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Stop fighting over Brexit and get real, Jim O'Neill tells UK

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Just now, ilostmypassword said:

Not against the Euro

 

Quoting facts are you? Like the pound has been in decline since 2010? Not against the dollar or the euro.

Well make your mind up! 

 

Oh, The grand old Duke of York,
He had ten thousand men;
He marched them up to the top of the hill,
And he marched them down again.

 

Now when you're up, you're up,
And when you're down, you're down,
And when you're only half-way up,
You're neither up nor down.

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3 hours ago, nauseus said:

Yes, then 1.10 now 1.11. Salient enough?

 

It was down below 1.08 when we were in Spain a couple of weeks ago, so the improvement is quite significant. But I don't expect it to get anywhere near the artificially high pre-referendum levels

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2 hours ago, chrissables said:

I am quoting facts, you are not. Confidence is relative to what business you are in. I will presume you are not running a business.

 

She's looking after horses in Phuket.

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Oh wonderful, yet another preaching to UK about Brexit.

As if the UK don't get enough negativity from the EU already.


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junckers latest words point to more joiners from the piss poor part of east europe looking for german prosperity paid for by the brits who are unfortunately leaving the party just in time..all of whom will need to move over to the euro currency which is not for brits

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junckers latest words point to more joiners from the piss poor part of east europe looking for german prosperity paid for by the brits who are unfortunately leaving the party just in time..all of whom will need to move over to the euro currency which is not for brits


A fair analysis of Junker.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/09/13/jean-claude-juncker-cant-seriously-regret-brexit-has-freed-eu/

The EU craves on authority & power, and despises anyone who fails to follow the EU ideology and even more so to challenge it.

Let him have his hot air annual address, however a unified & harmonious EU it certainly is not.


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12 minutes ago, 3NUMBAS said:

junckers latest words point to more joiners from the piss poor part of east europe looking for german prosperity paid for by the brits who are unfortunately leaving the party just in time..all of whom will need to move over to the euro currency which is not for brits

 

He headlines his speech with 'reform' but details it with more of the same old same old. Yet more doublespeak from him: the language of the politically abhorrent.

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10 hours ago, Khun Han said:

 

It was down below 1.08 when we were in Spain a couple of weeks ago, so the improvement is quite significant. But I don't expect it to get anywhere near the artificially high pre-referendum levels

Artificial? How exactly do "artificial" exchange rates come about? And in this case, how could they have lasted so long?

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19 minutes ago, ilostmypassword said:

Artificial? How exactly do "artificial" exchange rates come about? And in this case, how could they have lasted so long?

Because the Euro was depressed from mid 2014 due to deflationary pressure, which was largely avoided by Sterling during that period. The ECB stepped up its monthly asset purchases to a monthly total of EUR 80bn and they are still ongoing. Less deflationary pressure now but all this QE will come at a cost further down the track.

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6 minutes ago, nauseus said:

Because the Euro was depressed from mid 2014 due to deflationary pressure, which was largely avoided by Sterling during that period. The ECB stepped up its monthly asset purchases to a monthly total of EUR 80bn and they are still ongoing. Less deflationary pressure now but all this QE will come at a cost further down the track.

You've got it backwards. When the economy of a country A has more inflation than country (or currency area) B that actually tends to depress the value of the currency. Japan had years of deflation or slowflation which actually kept its currency at a higher rate of exchange in relation to other countries. The whole point of PM Abe's trying to promote inflation was to decrease the value of Japan's currency.  So the UK's higher inflation rate would actually have worked against the pound's increase in value. In addition the pound held held reasonably steady against the dollar for most of that time despite America's quicker recovery from recession (thank you obama).

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29 minutes ago, ilostmypassword said:

You've got it backwards. When the economy of a country A has more inflation than country (or currency area) B that actually tends to depress the value of the currency. Japan had years of deflation or slowflation which actually kept its currency at a higher rate of exchange in relation to other countries. The whole point of PM Abe's trying to promote inflation was to decrease the value of Japan's currency.  So the UK's higher inflation rate would actually have worked against the pound's increase in value. In addition the pound held held reasonably steady against the dollar for most of that time despite America's quicker recovery from recession (thank you obama).

You asked a question. I told you what happened in reality not according to your theory. There was negligible inflation in the UK for that period.  

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15 hours ago, chrissables said:

I am not pretending anything. The fact is the pound has been in decline since 2010. 

Assuming you know how to read a chart, see below for absolute proof you're making stuff up again, left hand side of chart is Jan  2010, right hand side is today:

Capture.PNG.865ac72e907a45e34352141e0b9d76be.PNG

Capture.PNG.995b1d0e3d43d56e02329c9552ff4063.PNG

 

The pound was steadily climbing to the big peak in 2015 until brexit reared its ugly head then started plunging.

 

The steepest cliff on the right hand side of the peak occurred at the exact moment the referendum result was announced.

 

nauseus claims the pound has recovered but the chart doesn't lie....

 

As I said before, Brexiteers struggle with basic numeracy...

Edited by onthesoi

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There is no slope to the drop in the pound its a vertical cliff which starts the same day the referendum result was known:

 

Capture.PNG.6bdd0546f084ebd1690b6291c6bac9c2.PNG

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37 minutes ago, nauseus said:

You asked a question. I told you what happened in reality not according to your theory. There was negligible inflation in the UK for that period.  

The last time you claimed that the British Pound had increased in value artificially because the UK had higher inflation. Now you're saying that the UK had "negligible inflation." Which is it?

Actually, that's not even true about UK inflation. The UK inflation rate over that period went as high as five percent. It persistently outpaced inflation in the Eurozone.

As for it being my "theory" about higher inflation being a factor in devaluation of a currency it's one I share with virtually every economist left right and center. Remember the hyperinflation in Germany of the early 20's. By your logic, that must have increased the value of the Deutschmark astronomically.

 

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BANGKOK 21 November 2017 19:21
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