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[cmsally]

Anyone have any thoughts about exchanging cash into AUS $ from eg. UK,Euro,US
Apart from the higher interest rates what are your views on how the rates will go in the next year or two.
Anyone see interest rates going up or down and how will the picture will be affected by commodities (especially commodities found in Australia of course).
Just thought I would open a topic for people who are thinking about buying AUS$ to air their views.
Personally I think it could be quite a good move from UK pounds at the moment for the next year or so.

[bendix]

Personally, I don't think it's a good move.  My sense (corroborated by a fascinating article in this week's Economist) is that Aussie dollar is way overvalued, notwithstanding the interest rates.

There is no tangible reason why the Aussie is so strong right now.   Most are predicting a decline in value over the next year or so.

Of course, I could be totally wrong.

[watchoutfarang]

Personally ,

i would take a short term punt on the $ Aussie I have made $6k in the last 3 months. But foreign exchange is the biggest gamble

[bendix]

it would have been impossible to lose money on the aussie over the last few months; that's just why I think now is the time NOT to go there.  Im trying to find the Economist article I mentioned.  From memory it openly named the Iceland Kroner and Australian Dollar as both being inexplicably overvalued and ripe for a correction based on it's fundamentals.

[AFKAFSinLOS]

I don't particularly trade currencies, and go more for risk protection and diversification than trying to call trends. Tho' I do move around the proportions I have from time to time.

I maintain 1/3 of my assets in the currency of where I came from (in case I decide to go back ); 1/3 in Thailand where I live (in case I decide to stay ), and the rest in a mixture of currencies. So I put myself in a situation I don't worry so much, and invest/trade in other assets

My thoughts on currencies for what it's worth:

GBP - overvalued
EUR - overvalued
USD - have been starting to consider again, particularly compared to GBP and EUR. I haven't favoured USD for years, but this could be it's year to come back a bit vs EUR/GBP
JPY - no personal interest

Longer term I prefer Asian currencies, given the East will become more important. Particularly SGD, CNY. As we're in Thailand THB is in for a bit of a bumpy ride, but won't lose that much. I'd be surprised to see it over USD/THB 35, but stranger things have happened.

I've added all the above as context to my thought, as your own reasons and risk profile are as important as anything. Whereas USD/GBP/EUR are all first tier main traded currencies, and probably worth considering regardless of where you are from or where you live, AUD is a second tier currency.

AUD is worth having some exposure too, (not just for Ozzies ) as an alternative to the main 4 currencies as you suggest. It pays a nice interest rate at the moment, and the Oz economy is faring better than many. I sort of feel much of the best might be behind it, but it still doesn't look bad. 7-8% cash rates, which is quite reasonable for its strength.

Don't chase it for the interest rate alone. eg I swapped some USD for AUD and NZD at similar times last year for reasons you are now considering. NZD at 8-9% was paying higher interest than AUD. That said I expected AUD to fair better overall. It has with some capital appreciation vs USD + nice interest, whereas NZD has struggled to hold value but paid nice interest.

All in all. Worth a look. Particularly if you want to diversify away from GBP/EUR/USD. The yield above USD cash rates gives a reasonable cushion vs any downside depreciation risk...

[LaoPo]

I don't understand why you Gents even discuss the Aus $.
It's a small currency with a rather small population of 20 Million. A good sized Chinese city  

Forget it.
Apart from that I foresee a dramatic fall in commodities and Australia is rich in commodities, so..............

LaoPo

[london]

LaoPo, on 2008-07-09 01:24:54, said:

I don't understand why you Gents even discuss the Aus $.
It's a small currency with a rather small population of 20 Million. A good sized Chinese city  

Forget it.
Apart from that I foresee a dramatic fall in commodities and Australia is rich in commodities, so..............

LaoPo

Interesting thoughts.

Therefore investing or holdings in: 1) Swiss Franc with a population of around 8 million.....why bother ?

                                                  2) Singapore dollar with a population of around 5 million...same ??

Australian population: around 24 million.

Yes, it has the population of a good sized Chinese city (strange analogy) and the infrastructure, economy, development, housing, immigration growth, stability, legal system, demographic of the best of the US or Europe.

Oh, and you foresee a dramatic fall in commodities .......really?

Why?  I'd be interested in your reasons.

My view re the $AU is different:

1) there is likely to be some consolidation in the $AU/$US to around the .92cents range ....then depending on what happens to the US economy, this is likely to either move to parity (where it has been in the past) or if the US economy rebounds strongly, it will drift to around the high .80s.

