Observers Believe Coup Still Possible
#1
Posted 2010-02-01 04:57
By THANONG KHANTHONG
THE NATION
Published on February 1, 2010
To many observers, a military coup still looms on the horizon, and the question tilts toward when it would happen rather than if it would occur.
They believe the military was about to stage a coup last Friday but, for unknown reasons, decided to walk away from it at the last minute.
The timing was tantalizing. "Then Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva was on his way to Switzerland, while General Anupong Paochinda, the Army chief, was making a trip to the South," one source said.
Activities and comments coming from the the red-shirt movement helped fuel coup speculation. Natthawut Saikua, one of their leaders, kept warning that the public should keep an eye on the period between February 4 and 14 when Army Chief Gen Anupong will make an overseas trip. He said that within that 10-day period a military coup could take place.
The red shirts are particularly wary of Gen Prayuth Chan-Ocha, the deputy Army chief who has become a focus of serious speculation. Despite his denials last week, Prayuth has remained hounded by rumours that a coup leader has been designated, with preparatory measures ready to be introduced before, during and after the coup.
"If the coup were to happen, the National United Front for Democracy against Dictatorship will create an uprising to ward off the coup," he said.
Giving rise to this talk is the question how Thailand will cope with the spectre of bitter conflict and violence in the run-up to the Supreme Court's ruling on the Bt76 billion asset seizure case against former prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra on February 26. Thaksin is expected to fight to his death to protect his last fortune.
In September 2006, the military rolled out the tanks to remove Thak-sin and to prevent clashes between the Yellow Shirt protesters and Thaksin's supporters. The military was said to be far from enjoying unity then, almost shooting at each other.
This time around, the military is said to be firmly united around the brainy Gen Prayuth, the new Army chief-designated. Proclaimed confidence in Prayuth has to do with the delicate consequences linked to the ruling on Thaksin's asset seizure case, and a belief that the Abhisit government is no longer in total charge of the situation, particularly with a desperate Thaksin on the loose.
Last Monday His Majesty the King granted an audience for new judges and called on them to exercise their duty with bravery, righteousness and justice. This followed rumours of alleged attempts to lobby the Su-preme Court on the asset seizure case.
Thaksin has completely lost his support from the military, as seen by last week's gatherings of mid-level commanders and their troops to demonstrate unequivocal backing for Army chief Gen Anupong.
Virtually all the mid-level military commanders, including rangers from Pak Thongchai, Nakhon Ratchasima, have signalled that they would support Gen Anupong and boycott Maj Gen Khattiya Sawasdiphol, one of the outspoken leaders of the Thaksin's red shirts. Maj Gen Khattiya has made veiled threats against Anupong, members of the Asset Examination Committee and judges involved in the asset seizure case.
A desperate Thaksin may resort to a red shirt uprising to create social upheaval to the extent that His Majesty the King is obliged to intervene for a truce. He also might launch last-minute lobbying efforts targetting the Supreme Court.
In addition to that, Thaksin could try to embarrass Thailand by taking the asset seizure case to the World Court. He claimed people everywhere knew that his family had been rich before he entered politics.
THE NATION
http://www.nationmultimedia.com/2010/02/01...cs_30121534.php
#2
Posted 2010-02-01 05:28
By THANONG KHANTHONG
THE NATION
Published on February 1, 2010
The military has repeatedly denied it, Democrats apparently aren't worried about it. Yet, a coup remains a compelling prospect for many. Here are the caes for and against the possibility of it happening.
To many observers, a military coup still looms on the horizon, and the question tilts toward when it would happen rather than if it would occur.
They believe the military was about to stage a coup last Friday but, for unknown reasons, decided to walk away from it at the last minute.
The timing was tantalizing. "Then Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva was on his way to Switzerland, while General Anupong Paochinda, the Army chief, was making a trip to the South," one source said.
Activities and comments coming from the the red-shirt movement helped fuel coup speculation. Natthawut Saikua, one of their leaders, kept warning that the public should keep an eye on the period between February 4 and 14 when Army Chief Gen Anupong will make an overseas trip. He said that within that 10-day period a military coup could take place.
