Prev Page 3 of 10 1 2 3 4 5 Next » Please log in to reply 237 replies to this topic

[JimsKnight]

Naam just loves to get the last little word in

And this time the final word from Naam is...

[Lost in LOS]

Naam, on 2009-11-15 22:59:00, said:

Lost in LOS, on 2009-11-16 10:04:02, said:

unfortunately i have my money in dollars and I am worried about it.

what did i tell you nearly two years ago over a bottle of Sherry?  

yeah but we split the bottle 50/50.  If I would have drank the whole bottle I would have understood better     must have been those great sandwiches that got me thinking wrong

[Naam]

Lost in LOS, on 2009-11-17 16:02:24, said:

Naam, on 2009-11-15 22:59:00, said:

Lost in LOS, on 2009-11-16 10:04:02, said:

unfortunately i have my money in dollars and I am worried about it.

what did i tell you nearly two years ago over a bottle of Sherry?  

yeah but we split the bottle 50/50.  If I would have drank the whole bottle I would have understood better     must have been those great sandwiches that got me thinking wrong

somehow i don't believe what most @n@ls and a multitude of "learned" chaps predict (the Dollar is doomed). my best guess is that we have reached USD/JP¥ and USD/€UR lows. NZD and AUD might still have a bit to go.

on the other hand i also don't believe in a big USD recovery as carry trades are too tempting and there is neither a sign nor a valid reason for the FED to raise interest rates.

all aforesaid of course -as always- in my [not so] humble opinion!  

[ray23]

Thanks Naam that was the answer I was looking for.

[Orion76]

Naam, on 2009-11-17 16:46:32, said:

on the other hand i also don't believe in a big USD recovery as carry trades are too tempting and there is neither a sign nor a valid reason for the FED to raise interest rates.

The carry trade is what makes an unexpected huge spike in the USD very probable.

If some catalyst, like an unexpected geopolitical event, causes the USD to suddenly add a few % then all carry traders will bail out of their positions. This "bailing out" will be in the form of speculators selling oil, metals, equities, commodities, other currencies etc., basically buying the dollar and selling everything else. It's called a short squeeze.

When these securities start selling off their prices will plummet and other investors/speculators will start selling these securities too and move their money into fixed income funds, aka a flight to safety, further driving up the dollar.

A dollar short squeeze + a flight to safety = spectacular peak in dollar value and spectacular decline in prices of everything else.

It's not a guaranteed thing but very probable, and the more money goes into the carry trade the harder the recoil will be when it ends.

Long term I believe the USD will go the way of the ZWD, but short term a spike is a high probability event.

If you're just concerned about if you will be getting 29 or 36 baht for your dollars a few years from now then this is not all that relevant, but if you have a lot of money invested in equities and future contracts then you'd be well advised to monitor the situation closely and trade with very tight stops. For nimble traders the shorting opportunity of a lifetime might be on the horizon

[lannarebirth]

The $USD can't move up throught its 50 sma because it' has got too much downslope on it.  Starting today and for the next few days hereafter  the severest drop in the $USD from 45-50 days ago will come off the ma and it will begin to flatten.  That is a precondition of it moving up.  Needless to say the buck has to generally stay in this area while this takes place.  All FWIW and OCICBW blah blah.

Edited by lannarebirth, 2009-11-17 22:28:31.

[ray23]

Being in the 29 to 36 type folk complicated stuff but interesting to learn.

[jesimps]

JimsKnight, on 2009-11-16 15:15:56, said:

Naam just loves to get the last little word in

And this time the final word from Naam is...

"Aaaaaarrrrrrggggghhhhhh"........hopefully.

[ray23]

Interesting interview on the 15 min. buisness segiment on the BBC this morning. I can't recall the guys name but an American and involved in Forex trading. I think he summed up Bernenke pretty good. No one is listening anymore to we want a strong dollar. Neither am I, his point was a simple .25% increase would turn the direction of the dollar. His position was that would not really effect the recession. At the same time give people something they could believe instead of just idle talk.  

Think about it this started a long time ago, been the ongoing presentation  through two Presidents terms. Was Bush trying to teach the the Chinese a lesson to let the value of thier curency to increase. If so that was a huge mistake.

So in the end today as dollar earners we see less purchasing power and that will only increase with inflation.

Sadly he believed it would be as much as two years before we actually see some measure of assistance. Recent history and the current position of the FED I see no reason to doubt him.

