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[breconion]

Kerryd, on 2008-06-30 19:21:06, said:

astral, on 2008-07-01 00:04:35, said:

I find this rather odd as Gulf Air tells me there are no seats available in July,
High Season is the reason they give................

Hahaha, guess I got the last one !

Actually, I booked my tickets a couple of weeks ago, and originally my agent had me as "wait-listed" on the flight from Bahrain to Bangkok. I told him that was no good, because if I didn't make that flight, I'd miss the connections in Bangkok. Not sure what he did, but the next day I was confirmed all the way.

Obviously, as airlines cut back on flights, the ones remaining are going to be jam packed full. Little chance for free upgrades in the future.

Gulf has just ADDED a morning direct flight from Bahrain to Bangkok and on my evening flight last week cattle was full, 70% business, 25% First. Morning flight Full all classes according to the chief steu.

[dougieboy]

LaoPo, on 2008-06-30 16:37:17, said:

britmaveric, on 2008-06-30 17:32:51, said:

Dunno just bought a ticket, same price its been for years. Perhaps it might dip for some, but those who can afford it will carry on, and those that won't will stay at home. Pretty simple.

I agree..it's simple; the majority can't afford to pay the prices anymore, some will. You were lucky to pay the same price as before but it won't last any longer, soon.

LaoPo

I pay only 360 GBP for two visits last year and year before, now I'm married and have to pay for two, I cannot find flights for less than 460 GBP, so I for one would welcome a drop in long haul fares

[Sharpie100]

Well I ahve been to Thailand 4 times this year and to be honest if you look around a flight with Eva and Thai and Qatar has risen from an average £630 for a London to Thailand flight to what is now £730. This is a direct flight. The problem is that America is struggling economny wise and so is the UK. The people now with the money are Russia and Arabia, these alone will support the tourist economy in thailand for the time being. Whether this is good for Thailand and the people of Thailand, i do not wish to expand on, you guys can do that if you want. Lets face it, the UK is expensive now for living and holidays to spain are due to the Euro being highly competitive against the pound and dollar. The Ameracans cant afford to go anywhere, they are really struggling and until they get back on thier feet, hopefully soon, the world economy is not going to be easy. Money is tight, the airlines adjust and then demand in a year or two will kick in, then we will be getting cheap flights again. Thailand I think are going to have a tuff time ahead, but we will see the growing amount of the Russians entering the Land of Smiles, just hope they keep the Thai people smiling. I dont think the politics in Thailand is enough yet to stop us Thailnd lovers from going.
My frined lives in thailand and owns a hotel in Pattaya, he says, " its getting tough, he had one person staying for two weeks in his 16 bed hotel and he dropped the price from 800 baht to 400...its not good. Already the hotels are dropping and the bars and the girls that work are now only getting 800 baht a night instead of the 1500-2000 last year. The bubble has burst and the water is being turned off...Keep smiling ladies

[KBTexas]

I booked my flight for October a month ago, and chose a different airlines.  AA wanted $2700 for the 1-stop flight, Korean offers a 1-stop for $300 less than I paid AA last year.  Hopefully they will still be flying in October. The total cost for the Korean flight was $1466.  I paid American $1780 last year.

Edited by KBTexas, 2008-07-01 05:03:12.

[LaoPo]

Sharpie100, on 2008-06-30 23:27:15, said:

Well I ahve been to Thailand 4 times this year and to be honest if you look around a flight with Eva and Thai and Qatar has risen from an average £630 for a London to Thailand flight to what is now £730. This is a direct flight. The problem is that America is struggling economny wise and so is the UK.

The people now with the money are Russia and Arabia, these alone will support the tourist economy in thailand for the time being. Whether this is good for Thailand and the people of Thailand, i do not wish to expand on, you guys can do that if you want. Lets face it, the UK is expensive now for living and holidays to spain are due to the Euro being highly competitive against the pound and dollar. The Ameracans cant afford to go anywhere, they are really struggling and until they get back on thier feet, hopefully soon, the world economy is not going to be easy. Money is tight, the airlines adjust and then demand in a year or two will kick in, then we will be getting cheap flights again. Thailand I think are going to have a tuff time ahead, but we will see the growing amount of the Russians entering the Land of Smiles, just hope they keep the Thai people smiling. I dont think the politics in Thailand is enough yet to stop us Thailnd lovers from going.

