The need for a meaningful discussion thread on the bird flu is apparent. Simply look at the number of views to a previous thread that attempted to have a meaningful discussion on common sense ways to avoid unnecessary exposure to the virus. Although the thread started off as a discussion about pandemics and evolution, it ended in the preventative.
http://www.thaivisa....showtopic=52549
The hope is to pickup where that thread left off.
In the wisdom of the mon’s apparently they closed the thread because some could not resist demonstrating that they lacked the ability to have a meaningful discussion and contribute in a positive way. I sincerely hope that they can find the inner strength to resist their negative posts. Personally for me, once I see that a post is negative, I don’t even bother reading the rest of it and ignore it for what it is. I know I am not the only one who takes that approach.
There are some that suggest that we worry to much, in a point they are right. Worrying solves nothing. However usable knowledge and common sense precautions will help reduce the risk of unnecessary exposure. Some of the news articles I have read suggest a great deal of ignorance in some countries. I saw one clipping that said “Don’t drink the water.” With that level of ignorance coming from an alleged voice of authority leaves me without words on how to respond to it. Perhaps they own a beer brewery.
The risk of the virus changing to a human to human virus has grown significantly now that it has entered the African food chain. Sooner or later it will find the necessary genes to mutate. Before it was limited to somewhat domesticated animals in Asia. Every person that gets infected, the chance of mutation grows. This is being played down by the governments.
There is a great deal we can do to protect ourselves, and we would be fools not to at least take the basic precautions. It can be as simple as staying away from bird droppings or water that may be contaminated with droppings. There is a lot that is not known about the virus.
History has proven some of the best ideas come from people who look at things in a much simpler way. If you wish to add a positive suggestion for discussion on how to best protect ourselves please do so. If you wish to attack any of the people who post, please don’t waste disk space with useless comments as they will most likely be ignored by many if not all. So please don’t confuse no reply for having the last word, it is not even worth the effort to reply as it only provides feed for more negative posts. Not everyone thinks the same way, so to criticize someone for their idea is truly inappropriate. There is always something that can be learned by discussion and not criticism. There are so many voices that are silent in TV because of the negatives. One can understand why they choose a passive roll. I encourage those silent voices to speak. There are a lot of great minds that can and should contribute to this thread.
I would like to think about what things we can do (if any) during daily commutes to and from work. The nature of overcrowded busses and other means of public transportation can easily put a person in close proximity to an infected person. Is an AC bus more dangerous than an open window bus? I don’t think it has been established in the news if the virus can be absorbed through the skin. Does anyone have any information on that? The use of gloves when culling suggest that may be the case. Also some common sense precautions at home or work if you have any. Again I think it would be good to pick up where the other thread left off so if you have particular post you wish to debate in a positive way, please do.
Common Sense On The Bird Flu
Started by John K, 2006-02-28 00:00
#2
Tippaporn
Super Duper Member Posted 2006-02-28 06:47:35
<snip> History has proven some of the best ideas come from people who look at things in a much simpler way. <snip> #3
xbusman
The bus driver Posted 2006-02-28 08:37:47
Right now, the virus only lives in the excrement of infected birds (according to WHO) or within the infected birds. So unless you handle infected birds or are in contact with droppings, to all extents its not transmissable. Even then, its rather hard to get infected, look how widespread it has become in nature without a huge increase from the massive direct contact with poultry in the rural community.
To develop into human to human, it has to be able to replicated in humans without killing them all, and then find a way to get into body moisture to spread via breath, coughs, sneezing. Its not there yet, but getting closer every day. The genome bank reports numerous changes that continue to make it human friendly but that transmission bit remains out of reach. Its one of the things that make flu so nasty, its ability to spread and transmit easily. The good news is that in order to gain this trait, it probably has to become much less lethal. Instead of diving into the lungs and killing the host in five days, it needs to stay in the upper respiratory tract and replicate billions for distribution. SO if it does find a way to go human to human, it will probably follow the rules of other human flu viruses and the same precautions will apply. 1. The single best thing you can do is wash your hands. Typical flu virus can live in the moisture in your hands for up to 48 hours. Sneeze, touch a door knob and you have a source of infection for two days. Its amazing how much we touch our face and our head. Watch the people around you adjust their hair, scratch their nose, tug their ear. Any contact between our hands and face carry the virus to the door. Entry for flu is usually either the eyes or the mouth so keeping our hands clean and away from our head is a big part of the battle. During flu season, wash your hands constantly, dont touch things, use your shoulder to open doors. We are creatures of habit which is what the flu counts on to spread, try changing these habits and be aware and you will soon see the level of vigilance needed during a flu outbreak. 