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Nepal4me

Million Dollar Homes On Samui

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LivinLOS    3,353

Same same Phuket 500 - 800 or so ranging from smallish and plain to largish with perhaps a feature like waterfall etc..

Easy to double that for large with fountains / watrefalls / features whch quite frankly would be expected in any 40m villa..

I would have to say though that I looked at a fair few pieces ofg land and developed units to get a feel for values and developer returns on Samui (which I think is better value than phuket now as people scramble for plots I dont think deserve it) and 40m on Samui needs to be VERY nice..

I saw spectacular land that on Phuket would be 12 - 15 rai easily here (if it was available) and was quoted a price of 3m / rai within the first 1/2 hour of haggling..

Given Phukets rise I think it is highly likely that Samui will follow the same pattern as the similar infrastructure is added to Samui..

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Nepal4me    64
Just a small point to the original poster, but if the roadway is 6m wide, thats actually pretty small and certainly is not going to look in proportion to the development once its finished.  I have seen this all too often, great houses and tiny streets where two cars cannot pass each other.  Unfortunately many people take the view that a road is dead money but all to often, the decision on buying (or more importantly not buying) a place is often made before they step inside the house.  You might want to look into that in more detail and envisage how your million baht villa is going to look with tiny streets.

Interesting observation. Actally 6 Meters is ok for 2 cars to pass altho obviously not quickly. The entrance road is 8 meters wide but the road which winds thru the subdivision is 6 meters. I can't really envision what that might look like in the real world but there are only 15 homes being built in phase one, altho 18 plots. 3 people bought 2 plots to have room to build their super duper "poser" homes to quote an earlier responder. I'll mention this issue to the developer altho there's nothing that can be done about it now as the plans are in concrete. Since there are so few homes, I'm not sure that 6 meters is really a big deal. You're right that developers often try to maximize the area to put homes in to maximize their profits. That was one of the things that impressed me about this development. They really are allowing a lot of area for green space to creat a lot of privacy and sceanery so I hope the 6 meters doesn't look negative. I guess I'll find out. I wonder if anybody in Phuket or other locals with high end gated communities can comment more on a 6 meter wide road and it's acceptability from a visual and functional viewpoint?

To clarify the pool, landscape and furnishings issues. The infinity pool would be included in the 20,000 baht per sq meter or the 10 M baht outlay for the building the villa and deck area. The infinity pools are very expensive, I'm not sure about the exact price since it's included in the quote for the entire villa and deck areas together. Since the villa will be 500 sq M, there will still be 1,100 sq m of land that needs to be landscaped. It is very expensive, up to 750,000 baht for landscape appropriate for a villa of that type. Furnishing is also very expensive, 2 million baht will not even cut it. 4 big bedrooms, living/dining areas. Furnishing will need to be Teak or the like or the place will look chincy. Thus my 3 million number for furnishings and landscape, actually I'm sure I'm low on that number and it'll be more.

I'm still very pumped about this opportunity. Some of the posts have been so negative (which is the right of the poster) but with over negativity comes a bias that doesn't allow an objective analysis. There are problems on Samui but as far as it being a transient local, that was yesterday, I believe (and am counting on it as my money is going that direction) it's moving way upscale, it's likely to follow the Phuket route, like it or not. From an investment perspective, that's where money is to be made. I am seriously considering buying 2 plots. Financially I wouldn't want to build 2 villas but may just hold the 2nd plot for 2 or 3 years and then sell it or sell the original villa and build a 2nd one.

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taxexile    10
I'm still very pumped about this opportunity. Some of the posts have been so negative (which is the right of the poster) but with over negativity comes a bias that doesn't allow an objective analysis. There are problems on Samui but as far as it being a transient local, that was yesterday, I believe (and am counting on it as my money is going that direction) it's moving way upscale, it's likely to follow the Phuket route, like it or not. From an investment perspective, that's where money is to be made. I am seriously considering buying 2 plots. Financially I wouldn't want to build 2 villas but may just hold the 2nd plot for 2 or 3 years and then sell it or sell the original villa and build a 2nd one.

from an investment point of view have you looked at commercial developments and rentals there ?? there seem to be more businesses moving there than millionaires !

