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Patong - The Wake

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Imho there is now no reason to buy. I made the best deals here when all wanted to get out of the door at same time like in 1997.

I will keep the land and 2 houses what i have and when the market is burning again then sure i will buy again. Preferable land plots.

 

How will be the impact on Phuket when the US interest rates continue to rise and the economic growth in China tends to shrink more?

Where will the big smart money goes? How will China react?

Will Thailand get high fewer when the chinese brother sneezing a lot?

 

This is only 1 aspect in my consideration and i'm not sure about all answers but buying time will come again.

 

 

 

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1 hour ago, xylophone said:

 

<snip>

As I said, the above has helped shape my views on investing here and I know that people like LiK bought land and built many years ago and has made a good living out of it, however I do believe those days are probably long gone and anyway the posts that I have referred to have been mainly focused on the likes of condos and perhaps houses.

 

 

Completely agree. Even the 2 plots of sea view land we bought 15 years in Kata I decided not to waste money building, furnishing, and managing.  The land value is appreciating nicely and we could sell at short notice. But my wife likes the coconut and banana trees.

 

Those starting a business on a 3 year lease are destined to fail ... and quickly.

Edited by LivinginKata
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2 hours ago, xylophone said:

I don't want to get into the crosshairs of any argument, however it's easy to see both sides of it.

 

And I also think it depends upon whether one is buying something like a condo so that they can rent it out, or buying it in which to live, and to a certain extent depends upon the individual's experience in the marketplace here.

 

If I look at the experiences which have shaped my beliefs with regards to investing here (I have bought property in 3 countries and made a profit on all), they don't make good reading, hence I won't invest now and there are several other aspects to consider: –

 

I have mentioned that a friend's new penthouse, bought for 18 million baht, sold for 11 million baht three years later; a house bought for 5.25 million baht sold for 4 million baht just two years later; 62 m² one-bedroom apartment bought for 2.6 million baht sold for 1.55 million just recently, so these examples don’t make good reading.

 

Not only that one has to dodge the misleading information such as 30+30+30 year leases etc, not to mention the ‘”buyback clause after 15 years” scenario.

 

And I know of many properties that have been on the market for well over five years and have never moved.

 

I did mention other aspects to consider, and again, these are from experience: –

 

A friend's beautiful house with pool had a hotel built just a meter from the side of his property, which not only cut out much of the light, but was also noisy because of all the air-conditioners facing his property, not to mention a lack of privacy. So he went to 2 local lawyers to try and sue the developer and both of them refused to handle the case because they were pressured into dropping it by the developer, who had contacts here.

 

Luckily this friend was very wealthy and went to Bangkok and hired a top lawyer who successfully sued the developer and they had to buy the property for 27 million baht.

 

Now if this was any ordinary and non-wealthy farang, this would never have happened and he would have been stuck with an unsaleable property and something which was not at all what he had wanted.

 

A house rented out next to a friend of mines house, was inhabited by noisy partygoers who insisted on blaring music and noise until the wee small hours and nothing that my friend could do would stop this. He even contacted the agent who was handling the rental and he could do nothing either, so his life was a misery for many months.

 

I could go on, but I think one gets the gist of it and that is that this place is unlike others and you have very little comeback if neighbours or developers make your life a misery.

 

Finally, of course there are the poor individuals who have invested in the ACE condominiums and the developers have made off with the money, and according to reports in several newspapers, the BIB know who they are, but yet nothing has been done about it – – I wonder why?

 

Similarly, I wonder if the investors in the failed Phanason development in Nanai road will ever get their money back. Debatable, because rumour has it that the company has gone bust.

 

As I said, the above has helped shape my views on investing here and I know that people like LiK bought land and built many years ago and has made a good living out of it, however I do believe those days are probably long gone and anyway the posts that I have referred to have been mainly focused on the likes of condos and perhaps houses.

 

Being that this is a thread about "Patong – the Wake" there is another unwanted spin-off from the likes of the condos which a couple of posters have said they are selling loads of – – if they are anything like the Patong Bay Hill Resort condos with all of their super-duper promises, well these are rented out to cheap Chinese whose tours are arranged by agents in China, so they are in effect part of the zero baht tourist conundrum which is prevalent here in Patong – – i.e. plenty of visitors, but low spend, therefore the economy and many small businesses are suffering. 

 

I think most people, including myself, would agree that there are significant risks to property investing in Phuket

 

However, i hope you would also agree that there are significant risks to property investing everywhere in the world. 

 

Pretty much everything you highlighted above can/has happened in developed countries around the world as well.

 

Personally i have heard similar stories from friends in both Canada and the USA.

