146 replies to this topic
Posted 2009-02-20 15:03:42
 thaihome, on 2009-02-20 09:28:28, said:
The average Thai worker is employed in a factory, construction, or agriculture. So far the slowdown has impacted several thousand factory workers that have been laid off due to weakening demand for exported manufactured goods. The strong baht is not the the problem with slowing exports, it is the worldwide slowdown. When the baht was in the lower 30's in 2007 and early 2008, imports continued to grow, it was only when the world fell off a cliff in the 4Q of 2008 that export tumbled.
TH
Sorry, but there were a reported half-million factory jobs lost, in the 4th Qtr of last year, not just several thousand. Which rather changes the overall picture. 
Posted 2009-02-20 15:35:32
highchol, on 2009-02-20 14:25:43, said: 12DrinkMore, on 2009-02-20 13:57:37, said: Devaluation, you want devaluation?
http://thaicrisis.wo...com/indicators/
There you go, 17% devalued against the USD in one year. How much more do you want?
Now if we're talking about the EUR or the GBP, then maybe instead of looking to the Thai government to help you out, maybe you should go and talk to YOUR government about zero interest rate policies, printing money and massive and ineffective bailouts.
sorry if i may appear to be a bit of a pedant but:-
Siam comm bank T/T rates for today and one year ago are 35.57 & 32.42 respectively
which in my book is only 9.7% weaker!
www.xe.com quotes 29.6370205313 and 35.6965000950 for the same period.
Possibly some confusion about the onshore/offshore rates which have now converged.
But 10% is 10% 
Wonder how much people want to see?
Posted 2009-02-20 15:39:25
Ricardo, on 2009-02-20 15:03:42, said: Sorry, but there were a reported half-million factory jobs lost, in the 4th Qtr of last year, not just several thousand. Which rather changes the overall picture.
Where did that information come from?
500,000 jobs lost in three months?
Give us a link.
Posted 2009-02-20 16:35:32
12DrinkMore, on 2009-02-20 15:35:32, said: highchol, on 2009-02-20 14:25:43, said: 12DrinkMore, on 2009-02-20 13:57:37, said: Devaluation, you want devaluation?
http://thaicrisis.wo...com/indicators/
There you go, 17% devalued against the USD in one year. How much more do you want?
Now if we're talking about the EUR or the GBP, then maybe instead of looking to the Thai government to help you out, maybe you should go and talk to YOUR government about zero interest rate policies, printing money and massive and ineffective bailouts.
sorry if i may appear to be a bit of a pedant but:-
Siam comm bank T/T rates for today and one year ago are 35.57 & 32.42 respectively
which in my book is only 9.7% weaker!
www.xe.com quotes 29.6370205313 and 35.6965000950 for the same period.
Possibly some confusion about the onshore/offshore rates which have now converged.
But 10% is 10%
Wonder how much people want to see?
Fair do's on the on/offshore bit.
From a personal point of veiw I along with many expats would like to see a further weakening, forgetting any personal benefits I fall into the camp that thinks a weaker currency would also benefit the majority of Thais.
Posted 2009-02-20 19:16:31
THB is not falling, just the opposite, it is rising like crazy against most of the world currencies, which ahve depreciated between 15% and 100% against the USD in the past months.
THB is now about the same (slightly stronger indeed) compared to the USD than it was on December 1st, whilst other asian currencies are falling like stones.
Not suprise that:
http://www.bangkokpo...26-5-in-january
January exports fell 26%, this is just the antipasto, Thai ecomomy is set to crush in a terrible way and Tarisa and her crazy policy to keep the Baht amongst the strongest currencies in the world will be one of the culprit.
In these days THB is losing ground against the USD but it is rising against the other asian currencies -which are falling much sharply vs the USD
That means THB is losing competitivness more and more....just the opposite of what it needs right now.
Dozens of thousands of future jobless Thais will have to "thank" Miss tarisa.
Edited by jdrake72, 2009-02-20 19:17:33.
