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[webfact]

REGIONAL PERSPECTIVE
Thailand falters as its neighbors rise rapidly



First, it was Cambodia, then Vietnam and Laos. After three decades, Burma has become in the past six months the region's new darling

With the once pariah state joining the road of reformation, the new strategic profile of Southeast Asia will be undergoing serious challenges, particularly the shifting of focus to India and China, which Burma shares common borders. It can directly impact on the Western-led global security architecture and usher in a new framework that can affect the US leading security role in the region. The overall situation today is still murky to see a clear power reconfiguration as major players are still grappling with the super turns of events in Burma and the overwhelming responses from abroad. They are frantically juggling for positions to ensure their footholds are in the right place. The frequently asked question now is: which country is calling the shot or who is charge? The answers will depend on the nation or person you asked or talked to.

For the semi-civilian government of President Thein Sein government, it is their proudest moment as they have worked out meticulously to implement the seven-point roadmap kicked off in August 2003. It was a fait accompli par excellence of its domestic development. In the past 10 years, the plan remained unchanged and proceeded continuously until its crescendo on 19 August 2011 when Thein Sien met and the opposition leader, Aung Sann Suu Kyi. They reached an amicable concord that subsequently translated into series of tangible reforms including release of political prisoners and expansion of freedom of expression.

As part of the reformation's top priority, Nayphidaw has strategically let loose some of the media censorship, which overnight has generated so much goodwill within the country and around the world. Except North Korea, Burma is literally the only Asian country left without international media's regular reportings. Of late, many commentators and free media advocators have commented positively on the media empowerment there in contrast with the deteriorating environment in Thailand and other Asean countries. In respond to media openness, some members of the Burmese exile news media community are making trips to Burma to link up with local media or register for printing licenses. India-based Mizzima Multimedia Group has obtained a license of the same name to print and sell its publications. Aung Zaw, editor in chief of Irrawaddy Magazine who has been living in Chiangmai for the past 23 years, is going to Burma this week on a five-day journalist visa.

For the time being, domestic and international attention is zeroed in on the by-elections on 1 April. For the outside world, those headlines of Suu Kyi's return to the campaign trails last week have given Burma the much needed face lift--a new democratic image that will certainly attract applauds and foreign assistance and investments in days and weeks ahead. It is also part of the roadmap's seventh step that will wintess the increasing role of the National Assembly or Hluttaw and its affiliates. If Suu Kyi is elected, she will quickly become an icon of Burmese parliamentarian politics although her influence would be limited. Meanwhile, Burma's image will continue to improve, pressuring the Western countries to accelerate the dismantling of sanctions. However, very few people would be questioning—or care enough to follow-- the ongoing war against the non-ceasefire groups such as the Kachin and violations of human rights against the minority groups.

Strange but true, the Western countries are rushing into Burma, knowing full well that the whole development might change at any time as the military under the strongman, Gen Than Shwe, is still very much in control—not only in the parliamentarian but the nation's day-to-day politics. The case in point was Suu Kyi's latest push to amend the 2008 constitution poses a huge challenge for the power wielders. Extensive reports on her campaign trails will test the limits of Nayphidaw and reveal the nature of the new media law and other reform measures. Ironically, given such high level of anxiety, the West believes that the only way to preserve the ongoing reforms is to provide unwavering supports to the Thein Sein team by ending all forms restrictions to bring in investment, technical assistance and reconnect Burma with international networks.

For the US, the improved ties with Burma have been hailed as a diplomatic coup for the Obama administration, which is seeking some solid foreign policy success. Of course, it would be hard to sell in the presidential election but nonetheless it is a positive development, at least for now. That helps to explain why Washington's engagement with Nayphidaw has been specific and focused on nuclear-nonproliferation and missile technology and human rights issues. High-level commitments from the Thein Sein government to the US enabled the normalization process to move quickly with concrete steps. When the first small patch of political prisoners were released back in November, the disappointing US moved quickly to step up pressure on Burma for bigger release which finally came through in January 2012 as the US expressed willingness to normalize ties at the ambassadorial level. This impetus is likely to continue and provide the umbrella for other Western countries to move in. The European Community after two decades of coordinated sanctions with the US is moving quickly to establish its presence. United Kingdom, the staunchest anti-Nayphidaw in EU, has already entered its former colonial territory making uses of old links. So are the plethora of Japanese senior officials and executives who are yearning for old Burma that they used to know.

