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Bird Flu- Likely Scenarios


72 replies to this topic

#51 sriracha john

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Posted 2005-10-25 17:03:27

Judge, on 2005-10-25 09:05:52, said:

britmaveric, on 2005-10-24 18:47:09, said:

xbusman, on 2005-10-24 18:44:34, said:

I hope you dont mean Som nam na.... Perhaps Mai Pen Rai might be more to the tune of the day.

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I did mean what I said.... but Mai Pen Rai is also suitable. :D

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We all deserve to die?
:D

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I suppose in some way, it's only fair. I have no idea how many chickens have died to feed me over my lifetime, but I imagine it's a fairly large number. Colonel Sanders and I go way back...   :o

#52 Tywais

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Posted 2005-10-25 17:20:24

chownah, on 2005-10-24 22:00:44, said:

Now would be a good time to read Edgar Allen Poe's "The Mask of the Red Death."  I think many people are in just the right mood for it.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>


I prefer "The Raven" myself, as it comes tapping, tapping at my chamber door.

#53 phibunmike

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Posted 2005-10-25 17:37:13

womble, on 2005-10-25 17:59:22, said:

Quite funny how some people refuse to believe this could infact be serious, while others are convinced this will be the end of mankind :o

Some people definatley should take this more seriously though, no need to get worried, but a plan of action is probobally advisable.

We are on the front line afterall, I havn't panicked or anything like that, but it is definatley good sense to read up a bit, and learn how to best protect yourselves, your childeren etc. 

I'm not convinced it's going to hit 100%, but when just about every virologist is warning of the imminent danger it suggests that maybe we shouldn't just totally write off the concerns off these experts.

For me i'll carry on reading up and learn how to best protect myself, but I won't be loosing any sleep over it.

Just like anything we don't understand, Knowledge is the best form of protection.  Denial won't get you anywhere.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>


well said...

#54 britmaveric

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Posted 2005-10-25 17:41:28

Judge, on 2005-10-25 09:05:52, said:

britmaveric, on 2005-10-24 18:47:09, said:

xbusman, on 2005-10-24 18:44:34, said:

I hope you dont mean Som nam na.... Perhaps Mai Pen Rai might be more to the tune of the day.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

I did mean what I said.... but Mai Pen Rai is also suitable. :D

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>


We all deserve to die?
Are you, by any chance, a Muslim Mr. Britmaveric?  :D

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Obviously you haven't read many threads here!!  :o

Any rate what I am saying is beyond isolating yourself from the world there is naught you can do when it comes to a virus. If you get it - such as life and hope for the best. (bad and uncontrollable things happen everyday - we are mere pawns in the game of live) I think most in the medical profession would say don't panic and live your life.

#55 xbusman

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Posted 2005-10-25 18:49:35

I get the Som Nam Na, your right, chicken revenge for all us carnivores. One thing I am doing is getting in the habit of washing my hands constantly, maybe the best protection we have against anything. Hope it doesnt turn into a neurosis. Having worked with some rather famous people I did notice that to be a very common neurosis, now I am understanding why.

Still looking for that army of 900,000 wandering about Thailand. You think they would not be hard to find.

#56 Judge

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Posted 2005-10-25 18:55:14

britmaveric, on 2005-10-25 17:41:28, said:

Judge, on 2005-10-25 09:05:52, said:

britmaveric, on 2005-10-24 18:47:09, said:

xbusman, on 2005-10-24 18:44:34, said:

I hope you dont mean Som nam na.... Perhaps Mai Pen Rai might be more to the tune of the day.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

I did mean what I said.... but Mai Pen Rai is also suitable. :D

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>


We all deserve to die?
Are you, by any chance, a Muslim Mr. Britmaveric?  :D

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Obviously you haven't read many threads here!!  :o

Any rate what I am saying is beyond isolating yourself from the world there is naught you can do when it comes to a virus. If you get it - such as life and hope for the best. (bad and uncontrollable things happen everyday - we are mere pawns in the game of live) I think most in the medical profession would say don't panic and live your life.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>


I know that you are not an angry Muslim and are, in fact, an excellent human being.
Just wanted to rub it in about the "Som nom na" remark.
Were you indeed speaking on behalf of the chickens Mr. Britmaveric?  :D

#57 britmaveric

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Posted 2005-10-25 18:58:00

Well since my daily staple in most cases is chicken - I'd be considered frankly a chicken murderer. :o

#58 zata_in_bangkok

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Posted 2005-10-25 21:32:42

I think nowadays the situation is somewhat different from 1918. One has to take in mind that 1918 was just after WW 1. The virus hit at a time where food was scarce and peopleswere weakened from the war, especially in Europe. Nowadays, people are healthier and I would like to think the immune system more resistant...