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Nepal4me    64
I'm still very pumped about this opportunity. Some of the posts have been so negative (which is the right of the poster) but with over negativity comes a bias that doesn't allow an objective analysis. There are problems on Samui but as far as it being a transient local, that was yesterday, I believe (and am counting on it as my money is going that direction) it's moving way upscale, it's likely to follow the Phuket route, like it or not. From an investment perspective, that's where money is to be made. I am seriously considering buying 2 plots. Financially I wouldn't want to build 2 villas but may just hold the 2nd plot for 2 or 3 years and then sell it or sell the original villa and build a 2nd one.

from an investment point of view have you looked at commercial developments and rentals there ?? there seem to be more businesses moving there than millionaires !

I'm less interested in doing a commercial business or rentals other than renting out my own villa. Getting into commercial interests means a great deal of hands-on involvement as does the rental business other than your own property, I'm not interested in spending my time doing that. Again it seems I disagree with you on Samui issues Khun Taxexile, I believe and the trend clearly backs me up, there will be a lot of millionaires either moving to Samui or just keeping million dollar homes there. If I rent out to people occasionally, then I can manage myself (with some property agents assistance for a 10% commission which isn't too bad). There is little brain damage in that type of arrangement, which is what I want. I don't want day to day management. I have a few condo's in a couple of different countries and they are easy to manage as long as you buy according to certain criteria. The villa in Samui would be a different product for me but I think I can manage it in a similar way, i.e. no day-to-day involvement, just periodic, usually via email issues. That of course is other than problems that inevitably arise, roof leaks, fridge dies, something cracks. Those will involve more work on my part but since the place will be new, then hopefully those issues will not be too frequent. My goal isn't really to drive a lot of revenue via rentals but if I can get even 100,000 to 150,000 baht per month that would be fine. Not a bad return on a 20K baht investment given today's economy but I'm counting on the capital appreciation for the big score.

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LivinLOS    3,353

Rent like that gets a very special place...

My home is valued at 25+ realistically.. I rent for 70.. so his return on >600k USD is a hair over 20k USD before maintenance of which there seems to be a lot.. so he is getting a 3 - 4% return on capital in a risky market.

Personally I am staying invested overseas and pay my rent...

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Nepal4me    64
Rent like that gets a very special place...

My home is valued at 25+ realistically.. I rent for 70.. so his return on >600k USD is a hair over 20k USD before maintenance of which there seems to be a lot.. so he is getting a 3 - 4% return on capital in a risky market.

Personally I am staying invested overseas and pay my rent...

Sorry, not really sure what you're talking about.

Your home at 25+ ???

Rent for 70 ???

Where is this home? Is the comparison meaingful, i.e. apples to apples?

>600K USD ???, if you're referinging to the villa I'm proposing, 20M baht = US$500

averaging my conservative 100K to 150K per month, i.e. 125K baht or about US$3k = about a 7% ROI before mntc. Actually you can make enough on the extras, maid service, driver, wine cellar, food cooked by in-house cook to cover the mntc fees. People renting places like this want services and if they're paying significant rent, then paying for an in-house cook/maid is negligible. Any repairs would obviously be on top. Hopefully few for the first few years.

Even the 7% return is only a bonus because I'm in it for the big score, i.e. the potential capital appreciation. That's where my gamble is.

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i think its a big gamble.

a lot of those million dollar homes are standing around unlived in and unsold.

all these gated communities seem to be devoid of inhabitants apart from the maids and  swimming pool maintenance crews who seem to be living a life of riley.

not so many regular inhabitants that give a neighbourhood some life and character.

**First I don't think there are many million dollar homes on Samui so it's hard to say they're unlived in and unsold as a rule.  Same for the gated communities, there are a some and I wouldn't argue that they have few inhabitants, little neighbourhood life and character but that can also be translated into 'privacy'. 

