Naam, on 2012-05-22 10:52:36, said:
farang000999, on 2012-05-22 08:22:07, said:
as far as "manageable" is concerned we have to find a definition. definitely out of question is that the US will be able in future to service its debt the way as creditors are used too. but then, the US is in good company as there are dozens of countries which won't be able to service their debt according to the book and the old judicial latin expression "pacta sunt servanda!" (agreements must be kept) .
but i don't believe in any default and huge haircuts à la shitty countries such as Argentina, Ecuador and Greece, just to name a few (many more defaulted). my personal view is that the Bernankes (plural) will find a way to reduce their debt in a more "elegant" way by some sort of salami tactics (slice after slice).
the only way a layman (like me) sees, is to monetise/reduce debt by gradual inflation. i'm of course well aware that the majority of resident macroeconomic experts disagree with my view because "gradual" means years and years to come and go instead of the big bang they are hoping and praying for which will catapult their measly five-hundred or thousand ounces of gold to unseen heights to the level of Buffet, Gates, Ambani or Slim
EUR (currency) crisis? what crisis? look at long term exchange rates of the EUR or its main components vs. other major currencies. where's the crisis pray tell? then look at European stock markets which, Greece and the usual ClubMed suspects being an exception, did not fare worse than other markets.
the price of gold is driven by risk aversion and only time will tell whether the price and potential price increases are justified or not. in my view it is prudent to hold a certain percentage of one's net worth in gold. what percentage depends on the individual and his/her rational or irrational evaluation of the future.
I think the future is in the tank, with not a lot of fixes available, what percentage should I hold ?




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