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Thailand third quarter growth seen slowing as tourism, exports cool: Reuters poll

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Thailand third quarter growth seen slowing as tourism, exports cool: Reuters poll

By Orathai Sriring

 

2018-11-16T073635Z_1_LYNXNPEEAF0EW_RTROPTP_4_THAILAND-ECONOMY-GDP.JPG

FILE PHOTO: People stroll in a shopping mall in Bangkok, Thailand August 14, 2016. REUTERS/Jorge Silva

 

BANGKOK (Reuters) - Thailand's economic growth in July-September is expected to have slowed from the previous quarter, a Reuters poll showed, as softer exports and tourism offset a pickup in private consumption.

 

The median estimate from a poll of 12 economists saw seasonally-adjusted growth of 0.6 percent in the third quarter versus the second quarter. Respondents' estimates ranged from 0.2 percent to 1.1 percent.

 

Gross domestic product grew 1.0 percent in the June quarter, slowing from the first quarter's 2.1 percent, which was the fastest pace in five years.

 

The poll's median forecast saw annual growth at 4.2 percent in the September quarter, below the June quarter's 4.6 percent.

 

The central bank has forecast slower growth in July-September and said it might lower its 2018 export growth forecast following September's unexpected decline in shipments.

 

Southeast Asia's second-largest economy, which is heavily reliant on external demand, has seen a pick-up in growth, although exports have slowed and tourism took a hit after a boat accident in July killed 47 Chinese visitors.

 

Thailand's exports to China, its second-biggest market, slumped 14 percent in September on-year, and are likely to remain weak in the wake of the intensifying Sino-U.S. trade war.

 

Tim Leelahaphan, an economist of Standard Chartered, said while growth likely slowed, it would remain robust and in line with Thailand's potential growth rate of around 4 percent.

 

Political campaign spending leading up to a general election, which needs to be held by May, should give a "short-term boost to growth" through campaign-related activity and rural spending, he said.

 

The median forecast in the poll for full-year growth in 2018 was 4.5 percent and was 4.2 percent for 2019. Last year's growth was 3.9 percent, the fastest expansion in five years.

 

In July-September, Thailand's year-on-year exports growth slowed to 2.6 percent from the June quarter's 12.3 percent. Manufacturing also moderated.

 

Growth in third quarter foreign tourist arrivals slowed sharply to 1.9 percent on-year, with Chinese visitors down 9 percent.

 

But annual growth in private consumption accelerated to 6.5 percent the third quarter, with domestic car sales surging.

 

Private investment rose 2.8 percent from a year earlier, while government expenditure increased 2.3 percent.

 

The National Economic and Social Development Board, which compiles GDP data, forecast GDP to grow 4.2-4.7 percent this year, with exports up 10 percent. It will publish new projections on Monday.

 

The central bank on Wednesday left its policy interest rate <THCBIR=ECI> unchanged at 1.50 percent. But it noted a reduced need for accommodative policy, reinforcing the view that it might next month hike the rate for the first time in more than seven years.

 

(Editing by Sam Holmes)

 
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-- © Copyright Reuters 2018-11-19

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Thailand reports no quarter on quarter growth in third quarter, year on year below forecast at 3.3 percent

 

2018-11-19T025630Z_1_LYNXNPEEAI03G_RTROPTP_3_THAILAND-ECONOMY-GDP.JPG

FILE PHOTO: General view of the Train Night Market Ratchada in Bangkok, Thailand August 23, 2018. REUTERS/Soe Zeya Tun

 

BANGKOK (Reuters) - Thailand's economy failed to grow in July-September from the previous quarter, contrary to expectations of some growth in spite of softer exports and tourism.

 

Southeast Asia's second-largest economy showed no expansion in July-September from the previous three months on a seasonally adjusted basis, data showed on Monday.

 

The quarterly reading was the weakest since the first quarter of 2014, when the economy shrank 0.4 percent.

 

The forecast in a Reuters poll for July-September was 0.6 percent, compared with a revised 0.9 percent in the previous three months.