2. For any communicable disease carried by moisture in our exhalations, a respirator will offer a lot of protection. Has to be at least a N95 rated respirator to keep the flu virus out. Lots of medical responders will tell you that typical drug store respirators have a lousy fit and allow unfiltered air in but do 90% of the work by keeping your fingers away from the area around your mouth. Goggles fall in the same category, might be a bad fit but keeps your hands away from your eyes and protects pretty thoroughly. Try to get a respirator with an exhalation valve, the cheap disposables without a valve get really hot and uncomfortable in about 15 minutes. These two simple things can dramatically reduce your chance of catching any flu that is human to human. If H5N1 finds a way to unlock the code, it could be a lot more serious than washing hands and wearing a respirator in public. For something as nasty as H1N1 (Spanish flu) the only answer will be quarantine. Maintaining a quarantined house takes more equipment and trouble than just a respirator and goggles. Without getting crazy for a "potential" problem, a good start is about 40 gallons of bleach to clean and disinfect everything before entering. There is lots of discussion on how to maintain a quarantine easily and cheaply on the net, you can go as quirky as you want but a few gallons of bleach can get you prepared without building underground powerstations. It would help to have a few doses of Tamiflu and maybe Relenza. The way I look at it is that I have caught the flu in the past and even if this one does not come some nasty bug will make the rounds. There is lots of disagreement over Tamiflu but right now its the only medicine that has a chance. Should the virus pick up a real resistance to Tamiflu it will at the same time have a very high probablity of losing its incredible lethality. Its cheap insurance to have a few doses. Be very careful, there is now a huge amount of counterfeit Tamiflu on the market out of China. Check your source very carefully as this counterfeit stuff has no active ingrediants. Washing hands, changing habits, N95 respirator, some bleach, and maybe a few doses of Tamiflu and you have reduced your chances of flu by about 90%. Watching H5N1 go world wide in the past few weeks has been like watching a train wreck in slow motion. For some reason, this bug has a really nasty and tenacious attitude. No one knows if it can make the jump but its sure working hard at it. #4
leisurely
Platinum Member Posted 2006-02-28 09:55:17  We've got a 'bird flu cupbaord'. In it is enough food and water for 2 weeks for the four of us. (Hopefully)!
#5
astral
Two years cancer free Posted 2006-02-28 12:03:25
You have been listening to all the panic crap that is being put out in Europe and the US, haven't you?
 In Thailand we have been living with Bird Flu for over 5 years now. There is no evidence to suggest that eating cooked chicken or eggs is any danger at all. The only people who have been infected with the Bird Flu have been people who work in close contact with the animals. As a foregner you are forbidden to do such work in Thailand, unless you have a work permit......... I am not saying it will not become a greater problem later, but for the time being, Get On With Your Life and ignore people like Oprah, who are only interested in their tv ratings. Edited by astral, 2006-02-28 12:05:14. #6
gisele
Senior Member Posted 2006-02-28 12:40:02
You have been listening to all the panic crap that is being put out in Europe and the US, haven't you? In Thailand we have been living with Bird Flu for over 5 years now. There is no evidence to suggest that eating cooked chicken or eggs is any danger at all. The only people who have been infected with the Bird Flu have been people who work in close contact with the animals. As a foregner you are forbidden to do such work in Thailand, unless you have a work permit......... I am not saying it will not become a greater problem later, but for the time being, Get On With Your Life and ignore people like Oprah, who are only interested in their tv ratings. I agree. I was living in Beijing during SARS. A city of 13 million became a ghost town. However, life went on. You just can't live in fear of life. I'm not saying one should be careless and not be aware of the problem but be sensible. Cautious but not zealot. #7
kurgen
Platinum Member Posted 2006-02-28 13:19:52
IMPORTANT !
Never go with a bird who's got a runny nose  
#8
dash
Advanced Member Posted 2006-02-28 14:13:55
with my virolgical back ground i say that the virus will not become probleme for humans by mutation but by recombination. In an aerosol the membranes of bird flu and human flu viruses join together like soap bubbles. Then we have a membrane coated with human and bird receptors and inside both genetic information. the virus can now reinfect a human cell and the cell is forced to reproduct genetic information as well as membrane receptors, H and N, and new viruses can now mixed together like bird H5N1- RNA within a membrane with human H and N receptors.
I have problemes to understand how a membrane virus from the soil should infect a human respiratory tract cell together with a human virus as the cell should be protected for reinfection by interferon after the first infection. And SARS was an other probleme there was mutation as we see in cat population infected with Coronaviruses. #9
John K
Hypnotic member Posted 2006-03-01 12:50:28
One of the products I can say honestly works and is one of the best investments I made is the Ionic Breeze air cleaner by Sharper image. The top end models have a built in UV light that should help reduce the number of virus particles in the air. Living in Bangkok, removing some of the pollutants from your home can only be a good thing. Bleach is good for contact cleaning, but I think this is a good move if it decides to fly.
