Please log in to reply 19 replies to this topic

[HansBlinkers]

Do you think it will get better before the end of the year?


I am planing on retuning in November but now I'm seriously thinking about staying put now. It's depressing

[LaoPo]

Baht 39.84 to 1 Euro now.

A year ago it was around Baht 50 to the Euro; 20 % off now.

Very depressing indeed and it will cost Thailand great numbers of tourists.


LaoPo

[L&J]

The appreciation of the Thai baht against the western currencies is not going
to be reversed-IMHO- as the western economies aren't going to work themselves
out of the Great Recession for many years. The policy of deficit spending to
stimulate their economies will only give strength to the baht.

What that means for Thailand isn't necessarily positive as it depends on exports
which will only get more and more expensive in the west and there will fewer investment
projects coming from the west. Though those factors will be mitigated by increases coming
from China and Japan who may eventually end up owning Thailand.

     Tourism is going to be hurt further which will mostly impact the poor people who
work in that sector. Forget Thai politics as nothing that happens here seems to have
any effect on the baht. Possibly the only positive for us is that fuel prices should not go up as the peg against the USD is positive for the baht.

Everything however will hit the fan someday when the Chinese yuan becomes an alternative
international standard. In twenty years this will be a very different world.

[gotlost]

30.93 USD   47.92 GBP    39.26 EUR:angry:

[sbk]

moving to the Banking/Finance forum as it is not Chiang Mai related

[elektrified]

L&J, on 2010-08-28 07:40:27, said:

The appreciation of the Thai baht against the western currencies is not going
to be reversed-IMHO- as the western economies aren't going to work themselves
out of the Great Recession for many years. The policy of deficit spending to
stimulate their economies will only give strength to the baht.

What that means for Thailand isn't necessarily positive as it depends on exports
which will only get more and more expensive in the west and there will fewer investment
projects coming from the west. Though those factors will be mitigated by increases coming
from China and Japan who may eventually end up owning Thailand.

     Tourism is going to be hurt further which will mostly impact the poor people who
work in that sector. Forget Thai politics as nothing that happens here seems to have
any effect on the baht. Possibly the only positive for us is that fuel prices should not go up as the peg against the USD is positive for the baht.

Everything however will hit the fan someday when the Chinese yuan becomes an alternative
international standard. In twenty years this will be a very different world.

I agree with this post in its entirety.

[crgram]

L&J, on 2010-08-28 07:40:27, said:

The appreciation of the Thai baht against the western currencies is not going
to be reversed-IMHO- as the western economies aren't going to work themselves
out of the Great Recession for many years. The policy of deficit spending to
stimulate their economies will only give strength to the baht.

What that means for Thailand isn't necessarily positive as it depends on exports
which will only get more and more expensive in the west and there will fewer investment
projects coming from the west. Though those factors will be mitigated by increases coming
from China and Japan who may eventually end up owning Thailand.

Tourism is going to be hurt further which will mostly impact the poor people who
work in that sector. Forget Thai politics as nothing that happens here seems to have
any effect on the baht. Possibly the only positive for us is that fuel prices should not go up as the peg against the USD is positive for the baht.

Everything however will hit the fan someday when the Chinese yuan becomes an alternative
international standard. In twenty years this will be a very different world.

I agree for the most part as well.  Not to quibble though, but the west is not in recession, great or otherwise.  The economies are just growing so slowly it will take quite some time to work out the whole created in 2007/8.  The massive deficit spending is certainly playing a big part in the exchange rate.  The odd thing to me is the JPY strength, Japans economy is as bad as Europe or the US.  Bound to be killing their exports....

cr

[lazygourmet]

Euro is just back to its normal rate when it went out in 2002.

2001-12-31   December 31, Monday   39.378 THB     2002-01-02   January 02, Wednesday   39.9169 THB     2002-01-03   January 03, Thursday   39.6547 THB     2002-01-04   January 04, Friday   39.2818 THB

Edited by lazygourmet, 2010-08-28 13:08:13.

[chops]

that is really nothing.  ultimately, the euro is an overvalued currency vs the thai baht.  it should be close to what the dollar is.  ~30ish.

now, you think you feel pain?  it could be a lot worse.

i have gotten by with 31 baht to my US dollars for a long time.  i survived.

[JimGant]

Quote

i have gotten by with 31 baht to my US dollars for a long time. i survived.

It wasn't that long ago the baht was 32.65 to the dollar (6/7/10). How'd you manage to eke out only 31?

[gotlost]

Todays cry.   30.90 USD   47.89 GBP   39.32 EUR   Bangkok Bank.

