rooster59

May ready for tough talks over Brexit

4,541 posts in this topic

9 minutes ago, Xircal said:

 

There's no growing unease about free movement of workers across the rest of the EU as far as I'm aware. Why would you think that there was?

 

If Schengen borders were secure, I don't think there is a major problem. But in the current febrile environment there are problems in several northern EU states which require attention. How to deal with the specific UK issue is a bit different. Maybe the collapsing pound will produce its own solution.

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ID: 52   Posted (edited)

4 hours ago, Khun Han said:

 

If they put a lid on their arrogance and condescension Bill, all they have left is speculation that keeps getting confounded by events, thirteen admin jobs from a fancy dress costume company going to Holland, and THE EXCHANGE RATE!!! (:shock1:). Much easier to call anyone not agreeing with them (including the prime minister) stupid in as many 'clever' ways that they can think of.

 

Yes, the exchange rate. IMHO, dismissal of sterling's precipitous drop is not something which is exactly the smartest thing to do, but I can appreciate the distress suffered of others pointing it out.

Edited by SheungWan

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4 hours ago, SheungWan said:

 

Yes, the exchange rate. IMHO, dismissal of sterling's precipitous drop is not something which is exactly the smartest thing to do, but I can appreciate the distress suffered of others pointing it out.

 

On that note:

 

"The pound has found some support as traders recognize that its depreciation has benefits for a nation that’s struggling to boost exports and needs to fund a record current-account deficit. Sterling traders were also encouraged by U.K. Chancellor of the Exchequer Philip Hammond’s suggestion this week that the government wants to keep all options open as it leaves the EU. Still, most of the pound’s moves in recent months have been downward -- and there’s little suggestion that this is set to change. Pound forecasters polled by Bloomberg are more bearish than ever on the U.K. currency’s prospects.  And though the $1.25 median year-end prediction is now stronger than the exchange rate, that reflects how difficult it’s been for strategists to keep pace with sterling’s slide, rather than optimism about a bounce. “What we should expect now is a certain amount of quiet before the next lurch lower,” said SocGen’s Juckes.

 

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-10-22/pound-s-uncomfortable-truce-can-t-mask-the-risk-of-abrupt-swings

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5 hours ago, chiang mai said:

 

On that note:

 

"The pound has found some support as traders recognize that its depreciation has benefits for a nation that’s struggling to boost exports and needs to fund a record current-account deficit. Sterling traders were also encouraged by U.K. Chancellor of the Exchequer Philip Hammond’s suggestion this week that the government wants to keep all options open as it leaves the EU. Still, most of the pound’s moves in recent months have been downward -- and there’s little suggestion that this is set to change. Pound forecasters polled by Bloomberg are more bearish than ever on the U.K. currency’s prospects.  And though the $1.25 median year-end prediction is now stronger than the exchange rate, that reflects how difficult it’s been for strategists to keep pace with sterling’s slide, rather than optimism about a bounce. “What we should expect now is a certain amount of quiet before the next lurch lower,” said SocGen’s Juckes.

 

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-10-22/pound-s-uncomfortable-truce-can-t-mask-the-risk-of-abrupt-swings

 

Yes, that's a good piece!

 

I agree with all of the points made

 

Be interesting to see how it gets shot down 🙂

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If they put a lid on their arrogance and condescension Bill, all they have left is speculation that keeps getting confounded by events, thirteen admin jobs from a fancy dress costume company going to Holland, and THE EXCHANGE RATE!!! (:shock1:). Much easier to call anyone not agreeing with them (including the prime minister) stupid in as many 'clever' ways that they can think of.



