london

Most of your questions centre around timing of the investment. My views:

I'd agree that 2000 onwards is a more relevant historical period to look at. Thailand is a very different place to 1997, so I believe that distorts the picture. Thailand learnt it's lessons and has changed the finance approach, policies and banking system since 1997. On the other hand West has been somewhat complacent.

As for politics, Thailand has a habit of shooting itself in the foot, but businesses and the economy just carry on, although occasionally the political situation causes temporary blips they are soon overcome.

On the unmentionable. Yes it will happen. Stock market will probably dive initially due to uncertainty, then things will carry on and get back to normal.

If you're investing long term, and averaging in money, then I'd say go ahead and start now, as Thailand has good potential for returns longer term, and THB returns particularly useful for currency purposes if you live here. Baht cost averaging will work in your favour.

If looking shorter term and for trading, I'd personally say wait for a pullback. Thai stocks have had a great run so far this year, and look fully priced with average SET P/Es of around 16, and div yield of around 3.6% (Slightly below longer run averages reflecting higher prices) . I like Phillips commentary and charts  on timing and usually spend a minute each day to read:

http://www.poems.in....me/en/index.htm
https://datacenter.p...nglishshort.pdf
https://datacenter.p...th/pdf/come.pdf

You may find the other thread of Thai stocks for long term investors of interest, although I'd say the focus is not really long term investment but shorter and mid-term trading, as lay people often interchange the words trading and investing in every day use.

I have been in Thai stocks for about 2 years now. First year i made 30% profit (admittedly a large part was on one good buy) and 12 % the second year.

There are some good dividend stocks and good growth stocks. I have also found that technical analysis seems to be quite effective in the thai market.

Are you based in bangkok? I was thinking of forming a small Thai stock  investors group to swap tips.

dont worry about thai politics worry about usa and european politics.

Sorry to say this but I feel the people who posted that they don't get any extra smiles or service on their next return seem to be tipping for gain. If you want to tip someone just do it because you want to and NOT so YOU gain from your next visit.

When I first came to Thailand I had read in the Lonely Planet Book etc. that tipping was not necessary however when I got here i just couldn't help it, when I got good service I showed my appreciation by giving a tip even if I never planned to come back to the place. It got a smile at that moment and a friendly gesture and that is good enough for me.

Also if you figure the hours these people put in for the small salary they get, if you have a few extra bob then why not help them out?

noitom, on 2012-01-10 07:35:33, said:

The first part of your post is quite sensible, but then it gets quite ridiculous. Security at most condo buildings is good an I don't know of any buildings that have squatters. Infrastructure is not the best but it's not great in lots of cities around the world. There are plenty of sidewalks, especially where you say there aren't any. Service personnel don't speak English - well that's a big surprise seeing as we're in Thailand. Did you also know that service personnel in the UK and USA don't speak Thai. Shocking isn't it?

It's also not true that Thais do not repair and maintain their properties. The rental properties I've lived in have been newly renovated. And the last condo building I lived in was closed down completely for a major renovation.

Perhaps you should have ended your post after the first few sentences.

And don't forget that Thailand, including Bangkok, is still developing. I don't know why so many on here expect everything to be perfect. Look back 50 years at London and New York and they had lots of problems and still do.

PattayaPhom, on 2012-01-10 12:05:31, said:

The owner of the condo I rent would disagree with you, as would the owners of several units in VT5 where I know that the tenants are paying 10K a month for units supposedly worth 3MB. All those units, and mine, are returning well under 5% gross but the owners are probably pleased to have reliable tenants on one-year contracts, rather than short-term party animals on a bender.

A question like this will always attract the usual suspects of doomsdayers that have either lost it all  or just havnt got the money to buy anywhere and are peefed off they missed the boat and now cant afford anything.

Depending on age, status and where you are from will determine which visa you can have. Many stay here on retirement visas, education visas or ;O; visas as they have friends/family here. Buying a property wont give any credits toward visa applications.

As for property here, if you want to buy a small condo in Pattaya, you can expect a return after fees, maitenance etc of about 9% Nett....thats a lot better than you will get tied up in a bank....Risk is the same as anywhere, prices could go down but if you buy a condo that is popular with tenants you will still be receiving your return and the drop in price would be minimal. Many posters just havnt accepted the fact that Thailand and especially Pattaya has changed in the past few years...its a very popular place all year round and isnt just a seasonal place for the sexpats anymore....Take a trip here and do your research, then make up your own mind without the intervention of the barfly experts.

