Posted 2008-07-31 06:49:30
 LaoPo, on 2008-07-31 02:01:42, said:
samran, on 2008-07-30 16:53:46, said: Naam, on 2008-07-30 13:26:11, said: LaoPo, on 2008-07-30 18:11:39, said: Note: the old rule that high percentages (7.25% on AUD $) are ALWAYS risky proved again to be true....
LaoPo
it depends on the perspective LaoPo, the reference currency and the currency in which one has the lion share of expenses.
7.25% p.a. for AUD plus another 6.50% appreciation vs. Thai Baht during the last three months results in an annualized yield i can normally only dream of 
and for me, it is like a pay rise every day!!!
and I was talking a drop of 3.4% since July 16th of the AUD$ (taking an interest of 7.25% into consideration.....)
LaoPo
what drop? 
Posted 2008-07-31 06:58:39
fact (well, i claim it's a fact): 99% of TV-members living in Thailand couldn't care less how AUD is doing vs. USD although the media is always focussing on it. hardly any of them have any expenses in USD but definitely in THB and perhaps in AUD 
Posted 2008-07-31 07:01:09
lannarebirth, on 2008-07-30 19:59:43, said:
how many of those do exist LRB? 1/12th of a dozen?
Posted 2008-07-31 13:28:13
Naam, on 2008-07-31 08:01:09, said: lannarebirth, on 2008-07-30 19:59:43, said:
how many of those do exist LRB? 1/12th of a dozen?
I'm in that group of 11. Problem is, I sometimes think too much, and that's not always beneficial.
Posted 2008-07-31 15:49:28
Naam, on 2008-07-31 01:49:30, said: what drop?
From a Bloomberg article in here:
http://www.thaivisa....74#entry2116374
LaoPo
Posted 2008-07-31 15:54:55
LaoPo, on 2008-07-31 15:49:28, said: Naam, on 2008-07-31 01:49:30, said: what drop?
From a Bloomberg article in here:
http://www.thaivisa....74#entry2116374
LaoPo
this "crash" is irrelevant for most of us as AUD vs. THB has been quite stable during the period mentioned by Bloomie. see my posting:
http://www.thaivisa....=...t&p=2117171
Edited by Naam, 2008-07-31 15:57:10.
Posted 2008-07-31 16:00:19
lannarebirth, on 2008-07-31 08:28:13, said: Naam, on 2008-07-31 08:01:09, said: lannarebirth, on 2008-07-30 19:59:43, said:
how many of those do exist LRB? 1/12th of a dozen?
I'm in that group of 11. Problem is, I sometimes think too much, and that's not always beneficial.
Australians account for 4,41% of total tourism to Thailand in 2007 and that is about 638.000 tourists out of a total of 14,4 Million tourists/visitors. Most of those Australians are just interested in the exchange rate to the Baht during their holiday.
Like in any other country, the majority of a(ny) country however has not a clue what the exchange rate is of their own currency versus another currency.
I have no idea how many Ozzie expats there are in Thailand but some of them could be interested in:
Thoughts/predictions On Aus Dollar Exchange Rates, Good investment move? the title of the topic. 
LaoPo
Posted 2008-07-31 19:14:45
Naam, on 2008-07-31 10:54:55, said: LaoPo, on 2008-07-31 15:49:28, said: Naam, on 2008-07-31 01:49:30, said: what drop?
From a Bloomberg article in here:
http://www.thaivisa....74#entry2116374
LaoPo
as AUD vs. THB has been quite stable during the period mentioned by Bloomie. see my posting:
http://www.thaivisa....=...t&p=2117171
I agree.
The only thing I mentioned was that a 'higher' % on a currency is always risky what the returns are concerned. The 7.25%/AUD$ and a drop of the same AUD$ of 3.4% within a week showed that. That's all.
It isn't the end of the world of course but if one expects a return of 7.25% it's a bit sour.
Apart from that, the AUD$ dropped further today.
But, I'm* out of here since I'm not too interested in the AUD$ anyway 
* but the Japanese are, of course, with their extreme low lending rate:
Japan Individuals Buy Australian, New Zealand Dollars
http://www.bloomberg...orld_currencies
LaoPo
Edited by LaoPo, 2008-07-31 19:17:37.
Posted 2008-08-01 06:18:05
The Australian dollar AUD is the fifth most traded currency. Interest rates are high. One can obtain 6 to 8%pa on a term deposit before tax. The AUD is almost on a par with the USD.
Remember the AUD traded at a low of $0.48 US in 2001. It is now around $0.95. The resources industries are all that is keeping the Australian economy going. Inflation is at 4.5%, the RBA states this is too high, the share market is down and superannuation funds may have lost up to 15% of their value in the past F/Y 2007/2008, a negative return.
