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[george]

TYPE A (H1N1)
Decline in new cases, deaths
Minister cites rising awareness about the virus

BANGKOK: -- Public Health Minister Witthaya Kaewparadai said yesterday that the number of infections and deaths caused by the typeA (H1N1) virus has dropped over the past week, mostly because people were more aware of the disease and were not panicking.

A source from the ministry said yesterday that so far 10,045 people have been infected and 81 have succumbed to the virus. However, he said the ministry's deputy permanent secretary Dr Paijit Warachit will announce the official numbers at a press conference today.

Last week, the ministry said 65 had died since the disease broke out in May, and 8,879 people had been infected. He said the number of cases this week had dropped because not only were people not panicking, they were also seeking treatment immediately.

He also complimented health care volunteers, especially those in Ubon Ratchathani province, for keeping an eye out for infections.

Meanwhile, Witthaya said his ministry was still vigilant because even people with no underlying diseases had succumbed to the disease.

Deputy director of the Maharat Nakhon Ratchasima Hospital, Dr Veerasak Kaitpadungkul, said an 11yearold boy had died from the virus yesterday, bringing the total of fatalities in the province to four. The boy was admitted at hospital on August 1 with high fever and troubled breathing. Apparently, he had had a high fever for more than 15 days before he was taken in for treatment, and tested positive to the virus.

Meanwhile, Nakhon Ratchasima public health office chief, Dr Chuwit Likhityingwara, said the hospital also admitted two pregnant women with flulike symptoms, and one tested positive to the virus.

One of the women, a 16-year-old who was sixmonths pregnant, had a miscarriage and died from severe pneumonia. She did not test positive to the virus.

The second woman, an 18yearold who is also sixmonths pregnant, is in critical condition. She has been transferred to the Ramathibhodi hospital and is being treated with the antiviral zanamivir. Her unborn baby is in normal condition.

Chiang Mai public health office deputy chief, Surasing Visaruthrat, said more than 10 healthcare workers had already contracted infections either at work or at home, but all had made a full recovery.

Meanwhile, Witthaya said few clinics nationwide had agreed to dispense the antiviral drug oseltamivir because they did not want to shoulder the burden. He said he would extend the deadline for clinics to join the programme to August 17.

Director of the Government Pharmaceutical Organisation (GPO), Dr Vitthit Attavejchakul, said his agency will come up with the first dose of the liveattenuated vaccine, even though it has still not undergone animal or human trial.

The vaccine was supposed to be tested on humans this month after the National Ethic Committee had given the study its green light.


-- The Nation 2009-08-05

[Scott]

Thanks for the update.  The death rate seems to rather high.

[hansnl]

In the Netherlands, population around 16,5 million, any flu outbreak will kill around 2000 people, mostly indirectly.
This week the first death from this flu occured, 17 year old boy, already very ill from something else.

[Jowels]

Scott, on 2009-08-05 15:30:44, said:

Thanks for the update.  The death rate seems to rather high.

I was thinking the same. According to the Nation the deaths by age group on the 01-08-09 was:

Age 0-5     :     562 cases, 2 deaths
Age 6-10   :     1,208 cases, 2 deaths
Age 11-20  :    3,659 cases, 6 deaths
Age 21-30  :    1,060 cases, 14 deaths
Age 31-40  :    513 cases, 13 deaths
Age 41-50  :    364 cases, 12 deaths
Age 50-60  :    22 cases, 9 deaths

http://www.nationmul...al_30108822.php

According to my (admittedly poor) maths, that gives a mortality rate of 0.79%, against the WHO/CDC predicted rate of 0.4-0.5%

What is concerning is the mortality rate for people 31 and over. By my calculations it currently stands at 3.78%

I certainly wouldn't want to be in the 50-60 age group.

[ronz28]

Swine flu in USA is infecting those under age 24 most



but deaths in the USA are only about 353 out of an estimated million cases and the those that die are in the older age groups.




This is a very different pattern from what is seen in seasonal influenza, where an estimated 90% of influenza-related deaths occur in people 65 years of age and older.

USA CDC Website

[hansnl]

Your findings correlate with the idea in Europe that it is possible that people born before 1957 (may) have some resistance against the Mex flu.
The 1957 flu seems to be very "related" to the Mex flu.
Anyway, ideas are rising that maybe having had flu several times, any type, seems to strengthen the general resistance against flu in general
Well, I hope so, because I had the 1957 flu.

Also, up till now, the death rate for the Mex flu in Holland is very much lower as the "normal" seasonal flu.
In the Netherlands alone, any flu has a death rate of 2000-2500 people on a population of 16.5 milllion.
One death, up till now, of a very ill 17-year old male.

Edited by hansnl, 2009-08-06 19:56:49.

[Felt 35]

Decline

Quote

Call for red, yellow and green A(H1N1) zones
By John Le Fevre

BANGKOK (thaivisa.com): -- Thailand could soon be divided into red, yellow and green zones indicating the level of pandemic A(H1N1) infections in each region if a suggestion by former public health minister Sudarat Keyuraphan is acted on.

The call for the three color zones to indicate levels of infection came as Sudarat continued to receive treatment for the virus, originally termed swine flu, at Bamrungrad Hospital in Bangkok.

Sudarat said that despite taking preventative measures she still became infected with the virus, and said the Public Health Ministry (PHM) had not taken sufficient preventive measures, especially in areas outside Bangkok.

She said the country should be divided into red, yellow and green zones – for highly affected, less affected, and not affected – so that people would be able to better protect themselves from the virus.

The call for the color coding coincided with an announcement by the PHM that the rate of pandemic A(H1N1) infection in the provinces appears to be increasing.

Dr Paijit Warachit, deputy permanent secretary for public health, said farm workers and others outside the capital were among the groups health officials were most concerned about.

Thailand yesterday reported an additional 16 fatalities from pandemic A(H1N1), raising the number killed to 81, and while the PHM has stopped announcing the number of confirmed cases, a source inside the ministry said so far 10,045 people have been infected.

According to Government Pharmaceutical Organisation managing director Dr Witit Artavatkun, an estimated 30,000 people each day are going to hospitals nationwide seeking treatment.

He said production of the first batch of locally produced pandemic A(H1N1) flu vaccine at the Nakhon Pathom pilot plant will be completed by August 16, with clinical trials on humans scheduled to commence next month.