For the purposes of the rich coming from HK or Singapore or wherever to a high end gated community.  It's not for the social life, it's for a James Bond style exclusive and private place to not be bothered by anybody

the infrastructure on the island is not yet up to scratch and there is fck all to do on samui except sit on your verandah by your infinity pool and balinese fusion style sala and count your money or watch it disappear.

**I agree the infrastucture is weak, hopefully it'll improve over the next few years.  Rich people coming to all the new 5 Star resorts as well as to the James Bond villas will help the economy and hopefully we'll see the infrasture improve.

some of the recent "immigrants" leave a lot to be desired too , it must be said.

buy some land and sit on it or rent a place would seem a better bet to me.

**I've thought a lot about that option and may do just that as well but the potential, albeit with some risk to turn 20M baht into 30 to 40 Mil is compeling.

i bought some land there three years ago with a view to building , but i left the island recently , i'd had enough of the high prices ,increasing noise and traffic , poor service , dirty water , power cuts and the greedy take it or leave it attitude of all who do business there .

**I guess I wasn't there long enough to get that distaste but again, that's not my primary concern.  I'm more into this from an investment perscpective. 

Still have your land???

it is also losing all vestiges of its "thainess" , its sold its soul to foriegners , and is becoming more like majorca or the spanish coast every day.

**Well if you can't beat 'em, join 'em.  Change is constant, it's Samui now, it'll be Phang ngan next.  What can you do, keep paradise unspoiled and unknown to the world?  My plan here in fact contributes to the Spanish Coast or Hawaii like evolvement but if I don't buy it, some other rich guy from HK or wherever will. 

that may not bother some people , but it bothered me.

its a lovely island for a few weeks or a few months if you enjoy living a low key relatively low expenditure kind of life , and no i dont mean counting your baht each mealtime backpacker type life either , you dont need a james bond style house to live comfortably there , in fact for a relaxing existence there you should downsize as much as possible ,  but i would not want to invest large amounts of money on that island.

buy your luxury home on the mainland in bangkok or hua hin or phuket and have a simple cheap low maintenance holiday home of 150 sq. meters on a hillside there , you could do it for 3 or 4  mill. including the land and leave the luxury estates to the posers with more money than sense

**To buy in BKK or Hua Hin or even Phuket is higher in price than Samui and I believe has less potential to go up, actualy HH may not be more expensive but it isn't the int'l destination that Samui is.  My goal isn't a cheap low mtnc holiday home, myself, personally I'd rather go to different places when on vacation.  I can't afford a hi end place in BKK, it's already priced to crazy levels and the upside potential altho possible is far less likely lucrative than the Samui opportunity.  I'm looking at this as a business opportunity.

selling those big houses may take years , selling a piece of land without a house is a lot easier and your profit will be better.

**It's supply and demand, the island is not getting bigger, there can never be hundreds and hundreds of high end homes.  The demand is there, via direct flights, great weather etc.  Tourism is only increasing in Thailand and Samui has already evolved from a backpacker place on upward, it's now on the radar map of the world and that will continue, that's life.  There is high demand there.

hundreds of land agents have descended on the place promising the earth in the way of rental returns and a luxurious palm tree framed dream lifestyle , take it with a pinch of salt. its a huge gamble in my opinion.

**The rental return thing on only a 'bonus', if I can rent it out for big numbers, then great, if not, my plan would be to flip it.  BTW, a friend from HK and his wife and 3 other couples came to Samui last Xmas.  They paid US$1000/night for 7 nights for a high end villa.  4 bedrooms, infinity pool, really high end.  That's the going rate today for these types of places.  It was then only US$250 per couple and they had their own villa not shared by other tourists, their own maid and chef to boot.  Those rates are obviously only during the really high seasons, Xmas, NY, Chinese NY and a few other short periods of time.

you will pay a fortune to the developers in commission to manage the place and rent it out whilst you are not there.

**This isn't true, you only have to pay 10% of the total rent and only when it's rented out. 

they are experts at selling the dream.

go and live there for six months before spending a large amount on building a home.

i wont even start on how to deal with builders and their "contracts" and elastic budgeting.

tornado 
1 mil USD is nothing to them, or anyone now who lives in the real world.

earth to tornado , earth to tornado , are you receiving me !!

come down to earth immediately , i repeat.............