Under the Yingluck leadership, Thailand has reduced itself into an insignificant regional player, whose interest is dwelled on short-term economic returns. So far, she has not been able to articulate key strategic issues Thailand is facing in the fast changing world. Domestically, her government is constantly mobilized for public relations. Heavy news spins can provide the cover of leadership's incompetency for the time being—not for long. After the unfettered five-decade lead-time for national development, Thailand today no longer has the same privilege. Other neighbors, especially the former Indochinese countries, are enjoying the dividend of peace and stability with an equal access, if not more, to global resources and knowledge that increase their levels playing fields and fasten nation building. Meanwhile, Thailand continues to indulge in self-destruction political games, which have already zapped its regional influence as well as slow down development and progress.

If Burma is genuine and can maintain current reform moments for an extended period until taking over the Asean chair in 2014, it can easily emerge as a catalyst for the emerging regional architecture with its nexus of security and democratic developoment. Albeit the recalcitrance to credit Asean, Burma can still count on the members' support when it tweaks on major powers. If the democracy takes holds, the country can tip the political balance within Asean--similar to Indonesia's democratization. Unlike the rest of Southeast Asia, Burma has already mastered the diplomatic game of "dynamic equilibrium", the term used by Indonesian Foreign Minister Marty Natalegawa. Indeed, no other Southeast Asian nations in recent memory have turned down an ongoing China's huge construction project in mid-air as in the case of Myintsone Dam last year.


-- The Nation 2012-02-06

[kurnell]

..and just like a typical lad from isaan, Thailand will keep on sleeping

[softgeorge]

kurnell, on 2012-02-06 06:31:45, said:

..and just like a typical lad from isaan, Thailand will keep on sleeping

Unfortunately Thailand is far to stuborn to see the problems.  They are chopping down the trees in the search for the forest.  Why start maintenance on your home if it hasn't fallen down yet?

[Unkomoncents]

Finally, an article that actually warrants some merit.  Seeing the line-up of Davos politicians that met with Yingluck was an important indicator of this phenomenon.  Thailand barely earns a mention in the geopolitical importance department and that would likely be because of highly unpredictable government dynamics and proxy-leadership.  It is entertaining to read articles like this in which confusion (and especially colonial-tinged paranoia) over the Western courtship of Burma reigns supreme.  That Western leaders are bending over backwards to pat Myanmar on the back should come as no surprise.  Not only is China containment a significant consideration but the Burmese have massive unexploited environmental potential.  Penny-pinching Western leaders are looking hungrily at cheap natural resources.

In addition to rampant grammatical errors, this article also fails to explore the 'why' (surprise, surprise) for Thailand's recent downgrades in geopolitical and economic importance.  I'm sure, if anyone pressed, that the answer would be 'floods and unpredictable weather'.  If only that were the whole story.

[marquess]

Let us see what happens over the next few years, see if Burma will prove an attractive destination for foreign investment on a large as well as small scale. I for one would be happy to consider living in a  place that has a culture not too dissimilar from Thailand's (i.e. friendly smiling people) but with less of the nationalism and a  fairer visa system. It is doubtful that Yingluck and company will be doing anything to improve Thailand for the foreseeable future-- as their main concern is enriching themselves and bringing back a trouble maker!

Edited by marquess, 2012-02-06 08:00:09.

[HeavyDrinker]

My cousin has been making a mint out of Burma for a decade already.

He's been on at me for ages to "get in on the ground floor" as it were.

