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[lannarebirth]

Jerrytheyoung, on 2010-03-23 22:54:17, said:

But if Chavalit is on the point to succeed, the probability of a coup increases, is not it?

I wouldn't think so.  Please explain your reasoning.

[Insight]

Jerrytheyoung, on 2010-03-23 21:54:17, said:

But if Chavalit is on the point to succeed, the probability of a coup increases, is not it?

Those two words in the same sentence?

Edited by Insight, 2010-03-23 22:06:32.

[Jerrytheyoung]

lannarebirth, on 2010-03-23 22:56:06, said:

Jerrytheyoung, on 2010-03-23 22:54:17, said:

But if Chavalit is on the point to succeed, the probability of a coup increases, is not it?

I wouldn't think so.  Please explain your reasoning.

As everybody supposes, Chavalt is negotiating with some small parties and may destroy the coalition by finding some allies for taking over the Parliament. The "elite" and the Democrats will not appreciate the come back of the reds to Affairs.
If the situation is deemed dangerous by democrats and/or Elite then a coup is a possible scenario before Chavalit succeed to change the majority.

[animatic]

Insight, on 2010-03-23 22:06:04, said:

Jerrytheyoung, on 2010-03-23 21:54:17, said:

But if Chavalit is on the point to succeed, the probability of a coup increases, is not it?

Those two words in the same sentence?

LOL he makes the point.
Chavalit is not noted for getting the job done without ... hiccups.
He is the avuncular uncle you like to talk with, but never buy his used car from.

[way2muchcoffee]

Jerrytheyoung, on 2010-03-23 21:54:17, said:

But if Chavalit is on the point to succeed, the probability of a coup increases, is not it?

Expound please.  I have no idea what you are driving at.

[Insight]

I doubt the significance of Chavalit having the door slammed on him today will be lost on the people he's attempting to influence. Will be interesting to see if he still does.

[Thai at Heart]

Insight, on 2010-03-23 15:18:23, said:

I doubt the significance of Chavalit having the door slammed on him today will be lost on the people he's attempting to influence. Will be interesting to see if he still does.

A rather public slap in the face indeed, all very un-Thai in reality.

I wouldn't quite write Chavalit off completely, but the odds that he can pull a rabbit out of the hat and get someone to move away from the coalition must be pretty slim.

Despite being a General (a badge of honour I guess), how much pull did or does he have in the army?  I would guess today very little.

[lannarebirth]

Thai at Heart, on 2010-03-23 22:21:44, said:

Insight, on 2010-03-23 15:18:23, said:

I doubt the significance of Chavalit having the door slammed on him today will be lost on the people he's attempting to influence. Will be interesting to see if he still does.

A rather public slap in the face indeed, all very un-Thai in reality.

I wouldn't quite write Chavalit off completely, but the odds that he can pull a rabbit out of the hat and get someone to move away from the coalition must be pretty slim.

Despite being a General (a badge of honour I guess), how much pull did or does he have in the army? I would guess today very little.

Well, there are several thousand Thai generals, both active and retired.  I wouldn't put too much stock in that carrying any weight if I were you.

[ding]

geovalin, on 2010-03-22 09:07:41, said:

Mitker, on 2010-03-22 02:53:38, said:

Bring me any red shirt able to prove he/she knows Exim is not an exotic dish and Temasek a DIY brand and I will start to listen to him/her.
Until then, I just see them as manipulated folks serving the cause of a greedy, dictator-to-be billionaire on the run. They simply do not understand the game they are used for.
My factory staff is tuned all day long on a red shirts radio. Speechs would make you feel like you were listening to a Rwandese radio days before it went ugly.

Not good to insult the people.

By the way, when we, French, made the revolution in 1789, I'm pretty sure that some wise men like you told "the populace will never be able to manage the country". But we did! With difficulties yes but France is now a proud country with a stable government.
Same in USA when they expelled the British.

This is not that, however.  It's the complete opposite, in fact. The Yellows overthrew the rich and powerful oligarch who used the country to enrich himself and grab more power.

[Thai at Heart]

lannarebirth, on 2010-03-23 15:27:34, said:

Thai at Heart, on 2010-03-23 22:21:44, said:

Insight, on 2010-03-23 15:18:23, said:

I doubt the significance of Chavalit having the door slammed on him today will be lost on the people he's attempting to influence. Will be interesting to see if he still does.