My frined lives in thailand and owns a hotel in Pattaya, he says, " its getting tough, he had one person staying for two weeks in his 16 bed hotel and he dropped the price from 800 baht to 400...its not good. Already the hotels are dropping and the bars and the girls that work are now only getting 800 baht a night instead of the 1500-2000 last year. The bubble has burst and the water is being turned off...Keep smiling ladies

A lot of people just don't want to see what's coming and call it gloom and doom views. It's not, it's reality. If you go 4 times/year to LOS and you have to pay 100 pounds/trip more, that's 400 GBP. I could go on.

About Russia and Arabia; you're not correct here. Tourism from these countries is still very low in comparison to the total incoming tourism. Unfortunately I can't get into TAT's website today because you can find all the %'s there over 2007.

The story about your friends' small hotel in Pattaya says it all...

The ones who are saying: "fine, let tourism slow down" don't realize yet what it will mean.
Nobody notices the declining tourism yet but the effects will be devastating.

LaoPo

[njpski]

It is all about priorities - if you want to go to Thailand, don't waste money on $4.00 cups of coffee, stop smoking, and suddenly you have a $100 extra at the end of the week!

Scrimp and save in the west to go to LOS and live the good life!!!

[mickj88]

In january we paid a total of £1020 for the 2 of us from Manchester > We tried to get the same flights (Emirates) and they want £890 each and as there are 5 going this time we have decided to go with Gulf from LHR ( sorry Atlas looks like we got the last 5 ). Having shopped around and played off a few ticket lines against each other I managed to get the flights for £640 each(4 x adults) and £540 for my son( 11 year old) with flights from Leeds to LHR and then return  internal flights to Udon and then return flights to Phuket it worked out in total £870 each for the 4 adults and £765 for my son.
Last october we flew Manchester to Hongkong then Hongkong to BKK and back to Man and it cost a total of £1120 although I used 2 different agents ( 1for the Hongkong to BKK was only £80 each with ebookers).
For me this will be the last time I travel during the schoool Holidays as its getting silly, from next year we will travel to LOS 8 or 9 days before songkran for a 3 week period and then have our 2nd visit in October/November if we can afford a double trip.

[BusyBee123]

well at least the exchange rate is looking much better for us ukers should more than offset the increase in airfare

[LaoPo]

mickj88, on 2008-07-01 00:16:28, said:

In january we paid a total of £1020 for the 2 of us from Manchester >

We tried to get the same flights (Emirates) and they want £890 each and as there are 5 going this time we have decided to go with Gulf from LHR ( sorry Atlas looks like we got the last 5 ). Having shopped around and played off a few ticket lines against each other

I managed to get the flights for £640 each(4 x adults) and £540 for my son( 11 year old) with flights from Leeds to LHR and then return internal flights to Udon and then return flights to Phuket it worked out in total £870 each for the 4 adults and £765 for my son.
Last october we flew Manchester to Hongkong then Hongkong to BKK and back to Man and it cost a total of £1120 although I used 2 different agents ( 1for the Hongkong to BKK was only £80 each with ebookers).

For me this will be the last time I travel during the schoool Holidays as its getting silly, from next year we will travel to LOS 8 or 9 days before songkran for a 3 week period and then have our 2nd visit in October/November if we can afford a double trip.

If I'm correct and following your prices you paid GBP 510/each in January and now GBP 640/each, is that correct ?

If so, you paid 25.5% extra since January per adult ticket

No wonder major airlines are cutting in their long-haul flights; passengers stay away, simple as that.

Fewer planes = fewer seats = harder to get tickets/seats at higher prices.

LaoPo

[LaoPo]

In the meantime in the US....

Landmark Survey Reveals Deep Frustration Among Air Travelers – 41 Million Trips Avoided, $26.5 Billion Blow to Economy

A groundbreaking survey recently commissioned by TIA found that frustration with the air travel system is growing and that this frustration is highest among those who fly the most.  In fact, 28% of air travelers avoided at least one trip over the past year due to the problems in the air travel process, costing the economy over $26.5 billion through 41 million trips that were not taken.

http://www.tia.org/r...vey_Summary.pdf

LaoPo

[nikster]

You don't need to be all doomy and gloomy, it's pretty simple: Economy in the toilet (Americans aren't going anywhere now), oil + ticket prices sky-high = middle class tourists will stay home. Airlines are hit particularly hard so they'll shirink for a while until things go back up. Also, airlines go bust all the time even during boom times.