1 mill u.s. is a lot to 95% of the planet , all of whom live on the real world.

** Altho a mil US is a ton of money to most of the world, it's the 5% of the world that it's not a lot of money to that I'm concerned about here. The HK and Singapore money is big, a mil US is really chump change to many there. A US$1M apt in HK is available but it's not even close to being nice especially in the falang/guillo areas. Compare that to the place I can get built for 20M baht, half a mil USD!!!

as a developer its in your interests to promote that kind of lifestyle , but realistically speaking , that kind of lifestyle is more suited to the caribbean , the french riviera or florida , where the infrastructure will give the heavy hitters what they require in the way of shops , restaurants , hospitals and infrastructure and the kind of service that the rich take for granted.

samui is way behind on those fronts , there is no shopping there apart from tourist tat of the lowest quality , the restaurants and pubs are ok for boozers and singles on a package holiday island , but way below the standards to be found where millionaires gather , and the hospitals are pure rip- offs. the roads flood regularly after each shower , even in the main centres , and the island is slowly but surely being uglified by inappropriate construction almost everywhere you look.

**You're right there, the infrastucture isn't there now. The flooding is particularily annoying. Course rainy season isn't when the $1K/night renters are coming. Have to count on improvments happening anyway, progress and all. It's come a long way, not always for the better as you point out but it's changing, at least it has multiple hospitals now, an international school is coming soon too. Lots of not so nice development and construction but lots of good product too.

samui just aint got no class at all ! in spite of the picturesqueness of the place its just not a very nice place to be anymore , and a lot of that is down to the general unfriendliness , unreliability and lack of sincerity of the people there.

the attitude of the business people there towards customers leaves a lot to be desired.

** Got to be the same as anywhere else in Thailand where Falangs and locals mix.

to buy a $1,000,000 home on a $9.99 island is pure folly.

samui is definately more suited to a lower key kind of existence.

**I believe that was yesterday, today and tomorrow it's going upscale.

also the quality of the construction is another factor ,if the place falls apart after its sold i very much dought if there is any recourse

** need to be very careful on that front. My original plan was to buy the land, build the villa and then sell it, and you're right it's buyer beware, the buyer has little recourse. I do however want to ensure it's built to very high standards and will be monitoring the construction (actually, I'll have some other people I know involved to do that).

Overall I'm still leaning heavily towards making this investment. I don't have 20M baht to lose but I feel pretty good that when it's said and done, the place will be worth at least 20M, that's based on the crappier stuff that's selling now at prices far higher than that.

Good luck, it might work, but as they say in the property market anywhere, location, location, location.

I don't see a millionaire from Singapore wanting to put up with the crappy infrastructure, and the ropey internet connection, dodgy mobile phone, plus he will be in the same situation as yourself, not really able to own his own property.

Real estate in this country is very difficult at the high end.

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taxexile    10

NEPAL4ME

I'm less interested in doing a commercial business or rentals other than renting out my own villa. Getting into commercial interests means a great deal of hands-on involvement as does the rental business other than your own property, I'm not interested in spending my time doing that. Again it seems I disagree with you on Samui issues Khun Taxexile, I believe and the trend clearly backs me up, there will be a lot of millionaires either moving to Samui or just keeping million dollar homes there. If I rent out to people occasionally, then I can manage myself (with some property agents assistance for a 10% commission which isn't too bad). There is little brain damage in that type of arrangement, which is what I want. I don't want day to day management. I have a few condo's in a couple of different countries and they are easy to manage as long as you buy according to certain criteria. The villa in Samui would be a different product for me but I think I can manage it in a similar way, i.e. no day-to-day involvement, just periodic, usually via email issues. That of course is other than problems that inevitably arise, roof leaks, fridge dies, something cracks. Those will involve more work on my part but since the place will be new, then hopefully those issues will not be too frequent. My goal isn't really to drive a lot of revenue via rentals but if I can get even 100,000 to 150,000 baht per month that would be fine. Not a bad return on a 20K baht investment given today's economy but I'm counting on the capital appreciation for the big score.