A rather public slap in the face indeed, all very un-Thai in reality.

I wouldn't quite write Chavalit off completely, but the odds that he can pull a rabbit out of the hat and get someone to move away from the coalition must be pretty slim.

Despite being a General (a badge of honour I guess), how much pull did or does he have in the army? I would guess today very little.

Well, there are several thousand Thai generals, both active and retired.  I wouldn't put too much stock in that carrying any weight if I were you.

Fortunately not all several thousand of them have been PM yet.  I was asking if anyone knew how much pull he still had, not implying that he had any other than saying "very little".

So did you answer from a point of knowledge or derision?

[lannarebirth]

Thai at Heart, on 2010-03-23 23:47:56, said:

lannarebirth, on 2010-03-23 15:27:34, said:

Thai at Heart, on 2010-03-23 22:21:44, said:

Insight, on 2010-03-23 15:18:23, said:

I doubt the significance of Chavalit having the door slammed on him today will be lost on the people he's attempting to influence. Will be interesting to see if he still does.

A rather public slap in the face indeed, all very un-Thai in reality.

I wouldn't quite write Chavalit off completely, but the odds that he can pull a rabbit out of the hat and get someone to move away from the coalition must be pretty slim.

Despite being a General (a badge of honour I guess), how much pull did or does he have in the army? I would guess today very little.

Well, there are several thousand Thai generals, both active and retired. I wouldn't put too much stock in that carrying any weight if I were you.

Fortunately not all several thousand of them have been PM yet. I was asking if anyone knew how much pull he still had, not implying that he had any other than saying "very little".

So did you answer from a point of knowledge or derision?

Neither.  I know half a dozen or more Thai generals.  They're all just happy to get that check each month.  They try to sell influence occasionally, but that's not a big earner.

[ballpoint]

Thai at Heart, on 2010-03-23 21:16:43, said:

So where does that leave the accusation that in the rural areas parties buy votes? Presumably, if Thaksin wanted to smash Newin's vote all he would have to do is write blank cheques and buy it? That is playing devils advocate, but it suggests as Hammered mentioned earlier, there is a stronger tie than just money. Then I would suggest that the main parties grow up and consistently show some cojones and leave Bumjaithai prostitute ass in opposition next time. Starve the beggars out.

It isn't as though Newin can threaten whole constituencies with assassination if they don't vote for him. As for PPP/PTP/TRT apologies, I forget that this is the land of sequels when it comes to political parties. They are worse than the hydra, you cut off one head and two come back but with a different set of initials. Too many t's and nationalistic p's.

Newin is an odd case, along with Banharn.  Ask yourself why, when the complete NAP, including Chavalit and Chalerm, and other parties, were bought out by Thaksin, did these two choose to keep their blocs of controlled MP's isolated in the CTP?  They would rather play the role of king maker, waiting to see the lie of the land before choosing an alliance.  Thaksin did throw money at them.  They stuck with him until the 2006 election debacle, at which time they threw their hat in with the Democrat's boycot.  Post 2007 election they sided with Samak, heading for the money, until their party was dissolved and they went over to the Democrats, in their separate ways this time, but again staying in government.  Maybe collecting a wad of cash on the way, maybe not.  Those allegations have never been proved, but knowing Newin, definitely getting something out of it.  You can either join one of the current big two; Democrats or PTP, and risk being in the opposition, or you can float inbetween and always be in government.