2) against their main trading partners, the $AU will remain high....there is no reason why it should drift lower.

3) against the Euro and UK pound, it has been strengthening......based on 1) commodities; 2) interest rates;  3) overseas investment.

4) it is domicile to the worlds largest mining company (BHP), the banking system is basically untouched by the sub-prime debacle....and you could easily name at least 4 companies
    whose reach from their home soil are global....and household names.

5) immigration is on a major growth phase.  It has been for around the last 3 years.  There is absolutely NO reason to see this demand easing up in the foreseeable future.

6) housing is expensive....BUT, unlike other similar nations there is little prospect of a major correction....again, because of supply and demand.  There just isn't  enough housing
   in Australia for the demand.

So, thats my opinion.....and I'm investing based on what I have ACTUALLY seen and EXPERIENCED rather than what is reported in a magazine.

Oh, re taking magazine articles on face value...pick any of them, certainly the Economist is no exception...go back 12 months and read what they were predicting then.  I can assure you, it will be interesting reading!

[cmsally]

I am inclined to side with london.
For Asians it is an attractive place to park some cash and from what some friends have told me they have moved cash there to get residency/nationality for children of their's who study there. For a lot of wealthy Asians it is a safe haven of sorts thus quite nicely tied into the Asian economy but with far more attractive interest rates.
I can't see commodities doing a dive either.
My opinion is it will rise against the pound but I'm not so sure what the Euro is up to.
The Euro might be in for interesting times with Mr Sarkozy at the helm.

[samran]

The AUD will get stronger against the baht as the commodity boom goes on and Thai inflation outpaces Australian inflation which will be kept low by a relatively robust and flexible economy. Major contracts coal and iron ore are real and they have just gone up even more. My contacts in the industry who negotiate these things tell me that customers are demanding more, and are paying more over the next 2 years.

I have a feeling it will start leveling out against the USD.

[watchoutfarang]

so bottom line? The Aus $ wil get stronger invest now or forever hold your breath amateur economists.

However, live by the saying - 'if you put 1000 economists in a room none of them will agree'

[Naam]

LaoPo, on 2008-07-09 00:24:54, said:

I don't understand why you Gents even discuss the Aus $.
It's a small currency with a rather small population of 20 Million. A good sized Chinese city  
Forget it.
Apart from that I foresee a dramatic fall in commodities and Australia is rich in commodities, so..............
LaoPo

i like the 7.275% overnight rate and that i can get out around the clock within a few minutes without using forwards. also i agree that the AUD is a commodity and carry and presently mainly interest rate driven currency but i don't expect a dramatic fall of commodities nor do i expect a considerable fall in rates. anyway, when currencies are concerned my finger is always on the trigger ready to shoot.

[Gary A]

People who can accurately predict currency trends are rich and rich people don't give away their secrets. Then there are the experts who guess. They are normally poor people who make a living giving you advice and taking a commission whether they were right or wrong. I'm NOT rich nor do I give advice.

[samran]

Gary A, on 2008-07-09 10:57:13, said:

People who can accurately predict currency trends are rich and rich people don't give away their secrets. Then there are the experts who guess. They are normally poor people who make a living giving you advice and taking a commission whether they were right or wrong. I'm NOT rich nor do I give advice.

hey, and some of us are just nice people who like shooting the breeze on these things. No harm.

in any case, I've just singned a contract where I'm getting 2/3 of my salary in USD, and 1/3 in THB. My expenses are in AUD and I work in commodities. My choice of how I wanted it to be structured, so I guess some of us are putting our money where our mouths are.....

[LaoPo]

london, on 2008-07-09 09:19:02, said:

LaoPo, on 2008-07-09 01:24:54, said:

I don't understand why you Gents even discuss the Aus $.
It's a small currency with a rather small population of 20 Million. A good sized Chinese city  

Forget it.
Apart from that I foresee a dramatic fall in commodities and Australia is rich in commodities, so..............

LaoPo

Interesting thoughts.

Therefore investing or holdings in: 1) Swiss Franc with a population of around 8 million.....why bother ?

                                                  2) Singapore dollar with a population of around 5 million...same ??

Australian population: around 24 million.

Yes, it has the population of a good sized Chinese city (strange analogy) and the infrastructure, economy, development, housing, immigration growth, stability, legal system, demographic of the best of the US or Europe.

Oh, and you foresee a dramatic fall in commodities .......really?

Why?  I'd be interested in your reasons.

