George Friedmans book 'The Next 100 Years' which gives some very thought provoking predictions for the 21st century identifies the decline in population as being the single most important factor. It also points out how people overemphasise situations in the present.
Well worth a read as it makes some pretty bold assertions and backs them up with good analysis.
George Friedmans book 'The Next 100 Years' which gives some very thought provoking predictions for the 21st century identifies the decline in population as being the single most important factor. It also points out how people overemphasise situations in the present.
Well worth a read as it makes some pretty bold assertions and backs them up with good analysis.
how is possible to overemphasise a genuine concern by some
that people are getting away with the same degree of financial fraud and
criminal activity today as they were in 2008 without any
retribution? No overemphasis just a simple question how and why
can this still be happening ?
in these 2 PBS videos they even say they know exactly where the
MF Global money is and yet nothing happens ?? Frontline On MF Global's Six Billion Dollar Bet
George Friedmans book 'The Next 100 Years' which gives some very thought provoking predictions for the 21st century identifies the decline in population as being the single most important factor. It also points out how people overemphasise situations in the present.
Well worth a read as it makes some pretty bold assertions and backs them up with good analysis.
how is possible to overemphasise a genuine concern by some
that people are getting away with the same degree of financial fraud and
criminal activity today as they were in 2008 without any
retribution? No overemphasis just a simple question how and why
can this still be happening ?
in these 2 PBS videos they even say they know exactly where the
MF Global money is and yet nothing happens ?? Frontline On MF Global's Six Billion Dollar Bet
Since it was written back in 2009 he was not refering to the specific situation we are in today but more a generalised feeling that things appear worse than they actually are at the time and consequently there is a tendancy to overreact though his prediction is for a major crisis for the US around 2030 based on a 50 year cycle - the last being in early 80's where there was inflation over 10 per cent, interest rates at 19-20 per cent and 10 per cent unemployment.
I can see some truth in his arguments if you look back at previous problems that, in hindsight, were not as bad as it seemed at the time. By rights I should already dead from AIDs, SARs or Bird Flu, the world would have run out of oil, we would be in a new ice age/desert/underwater and just recovering from the dark ages when everything stopped working due to the millenium bug.
George Friedmans book 'The Next 100 Years' which gives some very thought provoking predictions for the 21st century identifies the decline in population as being the single most important factor. It also points out how people overemphasise situations in the present.
Well worth a read as it makes some pretty bold assertions and backs them up with good analysis.
how is possible to overemphasise a genuine concern by some
that people are getting away with the same degree of financial fraud and
criminal activity today as they were in 2008 without any
retribution? No overemphasis just a simple question how and why
can this still be happening ?
in these 2 PBS videos they even say they know exactly where the
MF Global money is and yet nothing happens ?? Frontline On MF Global's Six Billion Dollar Bet
Since it was written back in 2009 he was not refering to the specific situation we are in today but more a generalised feeling that things appear worse than they actually are at the time and consequently there is a tendancy to overreact though his prediction is for a major crisis for the US around 2030 based on a 50 year cycle - the last being in early 80's where there was inflation over 10 per cent, interest rates at 19-20 per cent and 10 per cent unemployment.
I can see some truth in his arguments if you look back at previous problems that, in hindsight, were not as bad as it seemed at the time. By rights I should already dead from AIDs, SARs or Bird Flu, the world would have run out of oil, we would be in a new ice age/desert/underwater and just recovering from the dark ages when everything stopped working due to the millenium bug.
personally speaking after reading some of the reviews about this book
I agree with those that thought trying to predict what will happen over 100 years is too ambitious.
I believe Gerald Celente does a better job because he extrapolates from what
is happening right now and his predictions are more relevant
and less idealistic
He (a policeman) also said that these (fake) banknotes will damage the local economy.
I wonder if that is indeed the case? The guy simply does not understand economics.
Now, if you gauge the health of the economy by the amount of goods and services that are being sold, then by injecting a bit of extra cash into the local economy it would give a boost as, there will be a little more money sloshing around. Provided the counterfeiters don't go overboard, they could even grow the local economy into a boom, as with the extra cash more infrastructure would be built, more people would gain employment.
The problem would be if they pushed too much too quickly, causing the rate of increase of demand to exceed the rate of increase of production leading to inflation.
I think that a healthy dose of perfectly made THB1000 would increase the wealth of the local economy. In much the same way that by sending real THB 1000 from Pattaya to Nackonelsewhere the economy of Nackonelsewhere is given a boost.
So, who are the losers in this?
1. the Treasury, as it loses the seigniorage from printing the notes, but that is not a significant source of income, as when the old banknotes are taken out of circulation that money is refunded to the commercial banks.
2. the commercial banks, as the money comes directly into circulation without putting someone into debt and paying interest.
