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[wxyz]

PM clone "PM denies Ayutthaya flood is water mismanagement"

That's her story and she's sticking to it. That's the mr T talking.

Edited by wxyz, 2012-02-09 13:55:50.

[whybother]

"Preparation for rainy season"

That's so they can get used to the flooding.

Posted with Thaivisa App http://apps.thaivisa.com

[ResX]

otherstuff1957, on 2012-02-09 12:49:37, said:

cougar52, on 2012-02-08 17:52:02, said:

It is the type of BS that the Government puts out more lies, who can believe them.

This was posted today at around 9 A.M.;

Posted Today, 09:00
Chao Phraya River overflows, inundating Ayutthaya's Sena District, officials say unseasonal rain caused high water level, not water discharged from dams /MCOT

and at 16:08 this afternoon MCOT posted this so I guess the lies are stil comming and no-one takes responsibilty.

Here's this month's rainfall from the Thai Met Dept:



This map shows the departure from normal:



It does show about 5cm of rain above average, most of which will drain out the Tha Chin River, not the Chao Phraya.  It just so happens that the Sena district in Ayutthaya is to the west, near the Tha Chin rather than the Chao Phraya.

In this case, the officials may be right, it is unseasonable rain, not dam discharge causing this flood.

Average rainfall for Bhumibol catchment is roughly about 9billion cubic meters per 12 months (286m3/s).  What happens if they opt to release 7billion cubic meter of water in 3 months from Bhumibol? Yes, the average discharge will be 900m3/s, or more than 3 folds higher than average!  In our country, normally 4 folds discharge above the average is not enough to start floods for most of our rivers. I don't know about Thailand.  But then the river downstream to the dam has lost its natural retention capacity.  The dam discharge has used it.  The water level can be very close to its banks. What happens when its rain? Any average rainfall could mean at least 2 folds higher than average flow.  If you add dam water release and average rainfall what do you get?  It is 3+2 =5 folds above average.  I'm almost certain that some areas down stream will be inundated.

Taking the rainfall alone it was unlikely Ayuthia would be flooded. Taking the dam water release alone you may find similar outcome. But when you add up together what will you get?  Yes. River flow is 5fold higher than average.  Just see water level for any river close to you. Just imagine if the level increases by 4 folds.  Do you think it may not reach the top of the river banks?

FYI,  During BKK flooding last year river discharge near river mouth was said to be 4,700m3/s. Average flow of the Chao Pharaya is about 2,200m3/s. It was only three folds higher than the average. I think you know better how much damage 3 folds higher than average flow could inflict.

[David48]

Quote

she (Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra) said, asserting that the flood was not the result of water mismanagement.

So by the defination of the use of the double negative in English ... asserting that the flood was the result of water management

I like the Thais very much ... but the term 'Thai Planning' is an oxymoron.

[Marvo]

So the question is... How long does the water released up north take to get to Ayudhya? If the 48 hour forecast says it's going to rain in Ayudhya, is that too late to reduce the flow from the dams destined to arrive in Ayudhya coinciding with the rain?

[ResX]

Marvo, on 2012-02-09 14:52:07, said:

So the question is... How long does the water released up north take to get to Ayudhya? If the 48 hour forecast says it's going to rain in Ayudhya, is that too late to reduce the flow from the dams destined to arrive in Ayudhya coinciding with the rain?

Short term weather forecast for about 3 days lead time has greater than 80% reliability to predict rainfall scenario. Even 10 days lead time forecast using an outdated forecasting system can score 60% reliability.  This was said by one of the ministers.  The important question have they tried to do it this way? This is not the only way to deal with discharge coordination problem such as this one.

[backtonormal]

whybother, on 2012-02-08 16:24:56, said:

Reasonableman, on 2012-02-08 16:17:10, said:

Should we assume the residents were told of this event and its potential repercussions BEFORE it happened, so that they could prepare?

Wasn't someone saying on here earlier today how well the government had managed the floods?

