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[VegasVic]

flying, on 2008-10-25 12:01:59, said:

ace, on 2008-10-24 18:57:43, said:

Getting very close to that $670....But is $550 round the corner?

I saw it hit 682 last night & thought Yeah !! Maybe I can buy tomorrow.
But woke up & it was up 50 already

I finally found some & it is still there but I want to get a bit lower in price.
We will see....maybe I will regret it.

It closed at $731/ounce today, but I still think that we will see the mid $600's and lower as the Dollar continues on its bull run, and Oil continues its slide  

[flying]

VegasVic, on 2008-10-24 19:18:58, said:

It closed at $731/ounce today, but I still think that we will see the mid $600's and lower as the Dollar continues on its bull run, and Oil continues its slide  

Im not in a rush
I feel the same way. I think it will find support at 650 & I will grab some bars.
I can get those at 3% above spot. Coins still have too high a premium at 9%

Then wait & see if the 650 level holds.

[alantheembalmer]

If you want to take a look at what can happen to one commodity, just see what has happened to rhodium this year.

[colibra]

I think we are seeing the raping of america wealth again. It seems to happen every few years and yes it is manipulated. We have seen the dollar drop over the last few yeas and europeans and other nationalities jump on the realestate band wagon buying everything in sight because in some places price were climbing at 4% per month. Now that they have crashed everyone is losing and all those nice 401ks and retirement plans are being fleeced. What is left. Where did many people run to Gold and now it will be fleeced also. Get out of gold and take your profits. you can always buy back in when it starts to rise again.

As far as i can see this fleecing happens about ever 10 to twenty years. Last time there was a big fleecing it was of the Japaneese who buying up everything in sight and there was a similar realestate bubble, and gold was up and everybody was building shelters and storing food. It is a planned, premeditated manipulation to take back the wealth that has been accumulated by the people and foreign investors. Where is all the wealth going someone is getting rich. As they say follow the money trail.

[VegasVic]

colibra, on 2008-10-26 00:03:01, said:

I think we are seeing the raping of america wealth again. It seems to happen every few years and yes it is manipulated. We have seen the dollar drop over the last few yeas and europeans and other nationalities jump on the realestate band wagon buying everything in sight because in some places price were climbing at 4% per month. Now that they have crashed everyone is losing and all those nice 401ks and retirement plans are being fleeced. What is left. Where did many people run to Gold and now it will be fleeced also. Get out of gold and take your profits. you can always buy back in when it starts to rise again.

As far as i can see this fleecing happens about ever 10 to twenty years. Last time there was a big fleecing it was of the Japaneese who buying up everything in sight and there was a similar realestate bubble, and gold was up and everybody was building shelters and storing food. It is a planned, premeditated manipulation to take back the wealth that has been accumulated by the people and foreign investors. Where is all the wealth going someone is getting rich. As they say follow the money trail.

Colibra,  As an anti-goldbug I would usually agree with you, however the dynamic is slightly different this time around. Despit the crash in commodities and the rise in the Dollar recently, gold has held up remarakably well and that along with this strange anomaly across the globe with this scarcity of gold bars and coins, makes me believe some of the reports that there are central banks and private investors who are taking physical possesion of the metal and causing a shortage on the actual physical market may be true. Also the world is in recession and even feeling a bout of deflation, but givin the masive influx of funds worlwide from governments to aid in this time of crisis we will be seeing inflation rear its ugly head in the not too distant future. I still believe that Gold will head lower from here, but I would be surprised if it goes much lower than $600/ounce. Longer term with inflation on the horizon and large scale geopolitical risks across the globe I think that there is a chance that Gold will head back up over the next 12-18 months. Thats just my take on the situation for what its worth, I have already taken my hedge so I am covered no matter how this plays out!

