planr

gand, on 2012-05-24 20:29:52, said:

HSR was first pushed in the early-mid 1990s around the time Thaksin entered politics but was then dropped after the 1997 financial crisis. It is unlikely he has been pushing it since the beginning. The most recent round of promotion for HSR really started picking up steam in 2008 under the PPP-led Samak administration. Some initial preliminary feasibility work was undertaken and the idea kept kicking around through Abhisit's administration, even going as far as a Market Sounding event. As there is a lot of money at stake and genuine interest from the Chinese (and less so the Japanese) in terms of financing, it makes political sense to keep it alive.

From a rational perspective, high speed rail is unnecessary in Thailand. The proposed budget for HSR should be used to accelerate the current double-tracking and rehabilitation efforts currently underway nationwide. This would lead to increased benefits in logistics (very important) and some small gains in passenger service. Certain corridors like Bangkok to Rayong could be provided with an upgraded passenger service such as an electrified meter-gauge system traveling around 150 km/h using existing tracks or just extending the Airport Link from Suvarnibhumi down south.

Also - the only rail connection Thailand will ever have with Burma is through Kanchanaburi to the new Dawei Port development, and even that's not a guarantee.

The Chinese do wants to connect Thailand (down to Singapore) with the mainland (Kunming / Yunnan) by going through Laos. This is the rationale behind the Bangkok - Nongkhai HSR route mentioned in the press release.

hotandhumid, on 2012-05-22 13:03:09, said:

Don't forget the ubiquitous "ooohhhhh hhoooooooooos"

retiringinthailand, on 2012-05-22 18:43:10, said:

Economic Feasibility is an integral component of the proposed feasibility study. First the technical elements are analyzed, then a demand forecast, then a cost estimate, then an analysis of the Economic and Financial Internal Rates of Return.

Towards the end of the previous administration (Dec 2010 to be exact), an HSR market sounding session was held to share very preliminary information on what you discuss above. I will share the information I gathered from that gathering below as it pertains to your questions

1) The projected fare for the full (one-way) trip from BKK to Chiang Mai was 1,200 baht

2) The projected ridership in the first year (indicated as 2017 when these figures were released) would be just shy of 30,000 people per day. Note that this includes people boarding / alighting at various stops along the way. To put this in perspective, in 2010, about 7,500 people per day flew between Bangkok and either Chiang Mai, Phitsanulok, or Sukhothai. As HSR will draw people out of cars, and to a lesser extent buses and SRT rail, the 30,000 figure may be reasonable

3) Unknown but unlikely

4) The English-language Thai press often leaves much to be desired, does it not?

For what it's worth, wholesale refinery prices are only up a few baht per litre (for diesel, gasoline, gasohol) over the last six months. What you see at the pump has more to do with PT fooling with the various taxes / levies associated with each fuel type to meet campaign promises and then re-adjust to reality where cutting the taxes is a bad idea.