On the Tamiflu as a best bet, I have heard that it is not effective on all the variations of the virus. However that is not to say we should not use it. It is true Thailand has been with the bird flu for 5 years, But I am sure it has changed from the first case. The fact that it is snowballing around the world now suggests to me that it has more chances to change or as put recombine into a monster. I just read that a cat in Germany has died from the bird flu. No doubt it ate a sick bird. I wonder what type of animal could bridge the gap between birds and humans. Whatever species it is it is probably in Africa. However the wise thing to do is prepare for the worst, and hope for the best. SARS and the other recent scares have just given us a sample of what it would be like. I see no reason to panic, but taking the necessary precautions is wise. Identifying products that truly can help protect you I feel is very important. Looking at the masks and other things that are being pushed in my mind is just a bunch of opportunists looking to make money from peoples fear. The masks labeled Bird flu masks are exactly the same masks being marketed for bio terrorism. They simply repackaged it. #10
John K
Hypnotic member Posted 2006-03-03 06:18:38
You have been listening to all the panic crap that is being put out in Europe and the US, haven't you? In Thailand we have been living with Bird Flu for over 5 years now. There is no evidence to suggest that eating cooked chicken or eggs is any danger at all. The only people who have been infected with the Bird Flu have been people who work in close contact with the animals. As a foregner you are forbidden to do such work in Thailand, unless you have a work permit......... I am not saying it will not become a greater problem later, but for the time being, Get On With Your Life and ignore people like Oprah, who are only interested in their tv ratings. In the thought that eating infected birds can expose you to the bird flu, I would say that is true only if the bird is not properly cooked. I would think the street vendors who serve chicken and hot Thai, or are setup near a vendor who serves hot Thai food will be first. Simply they handle the raw bird before it is cooked. The spices and peppers used make the hot food make you want to rub your watering eyes. From the posts so far that is half the formula. There is one vendor that comes to mind when it comes to hot. Near the Japanese embassy on Asok there is a vendor who’s cooking is so hot, your eyes are knowing all about it 4 meters away. I swear she adds pepper spay to it. The reflex to rub your eyes is just that a reflex and often occurs without conscious thought. Culling is a good defense from keeping infected chickens out of our food chain, but now with the rapid spread it is becoming more and more difficult as the sources of infection increase. The only logical remaining step is to quarantine the chickens in small groups for longer than the virus incubation period. Only then will you have reasonable knowledge the birds are safe to handle and eat. Keeping the chickens elevated above the droppings is another small measure to reduce the risk. Edited by john Krukowski, 2006-03-03 06:29:19. #11
AmeriThai
Super Member Posted 2006-03-04 08:40:31
I don’t think it has been established in the news if the virus can be absorbed through the skin. Does anyone have any information on that? The use of gloves when culling suggest that may be the case.
Washing hands, changing habits, N95 respirator, some bleach, and maybe a few doses of Tamiflu and you have reduced your chances of flu by about 90%. RAISE THE SOCIAL BAR WITH BOLD NEW COLORS!  There may be a few drawbacks to such fashion in the Land of Smiles, BUT YOU'LL LOOK GREAT!  Tuk-Tuk Driver: Where you wanna go? Farang: Mumph iggle oodee szz frump. Tut-Tuk Driver: Arai nah? Farang: Mumph iggle oodee szz frump. Tut-Tuk Driver: (Drives off muttering) Farang bah baw! This Year, Give The Gift That Shows You Care. GIVE THEM THE FLU!  http://img380.images...ahchoo024ac.jpg #12
John K
Hypnotic member Posted 2006-03-04 11:26:52
It is stories like this that are a bit scary. People not knowing and actually hindering the professionals trying to stop the bird flu.
JAJI, Nigeria (AP) -- Farm hands watched apprehensively, as veterinary officials first drew blood samples from dying chickens and then came back to kill the birds. After tests confirmed Africa's first cases of the deadly H5N1 bird flu strain at a large plantation in Jaji, the suspicions of the largely peasant farm hands from neighboring communities deepened as they watched police marksmen shoot dead 168 ostriches the farm had reared over eight years. When days afterward the workers were invited for tests to check if they were infected by the virus, most of the 160 farm workers of Sambawa Farms fled. "Most of them feared they would end up like the ostriches, to be shot dead for having the virus," said Ibrahim Hassan, one of the more enlightened of the workers. Hassan turned up promptly for medical checks. A wall of distrust between the government and a large majority of the population is posing a major obstacle to fighting bird flu in Nigeria. The campaign there also is hampered by poor infrastructure, lack of resources and vast distances. International experts have looked askance at Nigeria, where H5N1 is believed to have spread widely before it was detected and has since cropped up in neighboring Niger. "The Nigeria authorities took a lot of time to react, allowing the virus to escape," Bernard Vallat, director of the World Organization for Animal Health, said Tuesday at a Paris meeting of bird flu experts. "We won't get out of the crisis in Africa, notably, in a few months. We have to put in at least three years of effort." Monday, Vallat had told the conference the more the virus spreads around the world, "the greater chance of the virus transforming itself into a virus more dangerous for mankind." H5N1 also has been confirmed in Egypt in the north. And Ethiopian officials confirmed Tuesday cases of the H5 group and were sending to Italy samples from some hundreds of chickens that died at a southern poultry farm. Enlisting the poor in the fight against bird flu is crucial to defeating the disease, the international humanitarian group, Action Aid, said last week. Yet evidence shows the poor are being ignored in many countries, the group said. In Nigeria, after decades of misrule by corrupt military and civilian regimes, the 70 percent of the population with little education or income has grown wary of all officialdom. It is the poor who are most at risk from H5N1, which has jumped from chickens to humans in other parts of the world where people, like many Nigerians, lie close to their poultry stocks. In Nigeria, more than 60 percent of the poultry in raised in backyards, running freely with goats, sheep and children. After H5N1 was confirmed at Jaji, Kaduna state officials were quick to announce measures, including a policy to exterminate all birds within a 1.8-mile (three-kilometer) radius. Poor government outreach cited Efforts have, however, been concentrated on commercial farms, with little