Posted 2010-03-12 00:38:39
MARCH 14 MASS RALLIES
Will Thaksin be saved?
By Tulsathit Taptim
The last time Thaksin Shinawatra said "Please save me" in earnest, his political party was on the verge of losing state control to the Democrats.
The message, reportedly conveyed in late 2008 to the people who could swing parliamentary numbers in his favour or against him, obviously fell on deaf ears.
Now, hours before his red-shirted movement was about to launch a do-or-die campaign aimed at ousting the Democrat-led coalition, a similar plea has been made, this time to a number of people tasked with mobilising mobs from rural areas to Bangkok. "Don't abandon me, please," he reportedly told them.
Whether that was a clever rallying cry or a statement of desperation, nobody can really tell. But it seemed that Thaksin didn't know much more than the anxious Thai public how many people would be willing to take to the streets to help him now. The current political suspense was created not just by his side, but also rivals who are apparently better prepared after learning from the last Songkran's experience. Therefore, each side can only see half the picture of what's going on.
Will the rally be massive? As far as funding goes, Thaksin is in trouble. Many sources, including those from within his own camp, have confirmed that the red shirts' financial engine has been sputtering for quite some time. A yellow-shirt style, prolonged encampment has been ruled out, meaning red protest organisers will have to take whatever they have - big or small crowds - and go for broke within five or seven days.
"Organisers" are another problem. Nobody knows who is their ultimate leader, albeit the second in command after Thaksin. The movement has been split by financial and personal conflicts, so much so that there is no single person who can control everything. This problem might sort itself out if the streams of protesters heading to Bangkok manage to form a mass big enough to give everyone hope they can fight for a common goal. On the other hand, scattered mobs operating independently can prove uncontrollable and dangerous.
A huge mass will make a huge difference, and both sides know this, leading to a propaganda warfare unseen for a long time. A "climate of fear" has been instigated by both camps, but at this hour it's the government that seems to benefit more from it. The "peace" or "no-violence" campaigns gathering at various social spheres had more to do with concern that the red shirts would create a Songkran-type turmoil than worries that government troops would cruelly crack down on them.
The red shirts have themselves at least partly to blame for the widespread anxiety. Threats against media outlets and individuals, for example, were initiated by hardcore red members who left clear fingerprints on a few websites. This plays nicely into the hands of the government, which had been waiting for justification to invoke emergency laws and discredit a political rally already questioned for its lack of clear aims.
It's a gamble for the red shirts to spring back to life after Thaksin had a big chunk of his assets seized by the state. The movement has avoided mentioning the money and instead chosen to sing an old tune. This is a campaign against the Democrats' "illegitimate" rise to power, they claim, and the prime minister must dissolve the House immediately.
The government won't be cowed this time. Instead, it took the threats and amplified them to its own advantage. Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva asked the public not to panic but at the same time made sure the word "sabotage" appeared in front-page headlines last week. Yesterday mass-circulation Thai Rath broke taboos by sensationally leading with security being beefed up around Siriraj Hospital, where HM the King has been staying. In terms of media strategy, the red shirts have lost the first round.
The real information war, however, will be waged this weekend, when the red tide enters the city. Everyone, from protesters to police guards to military troops to bystanders, will be holding cameras or mobile phones that can shoot video clips to make sure that every "lie" is countered. Even policemen guarding The Nation compound said their bosses have given them handycams to record incidents related to red-shirted protests.
Will the opposing elements cancel each other out, allowing Thailand to avert yet another potential disaster? Although Thaksin is the one crying out to be "saved", it's his country that needs all the help it can get.
-- The Nation 2010-03-12
Posted 2010-03-12 00:43:21
Excellent summary.
Posted 2010-03-12 00:55:46
 anotherpeter, on 2010-03-12 00:43:21, said:
Agree.
The part about being more ore less "leaderless" is what worries me.
The masses react to thaksin " crying" on his channel, but he doesn't show any leadership at all.
Leaders are there, and lead, they have and take responsibility.
He doesn't. The mob doesnot really fight for a common goal.
Posted 2010-03-12 01:02:50
But the "reds" on here would have us believe that this weekends attempt to paralyze BKK is NOT about Thaksin. ...
yeah right
Posted 2010-03-12 01:03:36
Looks like Youtube is going to be must watch TV for the next few days should things get out of hand.
Posted 2010-03-12 01:44:34
The Nation Quote Although Thaksin is the one crying out to be "saved", it's his country that needs all the help it can get. Yes, that sums it up. Why do so many gullible people care about that corrupt megalomaniac? That is the question -- who can save Thailand from Thaksin? Anyone there?
