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[Paulo1]

hyperdimension, on 2008-12-12 17:17:46, said:

I just got stopped out of my AUD/JPY short position due to a quick bounce back up. I should have stayed home today... I would have been able to catch the obvious breaks through support levels. Oh well, I'd much rather lose a small amount and move on than to keep holding on to a possibly very large uncontrolled loss. I try to keep each loss to within 2% or 3% of my trading account.

After such a sharp fall today in the Australian dollar, a question now is how much of the anticipated falls on the stock market has already been priced in. We'll have to wait and see how the market acts tonight on the Australian dollar.

I'm going out tonight, so I think I'm going to miss some big moves again when the stock markets open.

Paulo1, on 2008-12-12 16:32:31, said:

I like this pair at present. Nice smooth downtrend. The chart I have posted is a daily signal chart.

Yes USD/CHF looks smooth on 4 hour and daily charts. What time frame do you usually trade off? Do you use other time frames as confirmations?

What indicators do you use to identify a trend?

Hello Hyper,

The usual time frames I trade depends on the signals validiity or how strong it is. Mainly use a top down approach. Look at the monthly, daily, 4 hr, 1hr 15min, 5 min. The recent signal i got on the USD/CHF was so strong I traded it from an hourly. Its actually been one of the nicest signals for a while. I am not set in concrete and tend to get into the ebbs and flows of the market. (Trading in the Zone,) so to speak.

I really like using trendlines, support/resisitance levels, pivots, fib extensions, candles and one of my favourites is the CCI. This I use for divergence, support/resistance and entries. When you look at my charts you are not really seeing a MOV AV. I use pivot calculations and imput them into the mov ave, this way its more predictable than lagging.

i believe in keeping it as simple as possible.

I also agree with a post here that watching CNBC etc is not so good. The charts always tell the truth and thats all that relivant to me.

Just had a quick look at the AUD/JPY. I call it sideways at present and no confirmed trade. to much like hard work.

Here's part of my monday plan on the USD/CHF.

USD/CHF SHORT entered again yesterday evening @1.1838 stop 1.1858 closed saturday morning @ 1.1770ish.  New entry levels @ 1.1804 being the first and 1.1832 being the second short entry. Still holding one position from 1.1835.

Attached Files

•  usdchf209.JPG   158.65K   17 downloads

[DrGreenthumb]

Try to invest in good penny stocks, as they may explode someday.

[hyperdimension]

AUD/USD has just made an extreme spike in the past 2 hours, with 0.7000 being new resistance level.

I'm glad to have been stopped out of my AUD/JPY short positions.

I didn't go long because almost all of my assets (including cash) are denominated in AUD, so in effect I'm already very long AUD.
Holding any assets in a particular currency is like having a "long" position in that currency.
The only time you could ever be "neutral" is if you have no assets or if your assets no longer have any value!

I've been looking into the concept of individual currency strength and have been programming MetaTrader indicators based on CCFp. See these pages if interested:
Theoretical Basis of Building Cluster Indicators for FOREX
Practical Application of Cluster Indicators in FOREX

Attached Files

•  audusd_h1_2008_12_16.gif   52.52K   10 downloads

Edited by hyperdimension, 2008-12-17 03:55:08.

[Paulo1]

hyperdimension, on 2008-12-17 03:54:18, said:

AUD/USD has just made an extreme spike in the past 2 hours, with 0.7000 being new resistance level.

I'm glad to have been stopped out of my AUD/JPY short positions.

I didn't go long because almost all of my assets (including cash) are denominated in AUD, so in effect I'm already very long AUD.
Holding any assets in a particular currency is like having a "long" position in that currency.
The only time you could ever be "neutral" is if you have no assets or if your assets no longer have any value!

I've been looking into the concept of individual currency strength and have been programming MetaTrader indicators based on CCFp. See these pages if interested:
Theoretical Basis of Building Cluster Indicators for FOREX
Practical Application of Cluster Indicators in FOREX

Have been short the USD/CHF since the 9/12/2008. Almost 700 pips in the bank.