Nevertheless, I do agree with all of you, it is quite scary. I was at a meeting recently where health specialists from all over the world said the question was not whether there would be a break out. Rather, the question was WHEN...

#59 bina

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Posted 2005-10-25 23:50:56

once again, since i work with fowls: chickens and ducks, although in the middle east, and mine are open-air, we get weekly up dates and i tend to be the hysterical american that calls up the zoo to ask what's new, but so far, the person who talked about the difference between now and 1918 seems to be the thought behind many of the vets here.... these viruses have always been among bird flocks...

i suspect that hygiene, living quarters, and work conditions are  very very very big factors for whether a person will get sick or not.... since we have thai workers working in the  big chicken farms (not just thai but i'm the thai translator of sorts), we've introduced stricter bio security measures and work methods including lots of anti viral detergents, air sprays, and unfortunately also formalin based sprays... and additional education on personal hygiene: including not wearing work clothes home, ever ever ever, showering on premises, change of clothes complete, in site laundry.... something that i dont think there is on chicken farms in thailand though i could be wrong....

but i do wish someone could be much more specific about areas around buriram and nongkhai,  i can write and give exact villages... we have three guys going home today, they've been briefed about going to chicken fights, farms other then they're own, with instructions about sick chickens, ducks etc which they know from work,
hoping that there will not be a quarantine at the airport when they have to return in december....

#60 The Gentleman Scamp

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Posted 2005-10-26 00:11:41

We had the same hype with SARS and what was the outcome of that?

Let's hope this will follow suit.

#61 britmaveric

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Posted 2005-10-26 00:13:33

The Gentleman Scamp, on 2005-10-26 00:11:41, said:

We had the same hype with SARS and what was the outcome of that?

Let's hope this will follow suit.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Go to Narita - still Japanese running around with masks on!!!  :o

#62 ayakiawe

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Posted 2005-10-26 00:21:42

for the more likely scenarios see these two web links:

http://www.mercola.c...c_is_a_hoax.htm

http://www.mercola.c...an_flu_hoax.htm

#63 Rigger

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Posted 2005-10-26 03:08:30

ayakiawe, on 2005-10-26 00:21:42, said:


So thats what is killing all the birds and making people sick (george bush)  :o

#64 Dradam

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Posted 2005-10-26 05:44:08

I think the world community has not even taken China into account here.  SARS was considered a serious threat because of deaths in Hong Kong and Singapore.  Turns out that it had started in China and was actually far more serious there than anywhere else in the world.  It started in China and was transmitted to Hong Kong.  That is one reason why Hong Kong does not trust China.
Chinese medical care among the poor population worsens as the country grows in wealth and becomes more and more capitalist (leaving its poor population behind).  Anytime that Hong Kong reports that it had to cull over 100,000 chickens, my first thought is "how many chickens are spreading this in China?"
China has over a billion people.  Many of these are living in close contact with chickens and pigs.  If the avian flu is causing deaths in Thailand, my guess is it is causing major death and destruction in China already.
China announced it would close its doors if there is a single human case of the chicken flu.  There are cases in Hong Kong, Taiwan, Thailand, Vietnam, and Cambodia.  Adding the population of those countries together gives about one fifth the population of China.  I don't believe that China hasn't had a human case.  The bird flu has spread to Romania and Russia.  Did it avoid China?
China announced that they have killed a few thousand chickens but there are no indications of the virus.   China kills a few thousand while Hong Kong kills over a hundred thousand.  Does this fit reason?
The announcement that they haven't had a human case only makes me more nervous.  It is like finding a dozen cookies missing from the cookie jar and having a young boy blurt out that he never eats cookies.
I think what is seen in Thailand is a microcosm of what is currently happening in China.

#65 sriracha john

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Posted 2005-10-26 06:50:08

:o

ayakiawe, on 2005-10-26 00:21:42, said:


I think I'd have more faith in Dr. Mercola's opinions if he wasn't so ardently hocking "snake oils" on this same website:

"This certified organic Virgin Coconut Oil -- with no chemicals or bleach added, from fresh and non-hybrid, non-GMO coconuts grown in some of the most nutrient-rich and clean soil on earth -- costs $18.00 per pint.
This high-quality chlorella provides 180 capsules (81 grams, about 27 total doses) per container. My recommended dosage is generally three grams per day. As each capsule contains 450 mg, that is between 6-7 capsules per day, so these containers provide you about a four-week supply of the purest chlorella on earth. I recommend taking the chlorella with meals. Each 180 capsule container of chlorella costs only $19.50, plus shipping.
Whey Healthier Protein Shake costs just $39.97 per 540 gram jar, plus shipping. Each jar contains 18 servings."