It may surprise you to know that in this part of Buri Ram, which is definitely Newin territory, he doesn't do a lot of vote buying.  Maybe a bottle or two of fish sauce, or a couple of pairs of sandals for their "loyalty".  Over the years he has perfected the art of populist politics to perfection (I suppose that's just a different form of vote buying though, albeit one that's more in line with the west), and is treated like royalty by the local farmers.  I don't judge the popularity of the current parties by road side billboards, any one can pay for one of those, but rather by shops and houses displaying their stickers and banner.  BJT ones are all over the villages around me.  However, I have yet to see a single PTP one.  And his "Rao puen Newin puen rao" (We're friends of Newin's, Newin's friend's with us) T-shirts were the costume of choice for the upwardly mobile rice farmer and buffalo herder a year or so back, until they all rotted away, usually while still being worn.  He didn't get to where he is by being a nice guy though.  And he's not about to give up what he has.  Very similar to Thaksin in that respect.  Believe me, I know the guy.  I wouldn't be surprised if people took money to vote for the PTP, but still voted for his candidate.   And, as I said in my previous post, I also wouldn't be in the least surprised to hear of the vote buyer's bodies being found at the side of the road, or not found at all.   Not condoning it.  I know him, but don't like him, and he's long overdue a criminal charge for his role in the bird flu cover up, amongst other crimes, but that's the way he is.  And that's the way it is in Isaan politics.

Edited by ballpoint, 2010-03-23 23:16:18.

[animatic]

I think Chavalits pull is directly related to memories of how much money
was made or lost, by his negotiating corespondents, when as  Prime Minister Chavalit
he presided over causing the 1997 Asian Tiger Economic Crash that left thousands insolvent.

PS
a certain Under Secretary of government, T. Shinawatra, happened to oh so 'luckily'
hedge ALL his baht currencies, and profited grqandly at the bahts 'surprise devaluation.'..
unlike 95% pf business people in the ASEAN region.

[Thai at Heart]

animatic, on 2010-03-23 16:19:27, said:

I think Chavalits pull is directly related to memories of how much money
was made or lost, by his negotiating corespondents, when as  Prime Minister Chavalit
he presided over causing the 1997 Asian Tiger Economic Crash that left thousands insolvent.

PS
a certain Under Secretary of government, T. Shinawatra, happened to oh so 'luckily'
hedge ALL his baht currencies, and profited grqandly at the bahts 'surprise devaluation.'..
unlike 95% pf business people in the ASEAN region.

A nice story, which I first heard over 10 years ago, and which I have never had substantiated.

And if it's true, I somehow doubt that he would have been the only one to be tipped off.

[moresomekl]

Well it seems no coup last night , LOL .

Suppose everyone here heard about that story about Thaksin promoting violence according to  US NSA intercept of his phone discussions . Even the US start to be pissed with the man . If he thinks he can avoid jail if he shows his ass at Suvarnabhumi , he must have smoked something thats not  Philip Morris standard issue  .

Yes saw some of the programs of Mr Abhisit . Seems the PM is  honest , very anti-corruption , and with a good program on free education for all thais until 15 , even a reasonable tax on the land seems like a good way to finance it all , provided those with very small plots get some deduction    . Education is the key in the countryside  , secund some microcredits for the rurals to start some small business . Hardly can see how my gf could have educated her two daughters , without my support for last 11 years .She is not very supportive of that Thaskin  character  , she is from  central Thailand . Which makes me think that the universal support of the billionaire would be  Robin Hood by the rural masses is regional rather then national . Thaksin popular with all the rurals seems like another myth i guess

Well Abhisit seems to be doing  a good job  wonder if he will be abble to implement it if some stupid opportunist politician wreck his coalition (not to mention vested interests) . But thats the thai system and no one wants to hear my rambling about a need to modify the system for some continuity in the post of PM with checks and balances .

Good day

[moresomekl]

animatic, on 2010-03-23 22:29:02, said:

moresomekl, on 2010-03-23 20:44:04, said:

anotherpeter, on 2010-03-23 21:12:58, said:

moresomekl, on 2010-03-23 17:53:08, said:

I said COULD , not WILL . Please ... .
Yes everywhere in the wolrld is like Australia , a MP can disagree with his party on some particular piece
of legislation and vote against it . Why not ? Here it is not the same case .

But that's what I'm trying to explain. It is basically the same case. They use the same system as Australia and UK.

Could ... will ... whatever ... the point is, if the government COULD fall every 10 days, then using your logic, you COULD have elections every 10 days instead.

OK fine . Here one possible scenario
1) Chavalit or whichever smaller party (maybe paid by Thaksin) defects to the PTP soon .
2) PTP comes in power right ?
3) If PTP do then a early general election AND PTP win then they dont need Thaksin , if they loose
, same Thaksin out .
Same same and good .
But you say no need for election right , so no election ok fine
4) PTP coalition shaky , realise that they cant win at the next general election without Thaksin
4) PTP calls back Thaksin

Good ?

