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jayboy, on 2010-08-31 08:58:18, said:
whybother, on 2010-08-31 08:39:26, said:
jayboy, on 2010-08-31 08:27:40, said:
As someone who broadly sympathises with the Red cause the result seemed much as expected.Naturally there are those of all stripes who spin the significance, but the truth is no side - except the ridiculous New Politics Party - can complain about the result.Still the comment being mocked (about constraints on the NPT) undoubtedly has some relevance, difficult to say how much.Still I doubt whether many people, except a few like whybother, seriously believe the Bangkok position will be reflected in a General Election.
IMO, for the next general election, the Democrats will perform better in most electorates and win a few more seats that the last election (but still not a majority). The PTP vote will be eroded by improved Democrat support in some areas, but particularly by the BJT in their "stronghold" areas. The PTP (PPP) didn't win the last election, and required support from the minority parties to from government. They will do worse in the next election, and currently do not have the support of most of the minor parties, which will probably continue, so the PTP will not be able to "win".
Overall, I expect the Democrats to form another coalition government. The spanner in the works is Newin's BJT.
Ok understood.Well let's see how the General Election turns out.My particular concern is that this a fair and transparent process.
If it doesn't embarrass you what I like about your position is that you don't claim omniscience and you correctly identify some wild cards.Politics in Thailand is as subject to volatility and chance as anywhere else.As Harold Macmillan once famously said when asked what was most likely to knock governments off course, "Events,dear boy,events".
The election, if there is to be one (and remember before the last election the armuy opinion poll got it exactly right), will be decided before the vote. The Democrats are going to hold their seats. Whatever exisits of the PTP will win their seats in the upper North and Upper Isaan. A few local small parties will win their littel fiefdoms. That only leaves BJT and the wavering PTP of the central, lower northern and lower Isaan areas plus a few PTP supporting families who may want a foot in both camps. At issue in these areas is whaich powerful brokers will elave PTP for BJT. We have recently seen the powerful Adireksan family do exactly this. This is where the battle will be and it will expensive abd brutal. If the gambit works, the vote that follows will be inevitable. If the gambot doesnt work well that brings us back to my first sentence.
Another thing to watch is the inversion of the Dem disolution case. The evidence was always a bit cirumtantial but now with witnesses being pushed to answer questions over a set up with locatioon and people named this could come back on PTP considering one of those named is their head honcho and that the witness yesterday didnt want to repsond to questions rtaher than denying allegations.
By the way the main reason there wont be an election right now is that a disolution case is in progress. The Dems wont call it until that is over same as TRT and PPP didnt.
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