[flying]

VegasVic, on 2008-10-25 07:51:29, said:

As an anti-goldbug I would usually agree with you, however the dynamic is slightly different this time around. Despit the crash in commodities and the rise in the Dollar recently, gold has held up remarakably well and that along with this strange anomaly across the globe with this scarcity of gold bars and coins, makes me believe some of the reports that there are central banks and private investors who are taking physical possesion of the metal and causing a shortage on the actual physical market may be true.

I dont know about banks but I have had friends around the worl tell me & saw 1st hand private investors stocking up.
We are not talking small $$$ either.

[colibra]

I thik you are right. Gold will go back up but not until it crashes not sure where that bottom will be. But it won't be until most of the of the small investors that moved into it as a safe place for their wealth have sold out and then they will come back in and buy it cheap and then it may be  be up for quite a while. It only makes sense that if you print a bunch of money it would devalue the money out there. But that is the logic if the money is really backed by something. Not sure it holds true for our current situation. I have just watched over the years how they operate. How back in the 60 they started putting independents out of business in a lot of areas like private gas stations and farms and mom and pop groceries. Its seems like it just has exspanded from there and I have no reason to believe this is not a manipulated crises now to take more of the wealth back. Not sure who such as NWO necessarily but people in high places. We can find out who is behind all this if we can find out who is raking in the dough right now. I'm not sure were to start looking but I have some Ideas.

Edited by colibra, 2008-10-26 01:40:04.

[colibra]

Now we have all the hedge funds failing. Looks at all the people who invested in those that now will lose a lot of there investment. Someone is making a bundle off all the loses the people are losing. Its like one after another areas of wealth are under attack. This is a big one and I think there will not be many left standing when its all over.

UNDER SIEGE

I am fairly secure as I do not owe any money and have diversified my investment between realestate here and in the US and cash Baht and USD and a small amount of gold and silver with a few precious stones throne in.

[lannarebirth]

FWIW:

http://www.financial.../2008/1024.html

[flying]

lannarebirth, on 2008-10-25 10:48:54, said:

FWIW:

http://www.financial.../2008/1024.html

Thanks

I am no expert at charts but that 1st chart is what I also saw.
Which is why I thought I would wait for that support back around 650
then buy a small amount & see.
If it went lower I would try again at the 450 area.

But you know ...... I wonder. Do you think during times like these tech & normal thinking goes out the window?

[lannarebirth]

flying, on 2008-10-26 04:05:42, said:

lannarebirth, on 2008-10-25 10:48:54, said:

FWIW:

http://www.financial.../2008/1024.html

Thanks

I am no expert at charts but that 1st chart is what I also saw.
Which is why I thought I would wait for that support back around 650
then buy a small amount & see.
If it went lower I would try again at the 450 area.

But you know ...... I wonder. Do you think during times like these tech & normal thinking goes out the window?

I'm not sure about the T/A, but normal thinking always goes out the window... eventually.  My personal opinion is, 650ish is too well staked out, meaning it doesn't make it there, or if it does it slices right through.  BWDIK?

[flying]

lannarebirth, on 2008-10-25 11:16:25, said:

I'm not sure about the T/A, but normal thinking always goes out the window... eventually.  My personal opinion is, 650ish is too well staked out, meaning it doesn't make it there, or if it does it slices right through.  BWDIK?

Thanks I bet you know more than you think
I would be happy if it did slice right through 650.
Then I wouldnt waste any resources there.

Do you have any thoughts on Silver?

[lannarebirth]

flying, on 2008-10-26 04:20:57, said:

lannarebirth, on 2008-10-25 11:16:25, said:

I'm not sure about the T/A, but normal thinking always goes out the window... eventually. My personal opinion is, 650ish is too well staked out, meaning it doesn't make it there, or if it does it slices right through. BWDIK?

Thanks I bet you know more than you think
I would be happy if it did slice right through 650.
Then I wouldnt waste any resources there.

Do you have any thoughts on Silver?

Absolutely none.

[flying]

lannarebirth, on 2008-10-25 11:23:08, said:

Absolutely none.