 

Currently, many analysts suggest that the biggest real eatate bubbles in the world are in  developed markets such as Toronto, HK, Sydney, Melbourne, Auckland, Singapore, London, NYC, Miami, San Fran, Seattle, and Vancouver etc. Buyer beware there, and it may be a great time to sell if you own anything in those markets.

 

The bottom line is, it is impossible to generalize about phuket property, as some people will still lose allot of money, and others will still make allot of profit. As always, if you buy for the right price in the right location, you may be very successful. If you overpay and/or choose wrong location you are probably gonna get burned.

 

Now is not the time to buy anything off-plan in phuket. However, dig around and you can find some great deals on high yielding existing properties. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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28 minutes ago, Mysterion said:

Pretty much everything you highlighted above can/has happened in developed countries around the world as well.

IMO a statement that is far too glib and does not address the concerns I highlighted in my post.....namely here there is next to no avenue to pursue if a buyer has been lied to in regards to lease conditions or real estate agents promises; nothing to stop a developer building you out; no restraints on neighbours and what they do and no action to be taken if the person concerned has "contacts" here. Whereas in other countries there is.

 

Furthermore there are real estate industry bodies which oversee best practises and fine/dismiss/shut down rogue operators. Not here.

 

In addition I can take you to any number of Lawyers here who will set up a Thai Nominee Company in order to let you "buy/own" land/a property. Totally illegal yet they still flourish.  

 

28 minutes ago, Mysterion said:

As always, if you buy for the right price in the right location, you may be very successful

All of the examples I quoted did just that......and lost money!

 

This is still the Wild West as regards real estate and enforceable legislation, and the cowboys and their associates reap the benefits.

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2 hours ago, xylophone said:

IMO a statement that is far too glib and does not address the concerns I highlighted in my post.....namely here there is next to no avenue to pursue if a buyer has been lied to in regards to lease conditions or real estate agents promises; nothing to stop a developer building you out; no restraints on neighbours and what they do and no action to be taken if the person concerned has "contacts" here. Whereas in other countries there is.

 

Furthermore there are real estate industry bodies which oversee best practises and fine/dismiss/shut down rogue operators. Not here.

 

In addition I can take you to any number of Lawyers here who will set up a Thai Nominee Company in order to let you "buy/own" land/a property. Totally illegal yet they still flourish.  

 

All of the examples I quoted did just that......and lost money!

 

This is still the Wild West as regards real estate and enforceable legislation, and the cowboys and their associates reap the benefits.

I do agree that that those specific risks are here in thailand, and probably to a greater extent than some more-developed nations.

 

Keeping in mind that property related taxes are much lower(or non-exisitant) in Thailand, and the general income tax base is much smaller than wealthy countries, and hence you tend to get less regulation/policing and more of a “wild west” mentality for everything. 

 

Often you will also find the most astute investors making the greatest returns where risk perception is highest, in any asset class.

 

Lets not forget the millions of people who lost everything in real estate during the USA market crash in 2007. Imagine all the guarantees offered by real estate decelopers and agents back in 2005/6 before the massive crash. It was hard if not impossible for those buyers to successfully sue anyone for recourse as well. That was the USA version of the asian financial crisis.

 

Those who cannot handle the risks and are not willing to do the required research, should definitely stay out of the property market everywhere.

 

At the end of the day, buying distressed property sales is the best strategy in thailand, as you tend to have a good margin of safety if things don't go as rosy as planned...and there are indeed quite a few distressed sellers here who paid far too much over the past years.

 

 

 

 

 

 

Edited by Mysterion
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2 hours ago, xylophone said:
2 hours ago, Mysterion said:

As always, if you buy for the right price in the right location, you may be very successful

All of the examples I quoted did just that......and lost money!

 

How did they lose money if they originally bought it well below the market value in a good location?

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14 hours ago, schlog said:

Imho there is now no reason to buy. I made the best deals here when all wanted to get out of the door at same time like in 1997.

I will keep the land and 2 houses what i have and when the market is burning again then sure i will buy again. Preferable land plots.

 

How will be the impact on Phuket when the US interest rates continue to rise and the economic growth in China tends to shrink more?

Where will the big smart money goes? How will China react?

Will Thailand get high fewer when the chinese brother sneezing a lot?

 

This is only 1 aspect in my consideration and i'm not sure about all answers but buying time will come again.