My view re the $AU is different:

1) there is likely to be some consolidation in the $AU/$US to around the .92cents range ....then depending on what happens to the US economy, this is likely to either move to parity (where it has been in the past) or if the US economy rebounds strongly, it will drift to around the high .80s.

2) against their main trading partners, the $AU will remain high....there is no reason why it should drift lower.

3) against the Euro and UK pound, it has been strengthening......based on 1) commodities; 2) interest rates;  3) overseas investment.

4) it is domicile to the worlds largest mining company (BHP), the banking system is basically untouched by the sub-prime debacle....and you could easily name at least 4 companies
    whose reach from their home soil are global....and household names.

5) immigration is on a major growth phase.  It has been for around the last 3 years.  There is absolutely NO reason to see this demand easing up in the foreseeable future.

6) housing is expensive....BUT, unlike other similar nations there is little prospect of a major correction....again, because of supply and demand.  There just isn't  enough housing
   in Australia for the demand.

So, thats my opinion.....and I'm investing based on what I have ACTUALLY seen and EXPERIENCED rather than what is reported in a magazine.

Oh, re taking magazine articles on face value...pick any of them, certainly the Economist is no exception...go back 12 months and read what they were predicting then.  I can assure you, it will be interesting reading!

Ouch...I didn't realize Ozzies had such long toes...but I learned again today. Big mouths, long toes but small hearts I suppose  

As for Switzerland and S'pore currencies: the Swiss Franc can't be compared with the AUD, can it ? Same for S'pore.
Switzerland has a higher GDP, and GDP/capita as well, in comparison with Australia (Nr. of population). The same for Singapore. But: again, those countries can't be compared; they're totally different.

And: Australia doesn't have 24 million people; 20.6 comes first (July 2008 est.). Don't smuggle a few million   Check CIA if you don't believe me.

But, I stick with my personal view that the AUD is of no major importance in the financial world. It's a minority currency never mind the high interest rate Naam's getting for overnight money. But he certainly also knows that high interest rates on a certain currency is risky as well. Not everybody is such a currency specialist....most are not.

And, as for the drop in commodities: time will tell; many of you could be wrong. And so could I.

LaoPo

[lannarebirth]

For me there is nothing compelling about owning $AU.  It's just one of many currencies that have been the other side of the $USD trade. It's your feelings about the $USD you need to sort out first IMO.

[LaoPo]

london, on 2008-07-09 09:19:02, said:

Oh, and you foresee a dramatic fall in commodities .......really?

Why?  I'd be interested in your reasons.

Commodities slump for 2nd day on big crude drop
By STEVENSON JACOBS – 14 hours ago

NEW YORK (AP) — Commodities fell sharply for a second day Tuesday after another big drop in crude prices suggested that a global economic slowdown is curbing the world's thirst for for energy and raw materials.

Gold, silver, copper, corn and most other agriculture futures sank as crude tumbled nearly $6 a barrel, bringing oil prices down almost $10 this week. A stronger dollar also rendered commodities more expensive to overseas buyers, curbing some demand.

After a year of explosive growth in the commodities sector, analysts say signs are emerging that the boom may be slowing down: The battered dollar is showing signs of life, soaring costs for energy and raw materials are slowing growth in Asia and the Middle East and U.S. legislators are weighing whether to restrict investor inflows into the commodities sector.

"The macroeconomic backdrop suggests that the bloom may be off the rose in commodities," said Richard Feltes, senior vice president and director of commodity research for MF Global in Chicago.

continues here:

http://ap.google.com...nPIP8gD91PT5901


Have commodities peaked?
Some say oil could go back to $100, with other commodities following suit


here:

http://www.marketwat.....16623F1C69EE}

I found these articles AFTER I wrote my comment, previously.
But, it's not a surprise to me if one reads and study the markets of the past few months and months to come.

Commodity prices do not always react so fast as shares and bonds. Consuming facts, especially in the Far East (more than 60% of the world's population) are unreliable and we also don't know if Chinese and Indian facts are completely factual or not. Together 2.3 - 2.4 Billion people...

As said, I foresee a downfall in commodities (I agree..maybe not so dramatic as I mentioned earlier; Mea Culpa) but a downfall nevertheless and it could hurt more than we anticipate now !

LaoPo

[lannarebirth]

LaoPo, on 2008-07-09 19:46:11, said:

london, on 2008-07-09 09:19:02, said:

Oh, and you foresee a dramatic fall in commodities .......really?

Why? I'd be interested in your reasons.

