Thai property market is a bubble waiting to burst. Prices are becoming very similar to UK prices and yet the average income is 1/5 of a UK resident. Doesn't market forces and supply and demand apply in Thailand? Or are people too polite to state the obvious that most property is over priced and they are not prepared to pay it? What about the banks; don't they value property for the purpose of lending?
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Housing Prices In Thailand Expected To Rise 6-10% Next Year
Started by george, 2009-11-03 12:08
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57 replies to this topic
#27
Observant member Posted 2009-11-03 19:18:13
More BEAT UP news by the very industry people trying to profit from the market. Most Thai property up 6-10% in a single year  get real!since most prospective buyers are getting stroked royally in the next year or so. #28
Ex Member Posted 2009-11-03 19:35:16
Thai property market is a bubble waiting to burst. Prices are becoming very similar to UK prices and yet the average income is 1/5 of a UK resident. Doesn't market forces and supply and demand apply in Thailand? Or are people too polite to state the obvious that most property is over priced and they are not prepared to pay it? What about the banks; don't they value property for the purpose of lending? 
#29
Platinum Member Posted 2009-11-03 21:40:37
Either way, the production cost of houses may go up. So what? The costs could go up 1000%, but all that would mean is that no one could afford them and developers wouldn't make any money, demand and prices for older houses would go up. Eureka! You have pointed out the reason I am expecting the value of my condo units to increase 15-18% next year, and doubling in 2015. #30
Sabai Sabai Member Posted 2009-11-03 22:08:37
Either way, the production cost of houses may go up. So what? The costs could go up 1000%, but all that would mean is that no one could afford them and developers wouldn't make any money, demand and prices for older houses would go up. Eureka! You have pointed out the reason I am expecting the value of my condo units to increase 15-18% next year, and doubling in 2015. Location, location, location for condos in Bangkok. By 2015, hopefully all of the condo projects that have just started now will have sold out. I wish you luck. 
#31
Neva re-member Posted 2009-11-03 22:11:42
Either way, the production cost of houses may go up. So what? The costs could go up 1000%, but all that would mean is that no one could afford them and developers wouldn't make any money, demand and prices for older houses would go up. Eureka! You have pointed out the reason I am expecting the value of my condo units to increase 15-18% next year, and doubling in 2015. #32
Neva re-member Posted 2009-11-03 22:19:28
Either way, the production cost of houses may go up. So what? The costs could go up 1000%, but all that would mean is that no one could afford them and developers wouldn't make any money, demand and prices for older houses would go up. Eureka! You have pointed out the reason I am expecting the value of my condo units to increase 15-18% next year, and doubling in 2015. Perhaps I should of used the following tune to jolt you into reality:- #33
Observant member Posted 2009-11-03 22:46:20
Nostalgic.
Saw them in a 2,200 year old Roman arena, excellent band. There is some dreamy logic to these posts, though technically off topic. #34
Senior Member Posted 2009-11-03 23:02:46
10%??? Perhaps a dead cat bounce after a crash.
#36
Super Member Posted 2009-11-04 07:02:17
Housing prices expected to rise 6-10% next year BANGKOK: -- Housing prices are expected rise by 6-10 per cent next year in part due to reduced launches by property developers, particularly small ones, according to a bank executive. Siam Commercial Bank (SCB) executive vice president Rungrueng Sukkerdpiboon for retail lending products said interest rates are forecast to edge up and the government’s measures to stimulate the property sector through tax reductions are unlikely to be extended next year. Simultaneously, prices of construction materials have begun to increase. These factors could fuel housing prices next year. He said SCB has targeted making Bt55 billion in loans for new homes this year. In the first nine months of the year, the bank had already loaned Bt40 billion in the housing market. Mr Rungrueng said he believed non-performing loans would continue to decline as the economic slowdown had not made it difficult for customers in the housing group to service debts. NPLs in SCB’s housing loan portfolio are projected to remain below 2.5 per cent of the outstanding loans for this year. In the first nine months of 2009, NPLs stood at 2.5 per cent against 2.6-2.7 per cent at the end of the previous year, he said.  -- TNA 2009-11-03 "forecast", "unlikely", "could" "he believed" "according to a bank executive".......What great news ! .I think, maybe, could be, perhaps!! 