[jalansanitwong]

Thailands strength has always been the weakness of its neighbours. Once they all start developing, lazy Thailand will be left behind.Burma has
hundredsof magnificent little islands presumably far more pristine than over commercialised Phuket. Great for eco tourism.
Laos is coming up albeit slowly and Cambodia should be ready to rejoin the human race within 10 years.

Biggest problem in Thailand is the country is owned by the top 100 or so richest Thai and Chinese Thai families. They want to keep the status quo. Tobacco monopoly, alcohol /beverages monopoly, pseudo monopolies created by shutting out competition using huge import duties and  appalling corruption at the docks and airports. Crappy locally produced appliances and cars, foreign reserves created through massive prostitution industry and impoverished Issan wife exports to England,Germany,Sweden, Switzerland, Korea, Australia, USA. Insane foreign ownership laws and regs, restrictive and expensive immigration regs,.
Thailand is their own private club, so 60 million Thai's and foreigners arent invited.
The government refuses to take the English language seriously so they will suffer severely long term. Thais are not wanted because they cant speak English.
This country has always been incredibly difficult for outsiders to conduct  business .
Better options are popping up.
Thai's will just shrug their shoulders because they dont care. Pretty girl PM Yingluck will head off to Milan to buy the latest LV handbag for 150,000 b.Nothing will ever change here.

Edited by jalansanitwong, 2012-02-06 08:15:04.

[Unkomoncents]

I look forward to the first hiccups in the go-Burma-reforms department...But there is good reason to be optimistic.  Something is definitely afoot.

[DP25]

Quote

Strange but true, the Western countries are rushing into Burma, knowing full well that the whole development might change at any time as the military under the strongman, Gen Than Shwe, is still very much in control—not only in the parliamentarian but the nation's day-to-day politics.

As long as there is enough reform to protect western investors, they couldn't care less if Burma is ruled by an autocratic strongman

[happysanook]

i'm not sure what the hubbub is about here.  if anything, thailand is getting too big for it's britches as it is.  everywhere i look i see expansion, renovation, things transforming and becoming increasingly modern in front of my eyes.  even in the little town i live in, the rate of change is insane.

[Om85]

Is not only Yingluck's government , Thailand has always been an insignificant player and if the Thai people don't change their policies i order to attract more foreign investment in order to develop this nation, then they will be left behind

[noitom]

"Thailand falters." An appropriate characterization of the future for this near failed state. It doesn't take much living here, doing business here, traveling here, or trying to take the positive view to figure out the way that the outside world views Thailand. A consistent performance of duplicity and outright mendacity, betrayal, and double crossing coupled with behavior in its own borders that reflects serious failed state characteristics.

Let's be frank, Thais perceive that the outside world and its economic constituencies such as tourists, foreign investors, and trade partners are fools. Thais operate as if the outside world doesn't have a clue as to who they really are and what they stand for. Thais stand on persistent denial of the reality of the way that the world sees them. To understand the way that Thailand falters, Thais need to take a look at this and wake up. They need to call a spade a spade.

The faltering is not because Burma is on the rise and Cambodia may come around in ten years. The faltering is not attributable to this government alone. It is the result of decades and decades of over inflated sense of self importance and selfish outlook on everything. Thai double talk, inconsistencies with moral and global standards, rationalizing ineptness, and a pervasive attitude to monetize and corrupt everything including their own behavior and values and that of their children's for generations have caused them to self destruct.

The first thing Thais need to do is recognize who they really are and not who they would like to be. Thais need to recognize the real issues creating the problem, their duplicity, lack of personal values and standards, their willingness to speak the truth, and  their subjugation of their own people to a state of ignorance and exclusion. They can't "smile away" the rest of the world anymore. Solving the Thai dilemma is not easy. They almost have to totally self destruct and then start with a clean piece of paper. They need a true "independent" leader to rise, and then gather momentum with sticking power. They need an agent of change who is a real leader. Part of the problem is that Thainess has no tolerance of individuality and leadership. They've lost their way.