[hyperdimension]

Paulo1, on 2008-12-17 08:39:55, said:

Have been short the USD/CHF since the 9/12/2008. Almost 700 pips in the bank.

Good trading with USD/CHF. I made around 200 pips last night in demo trading whilst experimenting with a multi-timeframe strategy I'm working on using indicators based on CCFp. USD has been weak and CHF has been strong.

Based on what I see with CCFp, it looks like the only other better performers would have been pairing USD with AUD or NZD.

Attached Files

•  ccfp_diff_all_tf_2008_12_17.gif   25.49K   7 downloads
•  ccfp_usdchf_all_tf_2008_12_17.gif   41K   10 downloads

[Paulo1]

I have not posted for sometime due to the fact i have been to busy trading.  Last week plus 900 pips

EUR/GPB was a great trade. bounced off strong support and pivot, very strong signal @ 8856  2nd .8874  then charge to a high off .8997.

What i like mostly about this trade i entered with a 10 pip stop.

Attached Files

•  eurgpbtv.JPG   175.88K   10 downloads

[Naam]

i checked my portfolio for pips but couldn't find any. is that OK or should i buy some to be more diversified?  

[loong]

I've read this thread because of the heading, but there doesn't seem to be any mention of stockmarket trading - just forex.
Any thoughts on Ftse instruments at all?

[hyperdimension]

Paulo1, on 2009-03-08 11:24:17, said:

I have not posted for sometime due to the fact i have been to busy trading.  Last week plus 900 pips

EUR/GPB was a great trade. bounced off strong support and pivot, very strong signal @ 8856  2nd .8874  then charge to a high off .8997.

What i like mostly about this trade i entered with a 10 pip stop.

Yes good trade with EURGBP, though it would be even greater if you are still long; it's at 0.9163 now.
A 10 pip stop is quite tight for the hourly time frame, you would get stopped out quite often wouldn't you? The 20 bar hourly ATR has been around 20 to 30 pips.
Are you trading using your own discretion/intuition or an automated system?
Do you do much MetaTrader strategy programming? I've been doing a lot myself, currently working on a high frequency scalping system. See the attached TesterGraph.
While the rest of the world is in a mess, opportunities remain in currencies.

Attached Files

•  TesterGraph_AlpariUS_EURGBP_1999.01.01_2009.03.09_size_0.1.gif   40.21K   5 downloads

[gregswim]

Paulo1, on 2008-11-16 09:41:07, said:

I am presently living in Nong Khai and would like to meet or have dicussions on Trading Financial Markets. I have been trading for 15 years and am willing to give advice on different trading opportunities, systems development etc. Also, i would like learn from what others have to say.

You can reply here or send me a personal message.

Hi.  I am also a day trader as well as a swing trader, investor, etc.  I would like to connect with people in Thailand who are doing the same.  I am particularly interested in what trading platforms traders here have found that work well with the available speed of the internet here.  Is anyone successfully trading with Interactive Brokers???  I am trying to trade with a proprietary trading platform -- but I am finding that the execution speeds and the real time data lags -- to such a degree that I need to find another trading platform.  I trade the NY market -- S&P, Nasdaq, Dow, etc.  Thanks for any advice.

Greg

[Paulo1]

EUR/USD.  Daily Chart  4th to 8th May out look

Positions of the MA's and the MACD.

From the Double Top in July I have run the to the top of the closing candle. It had trouble breaking the 1.3300 level. When it did. it never closed above it. I will look at this as my first R Level with a key Resistance Level @ 1.3580. I also notice it has bounced off the major trend line (1) about 9 times on the daily chart.  Major support being at 1.2900 level.

MA,s  89, 21, 8 have all come together on the Daily.  89 is Flat, 8 has crossed the 21, both point 15 degrees up. The 200 has crossed the 365. 200 is traveling parallel to to Trend line (1)

4HR ma,s  The last 5 candles have been trading off the 8ema, which seems to be support at present. prior Ma support was 4 candles bouncing off the 21. , 200 ma looks to be a resistance level whilst the 89 has crossed the 365 which is just pointing up and the 89 is almost parallel to the 21.