#37
Neva re-member Posted 2009-11-04 08:38:13
Nostalgic. Saw them in a 2,200 year old Roman arena, excellent band. There is some dreamy logic to these posts, though technically off topic. See a man with your talent recognises the secret messages I sent. I was waiting for someone to go 'off topic' comment, but personally, if you listen to the words of both songs, im right on topic 
#38
Senior Member Posted 2009-11-04 13:49:13
Housing prices expected to rise 6-10% next year BANGKOK: -- Housing prices are expected rise by 6-10 per cent next year in part due to reduced launches by property developers, particularly small ones, according to a bank executive. Siam Commercial Bank (SCB) executive vice president Rungrueng Sukkerdpiboon for retail lending products said interest rates are forecast to edge up and the government's measures to stimulate the property sector through tax reductions are unlikely to be extended next year. Simultaneously, prices of construction materials have begun to increase. These factors could fuel housing prices next year. He said SCB has targeted making Bt55 billion in loans for new homes this year. In the first nine months of the year, the bank had already loaned Bt40 billion in the housing market. Mr Rungrueng said he believed non-performing loans would continue to decline as the economic slowdown had not made it difficult for customers in the housing group to service debts. NPLs in SCB's housing loan portfolio are projected to remain below 2.5 per cent of the outstanding loans for this year. In the first nine months of 2009, NPLs stood at 2.5 per cent against 2.6-2.7 per cent at the end of the previous year, he said. -- TNA 2009-11-03 The is a typical example of irrational propaganda intended to bolster the weakening Thai estate market. Most of the article doesn't make sense at all. The unnamed "bank executive" that was quoted in this article should be demoted to sweeping floors. He obviously didn't take economics 101 in college(if he ever attended college in the first place!). He was named twice in the article. Or am I seeing things which aren't there? Mind you, I agree that he is talking rubbish. I bet he was smiling when he said it, a sure indicator that he is talking crap #39
The consensus is that I am most excellent. Posted 2009-11-04 20:30:32
By coincidence, this came out over the various wire services at approx. the same time as the post;
Efforts to boost economic recovery are having the dangerous side effect of creating new bubbles in property, stock, and currency markets, the World Bank warned yesterday. Commodity prices are also surging, with gold hitting a record price yesterday. The effect is most pronounced in Asia, where recovery has come soonest, with real estate markets in Hong Kong quickly becoming divorced from the laws of supply and demand. I suppose one could substitute Thailand for Hong Kong.............. #40
Ex Member Posted 2009-11-04 20:49:18
By coincidence, this came out over the various wire services at approx. the same time as the post; Efforts to boost economic recovery are having the dangerous side effect of creating new bubbles in property, stock, and currency markets, the World Bank warned yesterday. Commodity prices are also surging, with gold hitting a record price yesterday. The effect is most pronounced in Asia, where recovery has come soonest, with real estate markets in Hong Kong quickly becoming divorced from the laws of supply and demand. I suppose one could substitute Thailand for Hong Kong.............. 
#41
Goo bpen jai yen Posted 2009-11-05 00:18:39
Condo sales are very much manipulated. Here is something I saw of a developement. Developer builds condos and then buys all the condos. Developer then tells you that all the condos are sold but there may be a few available on the resale market (at a higher price). So the supply and demand is manipualted and you can buy a unit, if you are prepared to pay the inflated price. Of course the developer buying their own units costs nothing; just a paper transaction. And you don't know that the developer has bought them; you are just told they are all sold, since there was such a large demand. So the price must be right, and thus the inflated resale price must also be justified. Where is the honesty, decency and trust in doing business in Thailand? My word is my scam?
#42
Advanced Member Posted 2009-11-05 01:40:49
Housing prices expected to rise 6-10% next year BANGKOK: -- Housing prices are expected rise by 6-10 per cent next year in part due to reduced launches by property developers, particularly small ones, according to a bank executive. Siam Commercial Bank (SCB) executive vice president Rungrueng Sukkerdpiboon for retail lending products said interest rates are forecast to edge up and the government's measures to stimulate the property sector through tax reductions are unlikely to be extended next year. Simultaneously, prices of construction materials have begun to increase. These factors could fuel housing prices next year. He said SCB has targeted making Bt55 billion in loans for new homes this year. In the first nine months of the year, the bank had already loaned Bt40 billion in the housing market. Mr Rungrueng said he believed non-performing loans would continue to decline as the economic slowdown had not made it difficult for customers in the housing group to service debts. NPLs in SCB's housing loan portfolio are projected to remain below 2.5 per cent of the outstanding loans for this year. In the first nine months of 2009, NPLs stood at 2.5 per cent against 2.6-2.7 per cent at the end of the previous year, he said. -- TNA 2009-11-03 Don't mean to sound pessimistic...but I don't believe one iota of this. It is a PR campaign to get people buying. They can't give away houses, land or condos at the moment. A buyers market still... #43
Advanced Member Posted 2009-11-05 01:43:22
This is in keeping with the (confirmed) idea that property bubbles are forming in a number of countries throughout the region so perhaps not as silly as it seems. Optimists? Property bubbles? That sounds good. Well, maybe you should be working for GM. The bottom line is what buyers are willing to do. Where are the buyers? Thais? Foreigners? The real estate market has not yet hit bottom. I agree entirely... we haven't hit bottom yet... I've been researching it for only 1.5 years and I can see that clearly... #44
Advanced Member Posted 2009-11-05 01:48:46