outreach to villages. A similar pattern has been repeated in the entire northern belt of the country where the presence of the virus has been confirmed in eight states in addition to the capital, Abuja. Three weeks after the virus was discovered at Sambawa farms, no veterinary or health official had visited Birnin Yaro Gari, the village nearest to the large commercial operation, said resident Abdulkadir Birnin. "Our chickens have been dying for a whole month before we heard the problem was from Sambawa," Birnin said. "But until now no one has asked us about our health or that of the birds." Though government has announced plans for compensation, offering the equivalent of $1.80 per destroyed bird, no officials have come to inquire about the thousands of birds that have died in the village. Villagers insist they will not kill their birds and instead watch them die. "When they die we eat them, so that we don't lose everything," said Birnin. "We hear they can give us disease but so far nobody has been sick or dead recently." Veterinary teams chased away Nigerian news media have reported instances of farmers chasing away veterinary teams that came to kill suspect poultry in villages in Bauchi state, where the virus has also been confirmed. The farmers apparently fear they won't be compensated. In Kano, another affected state, some poultry farmers have declared they will resist any attempts to exterminate their poultry until firm compensation arrangements were put in place. To get farm workers to turn up for medical checks, Kaduna state officials promised to pay their transport fares to a clinic in Jaji. More workers turned up on the second day -- only to find the transport fare was not ready. An official apologized for the lapse and promised the money would be paid another day. Afterward Abdulhamid Abubakar, the top Kaduna health official in charge of the government emergency response team for bird flu, praised government efforts as effective and insisted all complaints were being addressed. "We are doing everything we are supposed to do," he said. But many of the farmworkers were not impressed. "You can never trust the people in government," said one who gave his name as Nasiru as he began a 4.3-mile (seven-kilometer) walk back to his village. "I won't come back here another day." #13
solo siam
Super Member Posted 2006-03-04 11:41:24
I'm sure bird flu has been around just about forever, its just that now scientists are making the connection between deaths and the virus.
Its actually quite sickening that so much attention and money is being spent on something that probably wont ever happen purely because its something that could effect the better off in the world. Millions of people die neadlessly of PROPER real diseases which could be prevented if as much thought and money were give onver to them. Its all terribly boring watching people panic over these things, look at SARS - it killed less people than died from eating peanuts in the same period of time/location. #14
John K
Hypnotic member Posted 2006-03-04 12:37:40
I'm sure bird flu has been around just about forever, its just that now scientists are making the connection between deaths and the virus. Its actually quite sickening that so much attention and money is being spent on something that probably wont ever happen purely because its something that could effect the better off in the world. Millions of people die neadlessly of PROPER real diseases which could be prevented if as much thought and money were give onver to them. Its all terribly boring watching people panic over these things, look at SARS - it killed less people than died from eating peanuts in the same period of time/location. The one thing about the bird flu is we have no natural defense to the virus. I believe all the other things you mention we had some sort of counter measures. If I recall correctly SARS was some sort of bacteria and not a virus. People who die from peanuts suffer from an allergic reaction. Keep in mind the people that had the bird flu most of them died. That is what the fear is about. If our bodies could resolve it on our own it would not be such an issue. The few people that survived it had some sort of immunity now and their blood holds the key. That was one of the undying thoughts I had if this was part of evolution as some groups see to have a edge if ever so slight. Also I think the people that survived they were being treated in the early stages before it overwhelmed their body. So the chances of them dying was very high. Given time our bodies will figure out how to fight the bird flu off, however the bird flu does not give us that time as it kills so fast. #15
englishoak
Senior Member Posted 2006-03-05 21:03:53
I am not saying it will not become a greater problem later, but for the time being,
Get On With Your Life agreed #16
John K
Hypnotic member Posted 2006-03-05 21:14:02
I agree we should get on with our lives, but don’t walk with your eyes closed. I am not consumed with this topic, however I prefer to know and avoid exposure as needed.
#17
zzap
muffled poster Posted 2006-03-05 22:04:56
I have really taken up the suggestions that have come about by John Krukowski, C.H. taking on the task of combating the spread of bird-flu and inviting people to contribute.
I avoid water fountains, which could spread the virus, have bought an Ionic air-cleaner in case the virus decides to fly, and convinced the farmers in my community to install grills on their land, so the droppings will be separated from the birds. As a matter of course, I also avoid street vendors who don't wear gloves while handling raw chicken, and those who prepare spicy food which makes people sneeze and rubbing their eyes. Thank you, John. #18
Rigger
Senior Member Posted 2006-03-05 22:31:39
There is little hope in N/E Thailand if the virus ever does get hold as there are still kids walking around in the dirt with chooks and shit all around I even know a farang that lives near by that’s wife cooks out the front of there home and the next door nabours chooks are for ever jumping up on and around the washing up area and dishes. There is no education on bird flu that has come near the village if speak to the locals they laugh and say no have here
I have got things as prepared as possible at home anti viral drug enough to treat 10 people maskes and a large supply of water and rice. But the thing that concerns me most is the chang supply I think I will start stock pile boxes of chang just incase #19
John K
Hypnotic member Posted 2006-03-06 21:17:47
This news story continues to put emphases on dropping being the source of the spread. Based on how much ground it has covered in the last few months, I feel it is beyond the point of simple containment. One point that is brought up in this story is that walking in infected bird droppings can move it from place to place. Unknowingly you could bring the virus into your house. That is of concern. The other point is they simply don’t know that much about it, so one again common sense should apply. So the question now is what is the best way to avoid tracking the virus into your house and how to best clean your shoes.