well , i hope it works out for you.

personally i think you are risking a lot by building a house there for that kind of money.

maybe its cash that needs to be spent , :o , there seems to be a lot of that there too.

i would invest 1 mill u.s. in land there but not bricks and mortar.

too many empty houses.

after spending the best part of 3 years there , i would not want to leave an investment of 1 million u.s. in the care of agents there either.

you will need to choose the company very carefully indeed.

their brochures may be glossy , but their minds are mostly dim i'm afraid.

as for the future there , well i think the prices of land with views and easy access will continue to appreciate , but if all those high end homes get built , the renter will have such a large choice that prices may not be maintained , and a house standing empty soon deteriorates in the climate there , lots of maintenance !!!

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The_Moog    0

I saw a huge development on Samui - just north of Chaweng....and the shape of the land could best be described as bottle-shaped.

If you can imagine the neck of the bottle being the very small access to the beach - and the rest of it being the contents part - not really very attractive, no sea view, all living cheek by jowl, up the back.

Only place i'd like to buy in Samui is in the Tamarind Resort.

However people do come from HK and Singapore - and loads of them buy. Thats true. When you're living in Hong Kong, you're seduced by floorspace - and the idea of owning a house is magic.

Samui is prejudiced by being in the Gulf of Thailand - which is ecologically in jeopardy, and it is a drag to get to.

The smaller Andaman coast is in far better shape ecologically- plus Phuket has that road bridge. I'd prefer to live there.

Still i'm hearing that agencies are finding life tough in Phuket. Andrew Park slated to shut soon, a few local agencies already gone.

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Tornado    0
The_Moog,

The smaller Andaman coast is in far better shape ecologically- plus Phuket has that road bridge. I'd prefer to live there.

Still i'm hearing that agencies are finding life tough in Phuket. Andrew Park slated to shut soon, a few local agencies already gone.

Well To be honest with you moog, Andrew Park has been through to many managers over their small time here on this Island - they were never a huge business here anyway. (with respect as they were/are nice people).

Being an agent here myself, Im having the biggest year in sales that I have ever had, but it is major projects rather than residential sales. Im glad a few of the cowboys (1 season grabbers) are starting to close - it is good for all of us..

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LivinLOS    3,353
Rent like that gets a very special place...

My home is valued at 25+ realistically.. I rent for 70.. so his return on >600k USD is a hair over 20k USD before maintenance of which there seems to be a lot.. so he is getting a 3 - 4% return on capital in a risky market.

Personally I am staying invested overseas and pay my rent...

Sorry, not really sure what you're talking about.

Your home at 25+ ???

Rent for 70 ???

Where is this home? Is the comparison meaingful, i.e. apples to apples?

>600K USD ???, if you're referinging to the villa I'm proposing, 20M baht = US$500

averaging my conservative 100K to 150K per month, i.e. 125K baht or about US$3k = about a 7% ROI before mntc. Actually you can make enough on the extras, maid service, driver, wine cellar, food cooked by in-house cook to cover the mntc fees. People renting places like this want services and if they're paying significant rent, then paying for an in-house cook/maid is negligible. Any repairs would obviously be on top. Hopefully few for the first few years.

Even the 7% return is only a bonus because I'm in it for the big score, i.e. the potential capital appreciation. That's where my gamble is.

It is a meaningful comparison due to the fact I am in Patong Phuket.. This is probably the highest rental return per invested capital on the island due to highest tourist numbers etc...

So MY home at approx 25 mil value (600k USD) compares a lot to Your inward 500k investment... My location is one of high rental returns (I could get this place for less outside of Patong but still on Phuket) at 70k per month and its still a lot worse (on the invested sum) then my investments perform outside of Thai juristiction..

Of course if you are vacation letting you can get high returns but long term rents, I think is a purely loss making category (in a asian currency) compared to my investments..