Posted 2009-02-20 19:57:13
jdrake72, on 2009-02-20 19:16:31, said: THB is not falling, just the opposite, it is rising like crazy against most of the world currencies, which ahve depreciated between 15% and 100% against the USD in the past months.
THB is now about the same (slightly stronger indeed) compared to the USD than it was on December 1st, whilst other asian currencies are falling like stones.
Not suprise that:
http://www.bangkokpo...26-5-in-january
January exports fell 26%, this is just the antipasto, Thai ecomomy is set to crush in a terrible way and Tarisa and her crazy policy to keep the Baht amongst the strongest currencies in the world will be one of the culprit.
In these days THB is losing ground against the USD but it is rising against the other asian currencies -which are falling much sharply vs the USD
That means THB is losing competitivness more and more....just the opposite of what it needs right now.
Dozens of thousands of future jobless Thais will have to "thank" Miss tarisa.
I've just looked at http://www.x-rates.com/ and taken the 120 day history
So the THB against
HKD Lost 3%
CNY Lost 2%
MYR Gained 2%
SGD Gained 2%
TWD Gained 5%
more or less even Stevens, as a couple of percent fluctuation is normal
Then the THB marked gains against
INR Gained 8%
IDR Gained 70% (no idea what happened there, maybe time to take a holiday in Bali)
KRW Gained 30%
But against the Japanese
JPY Lost 20%
The THB and other Asian currencies in the first group seem to be tracking the USD, with small fluctuations.
Quote "it is rising like crazy against most of the world currencies, which ahve depreciated between 15% and 100% against the USD in the past months."
Presumably you are mainly considering all the other Western currencies that personally affect you, which have fallen substantially against the USD.
Personally I would go with Tarisa's statement saying that the THB is not way out of line with the other Asian currencies, and not your "rising like crazy against most of the world currencies" blanket opinion.
Thank god we have a level headed woman running the Thai economy, otherwise the wildly gyrating testosterone powered Western males such as Brown, Darling, Greenspan, Bush etc would screw it up here as well.
Edited by 12DrinkMore, 2009-02-20 20:05:31.
Posted 2009-02-20 20:13:30
And here's some GOOD news for once
http://timesbusiness...n-cheapest.html
So Thailand is right up there as the third cheapest to take your holiday!
Posted 2009-02-20 20:21:12
But Pound 45 to the THB? Are they expecting something?
Posted 2009-02-20 20:25:18
There's no point arguing against the fantasists. Ok you're right it isn't happening. The bt is worth every cent penny and peso of it's valuation. Also Thailand has only lost a few thousand jobs. And exports didn't decrease 24% in Jan. And Thais aren't really struggling. And anyway they will all go back to their parent's farms and grow rice and have a great disease free life. And, Oh hel_l, let's just close the thread- it's been ruined.
Posted 2009-02-20 20:48:52
mommysboy, on 2009-02-20 20:25:18, said: There's no point arguing against the fantasists. Ok you're right it isn't happening. The bt is worth every cent penny and peso of it's valuation. Also Thailand has only lost a few thousand jobs. And exports didn't decrease 24% in Jan. And Thais aren't really struggling. And anyway they will all go back to their parent's farms and grow rice and have a great disease free life. And, Oh hel_l, let's just close the thread- it's been ruined.
Have to define the fantasists first.
Is it those who hope for a GBP worth 72 THB with no reasoning to back it up?
Or is it those, presumably me included, who are trying to work out what is happening through a fair amount of effort, and trying to put it into a perspective so that we can protect what he have?
But back to your post.
Yes, Thailand has lost thousands of jobs. And exports did decrease 24% in January. And the Thais will struggle. And if they go back to live healthy lives on the farm, at least they will all have food, because going to work on the farm is still a possibility for them.