 

All of the poll's predictions were for some growth in the latest quarter.

 

On an annual basis, growth was 3.3 percent in July-September, the National Economic and Social Development Board (NESDB) said. Economists had forecast 4.2 percent.

 

The planning agency on Monday downgraded its 2018 GDP growth forecast to 4.2 percent instead of the previous 4.2-4.7 percent range. It now expects exports to rise 7.2 percent this year, rather than 10.0 percent.

 

For 2019, the agency predicts growth of 3.5-4.5 percent, with exports rising 4.6 percent.

 

Analysts polled by Reuters predict GDP growth of 4.5 percent this year and 4.2 percent in 2019.

 

Last year's pace was 3.9 percent, the best in five years.

 

(Reporting by Kitiphong Thaichareon; Writing by Orathai Sriring; Editing by Richard Borsuk)

 
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-- © Copyright Reuters 2018-11-19

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Tourism? Exports? This is what happens when they get involved with evil foreign powers. The Thai people don't need those evil foreigners, they should be rejoicing that less tourists are coming to Thailand and less are buying their products. I wonder if they are cheering the good news.

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Amazing Thailand is now ''Amusing Thailand...

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34 minutes ago, Srikcir said:

So essentially, the Thai economy led by the junta has regressed back in terms of growth to the chaotic times of government shutdown by PRDC and pro-military supporters. Only one time has economic growth matched pre-2013 government protest levels. All the while increasing both household and government unmatched debt.

And the Prayut government wants to be rewarded by Prayut's election as the next PM?

 

The Happiness poll is sliding in the same downward momentum as his chance for PMship. 

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Would like to see comparison of growth rates of neighboring countries which seem to be much more business friendly

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If I said how overjoyed I was to read this serious economic news that is bound to reflect badly on the NCPO's performance, it would be absolutely true. There needs to be much more of this 'downturn' sort of news to give these generals a right kick up the rear. And maybe they'd soften-down their bully-boy tactics a tad, knowing that the public is starting to see the light about the false proclamations of progress.

 

Sleep tight tonight, NCPO leader . . . I know I will.

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4 hours ago, Srikcir said:

And the Prayut government wants to be rewarded by Prayut's election as the next PM?

Yes, Srikcir, it would be funny if it wasn't so serious. The picture of that happening turns my stomach daily . . . until Leo takes control.

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3 hours ago, Eric Loh said:

The Happiness poll is sliding in the same downward momentum as his chance for PMship. 

Unusually optimistic, today, EL . . . Why's that, I wonder.

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The loss of life due to the boat accident is coincidental to the issue of growth, it took place at the same time that the trade war started and the value of the Yuan began to fall against THB.

image.png.810f5669de6e4b67d98954bb7b53ea99.png

 

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23 minutes ago, Ulic said:

People are quick to blame the Junta but bad news in the tourist industry with boat accidents, drownings, thefts, etc.....were happening before the Junta took power. So I really don't blame them for the downturn in Chinese tourists. As for exports, a crackdown in Thai illegal fishing practices brought on by threats of EU sanctions must be playing a part. So blame or credit the EU for that. Personally, I don't blame or credit the Junta with much. They have cracked down on the corruption of many individuals, and expanded the level of corruption of others. Same, same, but different. I don't notice much of a change positive or negative. It is just a wash. Certainly a crackdown on individuals connected to the disastrous rice pledging scheme and corruption that was rampant in that program. the monks have also had the spotlight shone on their nefarious activities. Just my opinion.

What seems to have really exacerbated the Chinese reaction to the Phoenix boat tragedy was the response of a very senior figure in the junta. First he said it was a Chinese tragedy, citing the boat and tour company as both Chinese owned,then when it was pointed out that the tragedy occurred in Thai waters under Thai jurisdiction, his apology was seen as insincere by the Chinese.

When you consider the financial damage caused by his words, I'm sure he would have had to resign if the government had come from an election

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