Edited by Jingthing, 2010-03-12 01:45:01.
Posted 2010-03-12 02:05:35
Excellent article. It is crystal clear that the red's violent activities last Songkran showed Thailand the red 'face' the reds would like to hide.
It has been such a PR disaster for the reds that Thaksin has been forced to disassociate himself from the violence particularly in Bangkok and Pattaya/Jomtien and deny it was caused by his team.
Unfortunately the genie is out of the bag and preparations are in place.
The art of surprise has gone and what will be left will be an occasional skirmish at best.
Thaksin and the reds and the apologists would have loved to provoke an incident and jump on the wagon of state violence.
The trouble is verybody knows what they are up to.
It is driving the reds crazy trying to work out what to do.
Posted 2010-03-12 02:49:48
For sure - a good commentary - but Tulsathit Taptim seriously under estimates the tenacity and desperation of Thaksin and his associates to affect a political change to their mutual advantage.
Events some time next week (not Sunday) will test the government's resolve to its limits.
Edited by bulmercke, 2010-03-12 03:01:09.
Posted 2010-03-12 02:53:51
bulmercke, on 2010-03-12 02:49:48, said: For sure - a good commentary - but Tulsathit Taptim seriously underestimates the tenacity and desperation of Thaksin and his associates to affect a political change to their mutual advantage.
Events some time next week (not Sunday) will test the government's resolve to its limits.
I don't know.
Red events have had the tendency to fizzle out into a non-event lately and this one may go the same way, I hope that I am not wrong.
Posted 2010-03-12 03:03:07
.................. 2nd thought
Edited by flying, 2010-03-12 03:09:46.
Posted 2010-03-12 03:05:20
The only silver lining to all this is that a lot of noodles will be sold this next week, I'm sure a lot of people will be glad of that. I hope it's more of a light hearted protest to show the strength and breadth of feeling and not a rampage through the streets of Bangkok.
Posted 2010-03-12 03:46:41
Hard to see how the Reds can succeed when the government has the upper hand. From where I sit it looks like a long road to an untained democracy!
Posted 2010-03-12 05:11:07
jdinasia, on 2010-03-12 01:02:50, said: But the "reds" on here would have us believe that this weekends attempt to paralyze BKK is NOT about Thaksin. ...
yeah right
The anti-Thaksin here in in the Bangkok Media are desperately trying to make Thaksin the boogey man. This is an attempt to prevent a real election, properly supervised by the world observers from being held.
According to your own words Thaksin is an observer from Dubai. All Thai citizens have a right to be heard.
Posted 2010-03-12 06:19:35
khunjamespittman, on 2010-03-12 05:11:07, said: According to your own words Thaksin is an observer from Dubai. All Thai citizens have a right to be heard.
Regardless of who's right and who is wrong, it seems to me that Thaksin is now in an impossible situation from which he cannot recover. He can't come to Thailand because he'll have to serve a jail term. This is very important. The jail term is just 2 years. So if T had any character, he would come and serve his sentence and continue his fight in the country. But he doesn't, it's all a cynical ploy about his own money/power, and that shows by his actions.
Compare this to politicians who were actually fighting for a cause all over the world - Mandela, Aung San Sun Kyi, Anwar - they didn't run. They fought the regimes, and they risked their lives and well being.
This has been expertly exposed by the Democrats and the judgements against him. I am not sure if it's a brilliant tactic, or if it just happened this way. But taking not all, but half his money and sentencing him to a very light term both serve to expose Thaksin's true motives clear as day.
Who of the red shirts can really throw their body behind a movement to return $1Bn to Thaksin, so he has 2, and not just 1, the poor martyr? I don't think anybody will show up. T still has his supporters but their fervor must be at an all time low right now.
Posted 2010-03-12 07:49:29
no he will pay in this life and in many more to come.
Posted 2010-03-12 07:59:27
jdinasia, on 2010-03-12 01:02:50, said: But the "reds" on here would have us believe that this weekends attempt to paralyze BKK is NOT about Thaksin. ...
yeah right
Well, you got that wrong! And, I'm not a 'red' - just an interested observer who has lived in the LoS for nearly 20 years.
What people want is justice, freedom of speech, one law for all, etc.
Thaksin is finished in my opinion, and democracy never even got started in Thailand.
A government that came about following a coup is NOT a democratically-elected government.