The red shirts are particularly wary of Gen Prayuth Chan-Ocha, the deputy Army chief who has become a focus of serious speculation. Despite his denials last week, Prayuth has remained hounded by rumours that a coup leader has been designated, with preparatory measures ready to be introduced before, during and after the coup.
"If the coup were to happen, the National United Front for Democracy against Dictatorship will create an uprising to ward off the coup," he said.
Giving rise to this talk is the question how Thailand will cope with the spectre of bitter conflict and violence in the run-up to the Supreme Court's ruling on the Bt76 billion asset seizure case against former prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra on February 26. Thaksin is expected to fight to his death to protect his last fortune.
In September 2006, the military rolled out the tanks to remove Thak-sin and to prevent clashes between the Yellow Shirt protesters and Thaksin's supporters. The military was said to be far from enjoying unity then, almost shooting at each other.
This time around, the military is said to be firmly united around the brainy Gen Prayuth, the new Army chief-designated. Proclaimed confidence in Prayuth has to do with the delicate consequences linked to the ruling on Thaksin's asset seizure case, and a belief that the Abhisit government is no longer in total charge of the situation, particularly with a desperate Thaksin on the loose.
Last Monday His Majesty the King granted an audience for new judges and called on them to exercise their duty with bravery, righteousness and justice. This followed rumours of alleged attempts to lobby the Su-preme Court on the asset seizure case.
Thaksin has completely lost his support from the military, as seen by last week's gatherings of mid-level commanders and their troops to demonstrate unequivocal backing for Army chief Gen Anupong.
Virtually all the mid-level military commanders, including rangers from Pak Thongchai, Nakhon Ratchasima, have signalled that they would support Gen Anupong and boycott Maj Gen Khattiya Sawasdiphol, one of the outspoken leaders of the Thaksin's red shirts. Maj Gen Khattiya has made veiled threats against Anupong, members of the Asset Examination Committee and judges involved in the asset seizure case.
A desperate Thaksin may resort to a red shirt uprising to create social upheaval to the extent that His Majesty the King is obliged to intervene for a truce. He also might launch last-minute lobbying efforts targetting the Supreme Court.
In addition to that, Thaksin could try to embarrass Thailand by taking the asset seizure case to the World Court. He claimed people everywhere knew that his family had been rich before he entered politics.
THE NATION
http://www.nationmultimedia.com/2010/02/01...cs_30121534.php
#3
Posted 2010-02-01 07:29
Garry9999, on 2010-02-01 05:28:21, said:
THE NATION
http://www.nationmultimedia.com/2010/02/01...cs_30121534.php
I wonder why this is never mentioned earlier.I guess it's nothing more then normal that a case of this level would be decided by an international court.So for sure 26 February will not be the end of this story.
#4
Posted 2010-02-01 07:38
basjke, on 2010-02-01 07:29:10, said:
Garry9999, on 2010-02-01 05:28:21, said:
THE NATION
http://www.nationmultimedia.com/2010/02/01...cs_30121534.php
I wonder why this is never mentioned earlier.I guess it's nothing more then normal that a case of this level would be decided by an international court.So for sure 26 February will not be the end of this story.
The last thing the Thai authorities want is to see this in an international court, too much change the truth may be revealed.
Thaksin still has many cards he's yet to play.
#5
Posted 2010-02-01 08:07
#6
Posted 2010-02-01 08:33
Quote
This says it all right here.
They are trying to look like they are saving the country
by doing a coup to LOOK LIKE a save the country action.
Because their army faction 'stalking horse'
will fake a army leadership coup; uniforms are uniforms.
Then their OTHER 'loyalist' army factions will pretend to put it down, until the two meet,
quietly join forces and take out the army leadership and the cabinet
under the flag of 'saving the country'.
Oowwee Red shirts save the day, from the evil coup attempters.
Not coincidentally Thaksin has just come back as unelected Prime Minister
and declared martial law and most all press and personal freedoms
are voided while he clears out the riff raff and dissenting minds.