[Moruya]

The danger to Thailand is that it fails to plan to taylor itself to the up and coming ASEAN market. If it doesn't plan, then it risks losing skilled and semi-skilled workers to higher wages abroad and becoming an importer of cheaper products from it's neighbours (key agricultural products excepted)

Edited by metisdead, 2012-02-06 09:57:10.
Font reset.

[JurgenG]

happysanook, on 2012-02-06 08:38:32, said:

i'm not sure what the hubbub is about here.  if anything, thailand is getting too big for it's britches as it is.  everywhere i look i see expansion, renovation, things transforming and becoming increasingly modern in front of my eyes.  even in the little town i live in, the rate of change is insane.

True but the political environment is like last year clothes on a fast growing teenager, hampering the movements, blocking the growth.

Some want to isolate Thailand from the rest of the world through muddy "self sufficiency" policies. History taught us, Japan and China spring to mind, that isolation doesn't work.

In a fast changing world Thailand lost 6 years, really lost because nothing constructive happened during the past 6 years, dreaming about a mythical Thailand that never really existed.

Yesteryear Thailand is over, gone for ever. It's time people realize that or we will take the the same path as the Philippines. In the 70's the Philippines was one of the most developed nation in SE Asia, now it is at the bottom. Is that the future people want for Thailand ?

[EyesWideOpen]

Hmm let's see. Burma has a population of about 60 million people who are hard working, and have generally strong English speaking skills. Then couple that with the fact that  Singapore is now teaching them how to develop a corruption free economy. Yeah if I was Thailand, I would be a bit nervous too. With weak neighbors, Thailand could fairly easily portray itself as the best business choice of the area. And that you would simply have to accept the corruption and governmental lunacy as part of the deal.  But now as better choices start appearing, Thailand will have to make some serious changes. But this will not happen of course, because for the elite people who own Thailand, change is the very last thing they want.
  Who will build the buildings in Thailand if there are no Burmese workers to exploit? And god forbid, what if Burma takes a look at Thailand, and decides that a well developed sex industry is nice little income earner ???

Edited by EyesWideOpen, 2012-02-06 10:00:17.

[marquess]

Thailand won't make any changes-- for as long as they can sit in their own country doing things their way then they don't really care about the rest of the world. They are taught that their country is the best country in the world and the way they do things is both different and superior-- 'Thai Wisdom'. The majority of them believe this and the elite is quite happy to perpetuate this view as it serves their interests. Lets hope that this beautiful country of Thailand can find new ways to adapt that will allow it to see itself as  it is generally perceived by most objective observers.

[animatic]

Quote

from OP: Under the Yingluck leadership, Thailand has reduced itself into an insignificant regional player, whose interest is dwelled on short-term economic returns. So far, she has not been able to articulate key strategic issues Thailand is facing in the fast changing world. Domestically, her government is constantly mobilized for public relations. Heavy news spins can provide the cover of leadership's incompetency for the time being—not for long.

Dropping the ball on yet another level.
So much to be gained, and so much more being lost.

Edited by animatic, 2012-02-06 10:37:51.

[moe666]

JurgenG, on 2012-02-06 09:23:35, said:

happysanook, on 2012-02-06 08:38:32, said:

i'm not sure what the hubbub is about here.  if anything, thailand is getting too big for it's britches as it is.  everywhere i look i see expansion, renovation, things transforming and becoming increasingly modern in front of my eyes.  even in the little town i live in, the rate of change is insane.

True but the political environment is like last year clothes on a fast growing teenager, hampering the movements, blocking the growth.

Some want to isolate Thailand from the rest of the world through muddy "self sufficiency" policies. History taught us, Japan and China spring to mind, that isolation doesn't work.

In a fast changing world Thailand lost 6 years, really lost because nothing constructive happened during the past 6 years, dreaming about a mythical Thailand that never really existed.

Yesteryear Thailand is over, gone for ever. It's time people realize that or we will take the the same path as the Philippines. In the 70's the Philippines was one of the most developed nation in SE Asia, now it is at the bottom. Is that the future people want for Thailand ?