OZZANO EMILIA, Italy — As new outbreaks of bird flu have peppered Europe and Africa in recent weeks, experts are realizing that they still have much to learn about how migrating birds spread the A(H5N1) virus, leaving the continents vulnerable to unexpected outbreaks. Skip to next paragraph Enlarge This Image Frank Perry/Agence France-Presse/Getty Images A veterinary worker in western France trying recently to vaccinate ibises against a strain of the bird flu virus. Enlarge This Image Michael Kamber for The New York Times A chicken seller in Kano, Nigeria, assuring people last month that a bird was healthy. Thousands of chickens in nearby farms have died recently. After new scientific research published in February clarified the role of wild birds in spreading the disease from its original territory in southern China, the virus promptly moved into dozens of locations in Europe and Africa, following no apparent pattern and upsetting many scientific assumptions about the virus and its course around the world. In fact, knowledge of how the virus is spreading in Europe and Africa is so rudimentary that experts say there is no way of predicting where it will strike next, although they are now certain that it will, again and again. "We know next to nothing about this virus; we have only anecdotal information about where it exists and what birds it infects," said Vittorio Guberti, head veterinarian at the Italian National Institute for Wildlife here in a rural corner of northeastern Italy. He has been studying influenza in wild birds for more than 10 years. "We don't even know where to focus. We have to sit and wait for the big epidemic to occur, and in the meantime there will probably be small outbreaks all the time." Scientists do not know, for example, which species are the major carriers of A(H5N1). While they suspect that there may be a few areas at the fringes of Europe that are perpetually infected with the virus, they are not sure exactly where. And while they are convinced that the virus can be carried on trucks, on soles of shoes and in fertilizer, they are not sure how significant those routes are. "Think about this," Mr. Guberti said in his cluttered laboratory here. "Two million ducks from Nigeria, where there is a big problem, will arrive in Italy. And we don't know a thing about them." Outbreaks in Nigeria have occurred in commercial poultry, but there is no information about whether the disease is in wild birds. Samples from African birds have been shipped to Italy for analysis, but the laboratory has been overwhelmed by samples from Europe, a United Nations official confirmed. If they are infected, North American birds may be vulnerable, too, since some wading birds from Africa will fly as far north as Canada and the United States in the months to come, experts said. While A(H5N1) does not now readily infect humans or spread from person to person, scientists are worried that it could acquire that ability, setting off a worldwide human pandemic. Until this year, Europe's small fraternity of wild bird researchers was severely underfinanced, its warnings about bird flu unheeded. Now the researchers are racing to fill gaps in knowledge and answer crucial questions. In February, new research provided clues about how the A(H5N1) virus broke out of its original stalking grounds in Southeast Asia, moving to western China and on to the edges of Europe late last year. Dr. Guan Yi and his colleagues at the University of Hong Kong reported in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences that some birds infected with A(H5N1) could survive for a week, and so were capable of spreading the disease over vast areas — to China's remote west and to Mongolia, for example. Previously, scientists thought that infected birds would be too sick to cover such distances. From there, A(H5N1) predictably moved on to Russia, Ukraine, Turkey, Romania and the Balkans. But the recent pattern of spread, into European and African nations, has been far more confusing. "For a couple of weeks, it was raining dead swans all over Europe, which left everyone scratching their heads," said Jan Slingenberg, a senior veterinary official at the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization in Rome. Wetlands International, a Dutch nonprofit organization that has sent teams to several African nations to sample wild birds, has made a list of 17 species it believes are particularly likely to spread A(H5N1) in Europe. There is no list for Africa or Asia. Some species, like pigeons, which have provoked angst in European cities, are not particularly susceptible, so there is little point in directing vigilance there, officials said. Mr. Guberti and others say they suspect that there are now permanent reservoirs of the disease on Europe's doorstep, so that birds like the mute swan may pick up the disease every time they enter the Continent. Suspects include the Black Sea and the lower Volga River, areas that have suffered previous outbreaks of A(H5N1), and where mute swans often winter. Nations must identify such reservoirs, Mr. Guberti said, so that scientists can see which birds live there and where they migrate, creating a kind of early warning system. The dead ducks that have been found in various corners of Europe, from Geneva to central Italy and the suburbs of Lyon, have proved even more disquieting to scientists. "It's hard to explain," said Alex Kaat, spokesman for Wetlands International, noting that scientists have no idea whether the ducks got the virus from infected poultry nearby, from mute swans, from another species that is spreading the disease undetected in Europe — or if they are birds making an early migration from infected parts of Africa. While ornithologists think that most of the cases in Europe are tied to migration, they are also quick to note that wild birds are sometimes unfairly blamed, as in Turkey and Nigeria. "It's easy to blame migrating birds, because then no one is responsible," said Juan Lubroth, a senior veterinary health officer at the Food and Agriculture Organization. In Croatia, for example, Mr. Kaat said, fertilizer made of manure from infected poultry probably spread A(H5N1). The manure is commonly used to fertilize fish ponds, which are frequent stopover points for migrating birds that probably contracted the virus there, he said. The virus persists in water for weeks. In Nigeria, the first huge outbreak occurred in January in hens in the north, a dry area far from the wetlands that are home to the country's migratory birds. "The outbreaks were in the wrong place and at the wrong time of year," Mr. Kaat said. Instead, he and others believe, Nigeria's problem was probably caused by the transport of sick birds or bird products infected with A(H5N1) from another country in Africa or even Asia. #20
John K
Hypnotic member Posted 2006-03-16 13:30:46
I noticed in another thread that it is suggested we run. Unfortunately run to where? It is like trying to run from the night. Certainly that is the flight response, however I prefer the fight response given the choice of fight or flight. One thing I did notice over the last week or so the word “if” is disappearing from news reports, and is being replace with a more certain phrases of the impending pandemic. The fact is they don’t know what strain will be the first to become human to human, and because of that it could be 6 months or more before there is a vaccine.