 

 

 

Land is the way to go there is no depreciation That's how i invested and made most of my money, 

Nothing worth buying in Phuket at present its all very overpriced, i missed out on one block of land that has now been bought and resold twice and is really overpriced at present

Looked at 2 blocks of land in Phangnga one 14 rai with 2 year old rubber trees on it for 3M and the other 17 rai with a producing palm oil plantation on it for 7M, both negotiable prices, but both owners seemed to think that because some of the land had been promised to or was being used by another family member it may not be included in the sale even though its on the title deed, to much of a hassle to be bothered with purchasing them and i am not interested in farming anyway

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12 hours ago, Mysterion said:

I do agree that that those specific risks are here in thailand, and probably to a greater extent than some more-developed nations.

 

Keeping in mind that property related taxes are much lower(or non-exisitant) in Thailand, and the general income tax base is much smaller than wealthy countries, and hence you tend to get less regulation/policing and more of a “wild west” mentality for everything. 

 

Often you will also find the most astute investors making the greatest returns where risk perception is highest, in any asset class.

 

Lets not forget the millions of people who lost everything in real estate during the USA market crash in 2007. Imagine all the guarantees offered by real estate decelopers and agents back in 2005/6 before the massive crash. It was hard if not impossible for those buyers to successfully sue anyone for recourse as well. That was the USA version of the asian financial crisis.

 

Those who cannot handle the risks and are not willing to do the required research, should definitely stay out of the property market everywhere.

 

At the end of the day, buying distressed property sales is the best strategy in thailand, as you tend to have a good margin of safety if things don't go as rosy as planned...and there are indeed quite a few distressed sellers here who paid far too much over the past years.

 

 

 

 

 

 

At the end of the day, buying distressed property sales is the best strategy in Thailand

 

Starting with the positive in your post, looking for "distressed sales" would seem to be a way to go if one was thinking of investing in property here, thereby potentially insuring themselves somewhat against any future downturns.

 

Lets not forget the millions of people who lost everything in real estate during the USA market crash in 2007. Imagine all the guarantees offered by real estate developers and agents back in 2005/6 before the massive crash. It was hard if not impossible for those buyers to successfully sue anyone for recourse as well”.

 

That was a totally different scenario in relation to what I have posted, because people did not lose their money or houses or businesses for that matter by virtue of misrepresentation by real estate agents or crooked developers. They lost everything because of a crash initiated by out of control lending and the financial engineering whizzkids in Wall Street when they dreamed up CDOs which were a worthless type of bond. 


Those who cannot handle the risks and are not willing to do the required research, should definitely stay out of the property market everywhere”.

 

Firstly there is a huge difference between the risks one faces when investing in other countries versus the risks one faces when investing here and I have already highlighted some of those (crooked real estate agents, crooked developers, corruption, friends in high places, no legislative body, lies etc).

 

In other countries there are some risks, however they are more to do with the property cycles and the peaks and troughs one encounters, and should the seller need to dispose of the property in one of the troughs, then they could lose money. However it's generally considered that in "normal" and regulated countries, long-term property investment is profitable, and that's probably why some farangs buy here, because they think they are buying in a country where similar things apply – – but they don't, and they don't realise they are swimming with sharks when looking at real estate here.

 

Secondly you mention potential buyers doing the "required research"...... using what I ask?

 

There are no registered valuers here as far as I know, with every man and his dog and real estate agent putting a price on a property which they basically pull out of a hat. The land office is no help whatsoever because all they have is the totally outdated and practically useless value of a piece of land, and of course we know that many of these entries in the land office have been "paid for" to suit various people's needs.

 

The whole real estate situation here is completely unregulated and the idea of "market value" is a nonsense because it can be anything that anyone decides to put on their property, so buying below "market value" is a lottery. This especially when real estate agents would have you believe it is, “a good buy”.

 

You ask, “How did they lose money if they originally bought it well below the market value in a good location”?

See above para for the answer.

 

So, if the potential buyer can get by crooked real estate agents, crooked developers, corrupt BIB, false promises with regards to the types of leases and buyback clauses etc, no comeback regarding misrepresentation and lawyers willing to set up a company which is illegal, then maybe, just maybe there may be a glimmer of hope, but it is such a huge risk, so why take it when rents are so low?

 

Mysterion.....I have stated my case and being a property owner and investor in a number of countries, I believe my thinking is sound. You have put together what you see and believe, but we are poles apart and no amount of other posts will change this. So I will take my leave on this subject and will try to post on "The Wake" soon.

 

PS. I have just received a Private Message from a former property owner here where his case/circumstances were EXACTLY the same as the nightmares I referred to in a previous post and because of friends in high places and no help from the BIB, he has sold at a loss and moved on.

