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Shoeless Joe

Thai Baht - Your take?

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7 hours ago, Bill97 said:

This seems to rapidly be developing into another of those threads where nobody is on topic because there was no clear topic in the OP.

I'll take a stab at guessing the real topic: ... "why is the Baht relatively stronger now against the US$ ?"

 

To put that in perspective, I think you have to ask the question: ... "is the US$ weaker against a wide range of other world-economy significant currencies?" Take a look at OANDA's currency heat-map (check the Baht entry, and China, and other Asian currencies) [1heat map link

 

The large number of currencies showing increased relative strength over the US$ (red) suggests to me the Baht's strength is not a significant determinant of the US$ strength ... at this moment.

 

Quote

no clear topic in the OP

I wonder if in the context of this forum "clear topic" is an oxymoron :)\

 

[1] Your choice of which countries you compare to is, of course, significant.

 

~o:37;

Edited by orang37
fix format error
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Jeez, was my post that difficult to understand?

 

I was merely pointing out that there were 2 TV stories with diametrically opposing views (which are still there) and asking the question, which one was right?:

1) That the baht is strengthening

2) That the baht is weakening

 

With the exception of the response from  KonKhaenCowboy (thank you, I hadn't thought of different timescales...duh!) most of the other answers are way too over-complicated.

 

Regards,

 

Joe

 

 

 

 

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Jeez, was my post that difficult to understand?
 
....which one was right?:
1) That the baht is strengthening
2) That the baht is weakening
 

They are both wrong.

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I believe that in the next year the baht will depreciated but not too much. As major rice and tourist competitors get stronger, Thailand will probably need to keep the currency a bit weaker. Having said that my granddaughter and her friend have just returned from 6 months in Thailand and they thought it was dirt cheap, so its doesn't seem to be hurting tourism, but exports might suffer. 

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On 7/28/2017 at 8:58 AM, robblok said:

The Euro and Pound are gaining a bit on the Baht.. its just the dollar that is tanking, Thrump was a good choice it seems. 

Trump wanted the dollar to fall.

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3 minutes ago, johnmcc6 said:

Trump wanted the dollar to fall.

Jobs Jobs Jobs, Exports Exports Exports, Go Donald go you know it makes sense.

Trump is fixated with China's currency manipulation and probably aware of other countries too, including Thailand.

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On 7/28/2017 at 9:05 AM, tonray said:

even with interest rates on the rise, Trump's follies are scaring the hell out of markets.

Interest rates haven't moved up much in the US despite the Fed's actions and the two-year/10-year rate spread is less than 100 basis points, but I agree that Trump and the dysfunctional Congress are what makes the baht, Euro and pound appear to be strengthening. 

 

rates.png.bdad310f3398c8ea0ecdd194e5298a01.png  donald-trump.jpg.f219f18ca59ff192e91406249ea3dd7a.jpg

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On 7/28/2017 at 8:58 AM, robblok said:

The Euro and Pound are gaining a bit on the Baht.. its just the dollar that is tanking, Thrump was a good choice it seems. 

Google Dow (stock market US) price as of Nov 1,  2016  It was a little over 18,000 points 3 weeks before the election. After Trump was elected  it has risen to almost 22,000 points as of July 28, 2017 . That's a rise of almost 4,000 points in a little over 6 months and is higher now than it has ever been.  Guess Trump was the right choice.

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2 hours ago, uptheos said:

Trump is fixated with China's currency manipulation and probably aware of other countries too, including Thailand.

You can't seriously think Trump has any intended or tactical influence on the exchange rates or that he has a clue what's happening in Thailand. The recent more dramatic drops in the dollar index followed his new milestones of failure to get any of his legislative agenda to move forward despite holding a majority in Congress.

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2 hours ago, johnmcc6 said:

Trump wanted the dollar to fall.

And he wanted to repeal ObamaCare, ban all Muslims, reduce the corporate tax rates, build a wall on the Mexican border ...

What's happening has very little to do with what he wants.

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The sidebar is resting on the lower bar which is currently applying great pressure to my throat that is connected to my hands that are holding brexit pounds.   

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8 hours ago, Shoeless Joe said:

Jeez, was my post that difficult to understand?

 

I was merely pointing out that there were 2 TV stories with diametrically opposing views (which are still there) and asking the question, which one was right?:

1) That the baht is strengthening

2) That the baht is weakening

 

With the exception of the response from  KonKhaenCowboy (thank you, I hadn't thought of different timescales...duh!) most of the other answers are way too over-complicated.

 

Regards,

 

Joe

 

 

 

 

Hi Shoeless Joe from kokomo

 

To answer your question... if you are accustomed to reading financial guidance papers and such, on any given day you will find many experts who think the market is going up and many who think it is going down - some see a huge increase and others a drastic crash... and you can never really be sure of their motivation. Truth is nobody can be 100% sure. 

 

The interesting concept behind these markets, be it stocks or currency etc is that at any given moment, the price represents a point where buyer meets seller and that determines the value. If more money is wanting to either buy or sell, then the market will tip in that direction.

 

It is not in the least unusual that so called experts will disagree on the future direction. 

 

hope that helps.

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Ask the financial forecasts from 2 different financial gurus and you will have 3 different predictions!!

 

Welcome to the russian roulette world of finance predictions!

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BANGKOK 20 February 2018 00:35
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