Quote

-- The Nation 01/02/2010
...Activities and comments coming from the the red-shirt movement helped fuel coup speculation...
Natthawut Saikua, one of their leaders, kept warning that the public should keep an eye on
the period between February 4 and 14 when Army Chief Gen Anupong will make an overseas trip.
He said that within that 10-day period a military coup could take place..
Disinformation: our riot isn't a riot it's and anti coup action.
Otherwise it's just another coup by Thaksin to take back power.
Since that would get international condemnation he needs a ruse to hide behind.
As if Payuth needs to do a coup to get in power 8.5 months early,
when by waiting patiently he has a full 4 years on his own tenure...
Absurd to add this extra work to what he WILL get with doing nothing.
Note that the only side saying this is the street red shirts.
Propaganda 103;
Hide your actions against the people in a chimera of saving the people.
I really doubt the world court will do more than hem and haw for a year or more on this.
By the time it HAS made a decisions Thaksins day will be well passed.
This post has been edited by animatic: 2010-02-01 08:53
#7
Posted 2010-02-01 08:45
BANGKOK, 31 January 2010 (NNT) - Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjiva ruled out the benefit of a military coup amidst rumors made by ill-intentioned individuals and the anti-government United Front of Democracy against Dictatorship (UDD).
Speaking in his weekly talk show on Sunday, "Confidence in Thailand with Prime Minister Abhisit" the Prime Minister stated that the gatherings of military troops from several units in a show of allegiance for the Nation, Monarchy and the Army Commander in Chief could be legally executed, but admitted that he personally wished not to see organizational rifts and wanted all sides to perform their duties with honesty for the good of the country as a whole.
The move to show support of Army Chief Anupong Paochinda from several military camps across the country followed the aggressive action towards the army chief made by pro-Thaksin Major-General Khattiya Sawasdipol, also known as Seh Daeng, who was earlier suspended from duty on the charges of insubordination, attacking Gen Anupong's leadership and spearheading political campaigns against the ruling Democrat government. The embattled army specialist was also prime suspect of plotting a grenade attack at an army headquarters two weeks ago.

-- NNT 2010-02-01
#8
Posted 2010-02-01 08:48
I don't see any coup as a likely event UNLESS the reds act up so much that the Democrats/current government cannot maintain order. Since, unlike the Somchai government. the Democrats are positioned well with the traditional power groups in Thailand AND have some moral authority to act with, they are safe. The police and military won't stand back if the Reds get violent and the Demos won't ask for help with the reds unless they get violent.
I can only see one reason the reds would push hard enough to bring about a coup at this point and that is to try and get new elections within a year or so. I doubt the current coalition government can last another year but if the reds think that the Democrat government can hold out until the end of this election cycle they might take the risk.
#9
Posted 2010-02-01 09:21
#10
Posted 2010-02-01 09:49
Garry9999, on 2010-02-01 05:28:21, said:
In addition to that, Thaksin could try to embarrass Thailand by taking the asset seizure case to the World Court. He claimed people everywhere knew that his family had been rich before he entered politics.
THE NATION
http://www.nationmultimedia.com/2010/02/01...cs_30121534.php
Haven't the Red-Shirts repeatedly said they were against coups ? Except for one of their own colour, it appears.
Hasn't Thaksin condemned claimed lobbying efforts targetting the judges ? But did he ever get round to condemning Seh Daeng's threats to them ? What sort of justice is he really fighting for ? A fair hearing or a white-wash ?
The truth us clear for all to see.
Didn't Thaksin once say "The UN is not my father", yet now he wants to appeal to irrelevant world authorities, in his desperation to hold on to his loot.
But his family will still remain rich after the current case is settled, just not he himself, to quite the same degree.
He appears to be trying to force unrest, to the point where a military coup becomes the only possible way to maintain peace, but the government & military seem to be acting in a very restrained way, let's hope that this continues and his efforts remain frustrated. What a way for a former-PM to behave !
#11
Posted 2010-02-01 10:46
Also, as a farang, I'd rather see amilitary government than the return of a Toxin bent on revenge, and taking some of it out on the citizens of countries that have snubbed him.