Macd. on the daily has 2 small green up bars. however on the 4hr it has run flat on the positive for now 7 bars.

Candles. Daily we have a shooting star,1 bar back, unsure about the last bar. gives me indecision.  4hr we have a shooting star, 2 bars back, both have tails ?


Conclusion. A close above trend line 1 would be my first alert to a long , would like to see a break and close above 1.3387 level would be a confirmation long. On the short side i would wait for a break/close, below 1.2900 for a short. I have no idea what's going to happen. The trend line 1 looks very strong to the short side.

In all I am sure there is a BIG move approaching so Keep a close eye on it.

Also there is alot of major news reports coming out all week. This could well be very volatile, so need to be aware.

Cheers,

Edited by Paulo1, 2009-05-03 15:22:21.

[Paulo1]

gregswim, on 2009-04-07 02:30:49, said:

Paulo1, on 2008-11-16 09:41:07, said:

I am presently living in Nong Khai and would like to meet or have dicussions on Trading Financial Markets. I have been trading for 15 years and am willing to give advice on different trading opportunities, systems development etc. Also, i would like learn from what others have to say.

You can reply here or send me a personal message.

Hi. I am also a day trader as well as a swing trader, investor, etc. I would like to connect with people in Thailand who are doing the same. I am particularly interested in what trading platforms traders here have found that work well with the available speed of the internet here. Is anyone successfully trading with Interactive Brokers??? I am trying to trade with a proprietary trading platform -- but I am finding that the execution speeds and the real time data lags -- to such a degree that I need to find another trading platform. I trade the NY market -- S&P, Nasdaq, Dow, etc. Thanks for any advice.

Greg

Hi Greg,

Internet speed here are fine however you can loose connection at anytime, guess like anywhere. I use 2 completely different connects, so I am covered.

Interactive brokers are very good. Have you traded with them before?

Paulo

[Paulo1]

hyperdimension, on 2009-03-10 11:39:51, said:

Paulo1, on 2009-03-08 11:24:17, said:

I have not posted for sometime due to the fact i have been to busy trading. Last week plus 900 pips

EUR/GPB was a great trade. bounced off strong support and pivot, very strong signal @ 8856 2nd .8874 then charge to a high off .8997.

What i like mostly about this trade i entered with a 10 pip stop.

Yes good trade with EURGBP, though it would be even greater if you are still long; it's at 0.9163 now.
A 10 pip stop is quite tight for the hourly time frame, you would get stopped out quite often wouldn't you? The 20 bar hourly ATR has been around 20 to 30 pips.
Are you trading using your own discretion/intuition or an automated system?
Do you do much MetaTrader strategy programming? I've been doing a lot myself, currently working on a high frequency scalping system. See the attached TesterGraph.
While the rest of the world is in a mess, opportunities remain in currencies.

Hi Hyper,

I use my own system. Yes i use MT4 . My progrmming for MT4 is limited. I am reall big on support/resistance levels, pivots and a few other things. been playing with Bollingers lately for entries and exits, setting 21.2  rsi 8 stoc 833.

In regards to my tight stop if i trade from the s/r levels, i do not get stopped that often. Some of my entries have been within 1 pip of s/r pivot. The biggest stop i use with this system is 25 pips. My screen is set the same as a pro,s. from top left, eur/usd, gpb/usd,aud/usd/ nzd/usd.  from bottom left. usd/jpy, cad/usd/ chf/usd/. I will onl have my s/r pivots on these charts. this is my main watch screen. Once i see approaching s/r pivot i will look at other indicators for over sold levels etc. If i am go long what is the RSI doing, where is it at. and so forth.

If you don't already do this try it, you will be surprised.

Be interesting to see this scalping system working, good luck.

Cheers

[ukme]

I would love to learn to trade/make a living online somehow. Even if I just could earn enough to cover my bills here in the UK - Say 1500 GBP per month. I have a few K GBP in savings/potential capital. I'm under so much stress/strain in my current job at the moment I've burnt out, on the verge of a breakdown even.

Seriously need a less stressful way to earn a living. Anybody prepared to teach a fellow how to trade online?

