midas

In what ways would Thailand be affected economically if World War 3 starts?

70 posts in this topic

I keep wondering about this question as the war drums beat louder every day.

One immediate effect I could foresee early in a war would be a dramatic shortage of fuel particularly  if Iran becomes involved and carries out its long-standing threat to close the Strait of Hormuz through which on average, 14 crude oil tankers pass through each day carrying an estimated 17 million barrels which is more than a third of the world’s seaborne oil. 

 

Quote

Former hedge fund manager Martin Armstrong, who is an expert on economic and political cycles, says, “You have to understand what makes war even take place? It does not unfold when everybody is fat and happy. Simple as that. You turn the economy down, and that’s when you get war. It’s the way politics works.”

http://www.shtfplan.com/headline-news/is-world-war-the-twisted-cure-for-a-doomed-economy-signals-for-war-are-fiscal_04192017

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ID: 2   Posted (edited)

Judging from WW2 and VN, my guess is they'd give aid and rights of port and air strips etc, to the country with the most influence on them.

 

Japan has built alot of public works projects in throughtout Thailand, the US still helps out militarily. My guess is the US  and it's asian allies will take care of LOS. 

 

The big question is how will the Chinese figure into it all.

Edited by Rob13
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ID: 3   Posted (edited)

31 minutes ago, Rob13 said:

Judging from WW2 and VN, my guess is they'd give aid and rights of port and air strips etc, to the country with the most influence on them.

 

Japan has built alot of public works projects in throughtout Thailand, the US still helps out militarily. My guess is the US  and it's asian allies will take care of LOS. 

 

The big question is how will the Chinese figure into it all.

Interesting question indeed!

I can't see them cosying up to America this time because geopolitics has changed so much since WW2 and VN and Thailand's relationship with USA today involves millions of visitors coming from China and infrastructure projects like high-speed rail.

Just because China has turned its back on North Korea doesn't mean it's turned its back on its relations with Russia and what's left of the decimated ambitions of BRICS so I don't think they will upset China by supporting USA.

In fact the Wall Street Journal wrote about when this shift started to happen in 2015

 

Thailand Tilts Away From the U.S.

The military snubs its longtime ally to buy Chinese subs.

 

https://www.wsj.com/articles/thailand-tilts-away-from-the-u-s-1435678360

Edited by midas

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Yeah, i think alot of small east asian countries may be thinking these days that China's not so bad. They're good trsding partners and they're predictable. If a war were to break out today, going with China might be a better looking option than relying on the US.

 

I think Japan would drop their self defense policy and be a big player in the region. Hard to imagine in peace time,but if the PRC was involved SK might align themselves with Japan( and the US)against the NK and Beijing. It'd be a scary war whatever happens.

 

The way trump is though you gotta wonder how many allied countries would turn their back on.the US.

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It would have to print the flags or the protagonists ,like it did during WW2.Oh ,we were on your side realy.


Sent from my iPhone using Thaivisa Connect

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If WW III were to break out I certainly wouldn't give a to$$ about the economic impact on Thailand, tbh. 

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22 hours ago, reenatinnakor said:

A better question would be how do we defend ourselves from a zombie outbreak? Or an alien invasion? Both of these are more likely than ww3 breaking out.

Sent from my LG-H990 using Thailand Forum - Thaivisa mobile app
 

Agreed, WWlll will be total and nothing left.

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In what ways would Thailand be affected economically if World War 3 starts?

If it involves nuclear weapons being used, I would think the economic and population impact would bear little resemblance to WW2 or the American war in Vietnam. It's unlikely to depend that much on "boots on the ground" at least initially. Some people above are thinking in terms of armies of men shooting at each other from ditches. Even in "minor" skirmishes or attempts to defeat terrorists ... missiles into Syria or bombs dropped on Afghanistan ... it's hardly comparable to the style of warfare in WW2 and the O/P asked about a "World War."

 

With Comrades Kim Jong Donald and Kim Jong Un calling the shots, thinking in terms of battles fought  50 or 70 years ago is unrealistic ... old men fighting the last war.

 

nukes.jpg.dd186107f61216e0637311f75b3c1ed9.jpg 

 

 

 

 

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17 minutes ago, Suradit69 said:

If it involves nuclear weapons being used, I would think the economic and population impact would bear little resemblance to WW2 or the American war in Vietnam. It's unlikely to depend that much on "boots on the ground" at least initially. Some people above are thinking in terms of armies of men shooting at each other from ditches. Even in "minor" skirmishes or attempts to defeat terrorists ... missiles into Syria or bombs dropped on Afghanistan ... it's hardly comparable to the style of warfare in WW2 and the O/P asked about a "World War."

 

With Comrades Kim Jong Donald and Kim Jong Un calling the shots, thinking in terms of battles fought  50 or 70 years ago is unrealistic ... old men fighting the last war.

 

nukes.jpg.dd186107f61216e0637311f75b3c1ed9.jpg 

 

 

 

 

Realistically north Korea's attempt would be over before it has begun. All depends on what big brother China's reaction is.

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The question itself is redundant as we all will be nuked.

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23 hours ago, Rob13 said:

Yeah, i think alot of small east asian countries may be thinking these days that China's not so bad. They're good trsding partners and they're predictable. If a war were to break out today, going with China might be a better looking option than relying on the US.

 

I think Japan would drop their self defense policy and be a big player in the region. Hard to imagine in peace 

 

The way trump is though you gotta wonder how many allied countries would turn their back on.the US.

None would.

 

Some leaders may not agree entirely, but they're not stupid.

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BANGKOK 27 July 2017 23:55
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