Finally, why don't the Reds realise that there has never been a megalomaniac leader in history who has no brought his country to its knees. Aah! Education. They don't even know about Pol Pot next door. Let's keep em ignorant, eh?
#12
Posted 2010-02-01 12:09
#13
Posted 2010-02-01 14:13
#14
Posted 2010-02-01 15:13
#15
Posted 2010-02-01 15:20
DAVOS, Switzerland -- Thailand's prime minister said Saturday he saw no threat of his government being ousted in a coup despite speculation back home, insisting that the rule of law would triumph over intimidation.
Abhisit Vejjajiva said in an interview with The Associated Press that any talk of his government being overthrown was linked to the February court decision on whether to confiscate more than US$2 billion in assets linked to former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra, and his supporters' attempts to destabilize the country.
“I don't think there is any reason for a coup d'etat,” Abhisit said on the sidelines of the World Economic Forum.
“This government has been in office for just a little over a year. We have turned the economy around, implementing a number of policies that are reaching out to all sections of the population of Thailand. We are also observing the rule of law.”
Abhisit said political opponents of his royalist party had sufficient rights to freedom of expression, and that there was no need for any political change outside of new elections.
He promised to hold early elections when there were assurances that violence and intimidation tactics would be avoided.
Thaksin's supporters and opponents have repeatedly taken to the streets since he was ousted in a 2006 coup, sparring over who has the right to rule the country. He fled into self-imposed exile in 2008 before a Thai court found him guilty of violating a conflict of interest law and sentenced him to two years in prison. A court will decide next month whether to seize more than $2 billion in Thaksin's assets.
Abhisit was appointed prime minister in December 2008 after a Thaksin-allied government was dissolved by a court. Thaksin's supporters say Abhisit came to power illegitimately and should make way for an elected government.
Addressing the speculation, Abhisit said, “It's my political opponents trying to step up their campaign against the government... To do that they always want to drum up support by making speculation about violence, about coup d'etats.”
He called on all parties to respect the rule of law when the court issues its decision on Thaksin's assets Feb. 26.
Abhisit acknowledged that some in Thailand were “frustrated” that the legal system has been slow in addressing transgressors among his own supporters, who were believed responsible for breaking into a government TV office, seizing the prime minister's office for three months and occupying Bangkok's two airports.
“There's been constant progress on the work of the police on all those cases,” he said. “I know that some people are frustrated that it's too slow for their liking.”
Seeing the legal system work in these cases would help show Thailand's people that the rule of law applies equally to all, he said. Thaksin's supporters see it as rigged against the telecoms magnate who remains widely with the rural poor, upset by the control of Thailand's ruling elite.
“My policy is clear,” Abhisit said. “I've told police or officials that they shouldn't look at who is involved in a case. They should look at the merit of these cases. I'm confident if they stick to that, that's the best way to prove that we are serious about the rule of law.”

http://www.chinapost.com.tw/asia/thailand/...149/Thai-PM.htm
This post has been edited by Garry9999: 2010-02-01 15:29
#16
Posted 2010-02-01 15:31
The 2006 coup produced a very ineffective military government which now makes Abhisit (who was legally elected via the parliamentary system of coalitions) look very good in comparison. The article states the vast majority of the military is anti-Thaksin but considers Abhisit too weak to deal with the chaos. So what's the problem then? Why doesn't the military just work with Abhisit to get the country through this crisis period? I think martial law might make lots of sense during this time, but that is not the same thing as a coup. Probably a very naive analysis, but it still doesn't add up to me, the need for a coup.
This post has been edited by Jingthing: 2010-02-01 15:32
#17
Posted 2010-02-01 15:40
Whether 'tis nobler in the mind to suffer
The slings and arrows of outrageous fortune,
Or to take arms against a sea of troubles
And by opposing end them.
Free after Hamlet.
LaoPo
#18
Posted 2010-02-01 15:51
Just remember how much is a life worth.... out there?!