Posted 2008-08-01 08:42:32
david96, on 2008-07-31 23:18:05, said: The Australian dollar AUD is the fifth most traded currency. Interest rates are high. One can obtain 6 to 8%pa on a term deposit before tax. The AUD is almost on a par with the USD.
Remember the AUD traded at a low of $0.48 US in 2001. It is now around $0.95. The resources industries are all that is keeping the Australian economy going. Inflation is at 4.5%, the RBA states this is too high, the share market is down and superannuation funds may have lost up to 15% of their value in the past F/Y 2007/2008, a negative return.
David not debating your post its just that "AUD is the fifth most traded currency" supprises me as it (the Oz $) does not appear on the news nor in major dailies when they show exchange rates etc you have to go looking fot it.
Comment only not critique.
Posted 2008-08-01 08:55:12
for what it's worth an opinion from Morgan Stanley dated july 31, 2008 (exerpt only):
EUR/USD, GBP/USD, NZD/USD and AUD/USD should drift lower
The dollar is likely
to be forming a multi-year bottom against the majors. The
inability of EUR/USD to hold above 1.60 two weeks ago, when
news on the US economy was terrible, is important, as it may
reflect the extreme misalignment of EUR/USD. With the
European economy slowing, the refi rate may very well be at its
cycle peak, but the FFR may be at its cycle trough. It looks much
more difficult for EUR/USD to rise significantly further without
triggering a policy response from either the ECB or the US
officials. At the same time, the economies of the UK, New
Zealand and, more recently, Australia have begun to struggle
almost as much as the US. A more dovish interest rate outlook
in these economies should lead to varying degrees of currency
weakness against the dollar. While the positive ToT shock
Australia has enjoyed may help cushion the AUD, and the BoE’s
hawkish stance may help limit the downside risks to cable, it is in
any case our opinion that the USD will outperform EUR, GBP,
NZD and AUD in the quarters ahead, to varying extents.
Posted 2008-08-01 09:00:38
according to JPMorgan these are the most traded currencies listed according to volume (as of march 31, 2008):
1. USD
2. EUR
3. GBP
4. JPN
5. CHF
6. AUD
7. CAD
Posted 2008-08-01 10:21:37
UBS on AUD - aug 1, 2008:
AUD: Fortunes turned once again on commodities
Aussie's mood shifted to the better after its June trade balance turned
to a surplus from higher coal exports. It endured heavy loss just a day
before on softer oil and gold prices. Exports are expected to remain
strong after mining firms secured as much as 97% of price hike in iron
ore to China.
Posted 2008-08-01 20:48:23
Naam, on 2008-08-01 04:21:37, said: UBS on AUD - aug 1, 2008:
AUD: Fortunes turned once again on commodities
Aussie's mood shifted to the better after its June trade balance turned
to a surplus from higher coal exports. It endured heavy loss just a day
before on softer oil and gold prices. Exports are expected to remain
strong after mining firms secured as much as 97% of price hike in iron
ore to China.
Naam not being a financial or anything else wizard I read your post with interest and interpreted it together with the TT exchange rate for the Oz$ as being good steadying news pointing towards the up & up.
If my interpretation is wrong I am sure i will be informed. 
Posted 2008-08-01 23:00:31
mijan24, on 2008-08-01 14:48:23, said: Naam, on 2008-08-01 04:21:37, said: UBS on AUD - aug 1, 2008:
AUD: Fortunes turned once again on commodities
Aussie's mood shifted to the better after its June trade balance turned
to a surplus from higher coal exports. It endured heavy loss just a day
before on softer oil and gold prices. Exports are expected to remain
strong after mining firms secured as much as 97% of price hike in iron
ore to China.
Naam not being a financial or anything else wizard I read your post with interest and interpreted it together with the TT exchange rate for the Oz$ as being good steadying news pointing towards the up & up.
If my interpretation is wrong I am sure i will be informed.
true, but the australian economy is starting to soften. As such, inflationary fears/concerns begin to receede and the RBA will likely lower interest rates. Lower interst rates mean a lower interest rate differential between the Australian dollar and the US, and the AUD should soften...other things being equal...
Posted 2008-08-02 07:47:17
mijan24, on 2008-08-01 20:48:23, said: Naam, on 2008-08-01 04:21:37, said: UBS on AUD - aug 1, 2008:
AUD: Fortunes turned once again on commodities
Aussie's mood shifted to the better after its June trade balance turned
to a surplus from higher coal exports. It endured heavy loss just a day
before on softer oil and gold prices. Exports are expected to remain
strong after mining firms secured as much as 97% of price hike in iron
ore to China.
Naam not being a financial or anything else wizard I read your post with interest and interpreted it together with the TT exchange rate for the Oz$ as being good steadying news pointing towards the up & up.
If my interpretation is wrong I am sure i will be informed.