First company to introduce an all-electric plane will own the market

[tartempion]

britmaveric, on 2008-06-30 22:41:06, said:

Ahh the half empty brigade is in full force, and no worries I can afford whatever price is set.

When you will be the only passenger booked on a flight, guess once, your flight will be cancelled

[LaoPo]

Airlines try to hedge against soaring fuel costs Hedging, a sometimes profitable way to do better than your competitor but very risky as well....very !

Monday June 30, 12:34 pm ET
By David Koenig, AP Business Writer
Airlines look to complex hedging deals as oil climbs past $140 a barrel

DALLAS (AP) -- The computer screen on Scott Topping's desk at Southwest Airlines flickered with row after row of dates and numbers, but they had nothing to do with arrivals and departures.

They tracked the price of oil futures for the next several months, and they told a grim tale: No letup in sight from record prices for jet fuel.

"We're on a one-way street right now," Topping said as he hunched over the screen, shaking his head.

It's Topping's job to oversee Southwest's battle to control surging fuel costs. It is the most successful program of its kind in the airline industry.

In the first quarter of this year, Southwest paid $1.98 per gallon for fuel. American Airlines paid $2.73, and United paid $2.83 per gallon in the same period.

Since 1999, hedging has saved Southwest $3.5 billion. It has sometimes meant the difference between profit and loss. In the first quarter, hedging gains of $291 million dwarfed Southwest's $34 million profit.

Hedging is a financial strategy that lets airlines or other investors protect themselves against rising prices for commodities such as oil by locking in a price for fuel. It has been described as everything from gambling to buying insurance.

Airlines can hedge in several ways, making financial transactions with banks, energy companies or other trading partners.

They can buy contracts for crude oil or unleaded gasoline, and reap a gain if prices rise, offsetting the higher cost of jet fuel.

They can buy a "call option" that gives them the right to buy fuel at a certain price.

They can also use collar hedges, a combination of rights to buy and sell at set prices ("call" and "put" options). Collars provide protection from a decline in prices but less upside if prices rise.

Airlines also use swaps, contracts that require them to buy oil or fuel on a certain date at a set price. These are risky -- one party in a swap wins, the other loses.

Most airlines use a combination of strategies to reduce risk.

The transactions carry a price tag. Southwest spent $52 million on hedging premiums last year and $14 million in the first three months of this year.

As a result mostly of trades made years ago, Southwest has hedged 70 percent of this year's fuel needs at $51 per barrel instead of the current price of more than $140 per barrel.

But hedging premiums rise and fall with the price of the underlying commodity, making new trades very expensive. Southwest has not done much trading in the last several months.

Airline executives say hedging is not a bet on the direction of oil prices.

"We view our program as insurance," said Paul Jacobson, the treasurer of Delta Air Lines Inc. "Our goal is to minimize the volatility of fuel expenses. To do that, you've got to be in the market actively without an opinion as to what energy prices will do."

But hedging carries risks. Airlines can lose money if oil prices turn down and their options expire.

In 2006, Delta won approval from a bankruptcy court and creditors to get into hedging. But the airline got squeezed when oil prices dropped in midyear, and it reported a loss of $108 million from the trading.

Continental Airlines Inc. reported a loss of $18 million from hedging in the first quarter of 2007. But like Delta, Continental is still hedging.

At one time in the 1990s, most major U.S. airlines hedged some of their fuel costs -- even hiring experts from the oil industry to show them the ropes -- said Peter Fusaro, chairman of Global Change Associates, an adviser to hedge funds.

That changed after the recession and terror attacks of 2001, which plunged airlines into huge losses. Banks and energy companies that make hedging trades with airlines grew nervous.

"The problem was that most carriers had terrible creditworthiness and couldn't hedge," Fusaro said. "Counter-parties feared the carriers would renege on their trades."

Southwest was the only large U.S. carrier to remain profitable through the downturn. It benefited from higher labor productivity and lower ticket-sales costs. That, and a healthy balance sheet, allowed it to keep hedging when oil was a bargain, compared to today's prices.

Now, Southwest is the only big carrier that has most of its fuel expenses hedged at below-market prices. And analysts say it will be the only one to earn a profit this year.

While other carriers plan to slash flights later this year -- some contracting by more than 10 percent -- Southwest expects to grow, although more slowly than it would like.

And Southwest has avoided the kind of fees that annoy passengers. It doesn't charge for checking luggage or buying a ticket over the phone, doesn't add a fuel surcharge to the fare, and still gives out free sodas and snacks.