This post has been edited by Samuian: 2010-02-01 15:53
#19
Posted 2010-02-01 16:15
Garry9999, on 2010-02-01 15:20:20, said:
DAVOS, Switzerland -- Thailand's prime minister said Saturday he saw no threat of his government being ousted in a coup despite speculation back home, insisting that the rule of law would triumph over intimidation.
Abhisit Vejjajiva said in an interview with The Associated Press that any talk of his government being overthrown was linked to the February court decision on whether to confiscate more than US$2 billion in assets linked to former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra, and his supporters' attempts to destabilize the country.
“I don't think there is any reason for a coup d'etat,” Abhisit said on the sidelines of the World Economic Forum.
“This government has been in office for just a little over a year. We have turned the economy around, implementing a number of policies that are reaching out to all sections of the population of Thailand. We are also observing the rule of law.”
Abhisit said political opponents of his royalist party had sufficient rights to freedom of expression, and that there was no need for any political change outside of new elections.
He promised to hold early elections when there were assurances that violence and intimidation tactics would be avoided.
Thaksin's supporters and opponents have repeatedly taken to the streets since he was ousted in a 2006 coup, sparring over who has the right to rule the country. He fled into self-imposed exile in 2008 before a Thai court found him guilty of violating a conflict of interest law and sentenced him to two years in prison. A court will decide next month whether to seize more than $2 billion in Thaksin's assets.
Abhisit was appointed prime minister in December 2008 after a Thaksin-allied government was dissolved by a court. Thaksin's supporters say Abhisit came to power illegitimately and should make way for an elected government.
Addressing the speculation, Abhisit said, “It's my political opponents trying to step up their campaign against the government... To do that they always want to drum up support by making speculation about violence, about coup d'etats.”
He called on all parties to respect the rule of law when the court issues its decision on Thaksin's assets Feb. 26.
Abhisit acknowledged that some in Thailand were “frustrated” that the legal system has been slow in addressing transgressors among his own supporters, who were believed responsible for breaking into a government TV office, seizing the prime minister's office for three months and occupying Bangkok's two airports.
“There's been constant progress on the work of the police on all those cases,” he said. “I know that some people are frustrated that it's too slow for their liking.”
Seeing the legal system work in these cases would help show Thailand's people that the rule of law applies equally to all, he said. Thaksin's supporters see it as rigged against the telecoms magnate who remains widely with the rural poor, upset by the control of Thailand's ruling elite.
“My policy is clear,” Abhisit said. “I've told police or officials that they shouldn't look at who is involved in a case. They should look at the merit of these cases. I'm confident if they stick to that, that's the best way to prove that we are serious about the rule of law.”

http://www.chinapost.com.tw/asia/thailand/...149/Thai-PM.htm
Now -- do you really think the current PM called his party "royalist" or the PAD folks "his supporters"?
#20
Posted 2010-02-01 21:46
LaoPo, on 2010-02-01 15:40:11, said:
Whether 'tis nobler in the mind to suffer
The slings and arrows of outrageous fortune,
Or to take arms against a sea of troubles
And by opposing end them.
Free after Hamlet.
LaoPo
This post has been edited by basjke: 2010-02-01 21:47
#21
Posted 2010-02-01 22:52
A coup by whom?
By the part of the Army that is loyal or has been bought by Thaksin?
Won't happen.
Reasons:
- Everybody EXPECTS a possible uprising
- Thaksin didn't achieve much with the previous "rallies" of the reds, which totaled max. 30.000 people early last year if I remember correctly?
- The Army rallied around Anupong
- Neither military nor civilian intelligence service warned Thaksin in 2006, or he would have put much of his $$$ out of Thailand's reach. Today, those services are even more guaranteed to be on Anupongs's / Abhisit's side, and are probably working round the clock intercepting signals to and from every Thai military personality.
- What could be the motivation behind the allegiance of a senior military commander to Thaksin? Can someone imagine something else than muchos $$$ and a job as defense minister?
- Government-loyals now had so much time for identifying potential "problem persons" in the military, that they probably already contacted the subordinates and made proposals which cannot be refused
- HM the King expressed confidence in the supreme court with his address, which was probably aimed at preparing the people for a verdict that will be negative for Thaksin, but which also signals that the King wants this case to be judged without interference.