Might have a coup at any of those points

Good ?

Well other than the fact Chavalit is ALREADY in PTP and so won't defect to PTP...
He was totally sillent all week, and then springs into action alleging his great mediator skills.

But Prem staff says he was too sick to see him,
until Chavalit reports this publicly,
and then Prems people say, 'what is he talking about'.
Oops. Can't even get into the office...

And he is NOW trying to talk OTHER parties into defecting... wonderful mediation efforts.
Look the boss offers more money!!! He told me so!!!

Yes am sorry some confusion  . Chavalit has been around for long time , he was there already when i visited Thailand first time back in 1988 . Did'nt really follow his latest escapades .
You met him ? Yes the money makes sense must be a lot of it  else why . Thaksin subject  is a political killer , even the BBC reported that the red shirts seem to tone down their support for the self declared  saviour of the masses . Perhaps the red shirt  visit to BKK is not that much a bad thing , opened some eyes amongst the red . As we say in France , "les voyages forment la jeunesse" .

[Publicus]

LindsayBKK, on 2010-03-23 12:28:09, said:

When is a 'protest march' riding motorbikes around the streets of Bangkok?
I think they need to told they are just hooligans on bikes!
And why are most of them young Thai mafia looking guys?
Is that the image they are trying to show off?

Watching China TV they showed blood on gates & rubbish that the red group has left behind
in their 'protest'. Who pays for all the clean up? The Government of course.
Send the red group a bill.

The People's Republic of China leadership in Beijing is watching Thailand closely. With half the PRC population living in the countryside on less than USD $2 a day, the red leaders up there know they could be watching their future right here in Thailand these past several years.

[Nuchanart]

Publicus, on 2010-03-25 21:15:47, said:

LindsayBKK, on 2010-03-23 12:28:09, said:

When is a 'protest march' riding motorbikes around the streets of Bangkok?
I think they need to told they are just hooligans on bikes!
And why are most of them young Thai mafia looking guys?
Is that the image they are trying to show off?

Watching China TV they showed blood on gates & rubbish that the red group has left behind
in their 'protest'. Who pays for all the clean up? The Government of course.
Send the red group a bill.

The People's Republic of China leadership in Beijing is watching Thailand closely. With half the PRC population living in the countryside on less than USD $2 a day, the red leaders up there know they could be watching their future right here in Thailand these past several years.

You mean capture Peking Airport for 9 days?

[WAERTH]

Publicus, on 2010-03-25 21:15:47, said:

The People's Republic of China leadership in Beijing is watching Thailand closely. With half the PRC population living in the countryside on less than USD $2 a day, the red leaders up there know they could be watching their future right here in Thailand these past several years.

The Chinese government would have opened fire on the protestors before they even came this far ....... It is funny that both call themselves "People's" isn't it?

W

[Publicus]

The People's Republic of China took a month and more in 1989 to send in the tanks against the democracy demonstrators in Tienaman Square, but one reason it took so long was that the uni students and so many others from around the country who traveled great distances by super slow trains to join them were supported by so many citizens of Beijing, who themselves stopped the army several times when the army attempted to move in before its final successful attempt. (It was the ominous and grim report of the mayor of Beijing concerning the citizenry of Beijing to Deng Xiao Peng that prompted Deng to order the massacre of anybody and everybody in the square and in the city streets who were standing in the way of the People's "Liberation" Army trying to move into the square.)

Thailand has had its lesser scale Tienamen moments, particulary in 1973 and in 1976 - also somewhat in 1991 - but there's been nothing on the scale or intensity of the 1989 massacre. The time of the PRC to be today's Thailand is coming. The question is when. The magnitude of the scale of it in the PRC, by sheer numbers of peasants, is the nightmare of the tyrants in Beijing.

A major reason the Sino-Thai Thaksin is unwelcome in the PRC is that his presence there would be too suggestive of the danger staring the Beijing tyrants in their face anytime attention would be called to their otherwise fellow tyrant of Thailand. Maybe Thaksin might consider going to the PRC to organize the rural poor there. It certainly would result in Thailand being relieved of its Thaksin probelm with finality.