[Paulo1]

Additional Explanation on the EUR/USD

Charts added.

Attached Files

•  EurUsd_Anticipation.pdf   173.72K   18 downloads

[Paulo1]

Paulo1, on 2009-05-03 18:58:37, said:

Additional Explanation on the EUR/USD

Charts added.

OK. IF YOU FOLLOW THE PLAN AND STRATEGY YOU SHOULD NOW HAVE 80  PIPS ATLEAST IN THE BANK.

I entered  at 1.3327 and my stop was @ 1.3358. My stop is now 1.3331, Very strong resistance at 1.3329  My target maybe a little ambitous at 1.3273, TARGET HIT ON NUMBER 1 POSITION. 2ND TARGET HIT AT 1.3250  STOP NOW AT 1.3265, 1 POSITION OPEN.

[Paulo1]

Paulo1, on 2009-05-04 18:11:18, said:

Paulo1, on 2009-05-03 18:58:37, said:

Additional Explanation on the EUR/USD

Charts added.

OK. IF YOU FOLLOW THE PLAN AND STRATEGY YOU SHOULD NOW HAVE 80 PIPS ATLEAST IN THE BANK.

I entered at 1.3327 and my stop was @ 1.3358. My stop is now 1.3331, Very strong resistance at 1.3329 My target maybe a little ambitous at 1.3273, TARGET HIT ON NUMBER 1 POSITION. 2ND TARGET HIT AT 1.3250 STOP NOW AT 1.3265, 1 POSITION OPEN.

stop moved to 1.3242  plus 120 pips

Maybe running out of steam , notice the tails on the candles are getting longer which can be a early warning sign.

Back to the 4hr. I see a huge double top forming. If this breaks we could see 1.2996 = 300 plus pips.

[Paulo1]

Paulo1, on 2009-05-04 19:27:23, said:

Paulo1, on 2009-05-04 18:11:18, said:

Paulo1, on 2009-05-03 18:58:37, said:

Additional Explanation on the EUR/USD

Charts added.

OK. IF YOU FOLLOW THE PLAN AND STRATEGY YOU SHOULD NOW HAVE 80 PIPS ATLEAST IN THE BANK.

I entered at 1.3327 and my stop was @ 1.3358. My stop is now 1.3331, Very strong resistance at 1.3329 My target maybe a little ambitous at 1.3273, TARGET HIT ON NUMBER 1 POSITION. 2ND TARGET HIT AT 1.3250 STOP NOW AT 1.3265, 1 POSITION OPEN.

stop moved to 1.3242 plus 120 pips



Out 134 pip profit.

Entered Long at 1.3239  stop 1.3224 stop now move to 1.3317  = 78 pips in the bank.

Long entry is now back to this mornings trade. bumping of the major trendline again.

Strategy remains the same as one posted yesterday3/5/09

Maybe running out of steam , notice the tails on the candles are getting longer which can be a early warning sign.

Back to the 4hr. I see a huge double top forming. If this breaks we could see 1.2996 = 300 plus pips.

[Paulo1]

Paulo1, on 2009-05-04 21:23:01, said:

Paulo1, on 2009-05-04 19:27:23, said:

Paulo1, on 2009-05-04 18:11:18, said:

Paulo1, on 2009-05-03 18:58:37, said:

Additional Explanation on the EUR/USD

Charts added.

OK. IF YOU FOLLOW THE PLAN AND STRATEGY YOU SHOULD NOW HAVE 80 PIPS ATLEAST IN THE BANK.

I entered at 1.3327 and my stop was @ 1.3358. My stop is now 1.3331, Very strong resistance at 1.3329 My target maybe a little ambitous at 1.3273, TARGET HIT ON NUMBER 1 POSITION. 2ND TARGET HIT AT 1.3250 STOP NOW AT 1.3265, 1 POSITION OPEN.

stop moved to 1.3242 plus 120 pips





Out 134 pip profit.

Entered Long at 1.3239 stop 1.3224 stop now move to 1.3317 = 78 pips in the bank.

Long entry is now back to this mornings trade. bumping of the major trendline again.