To the OP-

Firstly dont be put off by posters who say 'only invest in Thailand what you can afford to lose'- that applies to every country in the world and is- generally - posted by people with no money to invest or lose ( posters on this thread excluded naturally :-)

I have been looking to buy a condo as an investment in Bangkok for 3 years, but have decided not to for now- mainly because while Eu/USA, Hong Kong, Singapore have all experienced/ing big drops in housing prices (often 30% plus) Thailand has not yet, the prices are still higher than pre-2008 and current 2011/12 economic crisis levels- this means Thailand condos/houses are still over priced and i believe there is a good chance of a price correction. At least enough of a chance for me to hold off buying for now.

Having said that, in the long term (15 years plus) buying property now in central Bangkok is still viable as an investment- as another poster mentioned, i see a bright future for the region and central Bangkok will turn into a Singapore/HK like area in the future i.e. rich residents, high value businesses and high value expats all of which will mean  high property prices in the long term.

theVenerable, on 2012-01-10 00:35:00, said:

I'm not at all worried; it's not my money that's at stake. I'm just bemused.

If I was in your shoes I might think about buying a condo as something that I could own outright, perhaps let out from time to time, and live in now or later on. But buying a house in the GF's name? Even if she is as honest as the day is long then you still have to think about possible death or insanity, or even her getting scammed by some Thai. Though as you say, that's your worry and I'll let you get on with it.
I was actually more bemused by the idea of putting all your savings into foreign property in a country you have no right of abode in. Not something I would do, but what do I know? Given the right property (and I would never buy anything that I couldnt happily live in myself) I might possibly put 10 or maybe 20% of my net wealth into property here. But no more.

For visas, you're fine once you're 50 at the moment but this could change and probably will at some point. At least you're fine if you still have 800KBaht to deposit and haven't spent it all on a house, or if you have the equivalent of 800KBaht per year as a certifiable foreign income. These figures haven't changed for a while so they may be due for an (upwards) revision.

In the meantime, you can get still get multiple-entry visas that give you 90 days per entry, so possibly up to 15 months per visa with a few border runs. Or you can get "ed" visas, potentially for several years, by signing up for lessons with some sort of school here. It seems as though all these slightly devious procedures are being looked at at the moment and I doubt that any of them will get any easier or cheaper. Successive multiple-entry visas are certainly getting much harder to obtain, as many here have found. Presumably because the assumption is that anyone getting multiple successive visas is probably working illegally, or otherwise up to no good.

Quote

I don't go to bed because my father told me once:
"Most of people fade away in their bed"

........ but the people don't stop going there

Sounds like "creative accounting".

Obviously, 90,000 Bt a month is good money here in Thailand, even for a foreigner.
I don't think it's that good compared to the Western world. If you intend to go back to your own country at sometime, it isn't enough to save money for retirement, child's eventual university education, maybe a house etc.

I think the old saying earn your money outside of Thailand and spend it here has a ring of truth about it.

If you just want to tread water here in Thailand for a few years, 90,000 Bt is fine.

I wonder if someone will ask the Socialist why he dodges paying tax on the 8m quid he earned last year?

I have never really hated anyone in my life ,but for Blair and his odious wife i am prepared to make an exeption ,he will go down in history as one of the most self serving ------s in the history of Britain ,which along with Gormlas Gordon he ruined.

the most overblown over hyped politician ever, the ultimate in all show and no substance, and with Brown
one of the worst things ever to happen to the UK.

Such polite posts so far!

"But all eyes will be on Blair, now an international statesman"

From war criminal to international statesman in two short steps. What a mad mixed up world the mainstream media and their political cohorts are. Between them they serve up so much badness for our world

The sooner they're both history the better. All power to the internet and the citizens.

Blair truly is a nasty criminal. I have a quote of his where he says "my christian conscience" is clear, in relation to the invasion of iraq on false pretences. I always remember his need for an adjective to describe a clear conscience, and the zero reactions by the mainstream media to this absurd claim of his.

How terribly sad he is coming to taint thailand with his ideas.