Me neither but I bought some anyway     

In spite of the downtrend I bought some on a lark because it was locally available for 9.45 / oz +2

I figured it cant hurt too bad & I always wanted some PM in hand. Leave it for the kids

[VIBE]

flying, on 2008-10-26 04:31:46, said:

lannarebirth, on 2008-10-25 11:23:08, said:

Absolutely none.

Me neither but I bought some anyway     

In spite of the downtrend I bought some on a lark because it was locally available for 9.45 / oz +2

I figured it cant hurt too bad & I always wanted some PM in hand. Leave it for the kids

I dont think it can hurt either.  Nothing wrong with diversifying a bit.  I am bullish on silver and palladium for the long term, more so on palladium as it is very scarce and the main countries that supply it are not the most stable, politically.  However, I am out of luck when it comes to buying more 1oz coins of silver and palladium, as all the dealers in North America are out of stock.    Very strange this surge in demand of the physical, while such a hard sell off of paper.

[flying]

VIBE, on 2008-10-25 21:44:24, said:

I dont think it can hurt either.  Nothing wrong with diversifying a bit.  I am bullish on silver and palladium for the long term, more so on palladium as it is very scarce and the main countries that supply it are not the most stable, politically.  However, I am out of luck when it comes to buying more 1oz coins of silver and palladium, as all the dealers in North America are out of stock.    Very strange this surge in demand of the physical, while such a hard sell off of paper.

Cool Vibe !

I am thinking long term too. I was not into PM before but now that I have started I must admit it is a bit addicting isn't it? I know what you mean about lack of stock. Everywhere is out.
I just lucked out as a dealer here had 6000oz of rounds on order & although most were spoken for I still got a nice start.
Good Luck

[lannarebirth]

Two observations:

1) this gold bar restriction is very remeniscent of the panic we observed in LPG lines, just as oil was topping out.  Interestingly, Gold is not making new highs (not in $'s anyway).

2) a friend of mine in the states tried to buy some gold coins at 685 last week, as Gold was trading lower.  The dealer was aking $USD710, with the rational being "I'm not going to take a loss on these coins".  It would seem at least "some" dealers are holding inventory they are underwater on, and that could be a contributory factor to the "scarcity" that people say is present in the market.

[BEENTHEREDONETHAT]

lannarebirth, on 2008-10-27 17:53:52, said:

Two observations:

1) this gold bar restriction is very remeniscent of the panic we observed in LPG lines, just as oil was topping out. Interestingly, Gold is not making new highs (not in $'s anyway).

2) a friend of mine in the states tried to buy some gold coins at 685 last week, as Gold was trading lower. The dealer was aking $USD710, with the rational being "I'm not going to take a loss on these coins". It would seem at least "some" dealers are holding inventory they are underwater on, and that could be a contributory factor to the "scarcity" that people say is present in the market.

They use to charge a premium for coins over gold bars. The amount of premium depended on which coin you chose. The lowest premium was for the Krugerand, then the Maple leaf and the highest premium for for the Chinese Panda. Sorry don't recall how much the premium was but about 10% rings a bell. This was in the 80's so probably dosen't mean much now.

[Naam]

BEENTHEREDONETHAT, on 2008-10-27 18:13:34, said:

lannarebirth, on 2008-10-27 17:53:52, said:

Two observations:

1) this gold bar restriction is very remeniscent of the panic we observed in LPG lines, just as oil was topping out. Interestingly, Gold is not making new highs (not in $'s anyway).

2) a friend of mine in the states tried to buy some gold coins at 685 last week, as Gold was trading lower. The dealer was aking $USD710, with the rational being "I'm not going to take a loss on these coins". It would seem at least "some" dealers are holding inventory they are underwater on, and that could be a contributory factor to the "scarcity" that people say is present in the market.

