 2008-02-25 20:21:19, said:

no sarcasm here, deadly serious - PAD should try smth novel and win an election. Anything else is simply undemocratic and hinders the govt from functioning.

when do we have a free and fair election?

[dr_Pat_Pong]

sriracha john, on 2008-02-26 07:41:50, said:

Indo-Siam, on 2008-02-25 23:08:28, said:

My prediction:

1. PPP is about to announce the date of Thaksin's return - and they intend to exonerate him of any charges against him. They will announce a return date that is a few weeks (or months) in the future.

If one can believe Thaksin's website, it'll be in a few days, on Thursday, Feb. 28.

Returning from self imposed political exile can be injurious to one's health.

[Scott]

Well, it looks like the good times are going to begin again, soon!

[sriracha john]

Chalerm: Obstructing Thaksin return may be illegal

Attempts by anti-Thaksin groups to obstruct the return of the ousted premier on Thursday may be deemed illegal, Interior Minister Chalerm Yubamrung said Tuesday. Chalerm's statement, although he did not elaborate, came in response to People's Alliance for Democracy (PAD)'s move on Monday to regroup and to try to block or protest the return of Thaksin. PAD said it did not object to Thaksin's return to the country if he enters a judicial system that is free of interference. But it said his regime interfered in the system so he remained a problem. Chalerm said he is ready to facilitate the deposed PM if the PAD holds demonstrations. He also said he will receive Thaksin himself at Suvarnabhumi airport. PM's Office Minister Jakrapob Penkair called on every party to bring the country back to normalcy. He also warned the PAD not to stage any violent activity against Thaksin's return, because it could dampen hope for an improved economy.

Continued here:
http://www.bangkokpost.com/breaking_news/b...s.php?id=126158

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

The instigator and leader of a riot is warning others not to be violent??????????? WTF???????

Edited by sriracha john, 2008-02-26 12:15:51.