But how long will the joy ride last?

The bulk of Southwest's hedges expire gradually by 2012. Replacing them would be very expensive and risky. One plan under study is to go back to hedging only against catastrophically higher oil prices -- say, $200 per barrel.

Unless oil prices stabilize or even decline, the airline could face a crisis covering higher fuel costs in just a few years.

"It's starting to have an impact on their operating plan," said Betsy Snyder, an analyst for the debt-rating service Standard & Poor's. "They're cutting back growth plans for the first time ever and exiting some unprofitable routes."

Chairman and Chief Executive Gary Kelly said the fuel hedges have bought his airline time to adjust to higher energy costs. Now he wants to find $1.5 billion in new revenue to make up for shrinking fuel hedges.

Among possible sources of the money are higher fares, international service, in-flight entertainment for a charge, and selling hotel rooms on its Web site.

Snyder thinks Southwest can pull it off by following its current strategy of expansion in places like Denver, Philadelphia and Baltimore, where rivals are cutting flights.

"This is a company," Snyder said, "that has always taken advantage of others' misfortune."

---YAHOO!/FINANCE

LaoPo

[nikster]

PS: It has nothing to do with Thai competence/incompetence, politics, destroying Samui (or any other place), greed, whatever. It really has nothing to do with Thailand at all.

[lomatopo]

It is actually true that base fares have not risen very much over the past 18 months. What is driving up the total price of the fare is the additional YQ Fuel Surcharge.

From LHR to BKK ~ 290 GBP. LAX to BKK ~ 375 USD.

So a 900 USD base fare might have yielded a 1,050 all in price 18 months ago, now it is closer to 1,400.

Some airlines are still not charging a YQ Fuel Surcharge, e.g. CI, but expect that to change momentarily. BR only just added them.

Airlines are using YQ fuel surcharges, instead of raising base fares, for one reason: all discounts are applied against base fares in corporate contracts and discounts are not applied to YQ fuel surcharges. Many airlines make whatever profit they can from business and first class cabins, and last minute full-fare ecomony purchases (Y/. Airlines offer corporate contract discounts of up to 35%. If they rasied the base fares they'd actually get less top-line revenue and would reduce RASM (revenue per available seat mile). Airlines position the YQ fuel surcharges as "temporary". Who can blame them, short of a monopoly route, government assistance, profits from hedging fuel, they are in a dangerously thin margin business.

Thailand needs to backfill western tourism with that from Russia, China, SE Asia, Middle East.

[tropo]

njpski, on 2008-07-01 05:12:43, said:

It is all about priorities - if you want to go to Thailand, don't waste money on $4.00 cups of coffee, stop smoking, and suddenly you have a $100 extra at the end of the week!

Scrimp and save in the west to go to LOS and live the good life!!!

It doesn't help much for non-smokers and non-$4 coffee drinkers.

Believe it or not, you can buy $4.00 cups of coffee in Thailand no trouble at all. A decent coffee at McDonalds can even set you back $3.00.

[LaoPo]

Airlines plan to cut flights

Major Chinese airlines are moving fast to tackle the mounting pressure from escalating fuel prices and shrinking market demand. China Southern Airlines and China Eastern Airlines said they plan to cut long-haul international flights to reduce costs.

China raises fuel surcharges on domestic routes by up to 50%

Southern Airlines to suspend flights

China Southern Airlines has announced it will suspend eight international flights from Guangzhou to Southeast Asia countries this month, the Nanfang Daily reported yesterday.

The flights involve Ho Chi Minh City and Hanoi, Vietnam; Angkor, Cambodia; and Phuket, Thailand.

Just a few 'airline' related news messages past month.

---ChinaDaily

LaoPo

[jfchandler]

My EVA flight from BKK to Los Angeles in the past two weeks was basically full for the Taipei to L.A. segment.... as it usually is....  Only difference, the price this year was several hundred dollars higher than the same ticket...one year ago...

[chlear909]

well after years of  doing everything possible to make people leave,Its working,such smarts
and they still wont get it for awhile it looks.ill still go in december a few weeks to avoid visa snaggle.
got all my investments out tho etc..as a so called 'poor english teacher(8 years) 'there ,i got smart, then rich ,then gone,,
the poor thais will suffer the most from it sadly,and they are such fine people my heart crys for them.