So, (hope I'm not going to be banned for this )
The counterfeiters should carry on, as the main losers are the bloody commercial banks
And, if you don't believe me, here is an interesting factlet.
Only about 3% of the money in the western economies has been issued by the government. All the rest has been created by, and for the profit of, the bloody commercial banks through lending it into existence.
Take the Greeks. Once the banks take it into their heads to withdraw funding, they can send an entire country in massive depression. What Greece needs now is a print of EUR 100 counterfeit notes and passed into the economy, putting cash into the hands of the jobless and destitute, so they can once again buy stuff, and even pay off the bankers.
I think because while many talk about a future world currency it is in fact long been a reality thru Central Banking.
They all realize the contagion possibility.
Who better than the wizards of printing to help create more illusion of repair
So a fund will be set up to guarantee the cash deposits of tax payers from funds backed by those same tax payers ..
Money out of thin air comes to mind , or printing or qe ..easing
Quote
the Sunday Times reported, without saying where it got the information.
sources familiar with EU internal politics revealed on a boring sunday that yada yada yakety-yak the European Union considers yada yada bla-bla-bla enabling Churchill to add his personal comments.... out of thin air
It will be a fascinating next three weeks. My money is on Angela Merkel holding her nerve. Whether Hollande will is another matter.
without Merkel anything concerning EU debt/finances is a stillborn baby. but somehow i have the feeling that she might cave in even though politically she is between a rock and a hard place, not to forget the federal elections next year.
So a fund will be set up to guarantee the cash deposits of tax payers from funds backed by those same tax payers ..
Money out of thin air comes to mind , or printing or qe ..easing
Quote
the Sunday Times reported, without saying where it got the information.
sources familiar with EU internal politics revealed on a boring sunday that yada yada yakety-yak the European Union considers yada yada bla-bla-bla enabling Churchill to add his personal comments.... out of thin air
If I now feel this way, then, once the immensity of what is about to hit the UK in particular, including all the 1,000,000 ex pat pensioners and their families, where will it lead to? The Icelandic government is besieged, in Greece there have been riots. The Brits can take a lot, but once they get riled then the fighting becomes very bitter.
Do you really think that the people have kept their sense, and ability to revolt ? Good for you, it leaves some hope. As for myself, I don't.
General De Gaulle was right. Speaking about the french people he says : "The french are... veals". I know, not very nice, but so true.
People are passive, with a liquefied brain.
Panem et circenses.
Why they made a revolution in 1789 ? Because no bread... But today ? Even with a very deep crisis, they will keep their pint of beer, some KFC or McDonald, and some TV show or football matches... Largely enough to keep them quiet.
I totally agree. Modern day "slavery" (ie debt) is too numbing, and gives people the illusion that one day it will all be ok, if they just keep working hard. It is almost worse than actual slavery in a way -- at least when there were slaves there was something to inspire a revolution. What would the average joe rather do, turn on his credit bought 42 inch plasma and watch kim kardashian's ass bounce around with a coors light in his hand, or start a revolution. The answer to that is evident, and will be for quite some time.
per se, debt is not a problem and certainly not slavery. Debt actually liberates business opportunity. Without debt any economy would struggle. Also a necessary part of raising debt is risk and risk assessment. The idea of the elimination of debt and risk being achievable or even desirable is a nonsense.
It will be a fascinating next three weeks. My money is on Angela Merkel holding her nerve. Whether Hollande will is another matter.
without Merkel anything concerning EU debt/finances is a stillborn baby. but somehow i have the feeling that she might cave in even though politically she is between a rock and a hard place, not to forget the federal elections next year.
That's what I think too. I'm glad I don't have any money directly riding on it though.
per se, debt is not a problem and certainly not slavery. Debt actually liberates business opportunity. Without debt any economy would struggle. Also a necessary part of raising debt is risk and risk assessment. The idea of the elimination of debt and risk being achievable or even desirable is a nonsense.
yes but how about even just a clue on how its paid back.... just a clue ????
over to you financial Wizard
The insurance market Lloyd's of London is preparing contingency plans for the possibility of the euro collapsing, its chief executive has said.
With Greece facing new elections in June and anti-bailout feelings high, there are fears Athens may be forced to exit the eurozone.Mr Ward is one of the first bosses of a large UK business to admit he is planning for the end of the euro.
If I now feel this way, then, once the immensity of what is about to hit the UK in particular, including all the 1,000,000 ex pat pensioners and their families, where will it lead to? The Icelandic government is besieged, in Greece there have been riots. The Brits can take a lot, but once they get riled then the fighting becomes very bitter.
Do you really think that the people have kept their sense, and ability to revolt ? Good for you, it leaves some hope. As for myself, I don't.
General De Gaulle was right. Speaking about the french people he says : "The french are... veals". I know, not very nice, but so true.