In the fullness of the time the opinion of the people (well the Thais that I speak to) believe the floods were stage managed by those that cant accept the Peauthai . Normally we would coup who we dont like but thaksins got a few nuts in the vice so they had to have an alternative. 5 agencies running the flood disaster, only have to buy 1 or 2 to hold the job up. As usual i will get slated but then again its hard to give full explanations without fear of handcuffs. Roll on freedom of speech

[rubl]

backtonormal, on 2012-02-09 16:14:01, said:

In the fullness of the time the opinion of the people (well the Thais that I speak to) believe the floods were stage managed by those that cant accept the Peauthai . Normally we would coup who we dont like but thaksins got a few nuts in the vice so they had to have an alternative. 5 agencies running the flood disaster, only have to buy 1 or 2 to hold the job up. As usual i will get slated but then again its hard to give full explanations without fear of handcuffs. Roll on freedom of speech
Who allowed the dams to be  too full before the rainy season. This was planned well in advance because certain people new they would lose the election. If you believe it was the PT fault you should really doubt yourself. PT drowns them and in rides ......... to save them. People dont fall for that no more

Clearly those certain people had a better weather forcasting system than the Thai government.

Anyway who remembers the name of the minister who stepped forward and admitted to be responsable for not releasing water from some dams?

Seems some propaganda machine is in full swing to blame anyone but the current government on flood mis-management

[whybother]

backtonormal, on 2012-02-09 16:09:33, said:

whybother, on 2012-02-08 16:24:56, said:

Reasonableman, on 2012-02-08 16:17:10, said:

Should we assume the residents were told of this event and its potential repercussions BEFORE it happened, so that they could prepare?

Wasn't someone saying on here earlier today how well the government had managed the floods?

In the fullness of the time the opinion of the people (well the Thais that I speak to) believe the floods were stage managed by those that cant accept the Peauthai . Normally we would coup who we dont like but thaksins got a few nuts in the vice so they had to have an alternative. 5 agencies running the flood disaster, only have to buy 1 or 2 to hold the job up. As usual i will get slated but then again its hard to give full explanations without fear of handcuffs. Roll on freedom of speech

The causes of the last floods has been done to death. What we ate discussing now is a new flood.

The PM (who is in charge of flood management) has clearly managed to cause this flood.

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[KRS1]

theblether, on 2012-02-08 18:07:59, said:

Gone, on 2012-02-08 16:46:02, said:

Geeeezzz people give them a break for gods sake.

It's funny how people think that Governments should become magicians when it comes to nature. How could anyone have possibly predicted the latest floods and prepare for that?

It's like saying that Alberta Canada should prepare for a volcanic eruption for god sakes. Yes maybe it could happen but do you think they should start actually preparing for one?

Let's not forget the Big Guy here in Thailand when he invented a machine that could create rain and helped Australia with its drought. There are some smart people involved here don't kid your self. Also did they not already say that they are working with some countries that have exp. with floods to get advice etc?

I'm not sure what half of you people think they should do? Or maybe you have a better laid plan?

Ok a country who was not prone to mass flooding incurred it after years and years of years being populated and now they are dealing with it the best they can I think.

Scientists, Engineers, Governments etc. have all made progress in one way or another and mostly due to trial and error.

Yes maybe the people could have been warned but then again maybe they were. Do you know for sure?

The only people I saw during the mass floods really complaining heavily were the farangs. Us. Most Thai's I saw were laughing and going about their business in their make shift boats etc and still enjoying their life. Yes for sure the ones that suffered the most (fatalities, crops) etc. were suffering but they dealt with it.

After it was over they just wanted compensation for their loss but did not blame anyone for an act of nature.

I for one am glad that the government is trying to deal with preventive maintenance.

+1

At least they are trying

They are not trying. Instead they are putting unqualified comrades in positions of power instead to keep things under their own control.

All they want to be able to do is call the shots how they see it fit.

[wxyz]

It is NOT 'the fullness of the time' that is the problem, it is the fullness of the river.

Edited by wxyz, 2012-02-09 16:48:57.

[belg]

hey we might get flooded in september/october ?  thai solution :  let's have them a little flood now already

[Keith2704]

As this is a man made problem will all the insurance claims now be thrown out ? Corporate and private.

[MikeOboe57]

Gone, on 2012-02-09 12:29:10, said:

And if you foresee this coming again in rainy season you are also entitled to move to higher ground right?

Many thanks for your helpful advice. I'm sure I can find a highway overpass from where I can watch my family's property being slowly turned into useless wet garbage.

[wxyz]

Good thing there are floor drains in the bathrooms,
PM clone would flood her place with these kind of water management skills.

Edited by wxyz, 2012-02-09 22:38:58.

[z12]

Live in Thailand, buy houseboat.

Edited by z12, 2012-02-11 15:54:51.