[lannarebirth]

lannarebirth, on 2009-11-17 22:17:25, said:

The $USD can't move up throught its 50 sma because it' has got too much downslope on it. Starting today and for the next few days hereafter the severest drop in the $USD from 45-50 days ago will come off the ma and it will begin to flatten. That is a precondition of it moving up. Needless to say the buck has to generally stay in this area while this takes place. All FWIW and OCICBW blah blah.

The $USD Index closed above its 50day ma yesterday for the first time since April.  The ma has been desloping which is normally a precondition to an advance.  If the buck doesn't fall precipitously in the next 8 trading days the 50ma will have gone flat and no longer be resistance.  Just an observation and not a prediction of anything.  Nothing overtly bullish here save for some positive divergances.

 usd.png   105.19K   5 downloads

[flying]

lannarebirth, on 2009-12-05 12:35:30, said:

The $USD Index closed above its 50day ma yesterday for the first time since April.  The ma has been desloping which is normally a precondition to an advance.  If the buck doesn't fall precipitously in the next 8 trading days the 50ma will have gone flat and no longer be resistance.  Just an observation and not a prediction of anything.  Nothing overtly bullish here save for some positive divergences.

If so one has to wonder if the FED would then start easing up the interest rate & the effect that would have.

[sokal]

Naam, on 2009-11-16 16:03:40, said:

Dollar doomed? i don't think so. a dozen or more central banks are buying dollars like mad to prevent their currencies rising too fast. how long will that last? i have no bloody idea  

A dozen or more central bankers are clueless and they will wake up one of these days. One day these central bankers will realize that an appreciating currency makes energy and commodities cheaper which is a good thing.

Is gas better at 85 cents a liter or would you prefer to pay $2 ?

Would you rather pay $5 for a loaf of bread then $1.50 ?

[sokal]

Orion76, on 2009-11-17 20:54:59, said:

Naam, on 2009-11-17 16:46:32, said:

on the other hand i also don't believe in a big USD recovery as carry trades are too tempting and there is neither a sign nor a valid reason for the FED to raise interest rates.

The carry trade is what makes an unexpected huge spike in the USD very probable.

If some catalyst, like an unexpected geopolitical event, causes the USD to suddenly add a few % then all carry traders will bail out of their positions. This "bailing out" will be in the form of speculators selling oil, metals, equities, commodities, other currencies etc., basically buying the dollar and selling everything else. It's called a short squeeze.

When these securities start selling off their prices will plummet and other investors/speculators will start selling these securities too and move their money into fixed income funds, aka a flight to safety, further driving up the dollar.

A dollar short squeeze + a flight to safety = spectacular peak in dollar value and spectacular decline in prices of everything else.

It's not a guaranteed thing but very probable, and the more money goes into the carry trade the harder the recoil will be when it ends.

Long term I believe the USD will go the way of the ZWD, but short term a spike is a high probability event.

If you're just concerned about if you will be getting 29 or 36 baht for your dollars a few years from now then this is not all that relevant, but if you have a lot of money invested in equities and future contracts then you'd be well advised to monitor the situation closely and trade with very tight stops. For nimble traders the shorting opportunity of a lifetime might be on the horizon

The carry trade is slightly overrated. Its not that simple. Its not like oil is spiking up, its just hovering around a reasonable price. Gold is being bought by central banks like India with USD,and never to be converted to USD in the near future.

[sokal]

flying, on 2009-12-06 00:54:37, said:

lannarebirth, on 2009-12-05 12:35:30, said:

The $USD Index closed above its 50day ma yesterday for the first time since April.  The ma has been desloping which is normally a precondition to an advance.  If the buck doesn't fall precipitously in the next 8 trading days the 50ma will have gone flat and no longer be resistance.  Just an observation and not a prediction of anything.  Nothing overtly bullish here save for some positive divergences.

If so one has to wonder if the FED would then start easing up the interest rate & the effect that would have.

A rate hike will spook the day traders for a week or 2 but the trend will not change. Even if they raise rates to 2%, 2% is still nothing. Say they go with 1%, the AUS central bank is already at 3.75% and will probably always be ahead of the Fed.

[Naam]

sokal, on 2009-12-06 05:08:28, said:

The carry trade is slightly overrated. Its not that simple. Its not like oil is spiking up, its just hovering around a reasonable price. Gold is being bought by central banks like India with USD,and never to be converted to USD in the near future.

gold has been bought by India from the IMF by paying in SDRs.