Also to be considered is the global state of the worlds ecomomies... Deficits spiralling out of control.. Nearly all the western economies hiunged and leveraged on massive credit both persoanl and government.. Recession looming.. Property bubble fueled by credit influx like the world has never seen before... Highly possible for a real estate crash and resulting severe depression in the global economy over the next 2 - 5 year timeframe.. If this happens expect the second home / holiday home / rich retirers market to be effected..

If it seems so easy to double your money it probably is not what its claimed to be.. Over the last few years it has been possible here on Phuket and increasinly so on Samui.. But that is highly possible to be the end of the cycle (the time when everyone thinks real estate is easy money is time to leave the market)..

If you want it as a long term home to live in for years then I would never avise against building your dream home.. For speculative gains I would say the risk level is higher than you percieve and the returns may not be as large..

I have been in construction and real estate development until retiring to Thailand (at 28) and now I simply actively manage my investments.. I thought I would get into the market here and I dont deny that good money can be made but have also seen a lot of good money lost.. Mine stays offshore..

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The_Moog    0

I got the Phuket Land propaganda piece today.

As you might expect its all ...Phuket sales are boomin' ..."what was $2m last year is now $3m"

If thats the case, why haven't their staff been paid their commissions for the last few months?

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Nepal4me    64

It is a meaningful comparison due to the fact I am in Patong Phuket.. This is probably the highest rental return per invested capital on the island due to highest tourist numbers etc...

So MY home at approx 25 mil value (600k USD) compares a lot to Your inward 500k investment... My location is one of high rental returns (I could get this place for less outside of Patong but still on Phuket) at 70k per month and its still a lot worse (on the invested sum) then my investments perform outside of Thai juristiction..

***I still can't really understand what you have. Is the home valued at US$600K owned by you? Are you renting a $600K home owned by someone else and paying 70K baht/mo? Are you renting out your 600K home for 70K baht/mo??? If you're getting 70k baht/mo on a home worth US$600K then your getting about 3% return. I would hope your getting better return abroad. I think this is probably not your meaning but I can't figure out what you do mean.

Of course if you are vacation letting you can get high returns but long term rents, I think is a purely loss making category (in a asian currency) compared to my investments..

*** If you are saying renting out short term to vacationers provides a better return than long term rents, I would agree. I indicated that the villa is to be built and sold 2 years later, that's my direction right now. Possibly if it seems I can get high short term returns especially during Xmas/NY/Chinese NY/Euro vacation then I'll keep the place and use it myself periodically when it's not rented out. Make a decision when to flip it at a later date.

Also to be considered is the global state of the worlds ecomomies... Deficits spiralling out of control.. Nearly all the western economies hiunged and leveraged on massive credit both persoanl and government.. Recession looming.. Property bubble fueled by credit influx like the world has never seen before... Highly possible for a real estate crash and resulting severe depression in the global economy over the next 2 - 5 year timeframe.. If this happens expect the second home / holiday home / rich retirers market to be effected..

*** If we have a global recession, the problem will not be limited to my Samui Villa. All assets will be hit. Any money in the stock market or in other equites will be hit regardless.

If it seems so easy to double your money it probably is not what its claimed to be.. Over the last few years it has been possible here on Phuket and increasinly so on Samui.. But that is highly possible to be the end of the cycle (the time when everyone thinks real estate is easy money is time to leave the market)..

*** I am concerned that prices have gone up in Samui but it's really not yet developed at all. Over the next 2 or 3 years, you will see likely hundreds of huge homes going up. But the island isn't getting bigger, when it's fully developed, they won't be developing any more homes. Even if we get some hundreds of new huge villas on the island, the demand from HK/Sing and worldwide isn't going away. The US$1M number is still not a huge sum to the rich in HK or Sing or elsewhere.

If you want it as a long term home to live in for years then I would never avise against building your dream home.. For speculative gains I would say the risk level is higher than you percieve and the returns may not be as large..

*** There is risk, probably the greatest risk I see is the gov't coming in and screwing with people setting up companies to buy homes. That does scare me. The thought of a beautiful home not being able to be sold for at least my 20M baht investment doesn't scare me.

