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Amid chaos, we need unity more than ever
Thanong Khanthong
A theatre of farce is being played out for all to see.
BANGKOK: -- The Pheu Thai Party yesterday presented a proposal to Parliament to create a new Constitution Drafting Assembly. The assembly would comprise 99 people and have 180 days to draw up a new constitution. Over the next 15 days, law-makers will discuss the measure, which would amount to a "constitutional coup".
The red shirts are flexing their muscles. A campaign to amend Article 112 on the lese majeste law, engineered by the Nitirat Group of academics from Thammasat University's Faculty of Law, foreshadows a wholesale rewrite of the Constitution. This endeavour unquestionably aims to redefine the monarchy and other institutions in Thai society. It also openly invites the yellow shirts to a full confrontation for a decisive outcome.
Since Pheu Thai is pushing for a constitutional coup, it is simultaneously trying to pre-empt a military coup. Jatuporn Phrompan, a red-shirt leader and Pheu Thai member, came out to cry wolf - yet again. He quoted an alleged CIA intelligence report as indicating that the Thai military is preparing for a coup in April. This has prompted sharp reaction from General Prayuth Chan-ocha, the Army chief, who denies the rumour as groundless. Defence Minister Sukamphol Suwannathat also shot down Jatuporn's remark. He dubbed Jatuporn as "dek chai Pla Bu" - a deceased boy in Ang-Thong whose father caused a national stir late last year by saying that his son had predicted the destruction of the Bhumibol Dam.
Yesterday morning a car bomb went off in front of a public health office in Pattani province, killing at least one person and wounding another 15. The bomb, hidden in a pickup truck, also damaged buildings, cars and motorcycles. The attack is the latest in the southern region, which has been riven by a complex eight-year insurgency, apparently waged without clearly stated aims.
Thailand's unity is about to be broken through Machiavellian politics and manipulation. The dialectical conflicts are being played out in a series of shock-and-awe events, meticulously timed and executed. "Red-shirt villages" are sprouting up nationwide as if they want to secede as an independent state. The three southern provinces continue to be plagued by daily violence as if the insurgents aspire for independence. Most important, the monarchy, which is the symbolic institution of Thai unity, is under threat of being abolished altogether in the pseudo-name of democracy.
These conflicts in Thailand are happening at a time when the world is going through a most dangerous time. Europe is suffering financial turmoil that could break up the euro zone. Greece is struggling with its reform and indebtedness. Failure to contain the Greek fallout, which began in March last year, could cause a bank run or financial ruin in other weak states such as Ireland and Portugal. The founder of Trends Research Institute, Gerald Celente, has predicted a European financial collapse this year. Mathematically speaking, it is impossible to save Europe. Some US$7.3 trillion in debt is due this year and will need to be rolled over. The European debt domino could topple other dominoes to cause a global depression.
"If you live in Greece, you're in a depression; if you live in Spain, you're in a depression; if you live in Portugal or Ireland, you're in a depression," Celente said. "If you live in Lithuania, you're running to the bank to get your money out as the bank runs go on. In Hungary, there's a depression, and in much of Eastern Europe - Romania, Bulgaria."
The United States will not hesitate to print more money through a third "quantitative easing" programme (QE3). The Federal Reserve could buy up more mortgage-backed securities if US economic weakness persists. Monetary inflation is lurking.
The tension in the Middle East is growing. Syria has become a battleground for both domestic forces and international pressure. Russia and China would not follow the US lead in pushing Syria's regime into the corner. Syria could thus be another Egypt or Libya.
Iran is confronting Israel and the US and other allies, by extension. Tehran has successfully launched a satellite for military intelligence gathering. Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has toughened his stance, voicing defiance against Western sanctions and pledging open retaliation if they are instituted. Last week US Secretary of Defence Leon Panetta expressed concern that, if matters continue, Israel could attempt an air-strike on Iranian nuclear facilities within a month.
If clashes were to flare with Iran, we could see the oil price rise to US$200 a barrel. Thailand is not well prepared to cope with global conflict and possible war, as it continues to be dogged by domestic polarisation. It is time to adopt prudence and refrain from any back-stabbing politics that will in the end do nobody any good.
-- The Nation 2012-02-10
