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96 replies to this topic
#76
chiang mai
Ex Member Posted 2010-03-23 08:47:06
edit, I removed post, cant be bothered with the non believers, re BOT intervention. It's difficult to know from that statement Gobbledoc exactly what you think on this subject, you started so may as well finish! #77
Gobbledoc
Senior Member Posted 2010-03-23 09:35:25
I tottaly agree with CM reply to this post.
As of 12 Mar 131.4B USD in usable FX reserves, they do use it, even as recently as last Friday the BOT made a public statement saying they regularly intervene in the Baht from the BOT them selves...... Any serous investor interested in Thai will get hourly updates on the BOT intervention activities in the FX market for the Baht.
It is incredible that you folks thing the BOT can "control" the exchange rate of the baht. Economics 101 or a short course on currencies would enlighten you obviously over-inflated ideas of Thai power in that arena. The markets call the shots. Thailand and the BOT don't have enough reserves to buy and sell any quantity of currencies to cause a shift up nor down. Dream on. The answer is not Thailand's actions but the devaluation of the power currencies , The US DOLLAR and EURO, due to gross overspending and debt. Thailand, even though it too has economic woes, s just too insignificant a player in GDP, vs debt, that it has not felt the pressure against its baht. Lucky for Thailand. Your strong baht is killing my finances but that too shall pass from normal fluctuations and shifts. Thailands non-stop, head in the sand, non-competitive practices, will at some point cause loss of market share in many areas and the rise of stock in it's neighbors economy. You simply don't understand that the BOT has been intervening to weaken their currency and this is easily within their capabilities - but regardless, your post is far too arrogant to warrant any further explanation from me on this subject. #78
Abrak
Platinum Member Posted 2010-03-23 16:00:08
It's tempting to look at the issue of the $60/70 billion with the benefit of hindsight and of course if we do that we can now see that it was perhaps not the most cost effective strategy, but if we go back in time and look at the problem from a "now" perspective I think the approach that was adopted stands up to the test of reasonableness. In light of the knowledge that their currency was going to strengthen, exports were at risk and the degree of recovery in the global recovery uncertain, taking pre-emptive action that cost 60/70 billion was probably not a wholly bad idea, actually I think it was probably a substantially risk averse one. Does that strategy delay the inevitable? Well yes, to some degree but things have now moved on and the risk picture is somewhat different, Thai GDP has improved, exports are on a more positive footing and Chinese growth is more solid, so allowing the inevitable now is arguably a better approach than doing so whilst the economic picture was fuzzy. Here is just one. I am not a genius but all the hedge funds took advantage. http://www.thaivisa....44#entry3154044 Think of it as an investment trade. It takes stronger fundamentals, stricter monetary policy and ever increasing amounts of money to suppress the appreciation, so you long until they are forced to appreciate. You would sack the guy for shorting that. And Tarisa was told it was going to end in tears at least 2 months before this post. If you dont want your currency to appreciate at least try and make it less attractive rather than more. And you say that 'it was easily within the BoT's limits to weaken the currency.' well it was but not through intervention. You have strong fundamentals, an undervalued currency, tight monetary policy and a CB with a US$60bn baht short. This is a speculators wet dream. At US$140bn of reserves the appreciation will be expensive and sterilization costs enormous. To things happen (1) the costs keep rising (and any currency competitive becomes less certain) and (2) the speculative capital flows will increase exponentially. #79
lovelomsak
Senior Member Posted 2010-03-25 08:19:32
The way I see it China is the country driving the bus for Asian money values. They do this with the yuan value.
BOC Governor Mark Carney has it right and here is quote from yahoo.ca today quote Carney is the second Canadian policy-maker in as many days to warn about the devalued yuan. On Tuesday, Finance Minister Jim Flaherty said Canada will push the issue at the upcoming G20 meetings in Toronto in June. A revaluation of the yuan would likely lead to adjustments in other fixed currencies in Asia, economists said. Unquote Could Thailand currencies be affected? I strongly think so. I feel to understand what is happening with Thai baht we have to realize their are roque ways of taking financial power> After all governments are just big business and China has shown through its history their big business doesnot pay attention to foreign rules or ways of doing things. They make their own rules and plan accordingly. Its all in the timing. Mark my words about Thailand becoming the brokers for China. Edited by lovelomsak, 2010-03-25 08:20:28. #80
pooket
Advanced Member Posted 2010-03-25 13:26:30
If Vietnam has a weak Dong, maybe they should eat more red meat.