And why did the Philippines stagnate, a power hungry leader, Marcos who sold and stole the country blind. Similar to someone trying to and controlling Thailand from Dubai. After they kicked marcos out some really dumb decisions were made that have only made the situation worse. Corruption in the Philippines worse than in Thailand.

[JurgenG]

animatic, on 2012-02-06 10:37:33, said:

Quote

from OP: Under the Yingluck leadership, Thailand has reduced itself into an insignificant regional player   , whose interest is dwelled on short-term economic returns. So far, she has not been able to articulate key strategic issues Thailand is facing in the fast changing world. Domestically, her government is constantly mobilized for public relations. Heavy news spins can provide the cover of leadership's incompetency for the time being—not for long.

Dropping the ball on yet another level.
So much to be gained, and so much more being lost.

DAVOS: The World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, rolled out the red carpet for the Thai delegation led by Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra.
http://www.thaivisa....hai-delegation/

It can't be a The Nation editorial without a cheap shot at the current government

_

Edited by JurgenG, 2012-02-06 11:11:24.

[Unkomoncents]

JurgenG, on 2012-02-06 11:09:28, said:

animatic, on 2012-02-06 10:37:33, said:

Quote

from OP: Under the Yingluck leadership, Thailand has reduced itself into an insignificant regional player   , whose interest is dwelled on short-term economic returns. So far, she has not been able to articulate key strategic issues Thailand is facing in the fast changing world. Domestically, her government is constantly mobilized for public relations. Heavy news spins can provide the cover of leadership's incompetency for the time being—not for long.

Dropping the ball on yet another level.
So much to be gained, and so much more being lost.

DAVOS: The World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, rolled out the red carpet for the Thai delegation led by Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra.
http://www.thaivisa....hai-delegation/

It can't be a The Nation editorial without a cheap shot at the current government

_

It can't be Thailand without a conception of the self as immaculate.

[Bakseedaa]

jalansanitwong, on 2012-02-06 08:05:34, said:

Thailands strength has always been the weakness of its neighbours. Once they all start developing, lazy Thailand will be left behind.Burma has
hundredsof magnificent little islands presumably far more pristine than over commercialised Phuket. Great for eco tourism.
Laos is coming up albeit slowly and Cambodia should be ready to rejoin the human race within 10 years.

Biggest problem in Thailand is the country is owned by the top 100 or so richest Thai and Chinese Thai families. They want to keep the status quo. Tobacco monopoly, alcohol /beverages monopoly, pseudo monopolies created by shutting out competition using huge import duties and  appalling corruption at the docks and airports. Crappy locally produced appliances and cars, foreign reserves created through massive prostitution industry and impoverished Issan wife exports to England,Germany,Sweden, Switzerland, Korea, Australia, USA. Insane foreign ownership laws and regs, restrictive and expensive immigration regs,.
Thailand is their own private club, so 60 million Thai's and foreigners arent invited.
The government refuses to take the English language seriously so they will suffer severely long term. Thais are not wanted because they cant speak English.
This country has always been incredibly difficult for outsiders to conduct  business .
Better options are popping up.
Thai's will just shrug their shoulders because they dont care. Pretty girl PM Yingluck will head off to Milan to buy the latest LV handbag for 150,000 b.Nothing will ever change here.

Haha...Cambodia will Never join the human race....   But Burma...   almost everyone speaks English for a start..!

[saanya]

It's not just the government, it's a systemic corrosion of the day to day attitude of Thais. Corruption is such apart of daily life, everyone's brainwashed into taking a feudal approach to just about everything.

[sparebox2]

Thai and Thailand have no fear.
We are number 1 in ASEAN.
Number 2 in ASIA, after Japan.

We have plenty of rice in our field, and much fish in our water.
And above all, we have a great king, to much envy of all other countires in the whole universe.

[wxyz]

mr T wants to move the capital anyway and turn Bangkok into a bay. Can't sink lower than that.

[khaowong1]

Why does Thailand faltering not surprise me.  " World opinion, we don't need no stinking world opinion. "