Commodities slump for 2nd day on big crude drop
By STEVENSON JACOBS – 14 hours ago

NEW YORK (AP) — Commodities fell sharply for a second day Tuesday after another big drop in crude prices suggested that a global economic slowdown is curbing the world's thirst for for energy and raw materials.

Gold, silver, copper, corn and most other agriculture futures sank as crude tumbled nearly $6 a barrel, bringing oil prices down almost $10 this week. A stronger dollar also rendered commodities more expensive to overseas buyers, curbing some demand.

After a year of explosive growth in the commodities sector, analysts say signs are emerging that the boom may be slowing down: The battered dollar is showing signs of life, soaring costs for energy and raw materials are slowing growth in Asia and the Middle East and U.S. legislators are weighing whether to restrict investor inflows into the commodities sector.

"The macroeconomic backdrop suggests that the bloom may be off the rose in commodities," said Richard Feltes, senior vice president and director of commodity research for MF Global in Chicago.

continues here:

http://ap.google.com...nPIP8gD91PT5901


Have commodities peaked?
Some say oil could go back to $100, with other commodities following suit


here:

http://www.marketwat.....16623F1C69EE}

I found these articles AFTER I wrote my comment, previously.
But, it's not a surprise to me if one reads and study the markets of the past few months and months to come.

Commodity prices do not always react so fast as shares and bonds. Consuming facts, especially in the Far East (more than 60% of the world's population) are unreliable and we also don't know if Chinese and Indian facts are completely factual or not. Together 2.3 - 2.4 Billion people...

As said, I foresee a downfall in commodities (I agree..maybe not so dramatic as I mentioned earlier; Mea Culpa) but a downfall nevertheless and it could hurt more than we anticipate now !

LaoPo

It's the "wave of nature" don't you know.
http://www.mahendrap...s...=391&Page=1

[Naam]

samran, on 2008-07-09 18:04:58, said:

Gary A, on 2008-07-09 10:57:13, said:

People who can accurately predict currency trends are rich and rich people don't give away their secrets. Then there are the experts who guess. They are normally poor people who make a living giving you advice and taking a commission whether they were right or wrong. I'm NOT rich nor do I give advice.

hey, and some of us are just nice people who like shooting the breeze on these things. No harm.

in any case, I've just singned a contract where I'm getting 2/3 of my salary in USD, and 1/3 in THB. My expenses are in AUD and I work in commodities. My choice of how I wanted it to be structured, so I guess some of us are putting our money where our mouths are.....

i think most views on currencies depend on the individual perspective and the chosen reference currency. what i have realized in TV is that Brits have problems not to think in GBP, Kiwis praise the high yielding Kiwi-Dollar, Europeans think sky is the limit for the €UR and inspite what happened during the last several years Americans focus on USD and pray for a dollar recovering. my view is that one should get rid of all emotions, especially stubborn wishful thinking and adjust to the daily developments which might mean throwing all good investment ideas of the morning overboard in the afternoon. of course i am talking of currencies only and i would like to point out that i'm not a chartist nor do i believe in charts. LBR will hopefully forgive my heretic beliefs  

[Naam]

lannarebirth, on 2008-07-09 18:36:28, said:

For me there is nothing compelling about owning $AU.  It's just one of many currencies that have been the other side of the $USD trade. It's your feelings about the $USD you need to sort out first IMO.

being a cash lover, for me the difference in overnight rates (USD 1.83% / AUD 7.275%) is extremely compelling  

[LaoPo]

lannarebirth, on 2008-07-09 13:52:46, said:

It's the "wave of nature" don't you know.
http://www.mahendrap...s...=391&Page=1

I have to admit I never heard of this chap; will have a read tomorrow. He reminds me of the Bhagwan..

Are you telling me you follow his advises ?  

LaoPo

[LaoPo]

Naam, on 2008-07-09 14:07:57, said:

lannarebirth, on 2008-07-09 18:36:28, said:

For me there is nothing compelling about owning $AU.  It's just one of many currencies that have been the other side of the $USD trade. It's your feelings about the $USD you need to sort out first IMO.

being a cash lover, for me the difference in overnight rates (USD 1.83% / AUD 7.275%) is extremely compelling  

Minimum restrictions are ? As far as I read the rate is 7,24 % for 1 week ; is that correct ?
I'm not a currency (or Forex) trader myself so am not a specialist.