I have been in construction and real estate development until retiring to Thailand (at 28) and now I simply actively manage my investments.. I thought I would get into the market here and I dont deny that good money can be made but have also seen a lot of good money lost.. Mine stays offshore..

*** all eggs in one basket isn't a good idea, I have assets off shore also but I think there's a ton of money to make here. The returns are great. I have a couple of condo's in BKK and get an 8% return on them. That's great return, no I'm not worried about the upcoming condo market crash. My location is great, it'll be hit, but less hard than the Sukumvit area. Even if it does go down in value, the location is so great the demand for rental will continue. Maybe my return goes down to 6%, I'm holding the condo's for many years, there will be a return, cycles are all about that. For long term rentals, BKK is good, for vacation home returns, the islands are better. That being said, in both cases, it's location, location, location.

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LivinLOS    3,353
It is a meaningful comparison due to the fact I am in Patong Phuket.. This is probably the highest rental return per invested capital on the island due to highest tourist numbers etc...

So MY home at approx 25 mil value (600k USD) compares a lot to Your inward 500k investment... My location is one of high rental returns (I could get this place for less outside of Patong but still on Phuket) at 70k per month and its still a lot worse (on the invested sum) then my investments perform outside of Thai juristiction..

***I still can't really understand what you have.  Is the home valued at US$600K owned by you?  Are you renting a $600K home owned by someone else and paying 70K baht/mo?  Are you renting out your 600K home for 70K baht/mo???  If you're getting 70k baht/mo on a home worth US$600K then your getting about 3% return.  I would hope your getting better return abroad.  I think this is probably not your meaning but I can't figure out what you do mean.

Thats exactly what I am saying... I rent a home for 70k per month... The value of the home on the market is approx 25+... the owner of the home is getting a piss poor return on his capital.. And then he has to maintain it out of that 70k..

Also to be considered is the global state of the worlds ecomomies... Deficits spiralling out of control.. Nearly all the western economies hiunged and leveraged on massive credit both persoanl and government.. Recession looming.. Property bubble fueled by credit influx like the world has never seen before... Highly possible for a real estate crash and resulting severe depression in the global economy over the next 2 - 5 year timeframe.. If this happens expect the second home / holiday home / rich retirers market to be effected..

*** If we have a global recession, the problem will not be limited to my Samui Villa.  All assets will be hit.  Any money in the stock market or in other equites will be hit regardless. 

Correct hence the reason I have made 6 digit returns (usd) in the last 12 months investing in recession proof or benefiting investments (gold / silver / real money), in fact made very close to 5 digit gains in silver this week alone.. The recent counter trend USD rally is a temporary step in the downward spiral.. Paul Volker (formed Fed chairman and ultimate conservite speaker) claims an 80% probability in a dollar collapse and global instability in a 2 - 5 year timeframe..

Housing equity and in turn the US economy (and in turn much of the rest of the world) is tetering on the brink of a credit crunch that will make the stock market issues look like a playground.. So get out of USD.. Get out of the bulk of equity.. Get into commodities and hard money..

*** I am concerned that prices have gone up in Samui but it's really not yet developed at all.  Over the next 2 or 3 years, you will see likely hundreds of huge homes going up.  But the island isn't getting bigger, when it's fully developed, they won't be developing any more homes.  Even if we get some hundreds of new huge villas on the island, the demand from HK/Sing and worldwide isn't going away.  The US$1M number is still not a huge sum to the rich in HK or Sing or elsewhere.

Those buyers will be fleeing the market in droves if the possible economic picture I paint does come to fruition.. Of course I cant guarantee it but I would say that it is more probable than improbable at this point.. The exact time scale you consider is approx in the aftermath and bursting of the houseing bubble (which every one from the Fed down says is coming)..

Building your dream home is one thing.. Speculating in real estate towards the end of a real estate bubble in a volatile location is something I would be very careful off...

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The_Moog    0
there will be a lot of millionaires either moving to Samui or just keeping million dollar homes

What is this obsession about 'millionaires' ?!

Most people with liquid assets of that size don't generally label themselves.

If only to avoid being tabbed for drinks all the time.

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BANGKOK 25 September 2017 16:57
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