9 replies to this topic

[webfact]

Experts forecast a decline in Thai rice exports in 2012

BANGKOK, 29 August 2012 (NNT) – The KU-OAE Foresight Center predicts a decline in Thai rice exports for this year, when global rice prices are likely to go down too.

Mr. Charuk Singhapreecha, director of the Kasetsart University-Office of Agricultural Economics (KU-OAE) Foresight Center: KOFC said on Tuesday that Thai rice price has gone up about 20 percent from the same time of last year to an average of 671 US dollars per ton.

The KOFC Director said that the exports of Thai rice are also showing signs of decline, with this year’s export target set at 6.5 million tons because of the 30 million tons of India’s rice stock and the easing of the global demand for rice.

However, he said that the Thai rice trade is seeing some positive signs ahead, including the likely depreciation of the baht, the higher rice demand from China and the drought problems in India and Vietnam, which are Thailand’s major rivals in the rice exports.

Mr. Charuk stated that the recent economic model study has shown that the government’s intervention in the rice business will drive prices up, a scenario that means market mechanism interference and a possible surge in social costs.

He is warning the government to carefully implement its policies in order to help Thailand to excel in the rice trade industry both over short and long terms.

The KOFC also urged Thai rice farmers to focus on growing quality crops, which will be in demand, without over-expanding their production and prolonged state intervention.

For next year, it forecast Thailand will register the total rice production of 25 million tons from 61 million rai of seasonal rice farms.


-- NNT 2012-08-29

[dcutman]

Did these experts just get back from a 6 month holiday or something? I mean this year is pretty much a wrap and this has been a well known fact for quite sometime.

Positive signs for Thai rice exports in the future because of droughts in Vietnam and India. Is not Thailand in a drought as well?
The guys might want to consider getting out of the expert biz.

Edited by dcutman, 2012-08-29 15:45:29.

[jombom]

Contrary to the OP, many experts expect a rise in rice prices, caused by the failure of the American wheat harvest, caused by a severe drought.

[dcutman]

Contrary to the OP, many experts expect a rise in rice prices, caused by the failure of the American wheat harvest, caused by a severe drought.

There we go again with these experts. The American wheat harvest was quite good this year 12% better than 2011. The drought affected corn and soy beans not wheat.

[Sateev]

Meanwhile, if you can't sell it (because of newly non-competitive pricing, thanks to the rice subsidy), why not trade it for Iranian oil, and then thump your chest about how nuclear proliferation should be only for peace?

[uptheos]

The likely depreciation of the baht sounds interesting.

[GentlemanJim]

The KU-OAE Foresight Center

My 5 year old daughter's education is complete, get her out of school and working I say, as she could clearly get a job tomorrow in the KU-OAE Foresight Center. Their prediction is not on quite the same scale as Nostradamus is it.

The likely depreciation of the baht sounds interesting.

It is interesting. All the economic indicators are there and if you have any cash there are a few brokers that will allow you to put your money on USDTHB or GBPTHB etc etc. There could be a lot of money made and my betting is that Thaksin already has 1/2 a billion riding on it. His money will double or treble and after all 'his' Government is setting the financial circumstances that will lead to the inevitable devaluation.

[SantiSuk]

Contrary to the OP, many experts expect a rise in rice prices, caused by the failure of the American wheat harvest, caused by a severe drought.

There we go again with these experts. The American wheat harvest was quite good this year 12% better than 2011. The drought affected corn and soy beans not wheat.

Yes - it was European and Russian wheat that are suffering this year. Seems that a lot of animal feed staples will be going up in price so it must be good news for world rice prices, other things (rice quantities) being equal

[ratcatcher]

Contrary to the OP, many experts expect a rise in rice prices, caused by the failure of the American wheat harvest, caused by a severe drought.

There we go again with these experts. The American wheat harvest was quite good this year 12% better than 2011. The drought affected corn and soy beans not wheat.

Yes - it was European and Russian wheat that are suffering this year. Seems that a lot of animal feed staples will be going up in price so it must be good news for world rice prices, other things (rice quantities) being equal

That little wheat patch just north of the United States has had its best wheat harvest in 16 years, producing about 27 million tons the downside is rapeseed harvests were higher than last year, but still below their 2012 projections. So, not all bad news.
There's a hungry world out there.

[asiawatcher]

What a ridiculous conflicting article.
"forecast a decline in Thai rice"

the Thai rice trade is seeing some positive signs ahead,

the higher rice demand from China