I have been hoping that there would be some additional constrictive ideas to add to this thread ot add to the fight side. The fact that the virus is in droppings, the question is will flies be a source of transmitting the virus as they tend to like walk in s**t and then come visit you. #21
xbusman
The bus driver Posted 2006-03-24 16:08:12
Yes, they are dropping the if. They have found it is now two seperate strains, it can infect cats easily, dogs not so easily, and has spread throughout the world despite the best efforts of culling and vaccinating. Today its in Myanmar and Cambodia and with no infrastructure to speak of they will not have an easy time beating it back.
John, this thing is a virus. In the world of viruses, there is no fight or flight, you can only clean (steralize would be a better word) or create barriers to the microbe. If this thing goes human to human, its going to be carried and spread in the moisture of your breath. If that happens, its all a matter of math and time, no fighting, and no time to flee. So, the clean bit is covered, lots of information on washing your hands, how to sneeze in a tissue, using bleach to disinfect clothing and shoes. In asia, we are already at a great advantage by just removing shoes before we enter homes or some offices. Barriers can be more complicated but masks, gloves, goggles are about the sum of it until you set up disinfecting at that door or get into the biosuits that WHO is using. Here is a great article in Time I agree with. I think this author has a good understanding of the problem. For the virus to go human to human, it just HAS to give up this terrible mortality. You dont get sown if you kill the sower violently and almost immediately. They are also learning that a big part of the lethality is that this virus heads for the lower lungs almost immediately where it kills, to get spread it has to hang around in the throat or a runny nose for a few days before heading off for the final meal. If it stays out of your lungs for a few days, you have a chance to fight it off, so by definition there will be a lower mortality. So with lower mortality (they use 5%) that means 95% will survive. The real problem then, for the survivors, is keeping our society on track. Thats where the fight will come. Personally, I think our odds of working through that are much much better in Thailand. Count on plenty of rice being available and no chance of freezing to death. Heck, I lose power here on a regular basis so thats no big deal. Probably our biggest challenge will be prescription medicines for those that must have them. In my opinion, this is about the best well reasoned article I have seen in a long time. Quote The Bird Flu: How Much Fear Is Healthy? As the government warnings mount, an expert explains how we need to prepare for a possible pandemic By CHRISTINE GORMAN SUBSCRIBE TO TIMEPRINTE-MAILMORE BY AUTHOR * TIME Blog: Global Health Update Posted Wednesday, Mar. 15, 2006 The official warnings about bird flu have been growing scarier in the past few days. In a speech last Sunday, Health and Human Services Secretary Mike Leavitt advised folks to stock up on tuna fish and powdered milk in case the bird flu virus mutates into a form that could easily infect people. Agriculture Secretary Mike Johanns recently told reporters, "It would be almost biblical to think we would be protected." Then there was Robert Webster, the noted flu virologist from St. Jude Children's Research Center, who said on national television Tuesday night that he had a three-month supply of food and water in his house in case bird flu becomes a serious human pandemic. Scientists and government officials are usually supposed to calm people down, but these authorities seem to be trying to provoke greater fear, even a little panic. This is not necessarily such a bad thing, says Peter Sandman, a risk communications consultant based in Princeton, N.J., who has advised HHS officials in the past not to be too concerned about alarming the public when trying to educate them to a new danger. "When they were listening to me many months ago, they didn’t agree with me," Sandman says. What happened to apparently change the attitude? President Bush read The Great Influenza, a book by John Barry about the devastating 1918-1919 pandemic. Then Hurricane Katrina devastated the Gulf Coast and revealed the consequences of poor or nonexistent planning. Sandman argues that it’s hard to rouse folks from their usual day-to-day routine to prepare for a new threat without also triggering alarm. Besides, a little bit of panic helps folks prepare emotionally for what the future may hold. It’s a necessary kind of "adjustment reaction," he says, that allows folks to think about what they can and cannot do, so that when the crisis comes they don’t just dissolve into despair and inaction. "This is the hardest kind of risk to focus on because it’s potentially huge but nobody knows if it will happen or how big it will be," the consultant says. One possibility is that bird flu will mutate and start infecting people easily, but the result is only a mild pandemic, like the flu pandemic of 1968. (Many people who were alive then still aren’t aware they lived through a pandemic.) In that