[lannarebirth]

Be grateful.

[flying]

gotlost, on 2010-08-30 12:23:46, said:

Todays cry.   30.90 USD   47.89 GBP   39.32 EUR   Bangkok Bank.

I noticed Thai Visa now has the amounts in the upper right corner of the forum.

But I wonder where it is linked to? It is lower than any I have seen... BKB, SCB etc.

Edited by flying, 2010-08-30 14:07:41.

[Naam]

crgram, on 2010-08-28 12:48:29, said:

I agree for the most part as well.  Not to quibble though, but the west is not in recession, great or otherwise.  The economies are just growing so slowly it will take quite some time to work out the whole created in 2007/8.  The massive deficit spending is certainly playing a big part in the exchange rate.  The odd thing to me is the JPY strength, Japans economy is as bad as Europe or the US.  Bound to be killing their exports...

reason = risk aversion and therefore carry trades JP¥  vs. a bunch of HY currencies unwinding.

[midas]

Naam, on 2010-08-30 17:55:08, said:

crgram, on 2010-08-28 12:48:29, said:

I agree for the most part as well.  Not to quibble though, but the west is not in recession, great or otherwise.  The economies are just growing so slowly it will take quite some time to work out the whole created in 2007/8.  The massive deficit spending is certainly playing a big part in the exchange rate.  The odd thing to me is the JPY strength, Japans economy is as bad as Europe or the US.  Bound to be killing their exports...

reason = risk aversion and therefore carry trades JP¥  vs. a bunch of HY currencies unwinding.

And so why won't the BoJ intervene with some  meaningful measures unlike
the red herring from yesterday ? Look at the Nikkei today !

[gotlost]

Todays shyt.  30.91 usd  47.70 gbp  39.05 eur:annoyed:

[beppi]

> Do you think it will get better before the end of the year?
> I am planing on retuning in November but now I'm seriously thinking about staying put now. It's depressing


What's depressing about that?
I am visiting Europe also in November and prefer to pay less for what I spend there.
Same when I transfer my savings there. The Euro should sink to THB30 or less!

[sonicdragon]

midas, on 2010-08-31 10:49:59, said:

And so why won't the BoJ intervene with some  meaningful measures unlike
the red herring from yesterday ? Look at the Nikkei today !

One reason is that the BOJ does not have the legal authority to do so. Exchange rate policy falls under the jurisdiction of the Ministry of Finance, and so intervention requires the collaboration of both agencies, which have historically been quite adversarial/territorial. In essence the situation would have to become extraordinarily dire before they act. That point may well be approaching, but history teaches us that they won't do it when everyone is expecting it.

Edited by sonicdragon, 2010-08-31 18:46:40.

[midas]

sonicdragon, on 2010-08-31 18:43:22, said:

midas, on 2010-08-31 10:49:59, said:

And so why won't the BoJ intervene with some  meaningful measures unlike
the red herring from yesterday ? Look at the Nikkei today !

One reason is that the BOJ does not have the legal authority to do so. Exchange rate policy falls under the jurisdiction of the Ministry of Finance, and so intervention requires the collaboration of both agencies, which have historically been quite adversarial/territorial. In essence the situation would have to become extraordinarily dire before they act. That point may well be approaching, but history teaches us that they won't do it when everyone is expecting it.

Thanks for that......i didnt know this before.

Amazing how the strengthening Yen is causing the Nikkei to dive which i can understand
and yet here in LOS as the baht gets even stronger the SET climbs even more ?
And I just seem to bumping into so many Thai's who complain there aren't enough tourists
to support their business.

[sonicdragon]

Remember "Mr Yen" - the man who was probably the most influential single person on Japanese exchange rate policy in recent history ? Eisuke Sakakibara - he was an official of the MoF, not the BoJ.  I suspect that the BoJ are keen on weakening the Yen, since it could be a very effective tool for further monetary easing. However the MoF beurocrats and politicians may be fearful of failure or unintended consequences. Never underestimate how conservative Japanese politicians can be (even the so-called liberals), especially in the face of being "told what to do" by the upstarts at the BoJ with PhDs from Harvard etc.

As for the THB/SET, it's not something I follow very much. The economy may be export dependent, but the current account is in surplus. This should naturally put upward pressure on the THB. Meanwhile, there are worries about the USD and Euro - so it wouldn't surprise me to find some hot money looking for escape and some of that could flow into stocks in Thailand.

The *really* amazing thing about the Nikkei is that it was at 39,000 in 1989 !