People are passive, with a liquefied brain.
Panem et circenses.
Why they made a revolution in 1789 ? Because no bread... But today ? Even with a very deep crisis, they will keep their pint of beer, some KFC or McDonald, and some TV show or football matches... Largely enough to keep them quiet.
I totally agree. Modern day "slavery" (ie debt) is too numbing, and gives people the illusion that one day it will all be ok, if they just keep working hard. It is almost worse than actual slavery in a way -- at least when there were slaves there was something to inspire a revolution. What would the average joe rather do, turn on his credit bought 42 inch plasma and watch kim kardashian's ass bounce around with a coors light in his hand, or start a revolution. The answer to that is evident, and will be for quite some time.
Blimey, that's a blast from the past. When did I post that? 25 January 2009. This HAS been going on a long time.
The "numbing debt" feeling and "what can I do?", coupled with the "heads down and grind off the nose" works OK as long as you can still put food on the table, a coors in the hand and turn on the 42"er.
The Greeks are finding that they can't.
The Icelanders in fact seem to have emerged from their mess OK. They killed the banks and started again.
But I've more or less resigned myself to accepting that as long as the UK peeps have TV's , football, reality dross, and can afford to get pissed out of their brains every night, there will be no revolution.
per se, debt is not a problem and certainly not slavery. Debt actually liberates business opportunity. Without debt any economy would struggle. Also a necessary part of raising debt is risk and risk assessment. The idea of the elimination of debt and risk being achievable or even desirable is a nonsense.
yes but how about even just a clue on how its paid back.... just a clue ????
over to you financial Wizard
For individuals, many of us at some time in our life take on a housing mortgage, something with an element of risk which we pay off with our career incomes over quite long periods of time. For a buiness it is important to raise capital in order to say purchase capital equipment for developing that business. States raise money for a whole range of activities. On a daily basis, most of us borrow money when we use a credit card. I would guess that every airline on the planet borrows money in one form or another to purchase or lease aircraft. Debt oils the system. Maybe you would like to return to pre-capitalist economic formations.
per se, debt is not a problem and certainly not slavery. Debt actually liberates business opportunity. Without debt any economy would struggle. Also a necessary part of raising debt is risk and risk assessment. The idea of the elimination of debt and risk being achievable or even desirable is a nonsense.
yes but how about even just a clue on how its paid back.... just a clue ????
over to you financial Wizard
For individuals, many of us at some time in our life take on a housing mortgage, something with an element of risk which we pay off with our career incomes over quite long periods of time. For a buiness it is important to raise capital in order to say purchase capital equipment for developing that business. States raise money for a whole range of activities. On a daily basis, most of us borrow money when we use a credit card. I would guess that every airline on the planet borrows money in one form or another to purchase or lease aircraft. Debt oils the system. Maybe you would like to return to pre-capitalist economic formations.
The insurance market Lloyd's of London is preparing contingency plans for the possibility of the euro collapsing, its chief executive has said.
With Greece facing new elections in June and anti-bailout feelings high, there are fears Athens may be forced to exit the eurozone.Mr Ward is one of the first bosses of a large UK business to admit he is planning for the end of the euro.
On one level it is important that the mood music coming out of the EU ratchets up and increases pressure on Greece that their vote means potential exit. Raising the heat is positive.
The insurance market Lloyd's of London is preparing contingency plans for the possibility of the euro collapsing, its chief executive has said.
With Greece facing new elections in June and anti-bailout feelings high, there are fears Athens may be forced to exit the eurozone.Mr Ward is one of the first bosses of a large UK business to admit he is planning for the end of the euro.
On one level it is important that the mood music coming out of the EU ratchets up and increases pressure on Greece that their vote means potential exit. Raising the heat is positive.
Greece also ratchets up
" Greece’s public finances could collapse as early as next month, leaving salaries and pensions unpaid unless a stable government emerges from the June 17 election, according to Lucas Papademos, the technocrat prime minister who left office after this month’s inconclusive vote.
Mr Papademos warned that conditions were deteriorating faster than expected with cash flow likely to turn negative in early June amid a sharp fall in tax revenues and a loosening of spending controls during two back-to-back election campaigns.
Mounting anxiety that Greece is headed for further political instability and a possible exit from the euro has prompted many Greeks to postpone making tax payments, and has also accelerated outflows of deposits from local banks.
Athens bankers estimate that more than €3bn of cash withdrawn since the May 6 election has been stashed in safe-deposit boxes and under mattresses in case the country is forced to readopt the drachma."
"GRexit" = hopefully soon! rather an end with terror than terror without an end. ah sez "let them go down the drain and default on their recently restructured debt!" even though all of us with substantial assets will face considerable [book]losses due to global paranoia and risk aversion.
13
12DrinkMore, on 2012-05-23 20:56:39, said:
