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[Jingthing]

The time is near for the perhaps "final" escalation. It is very scary, potentially very violent, and a sad time for Thailand. Will Thaksin "win"?

[Heng]

Thaksin?  No.  

Someone like Thaksin, yes.    It's only a matter of time until the yellows have no backup.  

[hhgz]

"Will Thaksin "win"?"

He already has.

[givenall]

hhgz, on 2009-11-22 15:26:16, said:

"Will Thaksin "win"?"

He already has.

Yeap he has for now, his freedom in Cambodia

[Jingthing]

I think the most honest answer is --

I haven't a clue whether he will win or lose


because nobody knows the future. However, I also voted my best guess.

BTW, I think there are many possible definitions for a Thaksin win, from a small win to a big win.  Some examples here but there are many possibly outcomes that could be described as some kind of win.

A small win would be no more jail time, getting to keep most of his frozen assets, etc.

A bigger win might be some kind of total pardon.

A really big win would be overthrowing the current government and returning to full power.

Edited by Jingthing, 2009-11-23 13:19:48.

[h90]

he'll loose this battle, but I am not sure for the future.
There be times the country is less stable than now (yes that is possible) and he (or someone similar, it doesn't mater what face the next dictator has) may win.
Or the opposite, a coup made with good intentions to prevent some evil guy, but at the end the coup maker aren't much better.

But I would not worry for the next 6 month. No way for Thaksin.

[Jingthing]

Yeah, but if all of his frozen assets are taken from him permanently  and if he also receives many more years jail sentence, will he have both the drive and MOTIVATION to continue this fight?

[Samuian]

imho I think he will be nailed - till now he made it way too clear what he's up to, may this never ever happen, Thanoms Premiership will then look like a fairytale!

Thailand would face something like Singapore a one party leadership, cronyism and iron rule of fist!

If he get's it his way, after what he sees as a heavy humiliation, that he hasn't deserved...

I just can;t imagine, but take his handling of the 'war against drugs", the Tak Bai and Kru Sae, the disappearance of the human rights activist..... one can figure out what is going to come if he can stage a come back into power!

[WinnieTheKhwai]

I hope it's final, only because we won't have ridiculous polls anymore.  Honestly, it's worth it.

I went for the Grouchy choice.

[caf]

What is best for the thai people and who will get them nearer a full democarcy. lower corruption, no coups.

There is too much emphasis on the daily doings of one man. Spectators and players should be watching the ball, not listening to the commentator

[Jingthing]

WinnieTheKhwai, on 2009-11-23 14:35:17, said:

I hope it's final, only because we won't have ridiculous polls anymore.  Honestly, it's worth it.

I went for the Grouchy choice.

Why would the polls stop?

[Meridian007]

I'm the only one who has chosen "will win/don't want him to", because I think there needs to be some temporal dimension to this.

I think he will succeed in postponing the decision on his assets somehow (don't ask me how, I have no idea, but I will give him the credit that he seems to be able to pull semi-effective rabbits out of his hat occasionally, and unexpectedly), because of the Thai aversion to making a major decision. This decision (if it is made, and is allowed to stand), may be one of the most major decisions made here in the past 10-15 years. Its implications will be enormous.
Those in power here hate to firmly place themselves on one side or the other, (despite their yelling, they will still jump to another side if it seems that side is growing, rather than standing with their principles), and I think the court case will reflect this.

In this way, he will win. Will he come back as PM (and win that way)? Not likely at all, but depending on how many of his fingers he can stick into the governmental pie, that will define his future win or loss.

[Jingthing]

Funny, I thought about that too. I was wondering if one way to diffuse the huge tension occurring right now and the unfortunate timing during the supposed to be celebratory December events would be to announce a DELAY of the final decision on assets until after the high season. However, wouldn't that just delay the inevitable? Sooner or later, doesn't there really have to be a real definitive winner and loser?

[Meridian007]

The more delay, the more likely a decision will be made in Thaksin's favour is my interpretation of it. All it takes is for the government to change enough so that someone who is slightly sympathetic to Thaksin drops the charges, which will then negate any move forward on the other cases against him. I think this is the linchpin for all of his current and potential power in Thailand.

Therefore the aversion to making such big decisions is banked into how sure those involved believe that he will never have the power to extract revenge from them, a formidable stumbling block for many in power here. The psychology/perception of power is often stronger than its actual possession or usage.

Edited by Meridian007, 2009-11-23 16:10:29.

[otherstuff1957]

I really think that there are too many variables to predict what will happen.  Any one of half a dozen unexpected events could tip the balance toward or away from Thaksin.  

Personally, I'd like to see him lose definitively.  It would be interesting to see what would happen to the reds with Thaksin out of the picture.  Would they fade away without him?  Or would they evolve from a personality cult into an ideologically based party?

[junglist]

I think Thaksin is starting to spin out of control. Word on the street from my southern friends is that a Fatwa is being placed upon him. His Dubai safe heaven is slipping away.

[WinnieTheKhwai]

Jingthing, on 2009-11-23 15:06:26, said:

WinnieTheKhwai, on 2009-11-23 14:35:17, said:

I hope it's final, only because we won't have ridiculous polls anymore.  Honestly, it's worth it.

I went for the Grouchy choice.

Why would the polls stop?

Nooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooo!!!!    

( You're right, you'd probably just find something else to poll over.  Did you do a poll on the meaning of the word Farang yet? )

[Soutpeel]

caf, on 2009-11-23 14:50:40, said:

What is best for the thai people and who will get them nearer a full democarcy. lower corruption, no coups.

Caf....What the h*ll is full democracy ???......Democracy doesnt exist anywhere in the world, its a myth....corruption is prevelant in all so called Democratic countries...

[mahtin]

junglist, on 2009-11-23 11:10:52, said:

I think Thaksin is starting to spin out of control. Word on the street from my southern friends is that a Fatwa is being placed upon him. His Dubai safe heaven is slipping away.

A fatwā (Arabic: فتوى‎; plural fatāwā Arabic: فتاوى‎), in the Islamic faith is a religious opinion concerning Islamic law issued by an Islamic scholar.

Or do your friends see it differently?

[Jingthing]

WinnieTheKhwai, on 2009-11-23 17:28:33, said:

Jingthing, on 2009-11-23 15:06:26, said:

WinnieTheKhwai, on 2009-11-23 14:35:17, said:

I hope it's final, only because we won't have ridiculous polls anymore.  Honestly, it's worth it.

I went for the Grouchy choice.

Why would the polls stop?

Nooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooo!!!!    

( You're right, you'd probably just find something else to poll over.  Did you do a poll on the meaning of the word Farang yet? )

I'm afraid so.

[Jingthing]

Krimson, on 2009-11-23 21:21:46, said:

Just see the results of the poll. That Mr Thaksin has 30% support is absolutely fantastic given the constant brain washing from the local english press. One can expect a clear majority once a more balanced information will be available

Most of us are educated westerners here. We are quite capable of thinking for ourselves, thank you very much. Regarding your budding career as a spin doctor, may I kindly suggest you keep your day job?

[londonthai]

he will lose this time, but it's not the end of the history.

within a short time thailand will be going through a huge political turmoil, anything might happen than - especially, if masses take to the streets and some lower rank cops and army side with them. In the recent history it was philipines

[Jingthing]

londonthai, on 2009-11-23 22:01:34, said:

he will lose this time, but it's not the end of the history.

within a short time thailand will be going through a huge political turmoil, anything might happen than - especially, if masses take to the streets and some lower rank cops and army side with them. In the recent history it was philipines

Corrupt discredited Thaksin does NOT impress me as a credible leader of a real people power movement.

[sassienie]

I wouldn’t write Thaksin off just yet.

This is Thailand and I have learned through experience that a situation here can change by the hour.

If Thaksin does manage to gain power again, he may remember all the nations that denied him access to they’re countries, then suddenly many ex-pats could find themselves unable to renew their visas. A similar scenario as to what the Israelis did to their Asian Immigrant workers. So those who voted, don`t care one way or another, should begin taking the situation more seriously.

I’m hoping that Thakisin will fade away into obscurity, but perhaps that’s wishful thinking.

[zzaa09]

hhgz, on 2009-11-22 16:26:16, said:

"Will Thaksin "win"?"

He already has.

The people won't win in any case, regarding all these current circumstanced affairs. But we do know whom will benefit...