Samran answered your question Mijan.
quote: " true, but the australian economy is starting to soften. As such, inflationary fears/concerns begin to receede and the RBA will likely lower interest rates. Lower interst rates mean a lower interest rate differential between the Australian dollar and the US, and the AUD should soften...other things being equal..."
Posted 2008-08-04 16:10:01
Naam, on 2008-08-02 07:47:17, said: mijan24, on 2008-08-01 20:48:23, said: Naam, on 2008-08-01 04:21:37, said: UBS on AUD - aug 1, 2008:
AUD: Fortunes turned once again on commodities
Aussie's mood shifted to the better after its June trade balance turned
to a surplus from higher coal exports. It endured heavy loss just a day
before on softer oil and gold prices. Exports are expected to remain
strong after mining firms secured as much as 97% of price hike in iron
ore to China.
Naam not being a financial or anything else wizard I read your post with interest and interpreted it together with the TT exchange rate for the Oz$ as being good steadying news pointing towards the up & up.
If my interpretation is wrong I am sure i will be informed.
Samran answered your question Mijan.
quote: " true, but the australian economy is starting to soften. As such, inflationary fears/concerns begin to receede and the RBA will likely lower interest rates. Lower interst rates mean a lower interest rate differential between the Australian dollar and the US, and the AUD should soften...other things being equal..."
AUD vs. U.S. Dollar
Near Term Trend: Neutral/ Negative
Friday’s Close: 92.50
Despite the market trading up to 97.70 in the last 2 weeks, we expected a test of support at 9368 (the 21- week Moving Average Line) which occurred on July 24. At that point we asked whether this was a temporary test of support or the beginning of a further legdown. The outcome was as we had feared - when we wrote "The uptrend remains intact but seems to be running out of steam - bad day for US economy and equities yesterday, if re-affirmed today, could however provide that impetus and be the spur for the next leg-up by AUD. Watch US data releases and markte responses very closely right now. Risk remains extremely high, any currency exposures should be viewed as high risk unless time-focused or with clear exit strategy/downside protection, such as stops etc."
US data was relatively positive as the US dollar strengthened amid supportive comments from US officials and some broadly positive US corporate earnings data. Long positions in the high-yielding Australian dollar suffered the largest loss as the currency retreated on the back of concerns over Australian banks’exposure to the US sub-prime market and lower commodity prices. The Australian currency fell 1.8% against the US dollar during the period towards the end of last week and that pushed AUD 120 points lower, finishing the trading week below 93.00
91.00 is a possibility for this current move.
However don't forget that any change in US data could lead to a reversal but the positive trend now appears to have broken. Watch the cross rate closely but also watch USD data closely.
All previous caveats and disclaimers apply.
Posted 2008-08-04 17:26:42
I said it at the beginning of this thread. I'm definitely bearish on the AUD. The Australian economy is buoyed on commodities and all the signs suggest the commodities bubble is starting to deflate. Add in the only now emerging news of the extent to with the subprime crisis has affected the Australian banks (NAB's announcement last week, and who else to follow), and I think it's going to start drifting southwards. The RBA is expected to cut interest rates this week too.
the AUD bought 98 US cents a couple of weeks ago. Today it's below 93 cents. Thankfully, the baht is as weak as the AUD so they are cancelling each other out.
we'll see . .
Posted 2008-08-04 20:25:24
bendix, on 2008-08-04 10:26:42, said: I said it at the beginning of this thread. I'm definitely bearish on the AUD. The Australian economy is buoyed on commodities and all the signs suggest the commodities bubble is starting to deflate. Add in the only now emerging news of the extent to with the subprime crisis has affected the Australian banks (NAB's announcement last week, and who else to follow), and I think it's going to start drifting southwards. The RBA is expected to cut interest rates this week too.
the AUD bought 98 US cents a couple of weeks ago. Today it's below 93 cents. Thankfully, the baht is as weak as the AUD so they are cancelling each other out.
we'll see . .
suspect australia will come out of this better than the US. Australia has had a year of warnings over the horizon from the states, which has made people more cautious. Annecdotally (of course) people have seen 'something' coming, so have paid down their debts on mortgages and credit cards as much as they can. This advanced warning, combined with relatively strong commodity prices, will see the landing be softer than elsewhere.
Posted 2008-08-05 16:38:04
samran, on 2008-08-04 20:25:24, said: bendix, on 2008-08-04 10:26:42, said: I said it at the beginning of this thread. I'm definitely bearish on the AUD. The Australian economy is buoyed on commodities and all the signs suggest the commodities bubble is starting to deflate. Add in the only now emerging news of the extent to with the subprime crisis has affected the Australian banks (NAB's announcement last week, and who else to follow), and I think it's going to start drifting southwards. The RBA is expected to cut interest rates this week too.
the AUD bought 98 US cents a couple of weeks ago. Today it's below 93 cents. Thankfully, the baht is as weak as the AUD so they are cancelling each other out.
we'll see . .
suspect australia will come out of this better than the US. Australia has had a year of warnings over the horizon from the states, which has made people more cautious. Annecdotally (of course) people have seen 'something' coming, so have paid down their debts on mortgages and credit cards as much as they can. This advanced warning, combined with relatively strong commodity prices, will see the landing be softer than elsewhere.