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Sea view land is land where if sitting in your lounge room and and you look out the window you have a sea view which cannot be blocked by people building in front of it

I have not seen any land here advertised as sea view that actually has permanent a sea view

If your sea view is from a roof top terrace on a 2 storey building or a view partly block by the back of a condo block its not a sea view in my opinion( would you call it a condo view) and never will be, quite often people claim land is sea view when there is undeveloped land which when its built on in front of it will block any sea view completely

Land is permanent sea view when the view cannot be built out ever, there is one block of land at the north end of Nai Harn beach currently being built on that has a genuine sea view which can never be built out which is sea front and has a steep slope to it

I have seen a valley view house on Phuket that has a far better view than any of the sea view land i have inspected in Phuket which usually has a view of developed land(Kata/Karon or Patong)with the sea in the background 

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2 hours ago, xylophone said:

At the end of the day, buying distressed property sales is the best strategy in Thailand

 

Starting with the positive in your post, looking for "distressed sales" would seem to be a way to go if one was thinking of investing in property here, thereby potentially insuring themselves somewhat against any future downturns.

 

Lets not forget the millions of people who lost everything in real estate during the USA market crash in 2007. Imagine all the guarantees offered by real estate developers and agents back in 2005/6 before the massive crash. It was hard if not impossible for those buyers to successfully sue anyone for recourse as well”.

 

That was a totally different scenario in relation to what I have posted, because people did not lose their money or houses or businesses for that matter by virtue of misrepresentation by real estate agents or crooked developers. They lost everything because of a crash initiated by out of control lending and the financial engineering whizzkids in Wall Street when they dreamed up CDOs which were a worthless type of bond. 


Those who cannot handle the risks and are not willing to do the required research, should definitely stay out of the property market everywhere”.

 

Firstly there is a huge difference between the risks one faces when investing in other countries versus the risks one faces when investing here and I have already highlighted some of those (crooked real estate agents, crooked developers, corruption, friends in high places, no legislative body, lies etc).

 

In other countries there are some risks, however they are more to do with the property cycles and the peaks and troughs one encounters, and should the seller need to dispose of the property in one of the troughs, then they could lose money. However it's generally considered that in "normal" and regulated countries, long-term property investment is profitable, and that's probably why some farangs buy here, because they think they are buying in a country where similar things apply – – but they don't, and they don't realise they are swimming with sharks when looking at real estate here.

 

Secondly you mention potential buyers doing the "required research"...... using what I ask?

 

There are no registered valuers here as far as I know, with every man and his dog and real estate agent putting a price on a property which they basically pull out of a hat. The land office is no help whatsoever because all they have is the totally outdated and practically useless value of a piece of land, and of course we know that many of these entries in the land office have been "paid for" to suit various people's needs.

 

The whole real estate situation here is completely unregulated and the idea of "market value" is a nonsense because it can be anything that anyone decides to put on their property, so buying below "market value" is a lottery. This especially when real estate agents would have you believe it is, “a good buy”.

 

You ask, “How did they lose money if they originally bought it well below the market value in a good location”?

See above para for the answer.

 

So, if the potential buyer can get by crooked real estate agents, crooked developers, corrupt BIB, false promises with regards to the types of leases and buyback clauses etc, no comeback regarding misrepresentation and lawyers willing to set up a company which is illegal, then maybe, just maybe there may be a glimmer of hope, but it is such a huge risk, so why take it when rents are so low?

 

Mysterion.....I have stated my case and being a property owner and investor in a number of countries, I believe my thinking is sound. You have put together what you see and believe, but we are poles apart and no amount of other posts will change this. So I will take my leave on this subject and will try to post on "The Wake" soon.

 

PS. I have just received a Private Message from a former property owner here where his case/circumstances were EXACTLY the same as the nightmares I referred to in a previous post and because of friends in high places and no help from the BIB, he has sold at a loss and moved on.

I agree we have different views on the phuket property market, and thats what makes a market function.

 

Indeed there will be winners and losers here,  just like everywhere. 

 

I hope that this sub-discussion has painted a far-more balanced view for anyone interested in phuket property.

Edited by Mysterion
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" have not seen any land here advertised as sea view that actually has permanent a sea view "

look at land along Millionaires row or in the hills of Kamala, Plenty of seaview land available

with prices to match!!!

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7 hours ago, phuketrichard said:

look at land along Millionaires row or in the hills of Kamala, Plenty of seaview land available

with prices to match!!!

Yes i know but if i was prepared to pay the prices they are asking i would buy in Australia where i can actually own the land in my own name not a nominees or company name and hope they don't enforce the the current company laws and take it away from me

This is not Hong Kong or Singapore, more like Bali, i have not checked for many years but when i did foreigners could not own land there as well just lease

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