Thaksin Overthrown In Army Coup

Today is a holiday in Thailand so I am going golfing. I hope I get another hole-in-one.  This holiday was brought about by a, yawn., political reform activity.  I hesitate to use the word "coup" because every email I get from overseas "wishes we us well during this time."  I prefer this local word "patiroop", which means reform, not "patiwat" which means coup or revolution.  Actually I did not go golfing today. I went to a business meeting.  Traffic was pretty light.

Let me give you a real live comparison.  Several years ago there was a protest in front of the US Embassy over some forgettable issue.  There must have been all of 50 people involved.  It was a non-event here and I don't think it made local TV.  But as it was shown on CNN, it must have looked very ominous and I got a lot of email and calls from overseas.  My reply then was "what? Who? Where?"

Not to trivialize the current situation, the effect is much more far reaching.  More to the good overall than bad.  Very good locally as it looks like the political stalemate has come to an end.  Very bad internationally as it affects image and tourist trade business.  But I understand the bars were still packed with tourists last night.

As to the questions of democracy.  Everyone outside of Thailand from Finland to Australia has expressed "concern for democracy".  Kofi Anan said "I don't have the details but this is not a practice to be encouraged."  He got the first part right that he does not have the details and I might add: the background to understand.  This, in fact, will promote "fair" democracy as opposed to "bought" democracy. As you probably heard, the current PM, Thaksin "won a land slide victory" in the last snap election in April designed to show support for his government via democratic means.  Snap election can be called by the PM if it has to dissolve the government due to a no-confidence vote in the parliament or if they feel that the situation warrants it.  By calling for a quick election, the opposition rarely has time to form an opposing team with enough votes.  This is what happened and was later overturned by the Election Committee resulting in another up-coming election.  The form of government in Thailand is "Constitutional Monarch".  Kind of like England, but different and beyond the scope of this email.  In the last election every local educated person knows that the votes that could not be bought (in BKK and other major cities which are in the minority) went again Thaksin.  Votes that could be bought in the rural area went for him. Guess who won. Buying votes include some legal specific projects targeted strictly for putting money at provincial level for party members to "fund" votes.  I am sure the November election will be moved forward.  May be the military can also eliminate illegal voting practices.

The history of Thailand is awashed with "coup" activities.  Most bloodless,like this one. I was in the middle of the last coup about 13 years ago. There was a lot of blood spilt then, but after 3 days it stopped after the King said enough already. By comparison this one is pretty tame.
Rumours was already circulating by 10PM last night of pending coup.  News blackout took place around midnight.  We're pretty much back to normal now.
News is back on TV.  Since Thaksin has decided to take up residence in England things will move pretty quickly back to normal.  The military has announced that within 2 weeks it will appoint an interim civilian PM, update the constitution and hold an election as soon as possible.

In the long term this will help Thailand get back to business instead having no way out of the political situaion legally or democratically.  This is call a Thai Coup.

What should you do?  Take advantage of what surely will be a slip in the Bahts vs Dollar rate.  Take a trip to Thailand now or at least buy Thai Bahts in preparation.  Once you get here you may find even better deals in hotels as those who do not understand Thai politics stay away in droves.

See you soon in Bangkok?

Steve