On a more practical note, can someone please report on defensive measures around Soovarnapoom?
I'd hate to be stranded again.
I'm more concerned that the reds as a last effort, would take their 20 to 30 thousand last supporters to seal off soovarnapoom like the PAD did.
This post has been edited by manarak: 2010-02-01 22:53
#22
Posted 2010-02-02 07:16
To think he once courted the great singer Jintara Poonlarp. She must be so grateful now that it never worked out.
#23
Posted 2010-02-02 07:40
COUP OR NOT COUP
I repeat - no coup plan : army chief
By Panya Thiewsangwan
The Nation
Published on February 2, 2010
BANGKOK: -- It has become somewhat of a daily routine. Yesterday more troops gathered to pledge allegiance to Army chief General Anupong Paochinda, and he repudiated again rumours that a coup was just around the corner.
He told commanders of key Army units at a meeting at Army headquarters that they should keep monitoring national developments this month, but the military must stick with its firm stance against any interference in politics.
Deputy Army spokeswoman Colonel Sirichan Ngathong told reporters that Anupong expressed concern to his men that the political conflict has subjected the Privy Council to political attacks, "which is a very inappropriate thing to do".
Anupong believes the rumours that the Army was preparing to stage a coup were started by those wanting to create a divide in the country as well as in the Armed Forces, she said.
"The Army will do its best to keep peace in this country and we will do so keeping in mind that we are not part of any colour and everyone is a fellow Thai like us," she quoted Anupong as saying.
"We will do our best to prevent violence and ensure that Thailand will go through any problems without an incident," he reportedly said.
Coup speculation has persisted despite repeated disclaimers by Anupong and his top deputies. On Friday, Anupong told reporters, "How many times do I have to deny it?"
Anupong talked about the coup concerns again yesterday because he "wanted the unit commanders to convey the correct message to their subordinates, that the current rumours are apparently aimed at creating confusion and feelings of uncertainty. It's their job to restore the confidence of their subordinates," Sirichan said.
One cause of the putsch talks, though, was the virtually daily assemblies of troops around the country to declare their support for Anupong and denounce "rogue" officer Khattiya Sawasdiphol. The bad blood between both men following Khattiya's repeated visits to fugitive Thaksin Shinawatra took a turn for the worse recently with a mysterious "grenade attack" on Army headquarters.
The mobilisations yesterday in Prachin Buri and Lop Buri involved thousands of troops.
In Lop Buri, special force unit commander Maj-General Suparat Pattanavisut told 3,000 soldiers that his unit would devote itself to defending the nation and the monarchy against insults and smear campaigns.
"Anyone who doesn't respect our tradition doesn't deserve to stay in the Army," he said.
Sirichan said Anupong did not object to the displays of loyalty but wanted everything to be on a reasonable scale.
The troop movements were not meant to be a show of force or a prelude to anything, she quoted him as saying.
"When he who is the highest ranking man in the Army has made public announcements several times that there will be no coup, it should serve as the best assurance," she added.

-- The Nation 2010-02-02
#24
Posted 2010-02-02 08:19
jdinasia, on 2010-02-01 10:15:40, said:
You can probably bet that the reporter from the Chinese newspaper did. I would like to think that Abhisit would have been sharp enough to set the questioner straight about a question like that. They do have a tendency to call a spade a spade when it comes to things like perceived "royalists".
Don't underestimate the Chinese media's ability to point out faults in every political system except its own.
#25
Posted 2010-02-02 12:06
Red shirts to rally at Army bases
The red shirts will organise a series of rallies designed to counter the Army's show of force and deter any attempts to stage a coup, organiser Natthawut Saikua said on Tuesday.
"If the soldiers can thump their topboots in a show of force, then the people too can thump their feet to protect democracy," Natthawut said.
The red shirts are expected today to rally at the Defence Ministry. They will on Thursday stage mini-rallies at key Army bases around the country.

-- The Nation 2020-02-02

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