But put that into the big picture and compare it to what is happening in Europe and the States, where it is far far worse with very bleak forecasts for the next decade. The last eight months have been the scariest of my life. And I can see that the next couple of years are going to be even scarier. There will be a lot of dreams shattered and destroyed. But living on a farm in Isaan raising chickens, pigs, ducks and growing rice with my partner sounds a hel_l of a lot better and more interesting than living on a UK national pension of 20,000/month in the cold winters over there, and the only occupation being to stand in queue of the unemployable.
Posted 2009-02-21 05:07:50
Posted 2009-02-21 05:14:39
Another thing to remember that Thai news has a tendency to ........ be upbeat about things when other countries news agencies prefer to hype any and all bad news to sell more copy.
There appears to be a blanket refusal to report much of anything that is bad at the moment. Anything that can be against the Government is tamed and reduced to the least offensive wording it can find.
This would mean that anyone talking down the economy had better be a very very brave man.
In the UK a Headline that reads
'Catastrophic crash as the economy goes into melt down!!!!!!!!!!!!!....... Is this the end of the world????????????'
Would read more like
'Exports figures suggest a slight lessening of orders may possibly be due in Thailand if things go really really badly'
were the same story to be printed in Thailand.
In reality it should probably look more like.
'Economy outlook bleak for the short term but will probably be OK over a couple of years. '
Edited by Merangue, 2009-02-21 05:16:00.
Posted 2009-02-21 06:03:17
jdrake72, on 2009-02-20 19:16:31, said: THB is not falling, just the opposite, it is rising like crazy against most of the world currencies, which ahve depreciated between 15% and 100% against the USD in the past months.
THB is now about the same (slightly stronger indeed) compared to the USD than it was on December 1st, whilst other asian currencies are falling like stones.
Not suprise that:
http://www.bangkokpo...26-5-in-january
January exports fell 26%, this is just the antipasto, Thai ecomomy is set to crush in a terrible way and Tarisa and her crazy policy to keep the Baht amongst the strongest currencies in the world will be one of the culprit.
In these days THB is losing ground against the USD but it is rising against the other asian currencies -which are falling much sharply vs the USD
That means THB is losing competitivness more and more....just the opposite of what it needs right now.
Dozens of thousands of future jobless Thais will have to "thank" Miss tarisa.
Ms. Tarisa begs to differ and has in my view valid points. she claims that the drop in exports is not caused by the strong Baht but by the global economic situation. checking a dozen other countries (even industrialised ones) backs up her claim.
but looking at her explanation and opinions one has to take into consideration that she is only a rather uneducated Thai lady who -by sheer coincidence- was appointed Governor of the Bank of Thailand. what does she know about economy, globalisation, domestic inflation, currencies and handling reserves? isn't it time that she reads in Thaivisa the valuable advice of those who are educated, possess extensive knowledge how to run a Central Bank and steer a country's economy? i mean what's her stopping to ask us retired Brits, American, Germans, Aussies and Kiwis for clear instructions how to run her business? i can only shake my head about Ms. Tarisa being that stubborn!
Posted 2009-02-21 08:35:13
Merangue, on 2009-02-21 05:07:50, said:
Thanks for the links. But I was looking for Ricardo to justify his statement
Ricardo, on 2009-02-20 15:03:42, said: Sorry, but there were a reported half-million factory jobs lost, in the 4th Qtr of last year, not just several thousand. Which rather changes the overall picture.
Posted 2009-02-21 08:40:08
Naam, on 2009-02-21 06:03:17, said: but looking at her explanation and opinions one has to take into consideration that she is only a rather uneducated Thai lady who -by sheer coincidence- was appointed Governor of the Bank of Thailand. what does she know about economy, globalisation, domestic inflation, currencies and handling reserves? isn't it time that she reads in Thaivisa the valuable advice of those who are educated, possess extensive knowledge how to run a Central Bank and steer a country's economy? i mean what's her stopping to ask us retired Brits, American, Germans, Aussies and Kiwis for clear instructions how to run her business? i can only shake my head about Ms. Tarisa being that stubborn!