case, people will wonder what all the fuss was about. But another possibility is that the pandemic will be severe—as bad as the 1918 pandemic or even worse. In such a worst-case situation, being prepared could mean the difference between life and death. The biggest problem, many experts believe, will not be the availability of medical care, but all the bottlenecks and breakdowns that will occur because so many people are sick or staying home from work because they fear getting sick. People need to think about the possibility of these disruptions now, Sandman argues. What if you couldn’t get to a pharmacy for three months to fill a prescription for high blood pressure medication, placing you at greater risk of a heart attack or stroke? Have you thought about where and how you’d take care of someone in your family who got sick, to avoid infecting anyone else in the house? What if enough truck drivers who deliver chlorine to water treatment plants get sick that the water in your community is no longer treated? Is there a stock of water that you could rely on in such an emergency? Now might be a good time to get to know your neighbors better, since you may be depending on their kindness for deliveries of food. What’s the plan at your local church, school or office in the event of a human pandemic? "We can do something about this," Sandman says. "We can stockpile chlorine for water treatment plants. We can make sure we have enough energy so we don’t freeze to death. We can do something for people with chronic conditions." Imagining the possibilities helps you to prepare emotionally and to figure out what precautions are reasonable to take. "You’re not completely ready, but you’re readier. You’re as ready as you can be." Even if a severe pandemic occurs, Sandman points out, most people would probably survive. "Let’s say it kills 5% of infected people, which is twice as bad as 1918," he says. "That still means that 95% of people who get the flu have two weeks of hel_l and then they get better. And when they get better, long before the government makes a vaccine, they’ll be immune." We should then figure out how to gather these immunized folks, Sandman says, into volunteer groups to do the jobs—like food and water deliveries — that might be needed as the pandemic progresses. Sandman has some advice for journalists covering the bird flu as well: stop focusing so much on birds and other animals that get infected. "The problem with people focusing on bird flu and not a pandemic among humans is that as long as there’s no bird flu in town, they think they’re safe. We really need people to understand that it’s not about the birds. You’re not at any greater risk after a bird is found to be infected and you’re not any safer before an infected bird is found." The key moment will come if and when the bid flu mutates in such a way as to infect humans. Then it won't matter where the infected birds are; the new strain will quickly circle the globe. #22
John K
Hypnotic member Posted 2006-03-26 09:43:09
A Very good and objective piece. I respect your point of view, but allow me to clarify what I was saying. Essentially washing your hands even though seemingly insignificant is part of the fight response. The flight response is just put your tail between your legs and run to hide. That is how it is on the simple level. We all have it within us. To be off topic for a moment, look at what is happing in Thailand with the political situation. The Thais are fighting to save there country from a dictatorship that is pretending to be a democracy (or so the scores of protestors say). So we all have it within us have the desire to survive. So the fight or flight response is part of our survival instincts. We should not view the people who look to run as cowards, and we should not view the people who look to fight as foolish. Simply that response is based very deep in the subconscious.
I have been reading that one of the things at the moment is the virus likes the lower respiratory system and not the upper where coughs and sneezes could propel the virus airborne. Apparently there are different shaped receptors in the upper and lower system, and the virus at the moment cant attach to cells in the upper system. So that one minor change is how far away the pandemic is. As you mentioned washing hands is a good way to protect yourself. I would think that antibacterial soap would not make much of a difference as the virus is not a bacteria. I seem to recall a product for washing your hands that was a packet that had a scented fragrance that was alcohol based. I suspect having a few of them handy may be a plus. I could even envision the hot air hand driers you find in public restrooms fitted with a UV light as another layer of defense. As you dry your hands the UV light deals with any viruses that are still on your hands after washing. Perhaps I should run off to the patent office now. #23
John K
Hypnotic member Posted 2006-04-06 07:09:59
Over the last several weeks the vast majority of birds that have been reported having the bird flu have been water fowl. I don’t know if this is because they tend to be wild or water is becoming a major source of transmission. At any rate take care during Songkran.
