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jayjay0, on 2010-07-28 11:53:26, said:
blaze, on 2010-07-28 10:49:20, said:
OzMick, on 2010-07-28 10:07:44, said:
In any rationalization of a mindless bombing; the first question should be "Who gains?"
Military - why would the upcoming leadership change be altered in any way by a minor bomb attack? Is there any advantage to the military by prolonging the SOE?
Government (Democrats) - They have just had an expected win in a by-election (a bomb BEFORE may have increased their vote). Tourism and national stability is likely to be negatively affected. SOE extension may give them more argument to stall elections to the due date, but they have reasonable cause to do that already. If it was an attempt to smear the opposition, why not a phone call claiming responsibility in their name?
PTP - Has made a statement that they will co-operate with the reconciliation plan AFTER the SOE is lifted. A delay in lifting it may be desirable to them if they are wishing to appear reasonable but don't want to co-operate.
Yellows - Have kept a low profile lately. Not likely to affect upcoming court cases. A smear attempt, without a fake responsibility claim?
TS - happy birthday Mr President. Maybe an exclamation mark to the "keep up the struggle" statement.
Reds - Angry over election loss? Keeping the sponsor happy? A continuation of the "democracy" fight?
Take your pick. I find it sad though that a man has died, several badly injured, and Thailand damaged, for so little gain.
Military - why would the upcoming leadership change be altered in any way by a minor bomb attack? Is there any advantage to the military by prolonging the SOE?
Government (Democrats) - They have just had an expected win in a by-election (a bomb BEFORE may have increased their vote). Tourism and national stability is likely to be negatively affected. SOE extension may give them more argument to stall elections to the due date, but they have reasonable cause to do that already. If it was an attempt to smear the opposition, why not a phone call claiming responsibility in their name?
PTP - Has made a statement that they will co-operate with the reconciliation plan AFTER the SOE is lifted. A delay in lifting it may be desirable to them if they are wishing to appear reasonable but don't want to co-operate.
Yellows - Have kept a low profile lately. Not likely to affect upcoming court cases. A smear attempt, without a fake responsibility claim?
TS - happy birthday Mr President. Maybe an exclamation mark to the "keep up the struggle" statement.
Reds - Angry over election loss? Keeping the sponsor happy? A continuation of the "democracy" fight?
Take your pick. I find it sad though that a man has died, several badly injured, and Thailand damaged, for so little gain.
I agree that the government would have little reason to actively engage in acts like this. I believe that Abhisit for one, genuinely wants this SoE put to bed.
The PTP could probably win the next election- but right now- at least in Bangkok, they are pretty much prohibited from engaging (as all parties are) in political rallies so I think that their stake in having the SoE is at best minimal.
The Yellows? I agree with you- they have enough problems right now.
TS? I think most reds are genuinely pretty convinced that this reds were NOT involved in this. So if that is Thaksin's goal- he failed miserably.
The Reds? They got the election result they anticipated. They also got the 'victim' status that they crave. So this would really be shooting themselves in the foot.
You say
TS? I think most reds are genuinely pretty convinced that this reds were NOT involved in this. So if that is Thaksin's goal- he failed miserably."
The problem with a statement like that is you use a group that does any thing they want and then announces the government did it or ignores it.
Not sure where you come from but here in Chiang Mai they have predicted that this was a option that they werfe going to pursue. It is really bad now they are not working together and will blow themselves up as well as you or me. They really don't care. There parent's can now say and mean it they are really sorry for these actions but they no longer can control the tiger they have worked long and hard to build.
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