But in the case of Brown, Darling, Bush, Greenspan etc. I am sure that we would no way near as deep in the shite if they had taken the trouble to read carefully through this forum and take on board some of the comments made here.............
Posted 2009-02-21 09:11:38
BygonKeaw, on 2009-02-18 22:15:04, said: Maigo6, on 2009-02-18 20:38:32, said: Maybe the Thais should have been as stupid as the idiots in the west and bankrupted the country.
And I'm sure the OP is really concerned about the welfare of the Thai people, nothing to do with his own currency being total crap.
Why can't the west be more like Thaialnd, they may also have a strong currency....lol 
Your right maigo6
BUT
me myself would love it if the baht weaken back to 70 against the pound. Not gonna happen but im hoping. Got a family to look after.
Ps its spelt thailand not thaialand!!!
P.P.S. He didn't spell it Thaialand, he spelt it Thaialnd.
Time for Thaivisa to include...oh, wait, there is a spellchecker built in!
Posted 2009-02-21 10:42:34
jdrake72, on 2009-02-20 19:16:31, said: THB is not falling, just the opposite, it is rising like crazy against most of the world currencies, which ahve depreciated between 15% and 100% against the USD in the past months.
THB is now about the same (slightly stronger indeed) compared to the USD than it was on December 1st, whilst other asian currencies are falling like stones.
Not suprise that:
http://www.bangkokpo...26-5-in-january
January exports fell 26%, this is just the antipasto, Thai ecomomy is set to crush in a terrible way and Tarisa and her crazy policy to keep the Baht amongst the strongest currencies in the world will be one of the culprit.
In these days THB is losing ground against the USD but it is rising against the other asian currencies -which are falling much sharply vs the USD
That means THB is losing competitivness more and more....just the opposite of what it needs right now.
Dozens of thousands of future jobless Thais will have to "thank" Miss tarisa.
That's a very entertaining post, the information in it is mostly all incorrect but it is a funny post nevertheless.
Posted 2009-02-21 10:46:47
12DrinkMore, on 2009-02-20 19:57:13, said: jdrake72, on 2009-02-20 19:16:31, said: THB is not falling, just the opposite, it is rising like crazy against most of the world currencies, which ahve depreciated between 15% and 100% against the USD in the past months.
THB is now about the same (slightly stronger indeed) compared to the USD than it was on December 1st, whilst other asian currencies are falling like stones.
Not suprise that:
http://www.bangkokpo...26-5-in-january
January exports fell 26%, this is just the antipasto, Thai ecomomy is set to crush in a terrible way and Tarisa and her crazy policy to keep the Baht amongst the strongest currencies in the world will be one of the culprit.
In these days THB is losing ground against the USD but it is rising against the other asian currencies -which are falling much sharply vs the USD
That means THB is losing competitivness more and more....just the opposite of what it needs right now.
Dozens of thousands of future jobless Thais will have to "thank" Miss tarisa.
I've just looked at http://www.x-rates.com/ and taken the 120 day history
So the THB against
HKD Lost 3%
CNY Lost 2%
MYR Gained 2%
SGD Gained 2%
TWD Gained 5%
more or less even Stevens, as a couple of percent fluctuation is normal
Then the THB marked gains against
INR Gained 8%
IDR Gained 70% (no idea what happened there, maybe time to take a holiday in Bali)
KRW Gained 30%
But against the Japanese
JPY Lost 20%
The THB and other Asian currencies in the first group seem to be tracking the USD, with small fluctuations.
Quote "it is rising like crazy against most of the world currencies, which ahve depreciated between 15% and 100% against the USD in the past months."
Presumably you are mainly considering all the other Western currencies that personally affect you, which have fallen substantially against the USD.
Personally I would go with Tarisa's statement saying that the THB is not way out of line with the other Asian currencies, and not your "rising like crazy against most of the world currencies" blanket opinion.