#24
kyselak
Senior Member Posted 2006-04-06 18:13:42
Amid bird flu panic, lifestyle diseases to kill 27 million Asians a
year by Neil Western HONG KONG, April 5, 2006 (AFP) - Bird flu has the world in a flap, but health experts say more must be done to combat a far bigger problem -- chronic "lifestyle diseases" that will kill 270 million Asians over the next decade. While governments are finding cash and devising plans to prevent a possible flu pandemic, critics say little is being done to tackle the region's biggest killers such as cancer, diabetes and respiratory and heart disease. "There has been a preoccupation with AIDS and more recently bird flu, but diabetes has been escalating. It's a timebomb," said professor Paul Zimmet, director of the International Diabetes Institute based in Australia. "In Australia, 170 million dollars (123 million US) has been committed to tackle a (bird flu) epidemic which may or may not happen, but we have a huge diabetes problem and there may be five million dollars spent annually. It's completely disproportionate," he said. As the UN marks World Health Day on Friday, countries such as India and China are bracing for a worsening health crisis from chronic diseases that already claim more lives than infectious diseases such as malaria, AIDS and tuberculosis. With rising prosperity in many parts of Asia, people are adopting unhealthy lifestyles that their bodies cannot cope with. Sedentary jobs, poor diet, smoking and alcohol are all blamed for the dramatic health shift. India leads the world in diabetes cases. A government study estimated the number of diabetics to be about 38 million in 2004, and projected to rise to 57 million in 2025. By 2020, the number of deaths each year due to chronic diseases in the country of 1.1 billion people may stand at 7.63 million (66.7 percent of all deaths). "Lifestyle diseases ... have already become the number one killer in India," said D. Prabhakaran, a professor at the department of cardiology at the All India Institute of Medical Sciences. "The most important factors for lifestyle diseases are increasing consumption of tobacco, dietary consumption of fats, particularly saturated fat, lack of physical activity and inadequacy of stress-coping mechanisms," he said. According to the World Health Organization (WHO), 270 million people in Asia will die from chronic disease between 2005 and 2015, mostly poor people in low income countries such as China, India, Pakistan and Indonesia. That represents a rise in deaths from chronic disease of 17 percent while the region will see a 10 percent fall in those killed by infectious diseases, antenatal and postnatal complications and malnutrition over the same period. Asia has an estimated 8.3 million HIV/AIDS cases, while bird flu has killed 108 people out of 191 cases worldwide since the latest outbreak began in Asia in late 2003. Chronic diseases are not just seen as a problem of the newly emerging wealthier classes. "Seven hundred million people in the region are living on a dollar a day ... but at the same time because of economic growth the same people have access to an unhealthy diet," said Choi Daewon, head of the health and development section of the UN's Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific (ESCAP). Zimmet, while stressing he did not want to minimise the threat of other diseases, said diabetes had gone from virtually non-existent to Western levels in China within 25 years, and within 10 years in Cambodia, one of the world's poorest countries. In China, where smoking is rampant, almost four in five deaths are caused by chronic diseases according to the WHO. WHO spokeswoman in Beijing Aphaluck Bhatiasevi said small-scale public health campaigns on tobacco use, diabetes and nutrition had reaped rewards in recent years and the organisation was working with the Ministry of Health on national plans to prevent and control chronic disease. But with respiratory diseases accounting for 17 percent of deaths, she said smoking remained the most pressing problem despite China last year ratifying the WHO Framework Convention on Tobacco Control. Steps such as banning smoking in public places and banning tobacco ads was "a major challenge for the country, because a large amount of revenue of the country also comes from sales of tobacco," she said. The economic cost of chronic diseases will run into trillions of dollars, experts say. A WHO report released last October estimated that over the next decade losses could hit 558 billion dollars in China and 236 billion in India. Many Asian governments, however, spend relatively little on public healthcare and a small percentage of that goes towards prevention of lifestyle diseases. India at present spends 0.65 percent of GDP on health, though it aims to increase it to two percent of GDP by 2010. Choi said many governments in Asia devoted far less than five percent of GDP to health, but said simply spending more was not the only solution. "Governments must not just look at the curative approach, but also preventative," he said, adding that public education, legislation and private sector self-regulation were all necessary tools to battle the problem. Prabhakaran said while anti-tobacco laws introduced in many countries were a positive step, much more needed to be done. "Increasing awareness about lifestyle diseases is important. We need to control diabetes and blood pressure," he said. "We need to target young children, catch them young and ensure exercise is incorporated into their day to day activity." AFP 060659 GMT APR 06 #25
kyselak
Senior Member Posted 2006-04-07 15:58:14
No sign bird flu becoming more infectious -expert
By David Brough CAMBRIDGE, England, April 6 (Reuters) - A leading bird flu expert said on Thursday there was no evidence that the virus was showing any signs of mutating into a form that would be more infectious in humans. But Ian Brown, head of avian influenza at Britain's Veterinary Laboratories Agency, an official lab that tests for the virus, also said that it was extremely difficult to track bird flu as it mutated. Although hard for humans to catch, scientists fear bird flu could mutate into a form that can pass easily between humans, causing a pandemic. Brown was asked by Reuters if the bird flu virus is showing any signs of mutating into a form that would be more infectious in humans. "There is no evidence at the moment," he said. "We know that this virus will mutate under normal circumstances, but we have to stress that we don't understand fully what would make this virus more dangerous." Brown was speaking as tests showed that a wild swan found dead in Scotland had the lethal H5N1 strain of bird flu. Britain becomes the 14th country in the European Union to find on its territory a disease that has been blamed for 109 human deaths elsewhere since 2003. Bird flu remains essentially an animal disease, but can infect people who come into direct contact with infected birds. Speaking after a symposium on bird flu attended by veterinary scientists from around the world, the symposium's co-chair Illaria Capua, based at a laboratory in Padua, Italy, was asked about the possible threat of infections of bird flu in cats. "The infection of cats is in fact a limited occurrence, which is due to the spillover of infection from birds," Capua said. Brown said there was little research into the threat of the spread of bird flu from cats. "It would be highly speculative without any scientific data to make a statement on what threat that poses for the future," he said. "Where you don't have infection in poultry or wild bird populations extensively, the risk of infection in cats is low and that has been demonstrated," he said. "There has been no evidence of human infection as a result of exposure to infected cats." 061818 Apr 06 ENDOFMSG |
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