This country needs a UN-supervised general election with total transparency (sic), which will prove what the people of this country wants.
Whoever 'loses' should then shut up and get on with their lives.
All this bickering is destroying this country, which is such a shame.
Posted 2010-03-12 08:17:19
Hi Soul has been lost for sometime now,
Karma or divine justice or mans justice all are arrayed against him,
and his ego won't allow him to believe he has fallen so far,
let alone that he has fallen so far, on aggregate, by his own hand.
No he can't be saved. But Thailand can be.
Posted 2010-03-12 08:17:27
khunjamespittman, on 2010-03-12 05:11:07, said: jdinasia, on 2010-03-12 01:02:50, said: But the "reds" on here would have us believe that this weekends attempt to paralyze BKK is NOT about Thaksin. ...
yeah right
The anti-Thaksin here in in the Bangkok Media are desperately trying to make Thaksin the boogey man. This is an attempt to prevent a real election, properly supervised by the world observers from being held.
According to your own words Thaksin is an observer from Dubai. All Thai citizens have a right to be heard.
He is a boogey man. He is the one stirring this up, and nobody can argue with that.
Whether Mr. T is PM or somebody else, elections here are a joke. Vote buying, corruption, etc. Employed by all sides.
Mr. T could have avoided this mess several times in the past. But felt he was above it all and didn't have to. He is paying the price now, as he should. If he came back to Thailand in the beginning of this mess, I bet he wouldn't even have gone to jail...and he would still have most of his cash. His choice.
Thailand has an elected government. Many like the current government. And I know of NO government in the world where everybody "likes" their current government. But you don't see them threatening violence just to get rid of them...very 3rd world...
Posted 2010-03-12 08:41:07
One more rational and understandable summary from 'The Nation'. Is it just me or Nation does have some quality journalists but seldom feature?
Interesting to hear a few comments from people of North east. For many of them, Thaksin is messiah. They all talk fondly about what he has done for their community. Building hospitals, schools ... I interrupted these people and asked them, if there was one built in their area and the answer was shocking 'No'. My next question to them was have they seen one elsewhere and once again the answer was shocking 'No'. They 'knew' he has done it. Because thats what the propaganda says and they want to believe. They also believe because for once someone actually gave them money. Cash. Once received, they are willing to believe anything and defend it.
Me as a foreigner, of course, won't have any access to real information and I find asking around is futile. Most of the time it's hear say. No first hand information. However, I must mention that if a man is able to influence and create such a turmoil and widen the divide within a society, then there is definitely something more than money involved. In no way I am taking a side here. I am just thinking aloud. Masses can't be simply mobilized on power of money. Not for so long and for so many times. There has to be something more.
The 'save' me thing didn't go well. Should he not be saying 'save the Country'. Thailand is heading for serious water shortage. Thailand needs to come together at this moment.
Just another of my two satangs worth view. 
<--- I love this emoticon.
Posted 2010-03-12 09:08:03
Thaksin did several things that villagers in Issan really liked. He gave each village 1 or 2 million baht. They then lended that to whoever was in need. Interest was paid back to the village...but I am not sure if interest had to be paid back to the gov or Mr. T? Also, he setup a program where you could borrow 40k or 50k baht to buy a cow. You paid like 2k baht a year for interest.
Back then cows were very valuable (no so much today). So, some folks really did well with this. Others abused it and just bought a scooter...or drank it all. But the end result was they loved him for that.
He also did the 30 baht medical program (with all it's pros and cons). For many, this was a very big deal.
It is also proven that the poor really did get a boost while he was in office. Not sure if that was directly because of him, or just because the world economy was jamming then. But poverty did decrease under Mr. T.
I am also not a fan, but he is a very smart man. Sad he had to have it end this way...he could have done so much to help this country and yet focused on increasing his own wealth...and his circle of friends. Corruption, in the end, got him...
#21
gotlost
Posted 2010-03-12 09:09:29
The only way that he will be saved is if he meets Oral Roberts and he passed away. 
Posted 2010-03-12 09:33:36
From what I have read in the Bangkok Post
The present Government have tried to keep up the good work already started in Issan
But every time they try to do something the Red shirts chase the Government representative out
It would not be good for the Red Shirt cause if the Government where allowed to help the poor people in the North
Posted 2010-03-12 09:39:31
apex2000, on 2010-03-12 07:59:27, said: jdinasia, on 2010-03-12 01:02:50, said: But the "reds" on here would have us believe that this weekends attempt to paralyze BKK is NOT about Thaksin. ...
yeah right
Well, you got that wrong! And, I'm not a 'red' - just an interested observer who has lived in the LoS for nearly 20 years.