Thank god we have a level headed woman running the Thai economy, otherwise the wildly gyrating testosterone powered Western males such as Brown, Darling, Greenspan, Bush etc would screw it up here as well.
Against the basket of twenty regional currencies that it is measured against (by the BOT), the Baht remains right in the middle.
Posted 2009-02-22 05:33:14
chiang mai, on 2009-02-21 10:46:47, said: Against the basket of twenty regional currencies that it is measured against (by the BOT), the Baht remains right in the middle.
Surely the significant fact, when discussing the Baht Vs other currencies, is that over 80% (YES 80%!) of Thailand's export trade is conveyed in US dollars. The position of the Thai Baht Vs U$D must carry a bit of weight in decision making - whichever crazy way the BoT decisions are made.
Posted 2009-02-22 07:29:00
It is starting to become obvious in what direction the Thai Baht is moving:
Posted 2009-02-22 08:25:51
sorensen, on 2009-02-22 07:29:00, said: It is starting to become obvious in what direction the Thai Baht is moving:
your graph shows Baht vs. one currency Sorensen and that distorts the picture. moreover the graph provides an optically misleading picture which at first sight indicates strength vs. USD (for the layman).
Posted 2009-02-22 12:04:29
Marvo, on 2009-02-22 05:33:14, said: chiang mai, on 2009-02-21 10:46:47, said: Against the basket of twenty regional currencies that it is measured against (by the BOT), the Baht remains right in the middle.
Surely the significant fact, when discussing the Baht Vs other currencies, is that over 80% (YES 80%!) of Thailand's export trade is conveyed in US dollars. The position of the Thai Baht Vs U$D must carry a bit of weight in decision making - whichever crazy way the BoT decisions are made.
Just as important is the fact that the largest import, oil, is in USD, and a weakening baht against the USD causes fuel cost in Thailand to increase. And make no mistake, every part of the economy runs on diesel fuel. Recall last summer when fuel prices went through the roof and the government tried to subsidize diesel, it almost broke them.
I think the Baht is just about were it needs to be (against the USD) and it should continue its gradual weakening against the USD over the rest of the year, assuming oil cost stays at current levels. What it does against other western currencies doesn’t matter.
TH
Posted 2009-02-22 12:13:20
Naam, on 2009-02-22 08:25:51, said: sorensen, on 2009-02-22 07:29:00, said: It is starting to become obvious in what direction the Thai Baht is moving:
your graph shows Baht vs. one currency Sorensen and that distorts the picture. moreover the graph provides an optically misleading picture which at first sight indicates strength vs. USD (for the layman).
I think it is appropriate to only show against the USD as it is really the only one that matters to Thailand. But it might be good to show also the USD index, which I understand show the relative strength/weakness of the dollar against a basket of major currencies. I don’t have that data. Maybe someone else could try.
Anyway, here is the THB/USD graph with reverse values so the weakening goes down.
TH
Posted 2009-02-22 20:02:05
http://www.bloomberg...6...&refer=home
Quote Feb. 22 (Bloomberg) -- Japan, China, South Korea and 10 Southeast Asian nations agreed to form a $120 billion pool of foreign-exchange reserves that can be used by countries to defend their currencies amid the deepening global recession.
Looks like the Asians are preparing themselves against any fallout from the Western banking mess.
Quote In the years since, Japan, China and South Korea together with the Asean economies have amassed more than $3.6 trillion of foreign-exchange reserves, about half of the global total.
Well, that IS a different story to the Western mess.
Will any of that money be used to bail out the Westerners? No I don't think so. It will be used to bolster the Asian economy. Makes Obamah's 800 Billion of extra debt look a feeble, doesn't it?
Anybody still think that Asia is going to suffer worse than the West? And does anybody REALLY still think that your GBP will be up there at 72 Baht ever again? More like 35 in six months.
Posted 2009-02-22 23:46:05
I still think its going to be worse in Asia than the west.
I also think that you will see the GBP at 72 again, maybe not in my lifetime, but I think it will see daylight after the night.
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