The chief executive of the bankers association has some news for you

http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/oct/22/leading-banks-set-to-pull-out-of-brexit-uk?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other


Sent from my iPhone using Thaivisa Connect

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33 minutes ago, Johnyo said:

 

 


The chief executive of the bankers association has some news for you

http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/oct/22/leading-banks-set-to-pull-out-of-brexit-uk?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other


Sent from my iPhone using Thaivisa Connect

 

 

 

Very worrying. Confirmed by Reuters

https://www.google.co.uk/amp/mobile.reuters.com/article/amp/idUSKCN12M0U7?client=safari

 

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15 hours ago, Khun Han said:

 

If they put a lid on their arrogance and condescension Bill, all they have left is speculation that keeps getting confounded by events, thirteen admin jobs from a fancy dress costume company going to Holland, and THE EXCHANGE RATE!!! (:shock1:). Much easier to call anyone not agreeing with them (including the prime minister) stupid in as many 'clever' ways that they can think of.

 

Here's a good quote from H L Mencken

 

"Democracy is the theory that the common people know what they want, and deserve to get it good and hard"

 

:smile:

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1 hour ago, Johnyo said:

 

 


The chief executive of the bankers association has some news for you

http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/oct/22/leading-banks-set-to-pull-out-of-brexit-uk?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other


Sent from my iPhone using Thaivisa Connect

 

 

On the other hand, having such a concentration of financial institutions gives them a disproportionate amount of power in the UK.  They played a major role in getting the Tories to slash taxes on the wealthy to cut services to the unemployed and to  inadequately fund the NHS.  Perhaps that is one reason why the middle class in other Northern European nations mostly has it so much better than do the British.  The pestilence has largely been confined to the UK.

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15 hours ago, Khun Han said:

My prediction (everybody seems to good at these on here) is that PM May will continue to cut a balance between stated aims and 'singing nice songs' whilst keeping the UK's negotiating cards close to her chest. The deal eventually struck will be quota-based immigration with some restrictions on lower skills migrants. And a trade deal costing an annual fee of several (but less than ten) billion Euros which will also be quota-based, with quite high minimum quotas for import of German and French products and services and a few from other countries to give an appearance of fairness.

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2016/may/10/uk-trade-deficit-hits-new-record-of-24bn-pounds-eu-referendum-brexit

 

Figures from the ONS showed that Europe is gradually becoming a less important destination for UK companies. In 2000, 60% of exports went to other EU countries, but the percentage fell to 58% in 2005, 54% in 2010 and 47% in 2015.

                                                            -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

The UK doesn't need the EU to be successful. The EU will implode. A hard brexit is better than allowing negotiations to drag on and on. It is not what T May wants, it is what the EU will allow the UK. The arrogance of people like Junker is enough to walk away from the table now.

 

I am sure the EU think the UK will come cap in hand begging for a trade deal. Pull the rug from under their feet and leave as soon as article 50 is enacted. no negotiating. For the UK to get a good deal they need the threaten the survival of the EU.

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43 minutes ago, Grouse said:

 

Here's a good quote from H L Mencken

 

"Democracy is the theory that the common people know what they want, and deserve to get it good and hard"

 

:smile:

 did you watch Paxman on Trump and Clinton? :whistling: 

I'm with Churchill when he said 

 

"The best argument against democracy is a five-minute conversation with the average voter." 

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1 minute ago, CharlieK said:

 did you watch Paxman on Trump and Clinton? :whistling: 

I'm with Churchill when he said 

 

"The best argument against democracy is a five-minute conversation with the average voter." 

 

I agree with that totally and completely.

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1 hour ago, Johnyo said:

 

 


The chief executive of the bankers association has some news for you

http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/oct/22/leading-banks-set-to-pull-out-of-brexit-uk?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other


Sent from my iPhone using Thaivisa Connect

 

 

 

Very worrying. Confirmed by Reuters

https://www.google.co.uk/amp/mobile.reuters.com/article/amp/idUSKCN12M0U7?client=safari

 

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30 minutes ago, CharlieK said:

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2016/may/10/uk-trade-deficit-hits-new-record-of-24bn-pounds-eu-referendum-brexit

 

Figures from the ONS showed that Europe is gradually becoming a less important destination for UK companies. In 2000, 60% of exports went to other EU countries, but the percentage fell to 58% in 2005, 54% in 2010 and 47% in 2015.