[flying]

Naam, on 2009-12-06 06:15:23, said:

sokal, on 2009-12-06 05:08:28, said:

Gold is being bought by central banks like India with USD,and never to be converted to USD in the near future.

gold has been bought by India from the IMF by paying in SDRs.

That also came to my mind when I read that.
But it made me wonder .....How does one obtain a SDR




Buying and selling SDRs

Quote

IMF members often need to buy SDRs to discharge obligations to the IMF, or they may wish to sell SDRs in order to adjust the composition of their reserves. The IMF acts as a broker between members and prescribed holders to ensure that SDRs can be exchanged for freely usable currencies. For more than two decades, the SDR market has functioned through voluntary trading arrangements. Under these arrangements a number of members and one prescribed holder have volunteered to buy or sell SDRs within limits defined by their respective arrangements. In view of the expected increase in the volume of transactions following the 2009 SDR allocations, the number and size of the voluntary arrangements has been expanded to ensure continued liquidity of the voluntary SDR market.

Edited by flying, 2009-12-06 06:51:50.

[Naam]

But it made me wonder .....How does one obtain a SDR. Wondered if any country can buy SDR's with proper currencies once exchanged?

IMF member countries don't necessarily have to buy SDRs but are entitled to a certain allocation of SDRs as loan. otherwise SDRs can be acquired by any country using the ratio of currencies which an SDR contains. but countries cannot deal in SDRs directly with each other. the only way is via the IMF. then again, anybody can replicate his/her own SDRs if buying the proportionate currencies.

in the case on India it was not revealed how much cash and how much entitlement (or other loan facility) was used to buy the lion share of the IMF's gold.

[flying]

Naam, on 2009-12-06 06:58:47, said:

But it made me wonder .....How does one obtain a SDR. Wondered if any country can buy SDR's with proper currencies once exchanged?

IMF member countries don't necessarily have to buy SDRs but are entitled to a certain allocation of SDRs as loan. otherwise SDRs can be acquired by any country using the ratio of currencies which an SDR contains. but countries cannot deal in SDRs directly with each other. the only way is via the IMF. then again, anybody can replicate his/her own SDRs if buying the proportionate currencies.

in the case on India it was not revealed how much cash and how much entitlement (or other loan facility) was used to buy the lion share of the IMF's gold.

Thanks
Yes I was reading a bit more at their site.
Interesting actually both the current & their history.
Pretty amazing how much it has grown recently too

October 31, 2009

The SDR is an international reserve asset, created by the IMF in 1969 to supplement its member countries' official reserves. Its value is based on a basket of four key international currencies, and SDRs can be exchanged for freely usable currencies. With a general SDR allocation that took effect on August 28 and a special allocation on September 9, 2009, the amount of SDRs increased from SDR 21.4 billion to SDR 204.1 billion (currently equivalent to about $324 billion).

[Beardog]

With unemployment hovering around 10&1/2 % I don't think the dollar is going towards an increase in interest rates . as much as I think the guys that pull the strings are jokers, I don't think they are apt to shoot themselves in the foot yet. And the minor lowering this week in unemployment might just as well be benefits are exhausted soon to return. To yesterdays status. I am from the U.S. they are getting killed back home, that & I think the democrats know if they do something stupid it will be a change of guard quickly for the senate in 2010. I am indeed no expert, but it would seem according to history interest rates go up when the economy is going strong or else it stagnates.I am not factoring in inflation just observing how the U.S. has dealt with rate increases. They need to sell sell sell & by raising rates will just exasperate the scrooge dilemma!
I forgot the original question: The dollar is definitely In a bull shite market. It is great for exports- but is killing the country as no one is getting to reap the rewards except corporations that are getting more business from exporting.
They raise interest rates UHHH can you say Lynch mob!

Edited by Beardog, 2009-12-06 09:27:18.

[Orion76]

sokal, on 2009-12-06 05:08:28, said:

The carry trade is slightly overrated. Its not that simple. Its not like oil is spiking up, its just hovering around a reasonable price. Gold is being bought by central banks like India with USD,and never to be converted to USD in the near future.

Have a look at the intraday chart of the USD, Gold and Crude for last Friday.

 friday.png   96.12K   7 downloads

Losing 3% on a GC or CL contract in one afternoon really hurts, ouch. Why such dramatic moves in one day, what happened Friday?

What's the maximum % you think a black swan event can move the markets in one day? How many % would you let GC or CL or ES move against you before you start selling?