:D

#66 sriracha john

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Posted 2005-10-26 08:46:53

The spread continues:

Bird Flu Detected in Germany

Officials in Germany say at least a dozen dead birds found in the country have tested positive for bird flu. The finding comes as the EU confirmed moves to ban imports of captive live birds from other countries.

-------------------------------------------------


Britain and Croatia Confirm Bird Flu Cases
LONDON — Britain and Croatia confirmed cases of bird flu on Friday as countries around the world scrambled to put in place measures to prevent the spread of the virus.

--------------------------

#67 Jai Dee

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Posted 2005-10-26 09:00:03

sriracha john, on 2005-10-26 06:50:08, said:

:D

ayakiawe, on 2005-10-26 00:21:42, said:


I think I'd have more faith in Dr. Mercola's opinions if he wasn't so ardently hocking "snake oils" on this same website:

"This certified organic Virgin Coconut Oil -- with no chemicals or bleach added, from fresh and non-hybrid, non-GMO coconuts grown in some of the most nutrient-rich and clean soil on earth -- costs $18.00 per pint.
This high-quality chlorella provides 180 capsules (81 grams, about 27 total doses) per container. My recommended dosage is generally three grams per day. As each capsule contains 450 mg, that is between 6-7 capsules per day, so these containers provide you about a four-week supply of the purest chlorella on earth. I recommend taking the chlorella with meals. Each 180 capsule container of chlorella costs only $19.50, plus shipping.
Whey Healthier Protein Shake costs just $39.97 per 540 gram jar, plus shipping. Each jar contains 18 servings."

:D

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I personally liked his promotion of his Himalayan Crystal Salt...

"Salt is essential for life, yet almost all commercial table and cooking salts have been "chemically cleaned" and reduced to sodium chloride - an unnatural chemical that acts as a poison in your body. If you want your body to function properly, you need holistic salt complete with all-natural elements. After years of searching, I've found the purest salt available on earth that's absolutely uncontaminated with any toxins or pollutants - Himalayan Crystal Salt!

This salt from the Himalayas is known as "white gold" because it contains eons of stored sunlight. Together with pure spring water, Himalayan Crystal Salt offers all 84 elements exactly identical to the elements in your body, and is vital for:... blah... blah... blah... "
:o

#68 baht&sold

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Posted 2005-10-26 10:21:45

I personally enjoyed the link to the Daily Show (my PRIME source of news;) "A bit of herd thinning may ensue..." "Somewhere between 5- 1.5 billion ppl"  "after several serious hurricanes, we feel prepared to deal with this" :o

My advice? Just get on with your life already ppl, if the sky is falling, you'll probably get hit on the head anyways, meantime, enjoy!  :D

#69 Nickerelastic

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Posted 2005-10-26 10:28:09

baht&sold, on 2005-10-26 04:21:45, said:

I personally enjoyed the link to the Daily Show (my PRIME source of news;) "A bit of herd thinning may ensue..." "Somewhere between 5- 1.5 billion ppl"  "after several serious hurricanes, we feel prepared to deal with this" :D

My advice? Just get on with your life already ppl, if the sky is falling, you'll probably get hit on the head anyways, meantime, enjoy!  :D

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I've sent my fish to a safe haven :o

the sky is falling :D  :D  :D  :D

#70 The Gentleman Scamp

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Posted 2005-10-26 10:34:07

I think I already have normal flu. :o

Later today (Can't now it's 0432 AM and I can't sleep 'cause I'm too cold) I will get a flu jab, quit smoking for a few days and drink loads of water and vitamin C.

#71 thaiflyer1

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Posted 2005-10-26 11:00:45

The Gentleman Scamp, on 2005-10-26 00:11:41, said:

We had the same hype with SARS and what was the outcome of that?

Let's hope this will follow suit.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>


The  worlds  becoming  a  dangerous  place..............your  lucky  to  get  out  of  it  alive  these  days.  :o

#72 The Gentleman Scamp

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Posted 2005-10-26 11:13:02

thaiflyer1, on 2005-10-26 11:00:45, said:

The Gentleman Scamp, on 2005-10-26 00:11:41, said:

We had the same hype with SARS and what was the outcome of that?

Let's hope this will follow suit.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>


The  worlds  becoming  a  dangerous  place..............your  lucky  to  get  out  of  it  alive  these  days.  :o

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>


Let's be honest though, SARS didn't even get off the runway did it?

Not really.

#73 Narachon

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Posted 2005-10-26 23:50:04

The Gentleman Scamp, on 2005-10-26 10:34:07, said:

I think I already have normal flu. :D

Later today (Can't now it's 0432 AM and I can't sleep 'cause I'm too cold) I will get a flu jab, quit smoking for a few days and drink loads of water and vitamin C.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>


....And don't forget to stay away from the Chinese Birds, Scampy.... :o



 


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