 Seriously, this article goes against everything I've been reading about Asian currency and the dollar. Thailand is so small, there is NOTHING they can do that will seriously impact the strength of the baht. #81
spirit47
Advanced Member Posted 2010-04-05 19:05:53
Thai Baht is not necessarily strong, but other currencies are displaying weakness. Watch for the sovereign debt crisis that is brewing in Europe and will eventually hit the US. All fiat paper currencies are in a race to devalue against each other which inevitably leads to the value of the only true currency at a minimum maintaining its value ...i.e. Gold Bullion That's right... Now it's time to change, I hope so, the Euro-Bath chart is on a strong resistant at 43, the dollar shows a resistant point too, but not so strong at 30. Whatever you think about Chartanalysis, it works because a lot of professionals use Charts for rulings... So I look frindly into the future and my income will be much more in the next months. You see in this thread that fundamentals not able to explain what happens. The big-boys making the game, maybe they push sometimes stronger to make more money by higher risk. 80% that the Euro on his deepest point now... Don't need to read newpaper, most of you make it very difficult, look at the markets and the charts, don't explain with brain, it not works... #82
Gambles
Senior Member Posted 2010-04-06 07:24:55
It's widely accepted that financial intervention in liquid currencies generally has little market impact. It's believed by many people but still not definitively known (except to a few people on this thread!!!) just how much consistent, long-term impact the likes of BoT can have on their currencies.
But that is relative impact. At the moment the Baht is in a room full of 800Lb gorillas: How much further can Sterling fall against USD How much further can Euro fall? When will AUD fall? Where the heck is Yen headed? After all of the above are answered - how far will the Dollar fall from the nosebleed heights at which it finds itself? and the biggest Gorilla of all - what will PBoC do with RMB? Global Markets Asia recently suggested a managed currency peg for the Baht - you can't have full market free float without a huge cost attached if the biggest regional currency and potentially the biggest global currency aren't playing the same game with the same rules. Everyone wants a weaker currency but only China currently has this figured - hence western frustration at being outsmarted so far. #83
ray23
Platinum Member Posted 2010-04-06 08:18:08
Well currently it is believed that China actually wants to increase the value, to hedge inflation. How that is going to effect the other local currencies ?
#84
scotbeve
Super Member Posted 2010-04-06 10:18:41
Thai Baht is not necessarily strong, but other currencies are displaying weakness. Watch for the sovereign debt crisis that is brewing in Europe and will eventually hit the US. All fiat paper currencies are in a race to devalue against each other which inevitably leads to the value of the only true currency at a minimum maintaining its value ...i.e. Gold Bullion That's right... Now it's time to change, I hope so, the Euro-Bath chart is on a strong resistant at 43, the dollar shows a resistant point too, but not so strong at 30. Whatever you think about Chartanalysis, it works because a lot of professionals use Charts for rulings... So I look frindly into the future and my income will be much more in the next months. You see in this thread that fundamentals not able to explain what happens. The big-boys making the game, maybe they push sometimes stronger to make more money by higher risk. 80% that the Euro on his deepest point now... 38 - 40 baht would seem realistic. Methinks (IMHO) someone higher up may be shoring up the baht until coffers run low. Any other opinions ? #85
Gambles
Senior Member Posted 2010-04-06 15:24:24
Well currently it is believed that China actually wants to increase the value, to hedge inflation. How that is going to effect the other local currencies ? I don't think tooo many people believe that China may cave to pressure - revalue upwards by 5-10% and the gradually claw much of that back in barely perceptible daily moves - and then again China may just stick up 2 fingers if Congressmen and Senators don't stop yapping #86
Gambles
Senior Member Posted 2010-04-06 15:26:42
Thai Baht is not necessarily strong, but other currencies are displaying weakness. Watch for the sovereign debt crisis that is brewing in Europe and will eventually hit the US. All fiat paper currencies are in a race to devalue against each other which inevitably leads to the value of the only true currency at a minimum maintaining its value ...i.e. Gold Bullion That's right... Now it's time to change, I hope so, the Euro-Bath chart is on a strong resistant at 43, the dollar shows a resistant point too, but not so strong at 30. Whatever you think about Chartanalysis, it works because a lot of professionals use Charts for rulings... So I look frindly into the future and my income will be much more in the next months. You see in this thread that fundamentals not able to explain what happens. The big-boys making the game, maybe they push sometimes stronger to make more money by higher risk. 80% that the Euro on his deepest point now... 38 - 40 baht would seem realistic. Methinks (IMHO) someone higher up may be shoring up the baht until coffers run low. Any other opinions ? #87
Naam
Star Member Posted 2010-04-06 16:03:20
Euro? -I'd be looking for well below 35 in time before Euro works out its long term direction 
Edited by Naam, 2010-04-06 16:07:11. #88
JaoPaw
Newbie Posted 2010-04-06 17:28:46
What does the lord have to do with this? wanke_r!