Strategy remains the same as one posted yesterday3/5/09

Maybe running out of steam , notice the tails on the candles are getting longer which can be a early warning sign.

Back to the 4hr. I see a huge double top forming. If this breaks we could see 1.2996 = 300 plus pips.

Well to date 6/5/2009. I have made several other posts, however they have not been posted here. So my guess is that I am not aloud to post the advice I have been giving. (if thats the case, Moderators, let me know) or otherwise, they got lost in cyber space.

Presently sitting on 427ish pips this week.profit.

As my analysis predicted eur/usd has acted as thought. We have now come back the 1.3300 level which is of major importance.

New level to watch for entries  1.3402 look to short with a 10 to 20 pip stop. if has strong movement to the upside and holds look for a long entry and use the 1.3402 has support.

if breaks to the downside watch level 1.3250 and trend line breach, you should see a move of about 80 pips and a break of 1.3150 you can add another 80 to that.

[myfriendu]

paulo where do you see euro/usd trend,im short bias but thing has been ranging all week

[Paulo1]

myfriendu, on 2009-05-07 19:31:02, said:

paulo where do you see euro/usd trend,im short bias but thing has been ranging all week

May 11-15, the pair is approaching key resistance around 1.3750, which represents an important prior support/resistance level as well as the last major swing high. A breakout above that level would represent a significant confirmation of a new uptrend, and should target immediate further resistance in the 1.3900 price region. As the launching pad for the current bullishness, the 1.3300 price region should provide strong support for the pair going forward.

Also an looking for short entries around these levels

1.3684 and 1.3584

[alfa156]

ukme, on 2009-05-03 11:29:01, said:

I would love to learn to trade/make a living online somehow. Even if I just could earn enough to cover my bills here in the UK - Say 1500 GBP per month. I have a few K GBP in savings/potential capital. I'm under so much stress/strain in my current job at the moment I've burnt out, on the verge of a breakdown even.

Seriously need a less stressful way to earn a living. Anybody prepared to teach a fellow how to trade online?

im in the proces of learning my self and i must say its not that easy and it takes some practice and skill before you can quit the dayjob and sit under a palmtree and in thailand and do your trading
but i have found a lot of help here babypips.com they have a forex school and and forum full og helpfull people and the best thing is that it is all for free
good luck

[jesimps]

Paulo:   Appreciate your sensible analysis of the EU.

Alfa:  Agree, Babypips is a great site for newbies.


Anyone having trouble with the FXCM trading platform because of dodgy internet connection, recommend you download the Java platform. I had loads of probs recently with the normal one until FXCM suggested going to Java. I've used it for a week now and it's been rolid as a sock.

Cheers

[Paulo1]

alfa156, on 2009-05-10 20:11:44, said:

ukme, on 2009-05-03 11:29:01, said:

I would love to learn to trade/make a living online somehow. Even if I just could earn enough to cover my bills here in the UK - Say 1500 GBP per month. I have a few K GBP in savings/potential capital. I'm under so much stress/strain in my current job at the moment I've burnt out, on the verge of a breakdown even.

Seriously need a less stressful way to earn a living. Anybody prepared to teach a fellow how to trade online?

im in the proces of learning my self and i must say its not that easy and it takes some practice and skill before you can quit the dayjob and sit under a palmtree and in thailand and do your trading
but i have found a lot of help here babypips.com they have a forex school and and forum full og helpfull people and the best thing is that it is all for free
good luck

Babypips is a great site. Beware of the thousands of scammers out there. Most of the education you can get for free. I suggest you look at Steve Nison,s Candles also. A little pricey, but worth the money. spend time learning how to draw trendlines correctly also. So many people draw them , but not correct.

I have been teaching four Traders over the past 18months. They are now averaging about 400 pips per week. The goal is to get them over 100 per day, which is the instititional standard for  traders. If you can attain that level you will get a job anywhere if you wish.

EUR/USD is presently hitting trendline resistance at 1.3665. I am going to give it time to show me the direction. Beware the euro and usd sessions are not open yet for this weeks trading.