What people want is justice, freedom of speech, one law for all, etc.
Thaksin is finished in my opinion, and democracy never even got started in Thailand.
A government that came about following a coup is NOT a democratically-elected government.
This country needs a UN-supervised general election with total transparency (sic), which will prove what the people of this country wants.
Whoever 'loses' should then shut up and get on with their lives.
All this bickering is destroying this country, which is such a shame.
You're right. The people protesting believe that this protest is about giving a voice and support to the poor. The red leaders are singing a different tune and making this protest all about Thaksin.
"A government that came about following a coup is NOT a democratically-elected government."
... does that mean that the PPP was not democratically elected?
... does that mean that no government can be democratically elected, since all elections will be after a coup?
You have to draw the line in the sand somewhere and move forward. The 2007 elections may not have been democratic (if you listen to some people), having been organised by the CNS. But it was a step forward.
A lot of people in Thailand don't understand what democracy is, otherwise they wouldn't have accepted bribes to vote for particular parties (and before you - not apex, everyone - start with "they did it too", I mean all sides).
The Yellow idea of "appointing" MPs is crap too. There needs to be an education campaign to tell people how this is supposed to work. People have to feel like they are voting for a democratic government. The army need to step away from politics and just be there to protect the country and the people.
The courts have to be seen to be fair (IMO, with their explanations in recent court cases have been clear and transparent). The slow movement of some cases is NOT the fault of the judges, but that has to be fixed and be more transparent.
There are elections scheduled for 2011. Thailand has to make sure these are free (not bribes) and fair (everyone can campaign freely).
Posted 2010-03-12 09:42:29
apex2000, on 2010-03-12 07:59:27, said: jdinasia, on 2010-03-12 01:02:50, said: But the "reds" on here would have us believe that this weekends attempt to paralyze BKK is NOT about Thaksin. ...
yeah right
Well, you got that wrong! And, I'm not a 'red' - just an interested observer who has lived in the LoS for nearly 20 years.
What people want is justice, freedom of speech, one law for all, etc.
Thaksin is finished in my opinion, and democracy never even got started in Thailand.
A government that came about following a coup is NOT a democratically-elected government.
This country needs a UN-supervised general election with total transparency (sic), which will prove what the people of this country wants.
Whoever 'loses' should then shut up and get on with their lives.
All this bickering is destroying this country, which is such a shame.
You are wrong. This government had nothing to do with the coup. The Peua Thai lost some of its members to the opposition and no longer had a majority. The coalition formed is exactly the way numerous prime ministers have come to power. You obviously are ignorant of the democratic process. Even in other democracies it is often not the party with the most seats that form a government. It is a coalition of smaller parties that sometimes form governments. In many Europen countries the Communist party had the most seats but the coalitions against them formed the government. Abhisit has every right morally and legally to lead the country and is the best hope for Thailand.
Posted 2010-03-12 11:11:28
antony77, on 2010-03-12 10:42:46, said: apex2000, on 2010-03-12 07:59:27, said: jdinasia, on 2010-03-12 01:02:50, said: But the "reds" on here would have us believe that this weekends attempt to paralyze BKK is NOT about Thaksin. ...
yeah right
Well, you got that wrong! And, I'm not a 'red' - just an interested observer who has lived in the LoS for nearly 20 years.
What people want is justice, freedom of speech, one law for all, etc.
Thaksin is finished in my opinion, and democracy never even got started in Thailand.
A government that came about following a coup is NOT a democratically-elected government.
This country needs a UN-supervised general election with total transparency (sic), which will prove what the people of this country wants.
Whoever 'loses' should then shut up and get on with their lives.
All this bickering is destroying this country, which is such a shame.
You are wrong. This government had nothing to do with the coup. The Peua Thai lost some of its members to the opposition and no longer had a majority. The coalition formed is exactly the way numerous prime ministers have come to power. You obviously are ignorant of the democratic process. Even in other democracies it is often not the party with the most seats that form a government. It is a coalition of smaller parties that sometimes form governments. In many Europen countries the Communist party had the most seats but the coalitions against them formed the government. Abhisit has every right morally and legally to lead the country and is the best hope for Thailand.
At last
Someone who knows how things work in politics
If there is o be an election next year
why not take this time to get some decent candidates and win at the ballot box
This is called DEMOCRACY
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