                                                            -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

The UK doesn't need the EU to be successful. The EU will implode. A hard brexit is better than allowing negotiations to drag on and on. It is not what T May wants, it is what the EU will allow the UK. The arrogance of people like Junker is enough to walk away from the table now.

 

I am sure the EU think the UK will come cap in hand begging for a trade deal. Pull the rug from under their feet and leave as soon as article 50 is enacted. no negotiating. For the UK to get a good deal they need the threaten the survival of the EU.

 

That's rather irresponsible.

 

The EU is still growing albeit at only 1.8% per annum. Our exports of products are falling because we don't make enough of what people actually want. Our services exports have held up since 2000, largely financial services. Right now we face a situation where our financial services could be mortally damaged by withdrawal of passporting rights. Manufactured exports are likely to be hit by tariffs and non tariff barriers. 

 

But hey! Think of the sovereignty!

 

Did you see the video of that young chap at the start of this thread? Have a look! 

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54 minutes ago, CharlieK said:

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2016/may/10/uk-trade-deficit-hits-new-record-of-24bn-pounds-eu-referendum-brexit

 

Figures from the ONS showed that Europe is gradually becoming a less important destination for UK companies. In 2000, 60% of exports went to other EU countries, but the percentage fell to 58% in 2005, 54% in 2010 and 47% in 2015.

                                                            -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

The UK doesn't need the EU to be successful. The EU will implode. A hard brexit is better than allowing negotiations to drag on and on. It is not what T May wants, it is what the EU will allow the UK. The arrogance of people like Junker is enough to walk away from the table now.

 

I am sure the EU think the UK will come cap in hand begging for a trade deal. Pull the rug from under their feet and leave as soon as article 50 is enacted. no negotiating. For the UK to get a good deal they need the threaten the survival of the EU.

 

If risking a percentage figure of 47% in a threatening bluff becomes the Conservative Government line then sterling is going down even more. If anybody thinks that the above has a high risk reality then they should significantly hedge out of sterling now. PS nutty argument big font is a bit of a giveaway.

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ID: 65   Posted (edited)

3 hours ago, Johnyo said:

 

 


The chief executive of the bankers association has some news for you

http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/oct/22/leading-banks-set-to-pull-out-of-brexit-uk?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other


Sent from my iPhone using Thaivisa Connect

 

 

 

Well, he doesn't have much actual news, but.....

 

I'm not going to brush this off with a facetious comment like 'come back to us when they've actually gone', in the way that Sgt Rock's important updates on Deutsche Bank are dismissed.

 

This has to be a worry for the UK. Not a worst case scenario, but a bad case one. Anthony Browne has stated that many banks are putting contingency plans in place to move some operations in the event of a hard brexit. And why wouldn't they? They have voiced concerns that an 'equivalence' deal is too limited.

 

One thing we've learned from how PM May's government operates is that it doesn't give running commentaries. I tend to like this way, but one of the downsides is that it can leave important entities feeling left out. I would be astonished if the government don't have a strategy in place for the banks, just as they did with the foreign-owned car industry. And I expect they will call the banks in soon enough, just as they are doing with the car industry, to discuss this strategy.

 

I see this story as a shot across the bows of the government by the banking industry. It wouldn't surprise me if the story quietly dies in the coming weeks. If it grows legs, then there are fairly big problems on the horizon.

Edited by Khun Han
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"This has to be a worry for the UK. Not a worst case scenario, but a bad case one.' - there wouldn't be this scenario if we had ignored the referendum - it was clearly not in the national interest - there has been months of uncertainty now and no sign of any kind of improvement whatsoever...yet Brexiteers keep refusing to admit what a blunder it has been.