They use to charge a premium for coins over gold bars. The amount of premium depended on which coin you chose. The lowest premium was for the Krugerand, then the Maple leaf and the highest premium for for the Chinese Panda. Sorry don't recall how much the premium was but about 10% rings a bell. This was in the 80's so probably dosen't mean much now.

the difference in premiums still exists and is based on mainly two factors:

1. the purity of gold in the coins differs although each coin has exactly one ounze of 999 fine gold.

2. the availability of coins. "Krüger-Rands" are more easily available than for example the swiss "Gold Vreneli" or the canadian "Maple Leaf".

remark: coins have the advantage of having rather small denominations. but the general ignorant gold bug (GOLD WILL BE 10,000! IT'S ONLY A MATTER OF TIME!) overlooked the fact that even 5 and 10 gram bars (less than 1/6 and 1/3 of an ounce) were available in the (european) market with a much smaller mark-up than coins. by now these are sold out too of course.

[lannarebirth]

BEENTHEREDONETHAT, on 2008-10-27 19:13:34, said:

lannarebirth, on 2008-10-27 17:53:52, said:

Two observations:

1) this gold bar restriction is very remeniscent of the panic we observed in LPG lines, just as oil was topping out. Interestingly, Gold is not making new highs (not in $'s anyway).

2) a friend of mine in the states tried to buy some gold coins at 685 last week, as Gold was trading lower. The dealer was aking $USD710, with the rational being "I'm not going to take a loss on these coins". It would seem at least "some" dealers are holding inventory they are underwater on, and that could be a contributory factor to the "scarcity" that people say is present in the market.

They use to charge a premium for coins over gold bars. The amount of premium depended on which coin you chose. The lowest premium was for the Krugerand, then the Maple leaf and the highest premium for for the Chinese Panda. Sorry don't recall how much the premium was but about 10% rings a bell. This was in the 80's so probably dosen't mean much now.

I'm going from memory on the prices, but my point was, the dealer would not sell at all, unless he could be made whole, which was a point above the usual premium paid.  I think a lot of dealers have had to restock at prices higher than they would wish and therefore have to carry asset price risk.  Ordinarily, asian dealers seem to be content making most of their money on the transactional vig, and may not be so schooled in locking in prices through the futures pits.

[Naam]

lannarebirth, on 2008-10-27 19:07:53, said:

I'm going from memory on the prices, but my point was, the dealer would not sell at all, unless he could be made whole, which was a point above the usual premium paid.  I think a lot of dealers have had to restock at prices higher than they would wish and therefore have to carry asset price risk.  Ordinarily, asian dealers seem to be content making most of their money on the transactional vig, and may not be so schooled in locking in prices through the futures pits.

???    ??? meaning what in a language i understand?

[lannarebirth]

Naam, on 2008-10-27 21:57:45, said:

lannarebirth, on 2008-10-27 19:07:53, said:

I'm going from memory on the prices, but my point was, the dealer would not sell at all, unless he could be made whole, which was a point above the usual premium paid. I think a lot of dealers have had to restock at prices higher than they would wish and therefore have to carry asset price risk. Ordinarily, asian dealers seem to be content making most of their money on the transactional vig, and may not be so schooled in locking in prices through the futures pits.

??? ??? meaning what in a language i understand?

To be made whole is to recover losses (lower price than payed in this case).  Vig is a loansharking term, but it applies to gold dealers and pawn shops as well, it's the price chrged for services, aside from the price of asset.  I think Asians tend to load up at low prices to sell on at higher prices.  I think they are less comfortable in a fast high volatility market, where they could be underwater (holding a losing position) rapidly.  In the more "sophisticated" markets dealers buy protection through the use of futures contrats.  I'm not so sure if that's how they do it here. They may, but I don't know.

[VegasVic]

lannarebirth, on 2008-10-27 21:10:18, said:

Naam, on 2008-10-27 21:57:45, said:

lannarebirth, on 2008-10-27 19:07:53, said:

I'm going from memory on the prices, but my point was, the dealer would not sell at all, unless he could be made whole, which was a point above the usual premium paid. I think a lot of dealers have had to restock at prices higher than they would wish and therefore have to carry asset price risk. Ordinarily, asian dealers seem to be content making most of their money on the transactional vig, and may not be so schooled in locking in prices through the futures pits.