Either way, the production cost of houses may go up. So what? The costs could go up 1000%, but all that would mean is that no one could afford them and developers wouldn't make any money, demand and prices for older houses would go up. Eureka! You have pointed out the reason I am expecting the value of my condo units to increase 15-18% next year, and doubling in 2015. Location, location, location for condos in Bangkok. By 2015, hopefully all of the condo projects that have just started now will have sold out. I wish you luck. How many stalled/unfinished condo units are there in bkk? I can count more than 2 hands worth from my window... #45
Advanced Member Posted 2009-11-05 01:54:54
Housing prices expected to rise 6-10% next year BANGKOK: -- Housing prices are expected rise by 6-10 per cent next year in part due to reduced launches by property developers, particularly small ones, according to a bank executive. Siam Commercial Bank (SCB) executive vice president Rungrueng Sukkerdpiboon for retail lending products said interest rates are forecast to edge up and the government's measures to stimulate the property sector through tax reductions are unlikely to be extended next year. Simultaneously, prices of construction materials have begun to increase. These factors could fuel housing prices next year. He said SCB has targeted making Bt55 billion in loans for new homes this year. In the first nine months of the year, the bank had already loaned Bt40 billion in the housing market. Mr Rungrueng said he believed non-performing loans would continue to decline as the economic slowdown had not made it difficult for customers in the housing group to service debts. NPLs in SCB's housing loan portfolio are projected to remain below 2.5 per cent of the outstanding loans for this year. In the first nine months of 2009, NPLs stood at 2.5 per cent against 2.6-2.7 per cent at the end of the previous year, he said. -- TNA 2009-11-03 The is a typical example of irrational propaganda intended to bolster the weakening Thai estate market. Most of the article doesn't make sense at all. The unnamed "bank executive" that was quoted in this article should be demoted to sweeping floors. He obviously didn't take economics 101 in college(if he ever attended college in the first place!). He was named twice in the article. Or am I seeing things which aren't there? Mind you, I agree that he is talking rubbish. I bet he was smiling when he said it, a sure indicator that he is talking crap I think this banker ought to start looking for a position on the survivor banker show. That is a fantasy show where interest rates increase, prices increase while no one is buying. The winner ends up flipping burgers at MacDonalds... #46
Platinum Member Posted 2009-11-05 06:49:46
Location, location, location for condos in Bangkok. By 2015, hopefully all of the condo projects that have just started now will have sold out. I wish you luck. You are joking? I live on Sukhumvit, Soi 24. Pretty good area. Most of the condo units here are dark all the time. A friend who is a Thai real estate agent told me many of the buildings are more than 50% empty. yet, they build more. I have to admit, I just don't understand the concept of the condo market here. #47
Sabai Sabai Member Posted 2009-11-05 08:29:19
Location, location, location for condos in Bangkok. By 2015, hopefully all of the condo projects that have just started now will have sold out. I wish you luck. You are joking? I live on Sukhumvit, Soi 24. Pretty good area. Most of the condo units here are dark all the time. A friend who is a Thai real estate agent told me many of the buildings are more than 50% empty. yet, they build more. I have to admit, I just don't understand the concept of the condo market here. Maybe I was being a little obtuse with my words. Location is everything in Bangkok if you hope to make money with a condo. And yes it will take an awfully long time for all the existing and future stock of condos to sell out. Hence, I wish him luck (an awful lot) if he expects the value of his condo to double to 2015, let alone go up 6 to 10% in the next year. The market here is very difficult to grasp since supply and demand appear not to apply and there is little transparency. Plus there are very few limitations on land use, so in essence the entire stock of land (other than national parks etc) is available for housing. This is a concept that many farangs fail to notice. This in combination with Thai's preference for buying new property (more so houses), lack of limit of future supply and possible build quality issues means that the 2nd hand market in Thailand is virtually impossible to fathom. Prime Bangkok and the islands has some liquidity in the 2nd hand market for sales, outside those areas virtually none. It isn't impossible to make money, but a good element of luck is involved and planning to make a large chunk of money in a short period of time is more luck than judgement. Flicking apartments has been popular the world over to make money, and if you get it right you can do ok. #48
Platinum Member Posted 2009-11-05 21:48:51
I must confess I was taken aback when I achieved 100% returns in GBP terms on my condo since 2005, and it is just sitting empty - You think I am kidding?. That one really threw me.
Edited by pkrv, 2009-11-05 21:49:25. #49
Sabai Sabai Member Posted 2009-11-05 22:02:16
I must confess I was taken aback when I achieved 100% returns in GBP terms on my condo since 2005, and it is just sitting empty - You think I am kidding?. That one really threw me. If so, as I said, not impossible. You did actually sell it though? #50
Platinum Member Posted 2009-11-05 22:29:26
I must confess I was taken aback when I achieved 100% returns in GBP terms on my condo since 2005, and it is just sitting empty - You think I am kidding?. That one really threw me. If so, as I said, not impossible. You did actually sell it though? No - nor would I want to. However the situation that generated this has somewhat focused my mind on certain issues. 50% from FX movement 50% from off the plan. There are prices on the site. The Park handles its own sales for various reasons. http://www.theparkresidence.co.th/ you can go back through the topic on the real estate forum if you wish. http://www.thaivisa.com/forum/Major-Projec...+major+projects Edited by pkrv, 2009-11-05 22:32:31. |
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