[sokal]

Orion76, on 2009-12-06 17:00:59, said:

sokal, on 2009-12-06 05:08:28, said:

The carry trade is slightly overrated. Its not that simple. Its not like oil is spiking up, its just hovering around a reasonable price. Gold is being bought by central banks like India with USD,and never to be converted to USD in the near future.

Have a look at the intraday chart of the USD, Gold and Crude for last Friday.

 friday.png   96.12K   7 downloads

Losing 3% on a GC or CL contract in one afternoon really hurts, ouch. Why such dramatic moves in one day, what happened Friday?

What's the maximum % you think a black swan event can move the markets in one day? How many % would you let GC or CL or ES move against you before you start selling?

It only hurts if you went 100% in the day before. How many people did that ?

Black swan events are the reason you want to own gold.

[VegasVic]

morrobay, on 2009-11-10 11:44:51, said:

Mabey this is wishful thinking but some economists interviewed on Bloomberg have said there is going to be a substantial increase in U.S.  interests rates in 2010.
So this would cause dollar appreciation, right ?

Morrobay, A substantial increase in interest rates in the U.S. in mid to late 2010 is basically a given at this point in time, the rate increases will however only be the second leg in the Dollar bull run in 2010. The primary reason for the Dollars surge next year will be the unwinding of the Dollar carry trade (perhaps the most underreported story in the business media). The Dollar carry trade is poised to begin unwinding any time now, my best guess is that it will begin in earnesrt by mid Febuary. By April Oil will be heading back to $50/bbl and gold will be back below $900/ounce. As far as gold goes there could very likely be one more quick pop to $1300-$1350, this will be the final sucker rally in gold and the traders at GS and elsewhere begin to unwind there gold positions. Look for a lot of media hype in gold in January, you will likely see a multitude of analysts predictions of $2000 gold at that time, this will signal the top of the gold bubble. The easiest way to make money in 2010 will be to short gold and go long the dollar. GLTY!

[flying]

Whoa Vegas Vic !

How are you? Have not seen you since last Thanksgivings
Glad to see ya back.

PS: but your still blind to gold  

You remember when I asked about it at 735?
You told me thats crazy wait for 400

Edited by flying, 2009-12-07 09:59:22.

[VegasVic]

flying, on 2009-12-07 10:57:10, said:

Whoa Vegas Vic !

How are you? Have not seen you since last Thanksgivings
Glad to see ya back.

PS: but your still blind to gold  

You remember when I asked about it at 735?
You told me thats crazy wait for 400

Flying, I don't think it has been quite that long since I have been here nor do I remember telling you to wait for gold to go to $400/ounce before you buy. I made a windfall in the financial sector stocks this year and have been enjoying life to the fullest. BTW I also made some nice coin trading gold shares both on the long and short side for the past 14 months as well, but the gold bubble is in full swing at this time, hopefully you will be able to see the light beofre the bubble bursts and the Dollar carry trade unwinds. GLTY, and may you and your family enjoy a safe holiday season  

[flying]

VegasVic, on 2009-12-07 10:10:28, said:

Flying, I don't think it has been quite that long since I have been here nor do I remember telling you to wait for gold to go to $400/ounce before you buy. I made a windfall in the financial sector stocks this year and have been enjoying life to the fullest. BTW I also made some nice coin trading gold shares both on the long and short side for the past 14 months as well, but the gold bubble is in full swing at this time, hopefully you will be able to see the light beofre the bubble bursts and the Dollar carry trade unwinds. GLTY, and may you and your family enjoy a safe holiday season  

Well anyway I remember not this thanksgiving but last because I think you were buying some GLD?
As for your price prediction....

VegasVic, on 2008-10-19 04:08:23, said:

flying, on 2008-10-19 02:52:35, said:

What does the chart readers here think is a good buy spot for gold?
Is support at or around 650-700? Technically speaking  

Yes, there should be strong support in the $640-$670 level, once that level falls then a good "buy spot" for gold would be in the upper $300's (wait for about $365-$370 if possible). Then hold on tight to that gold and wait for about ten years and the next great gold run should begin  

But it is all good.
Glad to hear you did well this year.
As for the gold bubble...well who knows eh? Remember I am not a gold investor.
Just didn't like having so much USD
My kids can have the metals someday who knows.
Personally I think the dollar is toast & even a corpse sits up a few times after dying & during cremation  

Edited by flying, 2009-12-07 10:18:02.