??? ??? meaning what in a language i understand?

To be made whole is to recover losses (lower price than payed in this case).  Vig is a loansharking term, but it applies to gold dealers and pawn shops as well, it's the price chrged for services, aside from the price of asset.  I think Asians tend to load up at low prices to sell on at higher prices.  I think they are less comfortable in a fast high volatility market, where they could be underwater (holding a losing position) rapidly.  In the more "sophisticated" markets dealers buy protection through the use of futures contrats.  I'm not so sure if that's how they do it here. They may, but I don't know.

Vigorish is oftened used in Vegas as the % of the house take, most commonly in the sports books a standard 10% on the gross ammount of any wager (i.e. lay down $110 to make $100 the vig is 10% on any particular bet but the house makes a guaranteed 5% if they have laid everything off evenly so in the houses eyes the vig 5%). I believe its a yiddish term originally and Lanna is right that it is also used as a term by loan sharks to expres the % interest on a loan, although the term juice is much more common in the states for such activities. Back to gold, I am not sure if gold is nearing a bottom but the Dollar is up huge today vs. the Euro and Pound and yet gold is flat and the miners are actually up a little?  I agree that there is not always an inverse relationship with gold and the Dollar like there is with Oil, but usually its pretty close. Gold is a bit of an anomally because it has very little industrial application any more (less than 11%) unlike silver and Platinum which have a growing industrial demand. The primary reason that I recently took my position in the gold stocks was for hedging purposes because I have a strong feeling that there could be some sort of geopolitical event or terrorist attack over the coming months that could spike gold.

[AlexLah]

Can somebody please explain.

What is the purpose of leasing Gold, and why the rise in cost of leasing Gold.

 au_go_0030_lsb.gif   10.95K   0 downloads


While the price of real Gold is declining even though many people report that Gold bars are not easy to find..

 au0030lnb.gif   7.17K   0 downloads

Is the Spot price of Gold related to the Paper Comex Gold?

What will happen if people that have/own Comex Gold want to see real Gold?

Very confused.

Alex

[flying]

lannarebirth, on 2008-10-27 04:10:18, said:

Naam, on 2008-10-27 21:57:45, said:

lannarebirth, on 2008-10-27 19:07:53, said:

I'm going from memory on the prices, but my point was, the dealer would not sell at all, unless he could be made whole, which was a point above the usual premium paid. I think a lot of dealers have had to restock at prices higher than they would wish and therefore have to carry asset price risk. Ordinarily, asian dealers seem to be content making most of their money on the transactional vig, and may not be so schooled in locking in prices through the futures pits.

??? ??? meaning what in a language i understand?

To be made whole is to recover losses (lower price than payed in this case).  Vig is a loansharking term, but it applies to gold dealers and pawn shops as well, it's the price chrged for services, aside from the price of asset.  I think Asians tend to load up at low prices to sell on at higher prices.  I think they are less comfortable in a fast high volatility market, where they could be underwater (holding a losing position) rapidly.  In the more "sophisticated" markets dealers buy protection through the use of futures contrats.  I'm not so sure if that's how they do it here. They may, but I don't know.

Could be but I have never seen gold sold without the spread or vig as you say.
I also see the same Namm mentions but maybe in reverse?
For instance I see swiss Pamps 100gr is sopt + 3.75%
Yet coins like Kruggerands & Perth lunar mouses are spot + 9%
Odd because as you say purity is actually better on the bar. The Kruggerand has a bit of copper? I guess for hardness to make the coin last without damage?

Also like you say the fractual smaller coins would have been great but everytime I see any the premium is actually higher than both I mentioned.
Could be the survivalist want the smaller coins thinking to buy goods when TSHTF?

Edited by flying, 2008-10-27 23:50:41.