 

"I would be astonished if the government don't have a strategy in place for the banks, just as they did with the foreign-owned car industry. And I expect they will call the banks in soon enough, just as they are doing with the car industry, to discuss this strategy.' there is no policy for the motor industry they are just trying to stop it from leaving as they will have to do with most businesses vver the next 2 years if they continue with Brexit.

- the point is they had NO strategy for any of these industries before Brexit, they are just running round like headless chickens reacting to stuff they were warned about BEFORE the referendum

 

 

i think the main problem with Brexiteers is they aren't even a loosely tied grouping they have agendas tat are completely opposing to other brexiteers - agendas but no policies and any policies (e.g. soft or hard) can't be agreed on when they are belatedly put forward.....it is a mess and a mess created by Brexiteers.

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ID: 67   Posted (edited)

9 hours ago, chiang mai said:

 

On that note:

 

"The pound has found some support as traders recognize that its depreciation has benefits for a nation that’s struggling to boost exports and needs to fund a record current-account deficit. Sterling traders were also encouraged by U.K. Chancellor of the Exchequer Philip Hammond’s suggestion this week that the government wants to keep all options open as it leaves the EU. Still, most of the pound’s moves in recent months have been downward -- and there’s little suggestion that this is set to change. Pound forecasters polled by Bloomberg are more bearish than ever on the U.K. currency’s prospects.  And though the $1.25 median year-end prediction is now stronger than the exchange rate, that reflects how difficult it’s been for strategists to keep pace with sterling’s slide, rather than optimism about a bounce. “What we should expect now is a certain amount of quiet before the next lurch lower,” said SocGen’s Juckes.

 

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-10-22/pound-s-uncomfortable-truce-can-t-mask-the-risk-of-abrupt-swings

 

"as traders recognize that its depreciation has benefits for a nation that’s struggling"

not really the traders just recognise a dead cat bounce when they see it.

 

as for benefits -10% of the economy relies on exports - not a big slice and they would hae to double that now to compensate forloss of importing buying poer - e.g raw materials food etc which is just going to go up in price.

Edited by cumgranosalum

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ID: 68   Posted (edited)

She's about as ready as a rheumatic tortoise trying to cross a motorway in front of a fleet of 100mph turbo-charged road-rollers drive by Ted Nugent and his family.

 

"don't worry, I'm wearing a shell!"

Edited by cumgranosalum

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ID: 69   Posted (edited)

Another H L Mencken pearl:

 

"Democracy is the pathetic belief in the collective wisdom of individual ignorance"

Edited by Grouse

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8 minutes ago, Grouse said:

Another H L Mencken pearl:

 

"Democracy is the pathetic belief in the collective wisdom of individual ignorance"

What d'you reckon then? Dictatorship? A PAD-style 'academy' of 'democrats'?

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6 minutes ago, Khun Han said:

What d'you reckon then? Dictatorship? A PAD-style 'academy' of 'democrats'?

 

The man died 60 years ago

 

However, parliamentary democracy trumps plebiscites for obvious reasons IMHO.

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2 minutes ago, Grouse said:

 

The man died 60 years ago

 

However, parliamentary democracy trumps plebiscites for obvious reasons IMHO.

 

I'm of the view that they can complement each other. It can stop elected officials from getting too far ahead of themselves.

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1 hour ago, Khun Han said:

 

I'm of the view that they can complement each other. It can stop elected officials from getting too far ahead of themselves.

In a country like UK they are a tool for single issue crusaders - not for democracy......they merely reflect the whim of those who voted on one particular day.

in fact they usually slow the process of government in the long run and prove to work against real democratic principles - a simple majority is not democracy, it is mob rule.

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1 hour ago, nontabury said:

 

He cannot help but be confrontional,it's the result of arrogance, this being one of the reasons, no female will stay with him.

 


Here's your personal link to the forum rules, you seem to think they don't apply to you:

 

https://www.thaivisa.com/forum/terms/

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BANGKOK 26 April 2017 11:13
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