I wouldn't get too dogmatic either way; both currencies are hostages to events and their unfolding that no-one can predict - within a year or two you could see AUD:USD back at 2:1 or as strong as 1:2. This is uncharted territory and while I'd expect USD to strengthen over the medium to long term, it could totally implode. CAVEAT EMPTOR!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Posted 2008-08-06 18:26:24
Paul, for someone who presumably makes his advice giving advice, you have shown a remarkable propensity for sitting on the fence and saying nothing.
Jeez . . A trained monkey could say 'on the one hand this, on the one hand the other' and get paid for it. Where do I send my cv?
Posted 2008-08-06 18:46:45
OZ central bank indicated yesterday that a rate cut based on the latest economic figures (which triggered the slide a few days ago) is in the offing. a part of AUD weakness is of course recent USD "strength".
Posted 2008-08-06 19:02:21
bendix, on 2008-08-06 18:26:24, said: 'on the one hand this, on the one hand the other'
that's the reason why one always hears the demands "CHOP OFF BOTH HANDS OF ECONOMISTS AND ANALYSTS!" 
Posted 2008-08-07 16:48:48
Australian Dollar Falls to Four-Month Low as Commodities Slide
By Ron Harui and Candice Zachariahs
Aug. 7 (Bloomberg) -- The Australian dollar fell to the lowest in more than four months as price indexes for commodities the nation exports slid for a fifth day.
The currency declined for an eighth day before a government report that economists estimate will show jobs growth slowed, adding to signs a cooling economy will allow the Reserve Bank of Australia to reduce the benchmark interest rate. Governor Glenn Stevens said Aug. 5, after keeping borrowing costs on hold, that the ``scope to move toward a less restrictive stance of monetary policy'' was increasing as demand slowed.
``We have indications that the domestic economy is very weak and if on top of that you get indications that commodities are coming off in price it means you have both barrels shooting against the Australian dollar,'' said Steven Englander, a currency strategist at Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. in New York.
The local dollar traded at 91.03 U.S. cents as of 10:52 a.m. in Sydney from 91.55 cents late in Asia yesterday. It reached 90.65 cents, the weakest since April 2. The currency, known as the Aussie, climbed to 99.56 yen from 99.44.
Australia's dollar fell against 15 of the 16 most-traded currencies as the Reuters/Jeffries CRB Index of 19 commodities and the UBS Constant Maturity Index of 26 raw materials slid for a fifth day yesterday in New York.
Crude oil futures fell as low as $117.11 a barrel, 20 percent below the July 11 record of $147.27 in New York. Crude oil is Australia's fourth most-valuable raw material export. Commodity shipments contribute 17 percent to the nation's economy.
Job Growth
The currency weakened before a report that will say Australian employers hired 5,000 more workers in July, from 29,800 in the previous month, according to the median forecast of 24 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News. The statistics bureau will release the report at 11:30 a.m. in Sydney.
The Aussie has lost 0.9 percent since the RBA kept borrowing costs at a 12-year high of 7.25 percent on Aug. 5 and signaled rate cuts ahead.
The RBA will lower its benchmark rate by 0.83 percentage point over the next 12 months, according to a Credit Suisse Group index based on overnight swaps trading yesterday. The bank will definitely cut rates by 0.25 percentage point at its next meeting in September another Credit Suisse index showed. The RBA usually adjusts the target rate in 0.25 percentage point increments.
A benchmark rate of 7.25 percent in Australia, compared with 0.5 percent in Japan and 2 percent in the U.S., has made the Aussie a favorite with investors seeking higher-yielding assets.
``These trades worked so well for so many and the unwind is underway,'' said Adam Fazio, a currency strategist at CIBC World Markets Inc. in New York yesterday.
`Trend Support'
If the currency breaks below so-called support at its March low of 89.55 U.S. cents, the Australian dollar should weaken to as low as 85.50, Fazio said. Support is a level where buy orders may be clustered.
``Once we get down there we're testing long-term trend support and we really need to reassess whether more losses are in store,'' Fazio said.
Australian two-year government bonds snapped 11 days of gains, pushing the yield up 1 basis point to 6 percent. The price of the 5.25 percent security due August 2010 fell 0.015, or A$0.15 per A$1,000 face amount, to 98.605. A basis point is 0.01 percentage point.
---Bloomberg
LaoPo
Posted 2008-08-09 17:17:52
Happened on this today. Not conclusive in and of itself, but surely not a good trend:
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