LaoPo

[lannarebirth]

LaoPo, on 2008-07-10 02:46:32, said:

lannarebirth, on 2008-07-09 13:52:46, said:

It's the "wave of nature" don't you know.
http://www.mahendrap...s...=391&Page=1

I have to admit I never heard of this chap; will have a read tomorrow. He reminds me of the Bhagwan..

Are you telling me you follow his advises ?

LaoPo

No, I certainly don't follow his advice, but I will say he's at least as good as most other newsletter/subscription writers.  I follow my own methods but certainly recognize that much of the movement in markets can be attributed to astrological, astronomical and meteorological phenomena.  Way more than most people could appreciate.  I know very succesful traders who trade almost solely on these types of inputs.  It's not my thing, but I don't castigate others who use these methods.

[LaoPo]

lannarebirth, on 2008-07-09 21:06:45, said:

LaoPo, on 2008-07-10 02:46:32, said:

lannarebirth, on 2008-07-09 13:52:46, said:

It's the "wave of nature" don't you know.
http://www.mahendrap...s...=391&Page=1

I have to admit I never heard of this chap; will have a read tomorrow. He reminds me of the Bhagwan..

Are you telling me you follow his advises ?

LaoPo

No, I certainly don't follow his advice, but I will say he's at least as good as most other newsletter/subscription writers.  I follow my own methods but certainly recognize that much of the movement in markets can be attributed to astrological, astronomical and meteorological phenomena.  Way more than most people could appreciate.  I know very succesful traders who trade almost solely on these types of inputs.  It's not my thing, but I don't castigate others who use these methods.

Most interesting.

LaoPo

[london]

Ouch...I didn't realize Ozzies had such long toes...but I learned again today. Big mouths, long toes but small hearts I suppose  

I can't speak for the others who commented, but I am not an Aussie.  But it appears that you have a chip on your shoulder re Aussies and certainly your derogatory remarks are of no relevance to the post.



As for Switzerland and S'pore currencies: the Swiss Franc can't be compared with the AUD, can it ? Same for S'pore.

well, YOU were the one that brought up the population issue.....so I was just expanding on that.....



Switzerland has a higher GDP, and GDP/capita as well, in comparison with Australia (Nr. of population). The same for Singapore. But: again, those countries can't be compared; they're totally different.

Again, interesting comment.

The figures are:

http://www.dfat.gov....bal_economy.pdf
Australia's  GDP in 2007 in value terms was around $1 trillion. with GDP growth since 2000 averaging above 3 per cent a year and growth in real gross domestic income averaging more than 4 per cent including the terms of trade gains  (or $908 billion according to CIA)

Switzerland's GDP: $255.5 billion (2006 est.) (purchasing power parity)
According to https://www.cia.gov/...k/print/sz.html

Singapoore's GDP: $141.2 billion (2006 est.) (purchasing power parity)
According to https://www.cia.gov/...k/print/sn.html

So working on YOUR Switzerland has a higher GDP, and GDP/capita as well, in comparison with Australia (Nr. of population), Population: 7,554,661 (July 2007 est.)
According to https://www.cia.gov/...k/print/sz.html  That would mean that it in fact has a substantially LOWER GDP than Australia ...either in real terms or in population terms.



And: Australia doesn't have 24 million people; 20.6 comes first (July 2008 est.). Don't smuggle a few million   Check CIA if you don't believe me.

No, sorry, it has 21,359, 297   (Australian Bureau of Statistics http://www.abs.gov.a...3?opendocument)



But, I stick with my personal view that the AUD is of no major importance in the financial world. It's a minority currency never mind the high interest rate Naam's getting for overnight money. But he certainly also knows that high interest rates on a certain currency is risky as well. Not everybody is such a currency specialist....most are not.

It really comes down to one factor: what you term "important", let alone of major importance ?

It is NOT the major trading currency in the world, nor in this region, however, it is BECOMING the PREFERRED currency for trading, certainly in commodities and also in Asia.

Check any bank in Asia...the $AU is always in the top 5 quoted FER...and that is NOT due to alphabetical ordering.



And, as for the drop in commodities: time will tell; many of you could be wrong. And so could I.

True.

[LaoPo]

london, on 2008-07-10 00:59:37, said:

But it appears that you have a chip on your shoulder re Aussies and certainly your derogatory remarks are of no relevance to the post.

I suggest you read a few of my posts to learn about me a little better before you make such comments. Personally, I have nothing against Ozzies; on the contrary
Humour is not your strongest point I assume.

I also suggest you read my posts better before making such detailed comments; it's a waste of time and energy.  

LaoPo