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Don Mueang by-election expected to be very tight


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#1 webfact

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Posted 2013-06-12 06:21:48

DON MUANG BY-ELECTION
Poll expected to be very tight

Praphan Jundalertudomdee
The Nation

30208118-01_big.jpg?1370992708999
Democrat candidate Tankhun Jitt-itsara, centre, spends time with Don Muang residents as part of his election campaign. Party leader Abhisit Vejjajiva has accompanied him on several occasions.

Democrat candidate's dedication to locals may earn him more votes

BANGKOK: -- The Don Muang by-election is expected to be a neck-and-neck race between the Pheu Thai and Democrat Party candidates.


In fact, it is expected to be so tight that observers have not been able to predict the outcome, with many even saying that the opinion polls are incorrect.

On Sunday, however, we will learn whether it is the government or the opposition that will get another seat in Parliament.

The ruling-Pheu Thai Party is fielding former teen heartthrob Yuranunt Pamornmontri, while the Democrats have nominated actor Tankhun Jitt-itsara.

Tankhun previously lost to the now red-carded Pheu Thai MP Karun Hosakul by 8,000 votes in 2011. During the Bangkok gubernatorial election this year, Pheu Thai candidate Pol General Pongsapat Pongcharoen won 40,073 votes in the Don Muang constituency compared to Governor Sukhumbhand Paribatra's 28,092 votes.

Over the past few years, the ruling party has repeatedly won in this obviously pro-red district. So it is obvious that most observers would place their bets on Yuranunt.

But then again, Don Muang district today is different and Yuranunt has certain weakness that cannot be overlooked.

First of all, he has no political base in the district even though his house registration papers now say he hails from the area. In comparison, Tankhun has worked diligently on garnering local support, especially during the 2011 flood crisis.

Also, the fact that municipal councillors are under the Democrat banner makes one doubt the prediction of a Pheu Thai victory.

Many pollsters are also shifting their focus on Tankhun emerging as a winner, prompting Pheu Thai to boost the number of its door-to-door campaign teams from nine to 27.

Clearly, Pheu Thai has reason to be afraid, especially since its opinion polls, which have come out with accurate predictions time after time, seem to have lost their magic.

Another indicator might be the candidates' presence in cyberspace. Tankhun regularly tweets messages and photographs and has 40,000 followers.

Plus, his Facebook page is regularly updated to woo young voters who are addicted to social media.

Yuranunt, on the other hand, has not sent out a single tweet, which means he is at least one step behind the competition.

Hence, it is perhaps safe to believe that the Don Muang by-election might end up being a repeat of the Bangkok governor's election.


-- The Nation 2013-06-12



#2 jcb2001

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Posted 2013-06-12 07:19:44



My concern is: Will Pheu Thai attempt to sway the election by buying votes like they do in Isaan? I hope the residents of Don Muang will resist the temptation to be bought and let real democracy rule the land.

#3 iancnx

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Posted 2013-06-12 09:37:08

Hopefully the DM voter will have been exposed to enough truths to be able to decide against Yaranunt. Unlike many parts of rural Thailand they have a better choice of media to choose from, newspapers on every corner, and a chance to converse with their neighbours and work mates from all sides of the political divide. I should be very surprised if the Dems don't go close.

#4 hellodolly

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Posted 2013-06-12 10:24:09

"Hence, it is perhaps safe to believe that the Don Muang by-election
might end up being a repeat of the Bangkok governor's election."

 

That would be great the Bangkok governor's election was a rout.

With results like that there is a slim outside chance the PTP might get the message they are not wanted and change their tactics towards policies designed to help Thailand not line their pockets with money.



#5 rubl

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Posted 2013-06-12 13:09:25

If it goes like in the Bangkok governor election it is more likely that some rather not vote than vote Democrat party. That doesn't help the Pheu Thai party candidate either.



#6 Robby nz

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Posted 2013-06-12 13:32:05

Should the Dems win then PT would have to seriously look at their chances in a national election.

 

There seems little doubt that the so called 'social media' via the internet plays an increasing part in peoples awareness of what goes on in the country.

 

Even in the last 2 years since the last election people have had increasing access to the internet all over the country, making it more difficult to hide things that a Government may not want known.

 

Statements and actions that in the past may not have got any publicity are getting round the country and the world very quickly.

 

A great example of this was the reds actions in Lampang which never got a mention in the newspapers but were on facebook as they were happening.

 

Now as we see the 'minister of Vice' or whatever his title is, was forced to make a statement.