Euro? -I'd be looking for well below 35 in time before Euro works out its long term direction #89
ray23
Platinum Member Posted 2010-04-06 17:30:10
Well currently it is believed that China actually wants to increase the value, to hedge inflation. How that is going to effect the other local currencies ? I don't think tooo many people believe that China may cave to pressure - revalue upwards by 5-10% and the gradually claw much of that back in barely perceptible daily moves - and then again China may just stick up 2 fingers if Congressmen and Senators don't stop yapping Ya I think that statement was made to let them save face rather then caving into pressure. #90
SaamBaht
Advanced Member Posted 2010-04-07 15:45:01
Based on P/E, the SET remains a strong buy at this time, despite its run up.
#91
Naam
Star Member Posted 2010-04-07 15:54:41
What does the lord have to do with this? wanke_r! #92
ray23
Platinum Member Posted 2010-04-07 17:18:00
Amazing Thailand protesters enter the seat of government. The Government escapes over a back wall with ladders. The baht got Stronger and the Stock market had a great day
 Army also put out statement to day that they will no harm Thai people. I would say an election will not be far away. Time to stock up yellow shirts for sale. All this lead one to believe that the world is simply numb to protests in Thailand. So much for my theory of a drop in the market 
#93
Gambles
Senior Member Posted 2010-04-08 08:48:54
Well currently it is believed that China actually wants to increase the value, to hedge inflation. How that is going to effect the other local currencies ? I don't think tooo many people believe that China may cave to pressure - revalue upwards by 5-10% and the gradually claw much of that back in barely perceptible daily moves - and then again China may just stick up 2 fingers if Congressmen and Senators don't stop yapping Ya I think that statement was made to let them save face rather then caving into pressure. seems like the message is getting through and US politicians are now backing off somewhat #94
Gambles
Senior Member Posted 2010-04-08 09:38:53
What does the lord have to do with this? wanke_r! and that kind of well-thought intellectual argument is probably the best long-term support that Euro now has without blowing own trumpets, we've been pretty well spot on with our published Euro forecasts since launch and caught the upsides but now I see the balance tipped well to the downside medium to longer term against Asian currencies Edited by Gambles, 2010-04-08 09:40:04. #95
shawndoc
Senior Member Posted 2010-04-08 09:42:08
Amazing Thailand protesters enter the seat of government. The Government escapes over a back wall with ladders. The baht got Stronger and the Stock market had a great day Sure, why not? The protests are limited to a small geographic area and aren't disrupting any of the factories in rural area, and if you have PMs climbing fences to escape protesters you know they aren't going to be implementing any new laws that will hurt business or to investigate any businesses who might be violating labor/environmental laws. Sounds like a perfect storm for business people if you ask me. 
#96
ray23
Platinum Member Posted 2010-04-08 17:55:50
Well the market dropped today, but so did the states on sale orders people taking profits. Baht got stronger yet. Started the morning at 32.41 closed at 32.27
http://www.nationmul...t-30126724.html Edited by ray23, 2010-04-08 18:08:38. #97
BEENTHEREDONETHAT
Platinum Member Posted 2010-04-08 18:06:09
What does the lord have to do with this? wanke_r! Quote |
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