[aussimike]

britmaveric, on 2008-06-30 21:56:49, said:

Prime destination, doubt it will be as dire as the article makes out.

wrong -- no longer considered a prime destination, considering the ongoing political problems, and alternative rising destinations in particular Vietnam, which is challenging Thailand as the place to go. Also with the opening up of China and the flow on from the Olympics - the land of smiles needs to wake up - create better infrastructure, offer better discounts of accommodation instead of fleecing tourists, and create a safer destination, no one wants to come here with the possibility of further military getting involved in politics again..   potential tours also watch the news !!!!!!!

[Tinkelbell]

hardy1943, on 2008-07-01 02:30:54, said:

pepi2005, on 2008-07-01 00:18:35, said:

You gals & boyz don't seem to know Thailand.

Thai-style 'adaptation' to the new situation will of course mean that prices
and rip-offs will increase to compensate for the loss of income.

  

Yup, you are right. Thai logic when things are slow charge double

Your treads bought back a memory of my Thai friend who  once owned a restaurant in Miami many years ago.     From the started he opened  for lunch and dinner daily.    Later  the lunch business was not that busy,    seemed he wasn't making any profit.    

So what he did,  he stoped serving lunch,    just opened for dinner only.    
When I saw the prices on the menu inflated more than 50%-80 % more on  almost every dish ( I was a regular,  naturally I was familiar with the prices.)    I reminded him may be this was not a good policy, it might kill his business.    what he said surprised me........ " I rather to cook one dish sold for $10  ( dinner price)  than 2 dished at $5  ( lunch price) each.  Even I have  less half of customers,  I still make twice the money...." .

Now you can see,   this is a typical way for most Thais to do -  when business slows,  they will raise the price to off-set the lost.

[SebD]

Tinkelbell, on 2008-07-01 00:57:19, said:

hardy1943, on 2008-07-01 02:30:54, said:

pepi2005, on 2008-07-01 00:18:35, said:

You gals & boyz don't seem to know Thailand.

Thai-style 'adaptation' to the new situation will of course mean that prices
and rip-offs will increase to compensate for the loss of income.

  

Yup, you are right. Thai logic when things are slow charge double

Your treads bought back a memory of my Thai friend who  once owned a restaurant in Miami many years ago.     From the started he opened  for lunch and dinner daily.    Later  the lunch business was not that busy,    seemed he wasn't making any profit.    

So what he did,  he stoped serving lunch,    just opened for dinner only.    
When I saw the prices on the menu inflated more than 50%-80 % more on  almost every dish ( I was a regular,  naturally I was familiar with the prices.)    I reminded him may be this was not a good policy, it might kill his business.    what he said surprised me........ " I rather to cook one dish sold for $10  ( dinner price)  than 2 dished at $5  ( lunch price) each.  Even I have  less half of customers,  I still make twice the money...." .

Now you can see,   this is a typical way for most Thais to do -  when business slows,  they will raise the price to off-set the lost.

  

So how much was that, that he makes from zero customers at $10 rather than 2 customers at $5 per head, again?

[Heng]

SIA was still pretty packed as of 2 weeks ago, on all legs: BKK-SIN-LAX-SIN-BKK in biz class.  Economy looked to be packed solid as well.   Important to remember that airlines cutting back isn't always just because of the financial health of consumers... but of the airlines themselves.  And like regular folks, some airlines are simply in better financial health than others.          

[sangfroid]

EmptyMind, on 2008-07-01 01:31:52, said:

Bukseeda, on 2008-07-01 01:18:45, said:

EmptyMind, on 2008-06-30 18:30:27, said:

pepi2005, on 2008-07-01 00:18:35, said:

I remember a time when prices went UP during low season in the bars!

Well look at Thai Elite for a prime example, they want to attract more members by increasing the fee from 1M to 1.5M

Typical logic around here.

(Please no Thai Elite flames, I only used it as a prime example of attracting more by making it more expensive.)

In a lot of countries if something costs more its because its either better made or lasts longer. In Thailand if something is more expensive it's the same old thing at an inflated price because they didn't sell enough the first time around.

The only place you will find logic in Thailand is in a dictionary (A well known Thai told me that)

[flightcrew1]

Hmmm.  I generally work the 2nd half of international flights into Thailand (HKG - BKK or NRT - BKK) as I'm based here and have not noticed any decrease in passenger loads yet.  Though in the last couple of years we are using smaller aircraft from those two cities into BKK 747 v. 777 so of course this means the passenger loads are decreased by 25 pct.