#7 winstonc

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Posted 2013-06-12 13:44:09

remember all governments suffer a protest vote,like the uk,mid-term,,,,,,just a piont of view form a non voting farang,,,



#8 GentlemanJim

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Posted 2013-06-12 14:09:40

remember all governments suffer a protest vote,like the uk,mid-term,,,,,,just a piont of view form a non voting farang,,,

 

I think they have already had their token 'protest vote', there could be a pattern setting up now ;)



#9 rubl

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Posted 2013-06-12 15:58:15

Just started to rain again. Lots last night as well. Let's hope the 15/16 will be dry otherwise we get all kind of funny comments on the effect of rain on elections in a flood prone area rolleyes.gif

 

EDIT: correct weekend wai.gif


Edited by rubl, 2013-06-12 16:17:24.


#10 bigbamboo

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Posted 2013-06-12 16:03:41


Will Tankhun's dedication to the locals outweigh Yuranunt's (spelling?) dedication to the BB....?

#11 whybother

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Posted 2013-06-12 16:06:04

Just started to rain again. Lots last night as well. Let's hope the 22/23 will be dry otherwise we get all kind of funny comments on the effect of rain on elections in a flood prone area :-)

 

Not sure why rain the week after the election would have any effect.  tongue.png



#12 rubl

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Posted 2013-06-12 16:19:29

 

Just started to rain again. Lots last night as well. Let's hope the 22/23 will be dry otherwise we get all kind of funny comments on the effect of rain on elections in a flood prone area :-)

 

Not sure why rain the week after the election would have any effect.  tongue.png

 

 

Weekend corrected, Election Commission agreed to postponement thumbsup.gif

 

PS my internet connection has been doing flipflops every 5 minutes since it started to rain. Mind you, I'm out in the sticks, khet Dusit near Sukhothai Rd. in Bangkok that is biggrin.png


Edited by rubl, 2013-06-12 16:19:53.


#13 waza

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Posted 2013-06-12 19:05:05

Seem the prediction of a PTP landslide win have been premature.



#14 waza

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Posted 2013-06-12 19:11:43

"Hence, it is perhaps safe to believe that the Don Muang by-election
might end up being a repeat of the Bangkok governor's election."

 

That would be great the Bangkok governor's election was a rout.

With results like that there is a slim outside chance the PTP might get the message they are not wanted and change their tactics towards policies designed to help Thailand not line their pockets with money.

Thaksin is more likely to shoot the messenger rather accept any blame for his leadership or policies



#15 SOTIRIOS

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Posted 2013-06-12 20:42:54

...when you run the country...and everything else...with all the peoples money at your disposal.....how could you lose....

 

...but......make it close...to not raise any suspicions...and announce it beforehand...



#16 bigbamboo

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Posted 2013-06-12 20:47:09



Looks like it will be very close with PT winning by just a few million baht.

#17 rubl

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Posted 2013-06-16 02:03:41

I expect a nice new topic in five / six hours time. No rain this Saturday, maybe a nice sunny Sunday. The weather forecast doesn't mention any flooding. Let's hope the electorate will let their voice be heard.


Edited by rubl, 2013-06-16 02:04:00.


#18 Robby nz

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Posted 2013-06-16 05:10:49

It must be pretty important to PT, more important indeed than what will happen to the rice mountain.

 

I see that Yingluck was lending her support to their candidate instead of chairing the Rice Policy Committee she made herself chairperson of.



#19 iancnx

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Posted 2013-06-16 10:58:46

Is there a live blog on the Internet giving progress? I know in Thai of course. Would get my missus to monitor it..... Or any channel covering on GMM or Truevisions?

#20 Robby nz

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Posted 2013-06-16 16:38:15

Mrs says that after voting has closed it looks like the Dem man has won.

 

Nothing certain as yet, we wait to see.



#21 Robby nz

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Posted 2013-06-16 16:41:29

Latest from the Mrs who is watching apparently live.

 

Very close only about 5or 600 difference at this point



#22 Robby nz

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Posted 2013-06-16 16:54:15

Preliminary results from polling booths coming in now and all very close, most within a thousand either way.

 

Totals at present No8 26261, No9 24491



#23 rubl

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Posted 2013-06-16 16:59:01

Preliminary results from polling booths coming in now and all very close, most within a thousand either way.

 

Totals at present No8 26261, No9 24491

 

If I remember correctly #8 is the Democrat party candidate and #9 the Pheu Thai party candidate?

 

BTW like with the BKK governor elections I expect a larger number of invalid votes. From red-shirts who don't like the PT candidate but don't want to vote Dem's either.


Edited by rubl, 2013-06-16 17:00:23.


#24 Robby nz

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Posted 2013-06-16 17:18:59

Latest update from the Mrs

 

No 8 30218

No 9 28280



#25 Robby nz

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Posted 2013-06-16 17:28:12

 With 4 polling places yet to be included totals now

 

No 8 31,823

 

No 9 29,735.

 

That is a total of 61,585 out of an estimated total voters of 70,000 assuming a 70% voter turnout of 100,000 eligible voters.







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